Now ‘too close to call’ in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria

In NSW the Baird Government has now lost its strong lead: L-NP 50.5% (down 3%) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 3%) and in WA the Mark McGowan-led ALP Opposition now has the lead heading towards next year’s WA State Election: ALP 51% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 49% (down 2%).

In Victoria support for the Andrews Government is virtually unchanged with two-party support: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% while in Queensland support for the ALP 50% (unchanged) is level with the L-NP 50% (unchanged). This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted in August with a representative cross-section of  5,490 Australian electors.

NEW SOUTH WALES: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 50.5% (down 3% since May 20-22, 2016) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 3%).

Primary vote: L-NP 39% (down 7%), ALP 30.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 13% (down 4%), One Nation 6% (up 6%), Christian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 9% (up 3.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 56% (down 6%) cf. Mr. Foley 44% (up 6%); Lead to Mr. Baird 12% (down 12%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 8.9% (down 2.3% since March-April 2016) and under-employment is 7.8% (up 0.5%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 16.7% (down 1.8%). (Interviewed June-July 2016).

New South Wales State Election is due to be held in March 2019.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 51% (up 2% since May 20-22, 2016) cf. L-NP 49% (down 2%).

Primary vote: Liberal 34.5% (down 2%), WA Nationals 6.5% (down 0.5%), ALP 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 12.5% (unchanged), One Nation 5% (up 5%), Christians 2% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 4% (down 3.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP):
Mr. McGowan 57% (down 3.5%) cf. Mr. Barnett 43% (up 3.5%); Lead to Mr McGowan 14% (down 7%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 10.1% (up 2.4% since February-April 2016) and under-employment is 6.7% (down 2.8%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.8% (down 0.4%). (Interviewed May-July 2016).

Western Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2017.

QUEENSLAND: ALP would win close election

2PP: ALP 50% (unchanged since May 20-22, 2016) cf. LNP 50% (unchanged). Female electors: ALP 51% (down 2%) cf. L-NP 49% (up 2%). Male electors: LNP 51.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 48.5% (up 1.5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 38.5% (down 2%), ALP 36.5% (up 1%), Greens 9.5% (down 1%), One Nation 8.5% (up 8.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2.5% (down 2%), Family First 1% (down 0.5%), Independents/ Others 3.5% (down 4%). Female electors: ALP 37% (down 3.5%), LNP 37% (down 2%), Greens 11% (up 2%), One Nation 8.5% (up 8.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2% (down 2.5%), Family First 1% (down 0.5%), Independents/ Others 3.5% (down 2%). Male electors: LNP 40.5% (down 2%), ALP 35.5% (up 5.5%), Greens 8.5% (down 3.5%), One Nation 8% (up 8%), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (down 1%), Family First 1% (down 1%), Independents/ Others 3% (down 6%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Tim Nicholls (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 58% (up 0.5%) cf. Mr. Nicholls 42% (down 0.5%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 16% (up 1%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 63% (down 1%) cf. Mr. Nicholls 37% (up 1%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk  26% (down 2%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 52.5% (up 2%) cf. Mr. Nicholls 47.5% (down 2%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 5% (up 4%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 11.5% (down 0.2% since March-April 2016) and under-employment is 10.1% (up 1.5%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 21.6% (up 1.3%). (Interviewed June-July 2016).

Queensland State Election is due to be held in early 2018.

VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election comfortably

2PP: ALP 55.5% (down 0.5% since May 20-22, 2016) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 0.5%).

Primary vote: ALP 37% (down 3.5%), L-NP 36% (down 2%), Greens 13.5% (up 0.5%), Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 7% (up 7%), Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 5% (down 2.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal):
Mr. Andrews 59% (down 4.5%) cf. Mr. Guy 41% (up 4.5%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 18% (down 9%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 9.7% (down 0.6% since March-April 2016) and under-employment is 8.3% (up 0.8%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 18.0% (up 0.2%). (Interviewed  June-July 2016).

Victorian State Election is due to be held in November 2018.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA: L-NP would win election

2PP: L-NP 55% (up 3% since May 20-22, 2016) cf. ALP 45% (down 3%).

