Real talk about the Fed chair job

REAL TALK ABOUT THE FED CHAIR JOB — Talk to different administration officials and outside advisers to President Donald Trump and you will get multiple answers about whether NEC Chair Gary Cohn still has a shot at the Fed (or even keeping his current job). Those who tend not to like Cohn or his economic worldview say no way he gets the Fed, Trump despises him now. Can’t stand the sight of him.

Those who are more agnostic say it’s no longer likely but not impossible and that Trump is annoyed but could warm up to Cohn again. Those who like Cohn say his chances are not very different than they’ve ever been and that the Campaign to Crush Cohn is being orchestrated by the NEC Chair's enemies inside and outside the White House.

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Who knows exactly where the real truth lies. Trump himself probably doesn’t even know. He hasn’t spent much time on the Fed chair question. He blows hot and cold on people all the time. But there are certainly others very much in the mix beyond Cohn and current chair Janet Yellen.

Stanford’s Kevin Warsh and John Taylor top most lists. But Trump likes CEO/corporate types more than academics/wonks. That’s why Cohn was so appealing. And that’s why former US Bancorp CEO Richard Davis and former BB&T CEO John Allison make most lists.

More dark-horse candidates include PIMCO’s Richard Clarida, who served as assistant Treasury Secretary for economic policy under George W. Bush, Columbia’s Glenn Hubbard and Larry Lindsey, NEC Director under George W. Bush. Discussions will also soon focus on the vice chair slot with some talking up a Taylor for chair, Warsh for vice chair combo. But that may not satisfy Trump’s desire for a CEO type.

One person close to Trump says that one of the president’s goals is to pick a chair who would be open to more accountability and openness for the Fed. “He thinks it operates too much on its own and he doesn’t really like the wonky, academic types,” this person said.

INTERESTING TIDBIT — Bloomberg reports that Cohn is no longer leading the Fed search: “John DeStefano, the president’s chief personnel recruiter, is in charge of the search, one person said.” Read more.

DEATH TO THE DEBT LIMIT!? — POLITICO’s Josh Dawsey and Burgess Everett: “Trump suggested to congressional leaders on Wednesday morning that votes to raise the debt ceiling could be done away with altogether, according to three people familiar with the conversation.

“In a meeting with GOP and Democratic leaders, in which Trump sided with the Democrats on a fiscal deal to raise the debt ceiling, the president said he believes the votes are unproductive, those people said. Many lawmakers dread the vote, particularly Republicans” Read more.

PRAISE FOR TRUMP! — Obama WH CEA Chair Jason Furman emails MM following Trump’s reported remarks: “Lawmakers have been playing with a loaded gun for too long now, it is time to put the gun away permanently before we face a terrifying accident. Permanently eliminating the debt limit would be a win for the US economy.

“As a policy it fails a cost-benefit test, having a real cost and a risk of a potentially catastrophic cost while doing little to motivate fiscal action. Moreover, permanently eliminating the debt limit would be a political compromise — applying not just to President Trump but all of his successors, Democrats and Republicans.”

HAT TIP — Thorn Run Parteners’ Jason Rosenstock wrote earlier this summer: “With all of this uncertainty yet again surrounding the passage of legislation to extend the government’s borrowing authority, perhaps the time is ripe for a grand bargain on the issue. Democrats … are tired of having to supply the votes and the campaign fodder for Republicans …

“Republicans, in control of all three branches of Government for the first time during one of these crises, know that they can’t escape the blame for any repercussions to the market for failing to raise the debt limit. While few are publicly talking about it, the stars may be aligning so that this next extension is the final time Congress deals with this issue.”

SOME REPUBLICANS BALK — POLITICO’s Rachael Bade: “Top White House officials will try to rally wary Republicans around … Trump’s Harvey aid-debt limit package during a House GOP conference meeting Friday morning. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and [OMB] Director Mick Mulvaney, a former Freedom Caucus conservative, will urge Republicans to back the agreement Trump struck with Democrats Wednesday.

“The Senate passed the measure Thursday afternoon, 80-17. But conservatives in the House are furious that the three-month debt ceiling increase does not include spending cuts. Republican Study Committee leaders came out against the bill Thursday, and they claim to have at least 100 conservatives lined up to vote ‘no.’” Read more.

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend everyone. Praying for those in Hurricane Irma’s path. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES – Victoria Guida on how a year after Wells Fargo was fined $185 million for opening potentially millions of fake accounts, the bank is nowhere close to putting the scandal behind it. To get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m., please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or info@politicopro.com.

EQUIFAX HIT WITH MASSIVE HACK — POLITICO’s Eric Geller: “Credit reporting giant Equifax said … that hackers had compromised the personal information of 143 million Americans. The data breach — one of the largest in history — exposed names, Social Security numbers, birth dates, mailing addresses, driver’s license numbers and 209,000 U.S. credit card numbers, Equifax said in a statement.

“The hack, which occurred between May and July, also compromised 182,000 Americans’ credit reporting dispute files, which contain sensitive information about their personal and financial histories. Hackers exploited a now-fixed website vulnerability to access the information, according to Equifax. Read more.

REACT — Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA), Ranking Member of the Committee on Financial Services: “This hack into sensitive information compiled and maintained by Equifax is one of the largest data breaches in our nation’s history and someone has to be held accountable.

“Given the important role credit scores play in the lives and financial futures of hardworking Americans, Congress must diligently examine the way our credit reporting agencies are operating and impose additional statutory and regulatory reforms to protect the integrity of the country’s credit reporting system.”

EXECS SOLD STOCKS BEFORE DISCLOSURE — Bloomberg’s Anders Melin: “Three Equifax Inc. senior executives sold shares worth almost $1.8 million in the days after the company discovered a security breach that may have compromised information on about 143 million U.S. consumers.

“The credit-reporting service said late Thursday in a statement that it discovered the intrusion on July 29. Regulatory filings show that three days later, Chief Financial Officer John Gamble sold shares worth $946,374 and Joseph Loughran, president of U.S. information solutions, exercised options to dispose of stock worth $584,099.

“Rodolfo Ploder, president of workforce solutions, sold $250,458 of stock on Aug. 2. None of the filings lists the transactions as being part of 10b5-1 pre-scheduled trading plans. … The trio had not yet been informed of the incident, the company said.” Read more.

Equifax tanked 13 percent in after-hours trading.

Can't make it up: Equifax has a web site up so you can check if you're data was compromised. But you have to enter a partial Social Security number to access it. And why would anyone do that at the moment?

FACEBOOK IN HOT WATER — POLITICO’s Darren Samuelsohn: “Facebook is facing intense political fallout and thorny legal questions a day after confirming that Russian funds paid for advertising on the social media platform aimed at influencing voters during last year’s presidential election.

“Mark Warner, the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Thursday he hopes to call executives from Facebook, Twitter and other social media companies to testify publicly about what role their companies may have played, however unwittingly, in the wider Kremlin effort to manipulate the 2016 White House race” Read more.

BREXIT CATCH-UP — Nice package of Brexit columns this week from Reuters here.

NEW CRYPTO-BILL — POLITICO’s Colin Wilhelm: “Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) and Jared Polis (D-Colo.) introduced a bill to allow cryptocurrency transactions of up to $600 to forego IRS reporting requirements. Because Bitcoin was defined as property, rather than currency, by the tax agency in 2014, cryptocurrency transactions technically fall under the same category as stock trades. This bill would reclassify those transactions as similar to foreign currency transactions.

“For tax purposes, the bill would also preclude virtual currency transactions other than exchanges for cash or cash equivalents to be counted under gross income” Read more.

HOW HURRICANES WILL HIT THE ECONOMY — WSJ’s Josh Zumbrun and Sarah Chaney: “Hurricane Harvey will distort measures of the U.S. economy in the weeks and months ahead, making it more difficult for economists and policy makers to gauge its trajectory at a sensitive time for the Federal Reserve.

“Everything from jobless claims, which already surged in a report on Thursday, to gross domestic product and inflation will be knocked off course, with brief spikes across a wide range of reports, economists say. And that is before any impact from Hurricane Irma, which could devastate cities across the Southeast” Read more.

And the hurricane hits keep on coming — AP’s Bernard Condon and Gary Fineout: “A decade-long lucky streak of decent weather that helped rescue one of Florida's biggest home insurers from collapse could come to a wet, violent end if predictions about Hurricane Irma prove true.

“The state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corp. is strong enough to absorb the blow from the monster storm, industry experts say, but all the new claims could punch a hole in its finances, possibly leading to higher premiums in future years.” Read more.

** A message from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Though it’s been almost 7 years since the Fiduciary Rule was first proposed it is only now in the early stages of implementation that we are seeing the negative impact it is having on investors. Check out the U.S. Chamber’s new research examining the “Fiduciary Fallout." **

STOCKS END MIXED; BANKS FALL — AP’s Marley Jay: “U.S. stock indexes finished nearly back where they started Thursday as steep losses for banks and insurance companies were balanced out by gains in health care and technology companies.

