US Hands Over Manas to Kyrgyzstan

In a ceremony today, the US handed over to Kyrgyzstan the US-run Manas Transit Center; which has been used as a logistical and staging base for the war in Afghanistan. Last year, the Kyrgyz Parliament, pressured by Russia,ave the US until this summer to withdraw. drawdown in Afghanistan means that Manas is less critical to the US effort, but the handover reflects Russia's increasing influence in former Soviet states.

Clinton: We'll Reconsider Manas Air Base Role in 2014

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, visiting the Manas Air Base in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, has indicated that the US presence on the base will be reconsidered once US forces disengage from Afghanistan in 2014, as they hope to do. She indicated that a key jet fuel contract would go to a Kyrgyz company, obviously a sweetener for keeping the base, which has been a real bargaining chip between the US and Russia and Kyrgyzstan, where internal dynamics and foreign politics have kept the fate of Manas, a key logistical support base for the Afghan War, in play.

Among her comments:

Well, it is great to see all of you here and thanks for letting me come by and say thank you. Colonel, thanks for those kind words and it’s a great opportunity – I can see some Christmas decorations already going up back there – to express to you our appreciation for what you do every single day on behalf of our country. I just had some good visits with the president [Roza Otunbayeva, shown in pic above left with Clinton] and other officials of the government here, and then I just had the opportunity to meet with a large group of students and take a lot of questions about the United States, about our policies, about this air base, and to tell the people of Kyrgyzstan that we are going to support them as they try to establish a democratic state.

This has been a challenging year for them, and the United States has been with them, providing humanitarian assistance and other support, and we will continue to do so. They live in a region where there is not very much democracy, as you know. And part of our strong belief is that the United States has demonstrated conclusively that a democratic system that establishes the rule of law, that respects diversity, that gives people a chance to live their dreams, is by far the better system for anybody. It doesn’t matter where your country is or who you are or what your background might be.

And that’s part of the reason why you’re here. I want to thank the men and women of the 376th Air Expeditionary Wing. I want to thank all of our soldiers, sailors, Marines, and airmen who are in transit to or from Afghanistan. We greatly appreciate what you’re doing. We think it is of critical benefit to advance the interests and the security of the United States, but also of countries like Kyrgyzstan and this region as well.

Some Thoughts on Kyrgyzstan after 48 Hours

I don't intend to rush to judgment on the Kyrgyz revolution/revolt/civil war/coup d'etat/whatever after only 48 hours, but I think a few conclusions can be drawn, tentatively and assuming the provisional government holds on to power:

1. While the US keeps saying it doesn't see this as an anti-American change, Russia does seem to see it as a pro-Russian one. Russia was the first country to recognize the new government, whereas during the Tulip Revolution of 2005, it denounced the ouster of President Akayev as illegitimate. In fact, this is the first of the various color revolutions in the ex-Soviet space (Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan 2005) that Russia has applauded rather than denounced.
2. That may not augur well for the future of Manas. (Kyrgyzstan is unique I think in that it hosts both an American and a Russian air base.) Bakiyev was going to oust Manas last year after a major Russian loan to Kyrgyzstan, but then when the US tripled the rent, he kept both bases. Now there's talk of revisiting the agreements and possibly shortening the lease, though everything is still up in the air.
3. Rome may not have been built in a day, but Bishkek fell in a day. From the outbreak of violence to the flight of Bakiyev from his capital was a sharp, violent day, though tensions had been building for a while. In fact, the Iranian opposition is already looking at the contrasts between their frustrated protests and Kyrgyzstan's remarkably successful ones.
4. The lingering tensions between the north (where the provisional government is most popular) and the south (Bakiyev's home base) also emphasize the geopolitical oddity that results from Kyrgyzstan's odd shape. As the map shows, the Ferghana Valley, the rich river valley famous in classical Islamic history, is divided among three countries: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and the Uzbek and Tajik portions cut deep into western Kyrgyzstan, separating the north from the south. When tensions lead to border closings (and all three countries have had bouts of instability), communications between northern and southern Kyrgyzstan are disrupted. It's a relic of Soviet divide-and-rule gerrymandering combined with the fact that Uzbeks and Tajiks do live in the Ferghana valley as well as Kyrgyz. But when regional tensions are high, as they are right now, the geography is an exacerbating factor.
5. Let's not rush to jump to conclusions. Shots were still being heard in Bishkek I understand, and who controls what is still far from clear. Folks who don't know the country — and I definitely include myself — shouldn't be too quick to assume they understand the narrative. After the weekend it may make more sense.

Oh, and discussing the Ferghana Valley reminded me that my post of Wednesday on Kyrgyzstan news resources neglected one important one: the English pages of the website ferghana.ru. (Also available in Russian and Uzbek if you're able.)

Update on Manas

The US has said that flights from Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan have been temporarily suspended; Acting Prime Minister Otunbayeva has said that the base can remain open though some issues will be looked at anew; more on the subject here; the Pentagon press release here; the Manas Transit Center's website is here.

