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Nice heatwave, but June 1878 was hotter

June 25, 2017
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By Paul Homewood

 

 

Booker on last week’s heatwave:

 

image

Headline writers were itching during last week’s heatwave to proclaim that it was a “record breaking” June, particularly on June 21, when the BBC flashed up that the temperature had hit “35 degrees” (in fact it had only been 34.5).

The problem, as all had to admit, was that this was only the hottest June spell since the drought year of 1976, when June temperatures on seven days exceeded 34.5, followed by months more of exceptional heat before the drought broke in September.

But the suspicions of that expert analyst Paul Homewood were aroused when he noticed that the 34.5 degrees had only been recorded in one place, Heathrow airport: just as happened two years ago when the Met Office splashed across the media that July 1 2015 had been “the hottest July day ever”, with a temperature of 36.7 degrees, again recorded only at Heathrow airport.

 

The hottest temperature this week was recorded in Heathrow airport

The hottest temperature this week was recorded in Heathrow airport Credit: DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AFP/Getty Images

 

Homewood’s detective work on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog suggested that the 36.7 figure had nowhere near been matched by the official weather stations nearest to Heathrow.

Even there it had only been recorded in a fleeting spike at 2.15 in the afternoon, by a thermometer sited on heat-radiating tarmac, near a main runway where it could have been affected by a blast from a passing airliner.

The Met Office confirms that last week was similar, where weather stations nearby recorded temperatures no higher than 33.8 degrees, equal to one recorded in 1995.

For a better perspective on last week’s heatwave, Homewood looked at the Central England Temperature record, based on centuries-old recordings at three weather stations across the country.

He found that there were hotter spells and June days recorded in more than a dozen previous years going back to 1878, showing that there was nothing exceptional about last week.

For years the greatest problem for the warmists was the failure after 1998 of global temperatures to continue rising

But the real reason why the global warming-obsessed Met Office and BBC are so desperate to convince us that the world is getting hotter than ever must itself be seen as only part of a much wider story, which I have lately been analysing in a paper for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, to show how the belief in man-made climate change has in every respect been a perfect case study in the rules of groupthink first identified 45 years ago by Irving Janis, a professor of psychology at Yale.

For years the greatest problem for the warmists was the failure after 1998 of global temperatures to continue rising as all their computer models had predicted.

Programmed to assume that as CO2 levels continued to rise, so global temperatures would follow, they had all agreed that in the 21st century the world would continue to get hotter by at least 0.3 degrees every decade.

But after the unusually strong El Niño year of 1998, this simply hadn’t happened. 1998 still stubbornly remained the hottest year in the modern record, and the trend failed to rise at all, in what became recognised, even by warmists, as the “Pause”.

So how could this be explained away? Around 2012, they thought they had the answer. The world was indeed continuing to warm according to the theory. But the reason why this was not reflected in the global temperature record was that all that extra heat was hiding away in the deep oceans.

 

INDIAN OCEAN

Scientists claim that extra heat has been absorbed by the ocean Credit: Andrey Nekrasov / Barcroft Media

 

Then, between 2014 and 2016, they thought they had been saved: by another El Niño, even stronger than that in 1998, which made 2016 the new “hottest year ever”.

All this was gleefully put together in a recent article in The Spectator by Philip Williamson, a scientist at the University of East Anglia who used it to show how the “denialists” had got it all totally wrong.

The Pause after 1998 had indeed been an illusion, Williamson claimed, because, during that time, an astonishing “93 per cent” of the extra heat created by human activity had simply been absorbed by the oceans, with only a mere 1 per cent reflected in surface temperatures.

But, once again, Homewood looked at the evidence for this. It was all based on data provided since 2004 by the US Argo buoy system. But he found that this only measures temperatures in the upper 2,000 metres of the oceans, and even this had only recorded a minuscule rise of 0.02 degrees.

However, when oceans warm, they expand, causing sea levels to rise. And measurements from tide gauges across the world show that there has been no increase in the rate of sea-level rise since the start of the Modern Warming 200 years ago.

When Williamson triumphantly referred to 2014, 2015 and 2016 as the “hottest years ever”, showing that the heat was once again emerging, he tellingly relied only on the two main surface temperature records, one kept by his colleagues at the UEA’s Climatic Research Unit and the UK Met Office.

But these have in recent years been controversially “adjusted” to show a temperature rise much larger than that actually recorded.

Significantly, Williamson made no mention of the much more comprehensive satellite temperature records, which have long been giving a very different picture.

