Ayman Nour Pardoned

Ayman Nour, who as head of the Al-Ghad Party ran against Husni Mubarak in 2005 and was subsequently jailed, has been pardoned by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and is therefore eligible to run for

Nour was an important figure in 2005, but in the very new Egypt that is emerging I suspect he will prove a rather peripheral figure, one more liberal competing for a small segment of a much broader political spectrum. But his conviction was patently trumped up by the Mubarak regime and it is good that his record has been cleared.

How the World Discovered Naguib Mahfouz

Well, not the Arab world or old Egypt hands, but Mahfouz gained his greatest fame after his 1988 Nobel Prize for Literature: "How the World Discovered Naguib Mahfouz." His 100th birthday is in December, so expect more on the subject here.

Egyptian Potential Presidential Candidates Maneuver

Over the past few days, Egyptian political figures have started to emerge from the upheaval and position themselves for expected Presidential elections. Departing Arab League Secretary-General ‘Amr Moussa has thrown his hat in the ring, as has Mohamed ElBaradei, to no one's real surprise. Though ElBaradei is already hedging a bit with conditions on the constitutional amendments issue, I should note that my cynicism in the past year or so over his chances were based on the fact that there was no then-constitutional route to power open to him. For example, back in 2009, I snarkily noted:

. . . his conditions include an independent national committee to oversee the elections, absolute judicial supervision of the vote, and international observers.

And rainbow-colored unicorns in the inaugural parade, I suspect. Okay, Mubarak senior and junior will surely agree to all that.

Well, the Military Council has already pledged most of that, except the unicorns, and these days, after all that's happened, I'm willing to believe even in rainbow-colored unicorns. Mubarak senior and junior are gone. It is, obviously, a whole new ball game.

I'm sure veteran opposition figures like Ayman Nour, and the longstanding political parties as well as many new ones, will also be looking at their options. The Muslim Brotherhood is playing a cautious game, afraid of spooking the West.And one of the oldest faces of the old guard, Safwat al-Sharif, who goes back to the Nasser era and was a Mubarak loyalist to the end, is said to be forming a new party to replace the NDP. No comment there, but don't bet your savings on its chances.

We're still at the beginning of the process, but they're off and running.

Demonstration for Khaled Sa‘id

UPDATE: More at the #khaledsaid hashtag on Twitter. Aida ElBaradei is the name of ElBaradei's wife, and shows up as one of those tweeting.

There was a demonstration today in Alexandria for Khaled Sa‘id, the young Egyptian reportedly taken from an Internet cafe and beaten to death by police. (My earlier post on the subject here: since then, the government has reportedly "investigated," and despite the photos that clearly show severe beating, they continue to attribute his death to drug consunption.) The demonstration, at the Sidi Gaber mosque (a small mosque to discourage large crowds), was visited by Mohamed ElBaradei, Ayman Nour, and other opposition figures. There is clearly real public anger about this, but if anyone was expecting a march on the Bastille, it didn't happen.

Some YouTube video:

Reports from the Cairo Protests

A grab bag of reports on today's 6 April protests and the government's heavy handed, but apparently successful, attempts to neutralize them:

• Sallie Pisch at Bikya Misr offers roundup of the day's events;
• #6april at Twitter (mix of English and Arabic);
• #6APRIL at Twitter;
  
• #anhri at Twitter (Arabic)
  
• A report at Daily News Egypt;

On the whole, like last year, those attempting to protest were met with a show of state force, and as some of the reports note, the absence of ElBaradei is apparently leading to criticism by many. As for Ayman Nour, he was reported holed up in the Al-Ghad Party HQ, which was surrounded by police.

Cairo is not Tehran, and while the April 6, 2008 labor protests were spontaneous, the 2009 and 2010 efforts to repeat them have fizzled in the face of determined state power.

Ayman Nour "Attacked" in Hurghada

Egyptian opposition figure Ayman Nour's troubles with the authorities continue. Over the weekend he was allegedly attacked by security forces and National Democratic Party operatives in the Red Sea resort town of Hurghada. The linked report says he was at a restaurant with an American filmmaker, and the US may have intervened to free him.

Now that he's made himself the spokesman of the Stop Gamal movement, he'll be even more of as lightning rod drawing attention from the authorities.

