August 25th, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets rose to first place with $43.8 million on 12,049 screens in 55 markets for totals of $327.20 million internationally and $674.03 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Russia with $9.92 million in 1,284 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.24 million, including previews.
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August 21st, 2016
Three even-matched debutants proved to be no match for the incumbents at the box office this weekend, with Suicide Squad taking a third straight victory at the box office with $20.71 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. Sausage Party stays in second with $15.3 million, and that leaves the new entrants in 3rd, 4th and 5th. This was a weekend where diversity isn’t the problem, but novelty is.
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August 18th, 2016
Summer is over, at least as far as the box office is concerned. There are three films opening wide and another expanding wide-ish, but none of them are expected to crack $20 million over the weekend. War Dogs should come the closest, but even then, it is only aiming at the midteens. Kubo and the Two Strings is the best of the new releases, but recent history isn’t kind to stop-motion animated films. The final wide release of the week is Ben-Hur. This film cost nearly $100 million to make and it is expected to bomb spectacularly. Hell or High Water is expected to expand semi-wide, perhaps wide enough to score a spot in the top ten. Suicide Squad will likely win the box office race, but this has less to do with the film’s strength and more to do with the weak competition. Speaking of weak competition, this weekend last year, Straight Outta Compton earned more than all three wide releases combined. 2016 won’t be able to match it at the top of the chart, but there’s much better depth this year than last year, so 2016 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 17th, 2016
Suicide Squad saw its numbers fall dramatically, but still held onto top spot on the international chart with $58.7 million in 62 markets. The film’s totals rose to $242.5 million internationally and $465.1 million worldwide. The film’s two biggest new markets were Argentina, where it earned $2.5 million, and Italy, where it pulled in $2.15 million. Its best holdover was the U.K., where it remained in first place despite falling 62% to $5.52 million in 587 theaters for a two-week total of $28.90 million. At this pace, the film will be over $500 million worldwide before the weekend, while it is on track for $750 million worldwide in total. That should be enough to break even before its home market run.
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August 16th, 2016
Hell or High Water led the way on the Theater Average Chart with an average of $19,417 in 32 theaters. The studio was hoping for only half of that, so this is a fantastic start. The biggest new release of the week, Sausage Party, was next with an average of $11,042, while the overall number one film, Suicide Squad, was right behind with $10,232.
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August 16th, 2016
The overall box office was a little weaker than expected with Suicide Squad falling nearly as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did. On the other hand, Sausage Party opened better than expected earning a solid second place. Overall, the box office pulled in $172 million over the weekend, which is 25% smaller than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 16% higher and that’s the most important number. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $7.43 billion, putting it 5.3% ahead of last year’s pace. The box office just needs to maintain its $380 million lead throughout the rest of the summer to be considered a success.
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August 14th, 2016
A precipitous drop from last weekend won’t be enough to knock Suicide Squad off its perch at the top of the box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Friday. But a 67% fall is steep, even by modern standards. On the bright side, it is less than Batman v Superman’s 69% decline in its second weekend earlier this year, at least according to the estimates. A weak Sunday would put the two films basically neck-and-neck on that front, and it looks increasingly likely that Suicide Squad will end with less than $300 million domestically.
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August 11th, 2016
Before we talk about the weekend predictions... If you can read this, it means my transfer worked well enough and I can do work from my parents house while pet-sitting. I will be at my parents place for three weeks looking after their dog and cat. I was at their house for less than 30 minutes before stepping into a puddle of dog drool. It is going to be a very long three weeks. ... As for the releases for the week, they are all amazing. The film earning the weakest reviews at the moment is Sausage Party, which is earning 82% positive reviews. 82% positive is the weakest of the three wide releases. That's amazing. On the other hand, it won't be the biggest release of the week. Pete’s Dragon has a better than 50/50 chance at reaching $100 million in total; however, as a family film, it will start relatively slow, but have good legs. Finally, there’s Florence Foster Jenkins, which is an early Oscar contender. It is not opening in a lot of theaters, so it is going to need great word-of-mouth to thrive. None of these new releases will match last year’s number one film, Straight Outta Compton, so it will be up to Suicide Squad to keep 2016 on the winning track. I think it will collapse by more than 60%, but 2016 has a lot better depth than 2015 and it will come out on top.
