Let’s face it, Memorial Day weekend has pretty much been a dud in recent times.
Last year, 20th Century Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse underperformed to $79.8 million over four days, but Disney has really been hit hard over the four-day holiday with such expensive bombs as Alice Through The Looking Glass ($33.5M four-day, $77M domestic), Tomorrowland ($42.7M 4-day, $93M domestic) and Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time ($37.8M 4-day, $90.7M domestic).
This year howver the tables will turn for both the studio and for Johnny Depp, the latter who has weathered his own set of box office misfortunes in recent years with The Lone Ranger, Looking Glass, and Mortdecai. Per tracking this morning, Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales could rake in as much as $100M over four days and as low as $90M.
Disney showed off Dead Men Tell No Tales at CinemaCon to positive results. Again, this far out, the disclaimer here is that these results could vary up or down.
Pirates isn’t standing alone over the holiday stretch, because Paramount has its R-rated feature version of Baywatch with Dwayne Johnson and Zac Efron, which is expecting $45M-$50M over five days (it opens officially on Thursday).
Overall, it’s a female-charged weekend according to tracking. Dead Men Tell No Tales is strongest among females, though we know Disney always pulls in a four-quad on these movies, while Baywatch is muscular with those women under 25.
Disney’s Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World’s End, the third in the franchise, has held the Memorial Day four-day opening record over the past 10 years with $139.8M. Pic ended its run at $309.4M stateside. The last Pirates movie though, On Stranger Tides, released in 2011, opened in mid-May drawing $90.1M over three days and a final of $241M. That was the second Pirates movie to click past $1 billion globally after 2006’s Dead Man’s Chest. Across four movies, the Pirates franchise has rang up more than $3.7 billion for Disney at the global B.O.
Hope it does well!
Pirates 5 should make $110M + and Baywatch around $60M.
Baywatch will make more money Memorial Day weekend, you heard it here first!
Disney California Adventure has been running a ten-minute sneak peek of Pirates, and if what they are showing is any indication of the quality of the entire film, it will easily make $100M.
Disney could pull off a huge magic trick 4 billion dollar movie in a row..Rogue,beauty,guardians and pirates..I think pirates will do better maybe around 120 for the 4 day and 250 domestic.Worldwide 1.2 billion because of China
There was a Disneynature film in there. Can’t leave that out and count Lucasfilm/Marvel.
This will under perform almost all Disney tentpoles. Plus, it has a huge budget with additional advertising/publicity dollars added.
Let me know when it passes 600 million globally, and only then, it might turn to profit.
It’ll depend on how well both are received in terms of reviews. I could see Baywatch going up based on early word.
They just gotta get the word out sooner rather than later. It was said people avoided Ghost In the Shell because there were no reviews.
Very surprising opening weekend numbers for Pirates 5 as nobody at my company is even talking about it and the movie comes out in a few weeks.
Personally none of the trailers have convinced me to get back on that Pirates train. The last one was awful and the one before that was just mediocre. This franchise needs a good director steering the ship if they want to continue making them. Bring someone like Bryan Singer or Duncan Jones and change it up a bit. Almost all the pirates movies look the same with the same tired formula.
As for Baywatch, their is definitely some buzz on it. I personally could careless about a Baywatch movie, but I do tend to enjoy The Rock in comedies.
It could start with a $100 Million opening, but I am not sure it could crack the billion worldwide, much less become profitable. The production was a highly troubled one, the end budget (at least officially), stands at a whooping $300-plus million and it will have to fight a heated coupled of following weeks (not sure Baywatch will survive, though), with Wonder Woman and The Mummy coming in succession in the following two weeks, thus competing for the same marketplace. And I’m not even taking into account this little wild card called King Arthur…
Don’t forget Depp was also in that bomb from Warner Bros directed by the mouthy jerk who filmed Dark Knight. That wannabe director spent too much time shooting his mouth off instead of honing his craft. I guess he spoke too soon