Our June weather last week was not even as hot as it was in 1878, a century before the great global warming scare was invented

They indeed agreed that 2016 was tied for heat with 1998. But they have since shown a drop of more than 0.6 degrees, putting recent months way below their 2016, 2010 and 1998 El Niño peaks.

All we can safely say, therefore, is that those official computer models didn’t predict anything of what has been actually happening.

Natural factors such as the El Niños have clearly had much more influence on temperatures than the rise in CO2. And, far from breaking any records, our June weather last week was not even as hot as it was in 1878, a century before the great global warming scare was invented.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/24/nice-heatwave-june-1878-hotter/

The full CET analysis is here.

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21 Comments leave one →
  1. A C Osborn permalink
    June 25, 2017 10:14 am

    Another great plug for your work Paul, well done.

  2. Joe Public permalink
    June 25, 2017 10:14 am

    Let’s just be grateful there were no jumbos landing & taking off at the time the temperature was measured:

    • Tim Hammond permalink
      June 25, 2017 11:13 am

      So how many “errors” in that statement?

      Idle engines, are not the same as engines turned off – how do the Met Office think the aircraft keep moving? And what do they think is produced when a landing aircraft uses reverse thrusters to slow down?

      “Average differences” are not the question – what did Kew measure when this supposed hottest day was measured?

      Turbulence from aircraft would of course be hotter than “normal”, so they admit hotter air was present. Quite how mixing hotter air and less hot air results in cooler air when it is the less hot air that is “normal” is beyond me.

      I have walked around a number of airports airside, including on the runways. They are hotter than other areas. Maybe at Heathrow all those aircraft waiting to take off with their engines running might – just might – make the palce a little hotter than a field down the road?

      • Gray permalink
        June 25, 2017 11:47 am

        Many years ago I used to work as a contractor at the main chiller station in the centre of Heathrow, which provided cold water for all the air conditioning systems in the terminals. (don’t know if it still exists but there is still a massive amount of concentrated heat to dissipate from terminals, shopping malls, computer systems,baggage handling, workshops etc.)
        This had huge evaporative cooling towers to get rid of all heat.
        Probably nothing like the jet engines, but every little counts!

      • Bloke down the pub permalink
        June 26, 2017 9:58 am

        From memory, the issue with aircraft affecting the July1st temp record was that three Heavies (two 747s and an A380) landed in quick succession. This is normal practice, as the turbulence from these aircraft makes it dangerous for a smaller aircraft to land too soon behind one of them so they are grouped together to maximise the rate at which they can be landed. All aircraft touch down at about the same spot on the runway, but obviously enough, the heavies require a longer stretch to bring their speed down . This means that they use a taxiway further down the runway to head to the terminal and it’s this taxiway that is near the temperature sensor that gets blasted by jet efflux as the aircraft swings around.

    • AlecM permalink
      June 25, 2017 11:15 am

      Aircraft do not generate turbulence, it’s vortices which don’t transfer significant heat, just significant momentum.

    • HotScot permalink
      June 25, 2017 5:45 pm

      A huge amount of air mixing going on here. And I’ll bet it’s all hot!

    • June 26, 2017 12:42 am

      ” . . looking at all the daily maximum temperatures over the last 10 years . . . the average difference between the two sites of 0.03oC.” I’m not an expert, but I suspect misuse of statistics here. By averaging, they dilute the essential difference between maxima on rare heatwave days, by mixing them all up with the maxima from all the many cloudy/windy/rainy days of year when UHI has much less effect on the maximum temperature.

  3. June 25, 2017 10:28 am

    Quote: “93 per cent” of the extra heat created by human activity had simply been absorbed by the oceans
    – – –
    But since the oceans are opaque to long wave infrared radiation, how could that be true –
    even theoretically?

    • June 25, 2017 10:34 am

      It’s the miracle new physics, whereby blowing hot air over cold water transfers energy from the air to the water without causing any evaporation. It’s the opposite effect of blowing cold air over your cuppa tea to cause extra evaporation and cool the tea. Simples.

    • AlecM permalink
      June 25, 2017 11:16 am

      This is not just Bullshit, it’s M&S Bullshit……….

  4. June 25, 2017 10:30 am

    Well done Paul. You are definitely the first port of call to correct the fake news put out by the Met Office and the BBC.

  5. June 25, 2017 12:02 pm

    The other problem with the AGW to heatwave connection is that AGW is warming up the nights not the days. In both hemispheres.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2974794
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2968352

    • Jack Broughton permalink
      June 25, 2017 12:17 pm

      It is fascinating to consider why the nights are warming and whether this has any correlation with CO2.

