Overview

Mobility is already changing in response to evolving demographics, consumer preferences, new business models, connectedness, technology, alternative fuels, and policy. Future changes are anticipated but there is great uncertainty about the pace of change and which mobility options will be adopted. This MIT study, Mobility of the Future, will explore these possibilities and examine how complex interactions between engine technology options, fuel options, refueling infrastructure, consumer choice, public transit options, new transportation modalities, and government policy might shape the future landscape for mobility. The study will provide guidance to industry stakeholders seeking to navigate the significant changes that lie ahead.

A potential major driver of change is public policy related to climate change and environmental concerns. Among all the primary energy use sectors (electricity, transportation, industry, and buildings), transportation is the most challenging sector to decarbonize. Nevertheless, there are substantial opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil-fuel consumption in the transportation sector. Many combinations of higher efficiency vehicles, advanced engines, new fuels, and new modes of transport will be possible in the decades ahead.

Several questions frame this study:

• What combination of fuels, vehicles, and technologies will consumers select over the coming decades?
• How will the vehicle fleet and fuel mix evolve in response to various carbon policy scenarios?
• What are the critical factors that drive uncertainty in future mobility and what are their sensitivities?
• Which combination of future mobility options offers the best insurance against key uncertainties?

MIT already has extensive research activities underway in the many dimensions of mobility. For this study, an interdisciplinary project team will synthesize these different areas of research within a system dynamics framework. The study team will bring together economists, engineers, computer scientists, social scientists, and urban planners to cover all aspects of this complex subject.

To conduct the study, MIT will also convene and partner with a diverse consortium composed of leading international companies. Consortium members will help define the project scope and the scenarios to be explored and will engage regularly with researchers throughout the three-year study time period.

An Integrated Approach to Analyzing Future Mobility

Most existing studies on the future of transportation focus on supply-side alternatives for improving vehicle/engine performance and reducing emissions. The MIT study will combine supply- and demand-side modeling to explore future mobility options in an integrated fashion. The study team will exploit the best analytical tools and models to represent each subsystem within the mobility space. Our strategy is to avoid creating a direct interface between these detailed models and the computational burden this would entail. Instead we propose to use the detailed models to generate reduced model surrogates of each subsystem. The surrogate models will be combined in a system dynamics model that incorporates all aspects of vehicle drivetrain options, fuels, consumer preferences, provider business models, and demographics as shown in Figure 1. To complement the system dynamics model, the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) tool will be used to conduct an analysis that covers all regions of the world and all sectors of the global economy. The two models will be used in concert with one another.

Figure 1: Integrated Approach for Systems Analysis

MIT developed the system dynamics modeling methodology and has successfully applied it to many systems with complex feedback loops. To illustrate the kinds of outputs that can be generated using this methodology, Figure 2 shows results for one example scenario indicating how new drivetrain adoption and fleet composition might evolve over a 50-year timeframe (to 2050).

Figure 2: Example output from System Dynamics model

Consumer Choice

We plan to collect data on consumers’ revealed preferences regarding mobility, as well as data on context-specific stated preferences using MIT’s Future Mobility Sensing (FMS) platform. The FMS tool has already been used to conduct surveys regarding electric vehicles in Singapore. It can be used to gather information on what people currently do for mobility and what they would do given future options.

There are two major components to the consumer choice analysis: purchase decisions and usage decisions. In purchase decisions, consumers consider whether to purchase a vehicle, what type of vehicle to purchase, and what features to include. In usage decisions, consumers select which mode of transport to use. The study team will model usage decisions to estimate how much consumers will use private vehicles, carsharing services, car hailing, ride sharing, jitney, public transit, and other alternatives.

Vehicles/Drivetrains

Vehicle manufacturers have had a long and successful track record in improving the cost, reliability, and performance of traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) technology. Under all scenarios, ICE vehicles are expected to benefit from further enhancements that improve performance and efficiency. Many alternative drivetrain vehicles have already been developed, but their market share at present is still dwarfed by that of ICE vehicles. Each of these alternative drivetrain vehicles currently suffers from a cost premium relative to ICE vehicles. The question is which type of engine technology and vehicle will be preferred in future scenarios where government policy alters the purchase decisions of consumers.