Ayman Nour's Office Raided

Via The Arabist, reports that Ayman Nour's office was raided during an anti-Gamal-succession meeting, and Nour's laptop and other devices seized. The anti-succession movement had been getting a fairly high profile; perhaps it was inevitable that State Security would step in.

He also caught an Al-Masry al-Yaum article I missed, in which Coptic Pope Shenouda again endorses Gamal Mubarak and dismisses the Coptic candidate. The Arabist expresses dismay at the Pope's remarks, but as I noted in earlier posts on Shenouda, Shenouda tried opposition politics under Sadat and spent several years in exile in the desert after Sadat deposed him in 1981, until Mubarak brought him back. He's been a Mubarak loyalist ever since, to the dismay of many Copts abroad and some at home.

Speaking of The Arabist, he posted a good dissenting comment to my recent post on Tunisia; it's worthy of your attention since it was posted nearly a week after the original post and only those who get the RSS feed of new comments will probably have seen it.

Egyptian Opposition Rallies Against Gamal Mubarak

The Egyptian opposition doesn't unite very often, but Wednesday evening a wide range of Egyptian opposition groups, from Ayman Nour to the Muslim Brotherhood to the Kifaya Movement, came together to protest the tawrith or inheritance of power by Gamal Mubarak.

The rally is getting publicity not only in Egypt but elsewhere, and of course there was the recent flutter of talk about Muhammad El Baradei (getting a bit of mileage from a Saudi paper here) the curious flurries earlier this year in favor of ‘Omar Suleiman, and even the country's first Coptic candidate.

It seems like an "Anybody but Gamal" ground swell, if you forget for a moment that in Egypt's variant of one-man-one-vote, Husni Mubarak is the man, and he's got the vote.

I really don't think the average Egyptian likes the idea of inheritance — tawrith is the word constantly used by the opposition, since it implies something handed down as in a will, the Presidency as a "bequest" — but I also fear the average Egyptian is inured to the fact that he or she doesn't really have a say in choosing the next Pharaoh President. The traditions of Pharaonic power have been adapted and adjusted through the millennia, but it's still a pretty Pharaonic presidency.

Because Egypt really does have a certain degree of freedom of expression not found in some other Arab autocracies, and a relatively independent press alongside the government one, the opposition can hold these sorts of rallies (up to a point), and make itself heard (in central Cairo), and find support from bloggers. That's the pressure valve that keeps the system from exploding.

It is, of course, just possible that if opposition to Gamal grows sufficiently, the Army could veto the succession, or Husni Mubarak might just decide he's good for another six years. Another term would carry him to 2017, when he'd still be a few months shy of 90. (Remember this story, though I still think it highly dubious, that claimed Mubarak said he'd hang on to power until his "last breath.")

But Gamal does have some real support from the nouveaux riches entrepreneurial class, and he has put his own brand on the National Democratic Party. Lately pro-Gamal Facebook groups are proliferating, I hear; I'll link to some when I have time to chase them down.

I haven't got any trace of monarchist tendencies (I'm a blend of Irish ancestors who hated British Kings and Scotch-Irish backwoodsmen who threw out the last one around these here parts), but I confess there have been moments I find Gamal a bit more impressive than Mubarak Senior. Not that that qualifies him for the Presidency. I think the big question mark for Gamal is the Army and the Security Services. He isn't one of them. And however much Sadat and Mubarak have co-opted the Army by granting it its own sector of the Egyptian economy, Gamal would still be the first President of Egypt not to come from the military. (And go back and look at the official portraits of Kings Fuad and Farouq: they're always shown wearing military uniforms.) If he does succeed, he's going to need either Field Marshal Tantawi or ‘Omar Suleiman (or preferably both) standing next to him when he's sworn in.

A few years ago there was talk that Gamal would launch his own party. (It was rumored to be called Mustaqbal: the Future. Of course Hariri in Lebanon appropriated that, but I've sometimes wondered if Ayman Nour named is party al-Ghad (tomorrow) in imitation, and that's why the Mubaraks have come down so hard on Nour.) Instead he took over the National Democratic Party. But he seems to be (if the opposition types are right in their criticisms) depending on a very small clique of close associates.