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August 10th, 2016
As expected, Suicide Squad easily won the international box office race pulling in $132 million in 57 markets. However, its results in individual markets were mixed when compared to its domestic opening, as well as when compared to Batman v Superman. For example, the film earned first place in Russia with $11.42 million over the weekend, while BvS opened with $7.84 million. It is also a little better than its debut here, given the size of the two markets, and the slumping rubles. On the other hand, the film managed $13.9 million in the U.K., compared to BvS’s opening of $20.66 million. Likewise, a $13.9 million opening in the U.K. is equivalent to about $90 million here, which is much less than its debut here. That’s still a huge opening, but not a monster opening. BvS finished with over $500 million internationally; if Suicide Squad finishes with just under $400 million internationally, it will break even, so the studio can’t be too upset. They could yell, “Damn the critics, full speed ahead.” and let the D.C. Extended Universe turn into another Transformers. Hit after hit, but critically reviled.
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August 10th, 2016
The winners of our Live or Die contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Suicide Squad opening weekend were...
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August 9th, 2016
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Operation Chromite, the South Korean war movie, opened on first place on the theater average chart with $31,662. This put it just ahead of the overall box office champion, Suicide Squad, which earned an average of $31,418. Little Men was next with an average of $15,184 in two theaters. The re-release of Elevator to the Gallows was close behind with $14,334 in its lone theater. The final film in the $10,000 club was Equity, with an average of $13,629 in four theaters during its second weekend of release.
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August 9th, 2016
Overall, the weekend lived up to expectations, with Suicide Squad doing a little better than expected at the expense of some of its competition. For example, Jason Bourne had one of the worst sophomore stint declines of the summer. The overall box office rose 20% from last weekend hitting $229 million. Suicide Squad earned more this weekend than the entire box office earned this weekend last year, so it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year growth was stunning at 73%. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 grow by more than $100 million hitting 5.3% at $7.16 billion to $6.80 billion.
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August 7th, 2016
One of the most talked-about debuts of the year is shaping up to be one of the better ones. Suicide Squad will open with about $135 million, according to Warner Bros., easily the biggest weekend in August, beating Guardians of the Galaxy’s $94.3 million in 2014. It’s also the 3rd-best weekend in 2016, and should earn a little more than Deadpool’s $132 million debut. In spite of these awesome stats, there’s about as much negative press for the film as positive, and some of it not entirely fair.
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August 4th, 2016
Before we talk about the weekend predictions... Warner Bros. owns D.C. Comics and a 30% share in Rotten Tomatoes. So accusing Rotten Tomatoes of having an anti-D.C. bias is silly. Starting a petition to shut down Rotten Tomatoes is a sign you really need a more productive hobby. I suggest Magic: The Gathering. ... Moving on... Suicide Squad is the last major release of the summer. Unfortunately, its reviews are among the worst of any $100 million movie released this summer. The counter-programming this week is Nine Lives, a talking animal / body swap movie that still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Many analysts think it will fail to reach the top five during its opening weekend. This weekend last year was the weekend Fantastic Four opened. Suicide Squad should crush that movie at the box office. In fact, it should earn more than the top ten earned last year.
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August 4th, 2016
The winners of our Bourne Free contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jason Bourne opening weekend were...
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August 1st, 2016
July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 29th, 2016
Next week is the first week of August and only two wide releases are coming out: Nine Lives and Suicide Squad. ... It is not going to be a competitive weekend at the box office. There are many who think Suicide Squad will earn well over $100 million during its opening weekend, so there’s little doubt it should be the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Suicide Squad.
The main prize this week is a John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle that includes five Blu-rays, plus a Digital Download Code. The bundle is lead by I Am Wrath (Blu-ray Combo Pack), as well as The Forger (Blu-ray); From Paris With Love (Blu-ray); The Punisher (Blu-ray); Pulp Fiction (Blu-ray); and She’s So Lovely (Digital Downloads).
To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle.
To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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