      The original (1970s) global cooling scare was that CO2 would emit more heat and so cool the world. At that time the incoming radiation was assumed unaltered by CO2 but the atmosphere’s emissivity would increase, so producing cooling. That principle is still possibly valid as CO2 does emit in the longer wavelengths, so why are nights getting warmer rather than days – assuming that they are of course.

      I am still inclined to believe that the slow warming following the LIA has released CO2 into the atmosphere, as historical records indicate from previous episodes, and that this is beneficial for the human race.

  6. June 25, 2017 3:28 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  7. Athelstan permalink
    June 25, 2017 3:57 pm

    in the aftermath of warmest evah since 1976………… whatev, the wet office civil servants were telling us that “June temps are returning to normal” ~ 68F/20ºC or thereabouts.

    During the hot June episode, also the Wets Office were telling us that a, “hot air was feeding in and all the way from the Iberian peninusla” and just a few days ago a deposit of dust on the car was also significant of, the drift was from [maybe] even further south!

    Then, a UHI T reading from a blumin’ airport – in LONDON means we were ALL sweltering – er no actually Ts in the majority of the country were unsurprisingly well shy of the mid nineties, more like low to mid eighties.

    A single ‘fixed’ spike AND “we’re all baking” then Ts ……………….ARE back to normal………….as I said, June 2017 was a very changeable month, NORMALLY June is a very changeable month – Temperatures vary but rarely significantly and when they do, usually the wet office is fixing it, same old shit, same old lies, same old wet office civil servants doing the bidding of their masters.

    What we really need to find out, who keeps the pressure on, to controlling and advocating the alarmist meme – who runs the wets in the Met office and the BEIS – HMG are the liars in chief.

    Your, my, ‘OUR’ government tells fucking lies.

    • AlecM permalink
      June 25, 2017 4:49 pm

      The Met Office Hadley Centre was set up by John Houghton who bought the GISS fraud and then set out to sell it via the IPCC, of which he was one of the founders. If you read his books this transition was the result of his failure to understand that Planck, Bose and Einstein’s radiation physics only applies to a vacuum, and the atmosphere contains GHGs.

      To be honest, Houghton was also apparently fooled by a mistake in cloud optical physics by Hansen in 1969 and van der Hulst in 1967. The ex husband of Julia Slingo was contracted to devise a theoretical source of ‘back radiation’ and ‘positive feedback’. He apparently did this using the incorrect cloud physicist. However, these calculations, needed to replace ludicrous ‘negative convection’, are incorrect.

      So the fight in the UKMO is between those now busily phasing out CO2-AGW, replacing it with changes in solar insolation. The real AGW was Asian aerosols increasing [CCN], reducing cloud albedo. This ended in the late 1990s. Now we have very low insolation we are entering the new LIA, with extra oceanic heat being convected to the poles. Ultimately the planet’s control system has regulated temperature within ±3 K over the past 1 million years.

      Runaway CO2-AGW is impossible because the Proportional Control is extra water cycle as surface temperature rises plus extra Differential Control at the equator as convection rises. The Integral part has a much longer time constant, up to 800 years, the THC period. The detailed maths will follow.

      • HotScot permalink
        June 25, 2017 5:52 pm

        Individuals seduced by the vanity of their belief in ‘their’ science.

        Science does not recognise vanity.

      • Athelstan permalink
        June 26, 2017 7:15 am

        Former head of the Met Office Sir John Houghton said the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that even if we “turned off the carbon dioxide tap” the planet would continue heating up for another half a century.

        Sir John, who is a former Nobel Prize winning chair of the Intergovernmental Panel, said the report shows the risks of failing to act over global warming are now simply too great to gamble on.

        The panel’s report says it’s extremely likely, or 95% to 100% certain, human influence has been the dominant cause of global warming since the mid-20th century.

        ” the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that even if we “turned off the carbon dioxide tap”

        yeah, too right mate, “even if” you believe the alarmist loons and “even if” we did fuck all or shut Britain down as we are doing, carpet the world with birdmincers – we’d change not one thing, NOTHING!

        So, go and Foxtrot Oscar Houghton and take your alarmist advocacy, your insane evangelical zeal and stuff it where it really does belong: in a very dark place.

  8. June 25, 2017 8:24 pm

    “Nice heatwave”
    Describes something in the south of France. Surely ?

  9. June 26, 2017 7:45 am

    Reblogged this on ajmarciniak.

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