I still think the unpredictable element is Husni Mubarak's health. If he doesn't serve out his term, the succession process could be disrupted. He's actually been very slow and systematic: a lot of us thought Gamal would be General Secretary of the Party by now, but he's only head of its Political Committee (admittedly, that's just a more palatable translation of what a few decades back would have been translated "Politburo"). But as inexorable as the process seems, it isn't quite there yet, and if Husni left the scene suddenly, I'm not sure the process would proceed.

One additional side note: a theme you'll see in some of the linked articles is that a) succession is the kind of thing that happens in places like Syria, and b) Egypt is not Syria. The Asad succession has long been pointed to by Egyptians as a sign that Syria's not really serious about its republican credentials, and there are lingering resentments of the 1958-61 United Arab Republic, when Syria and Egypt learned to resent each other during three years as one country.

Until fairly recently, Egyptians denied that Gamal would ever succeed. Now, they seem to be more resigned to the possibility. But we're still about two years out from the elections, and much can happen between now and then.

Coptic Lawyer Says He'll Run for President of Egypt

There was an exchange about this last night in the comments to a post from last week, but it was a link to Al-Riyadh, and non-Arabic readers won't have seen it. (Nor will those who don't read comments, or keep checking them after the original post has been up a while.) Here's the story in English. As I commented to the commenter, I expect the first Coptic President of Egypt will be even longer in coming than a female Pope in Rome, but you have to admit, he's getting press for being the first candidate to announce. (Gamal Mubarak is presumably still making up his mind, plus, his father, at 81, hasn't actually said yet he won't seek another term.)

Besides being a publicity stunt, it's also reminiscent of the proliferation of minor and fringe candidates in Egypt's first-ever direct Presidential election, in 2005. There were initially 30 candidates, and in the end 10 were allowed to run by the electoral commission. You can take a look at the list in Wikipedia, or these BBC profiles, and I'll wager even the serious students of Egypt won't recognize names or parties below the top three (Husni Mubarak, Ayman Nour, and Nu‘man Guma‘a, at the time the head of the Wafd). The Muslim Brotherhood was barred from running, and some parties boycotted. Even so, one of the 10 was disqualified before the vote. But such sterling candidates as Ahmad al-Sabahi of the Umma Party weren't disqualified; as you'll note in the BBC profile of all the final nine, linked above, he was 90 years old at the time. (So Mubarak was not the oldest candidate.) As the BBC notes, he wanted to make men wear the fez (tarbush) again. As the BBC does not note, his other claim to fame was he had written many booklets on fortune-telling, good luck charms, and the like. Given the fact that he is quoted as saying he would get 95% of the vote for President, he apparently wasn't very good at it. Mubarak, of course, squeaked by with 88% of the vote.

Ramzy, the Coptic lawyer, is in a different category: his throwing the hat in the ring is symbolic, and it has drawn some attention, whereas Sabahi was just a crank with a "party" of his close friends.

The Increasing Irrelevance of Ayman Nour

Not to get into American politics too deeply, since I'll offend half my readers and that's not the subject of this blog, but the recent controversies over former Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin's decision to resign as Governor of Alaska (not just to quit at the end of her term but to resign this month) has puzzled and confused the pundits and many of her devout supporters, leading to a lot of debate as to whether she's played a brilliant political hand, or proven herself a quitter, or is trying to avoid a scandal, or what. Unless she knows something we don't, she seems to have made herself less, not more, likely to win higher office. Sometimes political figures make puzzling, even seemingly self-defeating, decisions.

That can happen with political candidates in the Middle East, too. Case in point: Ayman Nour.

You'll remember Ayman Nour, who's been active enough to have his own topic in the "Categories" file of this blog, with seven posts just since January up to this one; I refer you to that list rather than link individually, but the story so far: former Wafd Party figure, split with the Wafd Party (actually kicked out), started the Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) Party, ran against Mubarak for President in 2005, lost and was sent to prison on (rather dubious) charges; released in order to placate the US' new Administration; tried to make himself relevant to the April 6 demonstrations this year, but was sandbagged by his wife announcing she was divorcing him on the same day; claimed he'd been attacked by a person on a motorbike who lit a spray aerosol can and set fire to his hair, giving him first degree burns; strongly denied press reports that he'd told the doctors that he'd burned himself with a hairdryer.