The MIT study will consider the following vehicle drivetrains:

• Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with enhancements such as turbocharging and gasoline compression ignition
• Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)
• Plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs)
• Battery electric vehicles (BEVs)
• Fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs)
• Compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles

Fuels

A wide range of options exists for producing transportation fuels and there are many metrics to consider when assessing the merits of these options relative to traditional petroleum-based fuels. These metrics include:

• Cost
• Life cycle emissions
• Energy density
• Compatibility with the existing transportation fleet and the existing distribution systems
• Performance synergy with new types of internal combustion engines

The MIT mobility study will include a detailed assessment of these metrics for the major alternative fuel candidates. Some of these fuels, organized by type, are listed below:

Drop-in Fuels

• Gas-to-liquids
• Coal-to-liquids
• Biomass-to-liquids
• Hybrids of the above

Alcohols as Blendstocks

• Corn ethanol
• Cellulosic ethanol
• Higher alcohols
• Methanol

Gas Fuels

• Natural gas
• Propane
• Dimethyl Ether
• Hydrogen

Electricity

Barriers to New Propulsion Technologies and Fuels

Although there are many engine and fuel combinations that have potential advantages over the current conventional combination (ICE running on petroleum-based fuel), the barriers to innovation and change are often prohibitive. They also come in many forms. One frequent barrier is the highly interdependent relationship between engine technologies and fuels, which can make it difficult to introduce new vehicle technologies before the complementary fuel production and delivery infrastructure is in place. In addition, vehicles and fuels are regulated by a long list of government agencies concerned with the environment, energy consumption, and consumer safety. Altogether, billions of dollars have been invested in existing automobile manufacturing plants, fuel production facilities, and fuel distribution systems. The scale of this investment in existing systems and regulations creates enormous inertia. Uncertainty about future policies and regulations can create another significant barrier to innovation. The MIT study will highlight barriers that appear likely to slow or prevent beneficial innovation and outcomes.

Built Environment and Public Transit

The built environment has a tremendous impact on mobility especially in cities around the world. Subway systems in some megacities currently serve more than half of all commuter travel. With current trends in urbanization and the continued growth of megacities, the influence of the built environment on mobility preferences is expected to expand in the decades ahead. Public transit and the built environment will therefore be a key part of the analytical framework for this study. The consumer choice model will account for various modes of travel as well as mixed modes, such as trips that combine travel in a light-duty vehicle with use of public transportation. In particular, our analytical framework will explore the combined impact of rising income levels and greater urbanization on mobility patterns in future megacities.

New Business Models for Delivering Mobility

MIT’s Mobility of the Future study will also examine emerging business models for mobility and their implications, including options such as carsharing, car hailing, ride sharing, as well as potentially significant technology developments such as modern jitneys, various levels of vehicle autonomy, the use of big data in transportation applications, and intelligent traffic control systems.

The American model for mobility has long been dominated by private car ownership: in the United States today there are more than 800 vehicles per 1000 people. Alternative business approaches to providing mobility could disrupt this model in the United States and in growth markets across the globe. This study will examine and model different business approaches to delivering mobility and the tradeoffs that exist between private car ownership versus carsharing, car hailing, and alternative modalities. Our modeling effort will account for demographics and for the impact of trends in family size, age, and income on mobility decisions.

Information Technology

New applications of information technology and big data in the context of highly connected mobility systems could have a huge impact on how people choose to travel in the future, potentially bringing dramatic changes in congestion and efficiency and increasing miles traveled as well as demand for various transportation services. The most challenging questions in this area concern the levels of vehicle autonomy that will be practical in the decades ahead and how these autonomous vehicle technologies will be deployed.

Public Policy

Governments have implemented a wide range of policies in recent decades to reduce transportation-related fuel consumption and emissions and to manage congestion. These policies fall into three major categories: price-based, regulatory, and research and development. Concerns about climate change, criteria pollutants, and energy security are expected to prompt the implementation of additional measures in the years ahead.

This study will project market responses to various government policies for climate change mitigation. It will not make recommendations concerning carbon policy or the implementation of carbon policy. We explore various policy measures to understand how businesses and consumers might respond to the most likely carbon mitigation scenarios, and specifically which fuels, drivetrain technologies, and mobility business models will win market share.

Joining the Consortium

The Mobility of the Future study is structured to include a key role for a consortium of corporate members. The consortium will provide valuable industry and business knowledge to inform the analysis, as well as financial support. We anticipate that the study will take three years to complete, starting with a launch date in April 2016. Consortium members will be invited to participate in all workshops and Advisory Committee meetings. Through the Advisory Committee, consortium members will help shape research questions, develop scenarios, and identify critical issues and constraints.

Consortium Membership Fees: $125,000 per year for three years

Membership in the Mobility of the Future consortium is open to both existing MITEI members and non-members. Existing MITEI members may choose to allocate a portion of their education program funds to cover the membership fee. These funds will support students and/or postdocs in performing research and analysis for the study.

Consortium Deliverables

Members of the consortium will participate in bi-annual Advisory Committee meetings to provide guidance and input to the study team. In addition, the study team will organize four workshops for consortium members on specific topics relevant to its research. The systems dynamics model developed as part of the study will be accessible for use by the consortium members. Consortium members will have an opportunity to review and provide feedback on the Mobility of the Future report itself and the final version will be made available to members in paper and electronic format.

For additional information or to join the consortium, please contact:

Randall Field
Executive Director, Research Conversion Program
Email: rpfield@mit.edu
Telephone: +1.617.324.2391