Time for stalling past as climate predictions dramatically worsen

Posted on 28 September 2009    
Roots are collected for food in drought stricken countries. Madagascar.
Roots are collected for food in drought stricken countries. Madagascar.
© WWF / John E. NEWBY
Oxford, UK:  Climate negotiators received a hurry up call today as scientists released new predictions that climate change was happening significantly faster than previous estimates.

The UK's prestigious Met Office Hadley Centre warned that it was "not implausible" that without effective action to cut greenhouse gas emissions, average global temperatures could rise more than four degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels by 2060 - more than twice the two degree threshold for unacceptable risks of runaway catastrophic climate change.

WWF-UK Director of Campaigns David Norman told the UK Press Association that "Yet again, the over-riding message from the scientists is abundantly clear - climate change is real, it's happening faster than previously anticipated and the implications for both people and the environment are potentially severe.

"Politicians have already pledged to keep the world below a 2 degree temperature rise, but the window of opportunity to make this more than an empty promise is rapidly closing."

"The time for stalling has long since passed," Norman said.

Climate negotiators are currently gathering in Bangkok, Thailand, to continue work towards a new global climate agreement scheduled to be agreed in Copenhagen in December, to replace the expiring - and clearly inadequate - Kyoto protocol.

The new Hadley Centre study updates the 2007 climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), noting that IPCC worst case projections are now a real possibility within many peoples' lifetimes.

Worse case predictions are now a real possibility

Consequences of a four degree rise in average global temperatures could include regional variations of temperature of more than 10 degrees C in some areas, with rises of more than 15 degrees in the already seriously affected Arctic.

Drastic reductions in rainfall are expected for many areas under such a scenario while other areas will see increased rainfall and flooding events.

Feedbacks in the climate system - the study raised possibilities of warming oceans absorbing less carbon dioxide and soil carbon being released as decomposition rates rise - could drive ever accelerating climate change.

A spokesman for the Department for Energy and Climate Change (Decc) told the Press Association that "A rise of this scale would have serious consequences for the global community with food security, water availability and health all being adversely affected.

"This report illustrates why it is imperative for the world to reach an ambitious climate deal at Copenhagen which keeps the global temperature increase to below 2 degrees." 
Roots are collected for food in drought stricken countries. Madagascar.
Roots are collected for food in drought stricken countries. Madagascar.
© WWF / John E. NEWBY Enlarge

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