That's my attempt at a fair summary of his career since getting out of prison. And I like Ayman Nour.

Now, to add to his stellar performance since his release, Ayman Nour has recently:

1. Announced that he is running for President in 2011, even though he is barred from doing so by current electoral laws and his conviction; and (since that could at least be seen as a challenge to the status quo), has also
2. Picked a fight with the Coptic Church. This one makes me wonder about the man's stability. Insofar as his Al-Ghad Party has any political base, it is as a modern offshoot of the historic Wafd, and the historic Wafd, the liberal party of the monarchical period, was often strongly supported by the Coptic elites, such as Makram ‘Ebeid. So Nour has sought to visit a church (Mari Girgis) in Alexandria. The reason is not entirely clear, but is presumably political, but he has been told by the Coptic Pope, Shenouda III, not to do so, and is fighting back (see the link). Now there are many divisions in the Coptic Church today (a subject for a future post), and Shenouda, once back in the Sadat era a critic of the regime, has become a strong supporter of Mubarak and endorsed him in 2005, and there are Coptic elite figures (and some bishops) who are quietly opposing him. Nour may win some Coptic support by attacking the Pope, but he will lose even more. This one doesn't make any sense, not for a Muslim running in a Muslim country. Don't try to play internal minority politics if you aren't part of the minority: you won't get it right, and it will almost certainly backfire.
   

Nour really is at risk of being made to look ridiculous, which of course the regime will not hesitate to capitalize upon. He's being divorced by his high profile, anchorperson wife; he's been made to look absurd on the "aerosol hair burning" incident (whatever the truth may have been, and he may have been telling the truth); he's tilting at windmills by declaring a candidacy he cannot legally pursue; and now he's fighting the Coptic Pope. Why?

He might do better to fight his conviction in court, try to achieve vindication, and then seek to run as President.

One reason that we are likely to see the real competition for succession to Husni Mubarak as between Gamal Mubarak and some military figure such as Omar Suleiman is simply that there doesn't seem to be a liberal democratic alternative or, for that matter, a civilian alternative within the ruling party leadership. Gamal today controls most of the National Democratic Party levers, except for a few ancient figures retained from earlier eras, but too old to contend for power. The Wafd has been, to all intents and purposes, destroyed, and was once the only opposition party with a real national base, other than the ruling National Democratic Party and the Muslim Brotherhood. Al-Ghad has always been Nour's personal party, though perhaps with appeal to the old (but increasingly geriatric) Wafd base, but he is increasingly being made to look ridiculous. Of course the regime is partly responsible for that, but Nour himself is increasingly complicit. Most of the other parties, excepting always the Muslim Brotherhood, are either intellectual debating clubs, personal hobbyhorses of their leader, or remnants of pre-Revolutionary movements that never had the support that the Wafd enjoyed. The ruling party has fragmented the opposition. Nour had a moment in the sun when he could have created a real alternative, but he has become increasingly irrelevant. It's Gamal or the Army or the Brotherhood, as far as I can see, and I expect the Brotherhood will let the other two fight it out and stand in the wings as the alternative.

Weekend Reading

As I do each Friday, a quick roundup to hold you over the weekend.

• Lebanon's ongoing series of arrests of what is alleged to be a spy ring for Israel has continued with the arrest of a Lebanese Army Colonel, Mansur Diab. The fact that the alleged spy ring is being rounded up in the midst of Lebanon's elections is probably no coincidence.
  

• Ayman Nour, the Egyptian opposition figure last heard from when his wife announced she was divorcing him at the time of the 6 April fizzled protest movement, is the center of a new controversy. He claimed he was attacked by an assailant on a motorbike who lit the spray of an aerosol can, giving him first degree burns on the forehead. Then yesterday Al-Masry al-Youm published a story quoting a "Professor of Dermatology" as saying that Nour told her that he had been burned by a hair dryer and that he wanted to have plastic surgery and a hair transplant to repair the damage. Nour has now fired back that this is nonsense, that no one he saw at the hospital was old enough to be a professor, and has repeated his original claims. Whether this is self-dramatization by Nour or disinformation planted by the regime or some combination of the two is unclear at this point. Nour may really have been the victim of an attack, but if the hair dryer/hair transplant version is government disinformation, it is likely to be what people remember, and it makes him seem vain and a bit ridiculous. Which, of course, is the point of good disinformation, if such it is.
  

• I've been irreverent from time to time about Egypt's massive overreaction to Swine Flu, particularly its mass slaughter of pigs, and have regularly pointed out that not a single case of swine flu had been confirmed in the Arab world (though Egypt has persistent problems with bird flu, yet doesn't slaughter its chickens). Well, I can no longer make my observation, because the World Health Organization has confirmed swine flu in the Arab world: 18 cases in Kuwait. But there's a punchline: all the infected are US soldiers, presumably infected elsewhere before arriving in Kuwait.
  

Light Posting Today; Some Links to Hold You Over

Today is my daughter's birthday and, due to Good Friday, she's out of school, so I will be taking her to lunch and doing other father-daughter type things. Posting will be light or perhaps nonexistent unless something major happens. I work from home on Fridays anyway, but that usually means more time to post rather than less. But not today: my wife has to work, so it's a dad and daughter thing. Meanwhile, some links to other reading for your edification:

• "To fight Iranian subversion in Egypt, Cairo is willing to help Israel prevent the arming of Hamas in the Gaza Strip." That's from Haaretz, as the drumbeats continue about this Egyptian claim of breaking a Hizbullah-backed network planning to operate in Sinai. There's still a lot of uncertainty about this Egypt/Hizbullah thing. The Arabist had some thoughts along the same line as mine, that the whole "spreading Shi‘ism in Egypt" theme is more a case of Sunni insecurity than actual intent. That doesn't mean that Hizbullah's not involved, of course, just that I don't think the motive is sectarian so much as ideological.

• Meanwhile, Hizbullah itself has its own conspiratorial spin on Egypt's relations with the "Zionist entity" (hardly anyone says that anymore, but Hizbullah does) and the accusations by Egypt; and we're also assured that Sheikh Hasan Nasrallah will explain it all today. (And, in case the mainstream media missed it, Hizbullah's al-Manar TV also informs us with a straight face that Kim Jong-Il has been re-elected!) [I'm linking to their English news pages, but if you can't access the Hizbullah website it may be because your server blocks it, or because the Israelis are hacking it again. During the Lebanon war it was constantly being hacked by Israeli hackers.]

• A new issue of the Carnegie Endowment's Arab Reform Bulletin is out. It's always got good material on democratization and reform issues in the Arab world. Pieces this time on Palestine, Egypt, Syria, Bahrain and Western Sahara. It's currently edited by Michele Dunne, who's no relation and spells Dunn with an (unnecessary) extra "e", but I have gotten phone calls intended for her: Michael Dunn/Michele Dunne look similar in the Rolodex, and we only work about a block apart anyway. We're also both Egypt hands. And Michele's heard me make all these comments before, so I hope she won't mind.

• Al-Masry al-Youm is runnng the whole Ayman Nour divorce story into the ground. As near as I can tell from this "interview" with Gamila Isma‘il (soon to be ex-Madame Nour) they seem to have been walking on the streets in downtown Cairo asking her these questions. National Enquirer style journalism indeed: it sounds a bit like stalking. Arabic story here; English here. Breaking the story on April 6, when Nour was trying to regain the center of attention, may have been justifiable, but at this point it's descending into voyeurism. (Not that Western tabloids are any better, but this is supposed to be an elite paper, the independent equivalent of Al-Ahram.) The Arabist says that "I don’t think I can take much more of the smug, self-congratulatory tone of al-Masri al-Youm anymore," notes their over-hyping of their own stories (and claiming credit for the Hizbullah story, which was publicized by the government) and says "I officially declare the al-Masri al-Youm era of Egyptian journalism over. Not sure what the new era is, but they no longer have the same authority they once did." I think he's right on target there. I also suspect that since the official government press is so staid and boring, even the "elite" independent papers are seeking to be a little sensational to gain a following. Leave these folks alone now. The initial story was news because they are national figures; but from here on, let 'em be.
  

• It's stale news now from yesterday, but Jeffrey Feltman will be the new Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs. Here's his biography; he's already made headlines as Acting Assistant Secretary by going to Syria.

Egypt, The Day After

The day after the big day in which not very much happened, the fizzled protest and nonexistent general strike set for yesterday (see yesterday's postings) is a topic of discussion in Egypt. The Arabist offers a review of how the main newspapers handled the story (ranging from glee on the part of the government papers to dismay on the part of the opposition). And here is a good analysis of what went wrong with the much-ballyhooed Facebook approach to revolution. But as The Arabist notes, the most talked-about story of the day is the Ayman Nour divorce story I posted about last night. The Al-Masry Al-Youm story breaking the news finally showed up last night (Arabic version here; English version here). My initial suspicion that this was a publicity stunt seems to have been wrong, though there are still some mysteries about it and Nour's public denials.

Egypt's Weird Day Gets Weirder, National Enquirer Style

Okay, this is my third post on Egypt today, and well past my normal close-of-business time, but things are getting weird. Ayman Nour, who has been the subject of earlier posts, played a part in the earlier protests, meager as they were. But now there are reports that Nour and his celebrity wife, Gamila Isma‘il, are divorcing after 20 years of marriage. On the day of the big protest movement? It gets stranger: Nour denies the story. His wife's cell phone is turned off and she can't be reached for comment. Al-Masry al-Youm is supposed to be breaking the story tomorrow morning, but there's nothing on their website yet. Perhaps their web folks went home on the "day of anger" and decided not to post their big story till morning?

Now some Egyptian bloggers are expressing shock and a few are expressing suspicion that there's a publicity stunt afoot here. My own suspicions tend in the latter direction. If two of the stars of the opposition: the Al-Ghad Party leader and his wife, a former TV reporter, are getting divorced after 20 years, why does it come out on the day of the big protest fizzle? Why does he deny it? Why can't she be reached?

This blog is not going to do National Enquirer or Gawker type gossip (at least unless I get desperate for readership), but the timing of this is not just odd, it's downright suspicious. Ayman Nour was on the national stage today, getting more publicity than he has gotten since just after his release from prison. Gamila Isma‘il supported him through his time in prison and was his chief advocate and an ally in trying to keep the party loyal to him. So their divorce is going to leak on the "day of anger"? Forgive me if I react to this story with the same attitude I tend to reserve for the latest financial deal offered me by the widows of retired Nigerian political figures.

It could be untrue, or true but unrelated to the 6 April demonstrations, or even a sign of disagreement over the future stategy of protest. Watch this space. This is either a publicity stunt worthy of a Hollywood starlet's publicist or a regrettable event with an odd synchronicity, a reminder of the relationship between tragedy and farce.

More on the April 6 Fizzle

Okay, I guess the age of Facebook as a fomenter of revolution isn't here yet, after all. The 6 April Movement is going to have trouble explaining the results of the day after all the preliminary hype.

Reading various accounts of today's demonstrations in Egypt, it seems clear that the earlier impression was correct: the 6 April Movement failed to even score major demonstrations, let alone a general strike. A few reports from various places: here, in which the total number arrested throughout Egypt is estimated at only 45, and it is noted that at the demonstration outside the Journalists' syndicate, the State Security Investigations and other police outnumbered the demonstrators; this article entitled "Some University Students Protest as Others Play Ping-Pong," and, given the fact that the organizers urged the demonstrators to wear black as a symbol of their protest, I have to look at this photo and ask, does riot police body armor count?

I'm not making fun of the protestors: there's plenty worth protesting, and they did take risks in organizing their movement, but their ability to rally supporters has proved to be virtually nil. They had a good virtual presence, as I noted in my earlier backgrounder, but 73,000 Facebrook friends using pseudonyms is not quite the same as protestors willing to stand up to the billy-clubs of the security police. The Muslim Brotherhood "supported" the demonstrators but had few people actually on the streets; it may be that this Al-Ahram assessment ("Too Old School to Strike") is on target. Ayman Nour showed up to rally demonstrators at one point and apparently became the center of attention for photographers, but there seem to have been only tiny clumps of people at the main targets of the demonstrations (trade union headquarters, the Journalists' Union, etc.).

UPDATE AND VOCABULARY NOTE: I've been surfing English-language Egyptian blogs, websites etc. tonight, and one word keeps cropping up in a range of blogs from the Trotskyite left through the Nasserists and Islamists and on out to the fairly pro-government folks. The most common word in the frequency cloud, at least in my unscientific opinion, is the one I've seen in almost every posting: pathetic. When left, rightl and center all agree on the same dismissive word, your revolution needs a bit of fine tuning.

More on Ayman Nour

Now that he has been released from prison, Ayman Nour is treading somewhat cautiously, giving interviews and holding press conferences in which he talks about rebuilding the Al-Ghad Party and indicating he will not resume his role as head of the party, a position held by a successor since his jailing.

Some of this is no doubt just natural caution. He is barred from public office unless a court overturns his conviction or (and this would be a real stretch) President Mubarak pardons him. On the other hand, Nour is a lawyer and Egypt's civil court system is still rather independent (which is why the government uses security courts for so many offenses). He will presumably seek a judicial ruling at some point.

It will be interesting to see what public opinion makes of him after all this. By some accounts, his imprisonment increased his popularity since it was seen as vindictive and trumped up. But the widespread US criticism of his jailing has led the government to broadly hint that Nour is some kind of American agent, or at least the Americans' favored politician. In the prsent environment that label could prove fatal to future political ambitions.

The fact that Saadeddin Ibrahim, the other best-known Egyptian critic of the regime, was released from prison but then charged again and is now living in the US in effective exile, must also be in Nour's mind as he ponders his future. It is only two and a half years until Mubarak's term is up, and if the intention is to have Gamal Mubarak succeed, there will probably be efforts made to give an impression of competitiveness to the elections. That could mean Nour might find himself able to run, though frankly he is not likely to have much more of a chance of winning than he had in 2005. But then, there are still many uncertainties about the succession and how it will come about.

Ayman Nour is Out of Jail

Ayman Nour, head of Egypt's al-Ghad (Tomorrow) party and former Presidential candidate, has been released from prison, ostensibly for medical reasons. Nour's imprisonment soun after he lost the first direct Presidential elections to Husni Mubarak had been a subject of tension between Washington and Cairo, and therefore there is naturally speculation about what message his release at this time is meant to convey. The Arabist suggests that it is not just a gesture to Barack Obama, but perhaps also a message that Mubarak will do things on his own timetable and US pressure does ot work. I think that may be a credible interpretation.

Nour's imprisonment damaged US-Egyptian relations, as had the earlier imprisonment of Saadeddin Ibrahim, and one question that emerges is why the government was so intent on silencing Nour. Part of it may be that as a somewhat populist member of the younger generation (he is now 44), Nour might pose a challenge to the (presumed) succession of Gamal Mubarak. (In fact, at one time Gamal formed a "Future" movement which some thought might evolve into a party; Nour formed a party named "Tomorrow." Coincidence?)

Nour also did not play by the rather restrictive rules under which Egypt's legal opposition parties operated. He rose in the old-guard Wafd Party, but split with the Wafd to form Ghad. In the 2005 elections he ran as a Presidential candidate although the opposition candidate the government had in position, Wafd leader Nu'man Gomaa, was the "official" opposition challenger. (Gomaa was of the older generation and from Mubarak's home province.) Nour ran second, and Gomaa third, which was not the preferred script for the results since it gave Nour a claim to be the leading opposition figure.

Nour was imprisoned for alleged forgery of signatures (powers of attorney) for the petitions founding the party; the arrest thus challenged the legality of the party as well as put him in jail. It seemed pretty clear that this was a pretext for arresting someone the government had already decided needed to be taken off the political stage. Though now released, unless Nour's conviction is overturned in court, his record will bar him from running for political office again,

As for the release's timing, it can be interpreted as a gesture to the new US Administration if Washington wishes, while also showing, as The Arabist noted, that Mubarak did not yield to Bush Administration pressure. And it allows for a claim of humanitarian concern, since Nour was suffering from diabetes in prison, and health concerns seem to be the ostensible reason for his rdelease at this time.

And meanwhile, presumably Nour has learned the message that the government tends to send opposition figures from time to time: there are limits to what will be tolerated.