“Banks skidded as bond yields reached their lowest levels of the year, which sent interest rates down. Insurance companies plunged as investors weighed the prospects of big losses caused by Hurricane Irma, which is hitting the north Caribbean and is projected to reach Florida this weekend. Payment processing companies rose after Mastercard increased its revenue forecasts, while losses for Comcast and Disney hurt media companies.” Read more.

DOLLAR TUMBLES AS YEN, EURO RALLY — Bloomberg’s Andreea Papuc: “The dollar held losses as investors braced for damage that Hurricane Irma may inflict on Florida, and the euro was near the highest since January 2015 after the European Central Bank stopped short of attempting to jawbone it lower. Stocks in Asia were mixed. The yen maintained gains after hitting its strongest since November.” Read more.

LOW INFLATION GIVES FED PAUSE — WSJ’s Nick Timiraos: “Stubbornly low inflation readings are giving Federal Reserve officials second thoughts about whether they will be in a position to raise short-term interest rates again this year. Several Fed officials have indicated in recent interviews and public comments they are poised to announce at their meeting Sept. 19-20 that in October they will start slowly shrinking the central bank’s $4.5 trillion holdings of bonds and other assets and to leave rates unchanged.

“The bigger question about the meeting is how many officials will again project one more interest-rate increase this year, as a large majority did in June, and what Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will say on the matter during her news conference after the meeting in light of an inflation soft patch that has lasted longer than officials expected.” Read more.

HEDGE FUND WANNABES BUSTED FOR TRADING ON ILLEGAL TIPS — Bloomberg’s Matt Robinson: “Two men who had dreams of starting a hedge fund have been accused of taking an unfortunate shortcut to show they were top-notch traders: buying illegal tips from their friend at Amazon.com Inc.

“Maziar Rezakhani and Sam Sadeghi of Washington state paid Amazon analyst Brett Kennedy $10,000 for nonpublic information on the online retailer’s 2015 first-quarter earnings, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said in a Thursday statement. Their goal was to establish a successful track record so they could impress investors and start a New York hedge fund, the SEC said.” Read more.

ACKMAN TELLS ADP BOARD THAT SHAREHOLDERS WANT TEAMWORK — Reuters: “Billionaire investor William Ackman told board members of Automatic Data Processing on Thursday that large shareholders want the company and Ackman’s activist hedge fund to work together and that he too wants to end a current proxy fight.

“Ackman’s hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management owns 8.3 percent of the company, making it a top 10 shareholder, along with mutual fund giants Vanguard Group, BlackRock Institutional Trust Company and State Street Global Advisors.” Read more.

INVESTOR APPETITE FOR U.S. JUNK BOND FUNDS RETURNS — FT’s Robin Wigglesworth: “A renewed thirst for yield resulted in U.S. junk bond funds attracting more than $1bn for only the sixth week in 2017, after rising worries over this year’s rally has led investors to withdraw money out of riskier debt this summer.

“US mutual funds and exchange traded funds focused on high-yield bonds — often called ‘junk’ — attracted investor inflows of more than $1bn in the seven days to Wednesday, according to EPFR.” Read more.

ECB SIGNALS END OF CHEAP MONEY ERA — NYT’s Jack Ewing: “Europe has taken a small step in its long march toward economic normalcy. The European Central Bank said on Thursday that it had pondered how to wind down its easy money policies, an enormous stimulus program aimed at promoting growth and inflation in the eurozone. But the bank also postponed a decision on when it would actually do so, and will likely decide at least some of the details at its next meeting in October, the bank’s president, Mario Draghi, said.” Read more.

FREEDOM CAUCUS MEMBERS FRUSTRATED — Bloomberg’s Billy House and Erik Wasson: “House Freedom Caucus members expressed frustration Thursday with how Republican congressional leaders are handling the party’s legislative agenda a day after President Donald Trump reached a deal with Democrats on a short-term debt-limit extension.

“’If we get to December and we have not repealed and replaced Obamacare,’ funded Trump’s Mexican border wall or overhauled tax laws, ‘it’s not going to be pretty,’ Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows said at a Bloomberg News breakfast.” Read more.

** A message from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce: A new study of financial advisory companies conducted by the U.S. Chamber shows retirement investors will be worse off because of the fiduciary rule. All participants said the financial needs of small retirement savings investors will be worse served under the rule. The survey also shows more than 13 million total accounts have lost or now have limited access to financial products and services, while 6 million total accounts are facing the prospect of higher fees. Read the full survey results here and visit LearnSaveRetire.com to learn more. **