Meanwhile, of course, we have an unstable situation with Bakiyev in the south claiming he's still President; a new government in Bishkek (in the north); and an uncertain situation in between. Stay tuned.

Kyrgyzstan News Resources and Videos

I am not a Central Asianist, but given the importance of Kyrgyzstan to the US (due to Manas, Manas, and Manas, but mostly Manas), I thought I'd offer a few useful links for those looking for background or current news updates on what seems to have been another ex-Soviet "color revolution" (their last one was Tulip: what will this one be?):

• Eurasianet.org's Kyrgyzstan headlines page is a good aggregator;
  
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty covers it at their main site and with Kyrgyz news collected here;
  
• The Registan group blog, which concentrates on Central Asia; note particularly this post on how the Internet has been more central to this upheaval than to the "Tulip Revolution" in 2005.
• The Russian English-language news RT (Russia Today) is following events there; their YouTube channel is here;
  
• The BBC of course;
• Voice of America's Asia coverage;
• On Twitter, #Kyrgyzstan, #kyrgyzstan, #kyrgyz, and #bishkek all seem pretty active.

Some video reports. Al-Jazeera English is reporting that President Bakiyev has left Bishkek and has "relocated" to Osh, his power base:



Two English language news reports with dramatic video from RT's YouTube channel:

Bakiyev Toppled in Kyrgyzstan?

There are reports that President Bakiev (Bakiyev) has fled Bishkek after several days of protests; opposition leader former Foreign Minister Roza Otumbayeva is reportedly claiming to be in charge of a provisional government.

Given the fact that the US use of the base at Manas has been critical to the Afghan war, instability in Kyrgyzstan could prove important. More as the situation clarifies.

Manas Airbase Extension

Remember how the Kyrgyz government had ordered the US out of Manas Airbase in Bishkek? Earlier postings on the subject are here. Back in February Parliament voted 78-1 against the base and gave us six months to leave.

Well, never mind. Last Thursday the Kyrgyz Parliament ratified a new extension agreement, which still needs to be signed by the President.

Oh, yes: the US payment has gone from $17.4 million a year to $60 million a year. I guess that tells us what this dispute was really about all along.

The Vote on Manas

Despite reports suggesting the issue might be delayed, the Kyrgyzstan Parliament has voted 78-1 to close the Manas Air Base. The US will have six months to withdraw under the terms of the basing agreement.

The US is understood to be exploring possible agreements with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan for logistial support for the Afghan War. The US withdrew previous facilities in Uzbekistan to protest an internal Uzbek crackdown. Russia is perceived as having pressured Kyrgyzstan to close the base, despite Russian concerns about radical Islamic movements on its southern borders.

Expect a lot of maneuvering in the wake of this move: there are already complaints in the US about prospects for renewed cooperation with the Uzbek regime.

The Manas Story Continues to Develop

The behind-the-scenes maneuvering over the Manas Air Base (earlier postings here) gets another twist: a Kyrgyz politician not only says that the US may well stay at Manas, but adds that the issue will be worked out between Washington and Moscow, not Washington and Bishkek.

Ah, the Great Game's afoot again. Lord Curzon would be impressed. Russia seems to have shown its power here by pressuring Kyrgyzstan, but then perhaps realized that undercutting US operations in Afghanistan is not exactly in Russia's long-term interest if it helps the Taliban, so now Russia is going to deal directly, as the regional great power, with the US. At least that's one possible reading. As I've noted before, Manas is a critical logistical support base for the Afghan operation, especially with growing pressures on the land supply routes through Pakistan. The message is clear: if you want to play in Russia's back yard, work it out with Russia directly. At least that's what this story seems to suggest.

Manas Air Base: Is the Suq Open for Business?

Hmm...It seems the Kyrgyz Parliament may not vote on kicking the US out of Manas Air Base until April. That suggests to me that the suq is open for bargaining, and the US may be able to raise the bidding.

For earlier background on the threatened base closing, see this post.

Kyrgyz Threat to US Base at Manas

It looks like the "Great Game" in Central Asia may be on again. Suddenly over the past couple of days the President and Parliament of Kyrgyzstan have begun moves aimed at eliminating the US Air Base at Manas near the capital of Bishkek. Manas is a key logistical support base for US operations in Afghanistan, and the threat of losing it could have a profound impact on US and NATO operations there.

For more on Manas consult the air base's own home page here, and/or the Wikipedia write-up here.

The move seems to be a reaction to Russian efforts to oust the US from Kyrgyzstan and may be an attempt to play the US against Russia; an account by a Central Asia-watching website here gives some of the political background.

This definitely bears watching. Loss of Manas, coupled with ongoing uncertaities in Pakistan and a drawdown in Iraq, could pose real challenges to US intentions to ramp up operations in Afghanistan. Military pros have always said "Amateurs talk about strategy; professionals talk about logistics," and Manas is a major player in the logistical tail for the Afghan operation.