Primary vote: L-NP 37% (up 6%), ALP 24.5% (down 1%), Xenophon 21% (down 7%), Greens 9.5% (up  1.5%), Family First 5.5% (up 0.5%), and Independents/ Others 2.5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steven Marshall (Liberal):
Mr. Weatherill 50% (down 5%) cf. Mr. Marshall 50% (up 5%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 0% (down 10%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 13.2% (up 2.4% since February-April 2016) and under-employment is 9.5% (up 0.4%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 22.7% (up 2.8%). (Interviewed May-July 2016).

South Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2018

TASMANIA: ALP would win Election

2PP: ALP 54% (up 2% since May 20-22, 2016) cf. Liberals 46% (down 2%). Estimate: 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 37.5% (down 3.5%), ALP 36% (up 1.5%), Greens 15.5% (down 1.5%), Jacqui Lambie Network 6% (up 6%) and Independents/ Others 5% (down 2.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 57.5% (up 1%) cf. Mr. Green 42.5% (down 1%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 15% (up 2%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 12.2% (up 0.5% since February-April 2016) and under-employment is 11.2% (up 0.5%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 23.4% (up 1%). (Interviewed May-July 2016).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted Australia-wide in August shows a clear tightening of support in New South Wales after Premier Mike Baird’s contentious council amalgmations program in May and the controversial decision to close down the entire NSW greyhound industry in mid-July. Baird’s L-NP Government 50.5% (down 3% since May) is now only in front of the Opposition ALP 49.5% (up 3%) by a ‘smidgin’ on a two-party preferred basis.

“In addition, Baird’s personal popularity has taken a further fall with Baird now only Australia’s fourth most popular State Premier: Mike Baird 56% (down 6%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 44% (up 6%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“In Western Australia which is the next State to vote in a State Election (due in March 2017), the ALP Opposition 51% (up 2%) now has a narrow lead over Premier Colin Barnett’s L-NP Government 49% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis, however. Despite a small fall in personal support Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 57.5% (down 3.5%) is clearly still preferred to Premier Colin Barnett 42.5% (up 3.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“In Victoria despite recent controversies about the ALP Government’s policies regarding the Country Fire Authority (CFA), the ALP 55.5% (down 0.5%) maintains a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP 44.5% (up 0.5%). However, Premier Daniel Andrews has taken a hit to his personal support in recent months as ‘Better Premier’: Daniel Andrews 59% (down 4.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 41% (up 4.5%).

“After his successful election to the Australian Senate, former broadcaster and television personality Derryn Hinch has attracted a fair amount of support in Victoria – 7% of Victorians now say they would support Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party at a Victorian State Election.

“There is little change in Queensland over the past few months with the ALP 50% (unchanged) still dead-level with the Opposition LNP 50% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. In addition, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk 58% (up 0.5%) has a largely unchanged lead over Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls 42% (down 0.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“In South Australia it appears the successful performance of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) at the recent Federal Election may have dented NXT’s credibility as true political ‘outsiders’ – support for NXT dropped to 21% (down 7%) in August. However, despite losing a seat to NXT at the recent Federal Election the South Australian L-NP 55% (up 3%) now hold a strong lead over the ALP Government 45% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, electors are divided on which leader they prefer as ‘Better Premier’ with South Australian Premier Jay Weatheri 50% (down 5%) level with Liberal Party Opposition Leader Steven Marshall 50% (up 5%).

“In Tasmania the ALP Opposition 54% (up 2%) has increased it’s lead over the L-NP Government 46% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis although Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 57.5% (up 1%) is now clearly preferred to ALP Opposition Leader Bryan Green 42.5% (down 1%) as ‘Better Premier’. Re-elected Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie’s new party is now polling at 6% in Tasmania.”

For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between August 19-22, 2016 with a cross-section of 5,490 Australian electors including 1,360 New South Wales electors, 1,231 Victorian electors, 858 Queensland electors, 806 Westralian electors, 553 South Australian electors and 321 Tasmanian electors.

For further information: