Sisi Again Attends Coptic Christmas Eve Mass

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Egyptian President Sisi has attended Coptic Christmas Eve Midnight Mass at Saint Mark's Coptic Cathedral in Cairo for the second year in a row.

He was greeted by Pope Tawadros II,and addressed the congregation, conveying holiday wishes and drawing cheers. Video in Arabic.

On the Eve of Egypt's Big Day

After all Egypt has gone through in recent years, Egyptians could probably use something to celebrate, and celebrate they will, though not everyone is on board. Tomorrow the "new Suez Canal" project will be dedicated. It's a genuine accomplishment, however much it is being overhyped. For those who know Arabic, here's a selection of Thursday's early edition newspapers, both state-owned and private (Hat Tip to Thomas Gorguissian of Al-Tahrir):

President Sisi is a New Favorite of the American Right Wing

On the occasion of the Prophet's Birthday, President al-Sisi of Egypt gave an address to al-Azhar in which he called for a "religious revolution" (thawra diniyya) within Islam aimed at countering the negative image of Islam created by radical Islamism. I didn't blog about it at the time as it was quite well-publicized and gave explicit voice to the generally anti-Muslim Brotherhood rhetoric that has dominated Egyptian life since July 3, 2013. But it has had a rather interesting resonance in US politics, where the right wing of the Republican Party has adopted Sisi as a new favorite. Since the Republicans control both houses of the new Congress, this should protect Egypt against those who want to cut US economic aid and military sales.

Here's the actual speech. If the English subtitles don't appear, clack on the "CC" button.

I do think Sisi may be the best public speaker of any President since Nasser, to whom the press loves to compare him. If you know Egyptian Arabic, he is speaking a clear colloquial Arabic in a manner that gives the listener the sense they are being addressed directly.

One of the most extreme examples of Sisi's new role as a darling of the American right was a recent speech by Representative Louie Gohmert, Republican of Texas, in which he said:

“I hope one day that our top leaders in this country will have the courage of President al-Sisi in Egypt and they will reflect, as Gen. al-Sisi has, the will of the people of their country,” Gohmert said in a speech first flagged by the District Sentinel.

"If the story is properly written about Egypt, and one day it will be, they will see that in the last six years, that besides Israel, the country that has been most fearless in standing up for freedom and against radical Islamic terrorism, unfortunately, has not been the United States because of our leadership," he said. 

I'm at a loss about the "last six years" line, which takes us back to 2009 and the late Mubarak era, and for one of those six years, the Muslim Brotherhood was at the helm.. And Gohmert is not a newcomer among Sisi admirers: in 2013 he traveled to Egypt with Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Steve King of Iowa (both Republicans) and actually thanked Sisi for overthrowing Muhammad Morsi. That didn't sit well with the State Department at the time.

Gohmert isn't alone. Fox News has of course joined the Sisi choir, as has The Washington Times and commentator Raymond Ibrahim. 

Oh, and George Will says Sisi deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

Now, as it happens, I don't disagree with what Sisi said at al-Azhar and think it needed saying, and I think his appearance at the Christmas Mass at the Coptic Cathedral was a very positive step. If the journalists and other protesters currently jailed were freed, I'd start to see him as an enlightened autocrat, though hardly a democrat. So I'm conflicted. I agree Sisi is showing some positive signs among other negative ones.. But not in Gohmert's terms. And those are fairly big ifs, as well.

Video of Sisi Welcome and Remarks at the Coptic Christmas Service

Here's the video of Egyptian President al-Sisi at Saint Mark's Cathedral in ‘Abbasiyya. Although Ahram Online says he "attended" the Mass, it also indicates he left after greeting Pope Tawadros and making the speech (to the cheers and applause of the congregation) shown below. (A solemn Coptic Mass can run several hours.) clearly his gesture was well-received despite reports of very heavy security. His remarks centered around the theme "we are all Egyptians" and people should top using terms that differentiate among Egyptians.

Sisi Attends Christmas Service

Last year there was some surprise that Egypt's then-General al-Sisi did not show up for the Coptic Christmas Eve service on Eastern Christmas tonight. The previous year there had been much criticism of Muhammad Morsi skipping it. (In 2012 most of the Supreme Council of  the Armed Forces did attend. Husni Mubarak in his later years usually sent his son Gamal or senior Cabinet members.)

Al-Ahram

This year President Sisi has attended. Al-Ahram is describing it as the first time a sitting president has attended. (I thought others had, including Nasser, but I may be wrong. Presidents at least meet with the Coptic Pope before Christmas.)

Coptic Pope Tawadros II has been an outspoken supporter of Sisi's government.

Pope Francis and al-Sisi: Wait, Why Does That Ring a Bell? Or Two, Even?

The Vatican, yesterday. Leaving aside how this will make Muslim Brotherhood heads explode, note that Pope Francis chose his name after Saint Francis of Assisi. Wait: Assisi?

Don't tell the Egyptian State media, or they'll see it as proof positive that he's chosen by God. And I'm not referring to the Pope here.

And don't forget, the original St Francis of Assisi actually met  with the Ayyubid Sultan of Egypt, al-Malik al-Kamil, in 1219 during the Crusades.

Fra Angelico's version:

Cult of Personality? Certainly NOT!

Umm al-Dunya ("the Mother of the World," a proverbial name for Egypt), shedding a tear, and clad  of course in the colors of the Egyptian flag,  caresses ex-General Sisi (still in uniform though), and says "Thank you, you who returned my life and dignity to me." I think this came from Al-Yawm al-Sabi‘, an independent (but very pro-Sisi) daily (despite its name "Saturday"; it started as a weekly).

Al-Ahram Apologizes to NYT in English, Attacks it in Arabic

I recently noted The New York Times' critique of al-Ahram's misrepresentation of its coverage of President Sisi's new York visit.

As MadaMasr points out in this piece, the English language Ahram Online apologized profusely:

Al-Ahram daily, Egypt’s oldest and biggest newspaper, has issued an apology and an explanation for having earlier misquoted, quoted out of context and selectively quoted a New York Times story on Egypt by its correspondent, David Kirkpatrick.

In its statement Al-Ahram regretted that such a grave error would occur at a time when the current editorial management of the newspaper and the organisation as a whole is bent on restoring its credibility and asserting the traditions of proper and ethical journalism based on the highest standards of the profession.

It also noted that these efforts are being made at a time when bad practice and low ethical and professional standards are rampant in Egyptian journalism as a whole, which makes reform an uphill battle.

In explanation, Al-Ahram pointed out that the published review of Mr. Kirkpatrick’s story was taken from Egypt’s foremost news agency, MENA. Other Egyptian dailies published the same review, distortions included.

This is no excuse, Al-Ahram said in the apology, adding that it should have checked MENA’s review against the original text of the NYT story. Whereupon, an editorial decision has been issued banning the use of any MENA story without rigorous fact-checking.

Sadly, apologies for mistakes have been lacking in Egyptian journalism for a great many years. In issuing this apology Al-Ahram not only corrects a mistake, but also hopes to set an example in restoring the traditions of editorial responsibility to Egyptian journalism in general. 

How refreshing. But, as MadaMasr noted, while the English website apologizes without qualification, the "explanation" offered at the Arabic site, while acknowledging mistakes and blaming it on MENA, also takes aim at the NYT's and David Lirkpatrick's coverage of Egypt, claiming they "reject Sisi's course after June 30" and continue to support the "terrorist organization," the Muslim Brotherhood.

Maybe things haven't changed all that much.

NYT on Sisi at UN; Ahram on NYT on Sisi at UN

Egyptian Field Marshal President Sisi's speech to the UN General Assembly has been portrayed in the Egyptian media as ranking with Pericles' funeral oration, Lincoln's Gettysburg Address, Churchill's "We shall fight on the beaches," and such like. The New York Times has taken its own account of Sisi's speech and compared it in double column format with the al-Ahram Arabic version of their report. I really don't think I need to comment further here.

Sisi in New York: All is Forgiven?

Egyptian President Sisi's visit to New York for the General Assembly has seen him openly supporting the anti-ISIS colition (though has anyone noticed that ISIS spelled backwards is ...oh, never mind). And despite continuing anti-American conspiracy theories in Egyptian media, the US and Egypt seem to be one big happy family again:

And apparently, General Sisi may be covering bases for possible once and future Administrations as well:

A Year Since Egypt's "Not a Coup"

A year ago today General Sisi took the action that his supporters continue to insist was not a coup. A good time to rerun this, with apologies to Magritte:

Egypt a Year After Morsi

A year ago yesterday was June 30, the date of the now iconic "June 30 revolution," and Thursday will mark the anniversary of the military coup (sorry, military intervention) that removed President Muhammad Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood from power. Over the coming days I hope to offer a number of posts assessing the events of the past year. I'm sure whatever I say will offend someone, given the profound polarization both before and after the events of a year ago. But a few things seem clear to me: 1) Too many people have died in the past year, on both sides; 2) too many people are in prison, and not just Islamists but journalists, revolutionaries and the like; and many of those who supported Tamarrod and the June 30 protests last year are today disillusioned, though others welcome the ascendancy of the military.

We know now that the military leadership cooperated with Tamarrod before and during the demonstrations, and we also know that Sisi has admitted to having had dreams of himself in a leadership role. Just how scripted the events of June 30-July 3 last year were is still a bit fuzzy, but the Army seems to have moved, not reluctantly as it claimed, but with a carefully predetermined scenario.

More to come in the coming days.

Meet the Sisis

Why are these people not smiling? The head of their family is being inaugurated President of Egypt, and only Madame al-Sisi (above center) isn't looking downright glum.

Yesterday seems to have marked the first time Sisi's entire family — wife, three sons and their wives, daughter and her husband — appeared together in public.

A useful guide to the family has been all over social media:

For those who don't read Arabic:

Front row, right to left:
1. Dalia Hegazy, wife of Hasan al-Sisi. She is the daughter of Gen. Mahmoud Hegazy recently named Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces.
2. Hasan al-Sisi,  an engineer.
3. Intissar al-Sisi, the President's wife (see my earlier post). I had previously noted that she is a cousin of Sisi's; this specifies that she is the daughter of his maternal aunt.
4. Mustafa al-Sisi, an officer in the Administrative Control Authority.
5. Rida,  wife of Mustafa al-Sisi and daughter of his paternal aunt.

Second row, right to left:
1. Personal name not given, but described as the husband of Ayat al-Sisi, Sisi's only daughter, and the son of Khalid Foda, Governor of South Sinai. 
2. Ayat al-Sisi.
3. Mahmoud al-Sisi, an officer in General Intelligence.
4. Nuha al-Tuhami, wife of Mahmoud al-Sisi.

I note in passing that Mahmoud al-Sisi is an officer in General Intelligence, that his wife is named Nuha al-Tuhami, and that the current head of General Intelligence is Muhammad Farid al-Tuhami, onetime superior of Sisi's. Tuhami is not an uncommon name and there may be no connection. Do any readers know if this is a coincidence? [UPDATE: at least one newspaper says Mahmoud is in Military Intelligence, his father's old service, rather than General Intelligence.]

Adly Mansour Signs Off on Wave of Decreed "Legislation" on Eve of Depature

Really, I'm Still President

Egypt's Interim President Adly Mansour (remember him?) leaves office Sunday when Sisi is sworn in. He is, however, leaving with a bang: a string of legislative decrees (in he absence of Parliament, issued by the President), changing the number of seats in Parliament, altering the tax code, and making many other legal changes. Perhaps he's miffed that even before the elections, the press was talking about "President Sisi," or perhaps he's issuing decrees Sisi wants but would rather be able to blame someone else for.

Mansour, who will be returning to his role as head of the High Court, was not exactly a high profile, charismatic figure; he seemed to spend his less than a year as President in Sisi's shadow.

I'm reminded of the "Midnight Judges" case in US history. The second US President, John Adams, a Federalist, had been defeated by Thomas Jefferson, a Democratic-Republican, in the 1800 elections. Jefferson was due to take office on March 4, 1801. The outgoing Congress passed a new Judiciary Act creating new positions and, on March 3, the day before leaving office, Adams named 16 new Federalist circuit court judges and 42 new justices of the peace, also Federalists, presenting Jefferson with a partisan fait accompli. Jefferson's supporters derided the "Midnight Judges," and this gave rise to the critical Supreme Court case of Marbury vs. Madison, in which Chief Justice John Marshall laid down the principle that the Supreme Court had the power to rule acts of Congress unconstitutional.

Nevertheless, I suspect that Adly was not issuing these decrees without Sisi's prior consent, perhaps so Sisi could later say, "I didn't do that, it was that other guy, whatever his name was!"

And despite the parallel, Adly Mansour was no John Adams, and if Sisi turns out to be a new Thomas Jefferson, Egypt will be very lucky, and I will be pleasantly astonished.

Intissar Amer (Madame al-Sisi): First Lady or Invisible Consort? The Many Styles of Egypt's First Ladies

The photo above shows a rare appearance of then-Field Marshal Sisi in public with his wife, Intissar Amer. It dispelled rumors that she wears he full veil, but indications so far re that she will keep a low public profile when she becomes Egypt's First Lady. During the Presidencies of Anwar Sadat and Husni Mubarak, when the title "First Lady" was applied as a semi-official title and the incumbents had a highly-visible public profile. made the President's wife a public figure on he world stage, but not all of Egypt's first ladies have been as high-profile  as Jehan Sadat and Suzanne Mubarak.

Under the monarchy, of  course, the queens had a high public profile. Fuad I's Queen, Nazli, and Farouq's Queens, Farida and, after their divorce, Nariman, were given the public roles due to royalty on the European model. Of Middle Eastern monarchies, Egypt and Jordan gave their queens high levels of publicity and  public role, unlike Morocco or the Arab Gulf monarchies. But there has been considerable variation since the fall of the monarchy. Omitting transitional and interim figures:

Muhammad Naguib's wife, ‘A'isha Muhammad Labib, who was at least his second wife, played no real public role and remains little known. Some references even give her the first name ‘Aziza.

Nasser and Tahia's Wedding

Gamal ‘Abdel Nasser's wife had a more public role, though not nearly as visible as her two successors. Tahia Kazem, also called Tahia ‘Abdel Nasser,was the daughter of an Iranian father and Egyptian-Iranian mother. She was frequently photographed with her husband and children but did not have the high profile public role of her two successors.

During Nasser's Presidency

Tahia, who died in 1990, wrote a memoir of her life with Nasser which was not intended for publication. It was finally published in 2011 in Arabic, and last year in English. She thus joined, belatedly, Jehan Sadat in publishing her memoirs.

Jehan Sadat

Anwar Sadat's wife, Jehan, became the first Egyptian First Lady to play a major role in public, and to achieve international fame.in her own right. Jehan Safwat Ra'ouf, better known as Jehan El Sadat, married Sadat in 1949, shortly after his divorce from his first wife, Iqbal Mahdi, by whom he had three daughters. Jehan was the teenaged daughter of an Egyptian doctor and his British wife. (Many Egyptians believe that her mother was actually Maltese, but public documents show her mother was from Sheffield, as she asserts in her memoir. Some suggest the Maltese rumor may have originated when the Free Officers did not want to seem linked to the British occupation.) During the Sadat years the term First Lady (al-Sayyida al-Ula) began to be regularly, if unofficially, used. After Sadat's assassination, Jehan worked to keep his legacy alive, in part through the Anwar Sadat Chair at the University of Maryland. where she is a senior fellow.

Suzanne Mubarak

Husni Mubarak's wife. Suzanne Thabet, officially known as Suzanne Mubarak, is, like her predecessor, the daughter of an Egyptian doctor and a British mother, in her case a Welsh nurse. Like her predecessor she had a high profile, founded or was patron of schools and charities, and is believed to have been a strong supporter that her younger son Gamal should succeed his father. She was reported to be writing her memoirs before the Revolution broke out, and after the revolution Rose al-Youssef published what it claimed were excerpts, but many believe these, such as other leaks purporting to be her husbands memoirs, are a hoax.The source is highly dubious, to be generous.

Muhammad Morsi's wife, Nagla' ‘Ali Mahmoud, was a striking departure from her two fashionable predecessors. She wore the hijab, flatly refused to be called First Lady (saying she preferred "Umm Ahmad"), but she did give occasional interviews and discuss her role.

Which brings us to Madame Sisi, Intissar Amer. Sisi has said that they met in secondary school and he married her on graduation from the Military Academy in 1977. She is said to dislike public appearances and has not pursued a career, preferring to raise her family. She does not dress as conservatively as rumors speculated, but modestly, at least based on that one photo, but from what is known of her she is likelier to follow the Tahia Nasser model than the Jehan Sadat or Suzanne Mubarak one.

Schleifer Challenges the Wesern Conventional Wisdom on the Elections

While I have some doubt about President-elect al-Sisi's prospects, based on the vagueness of his program, the problems of the country and the excessive expectations of his supporters, I also know that the apparent low turnout does not automatically mean, as some Western pundits seem to be concluding, that there is widespread support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Abdullah Schleifer knows Egypt very well, and he makes this point forcefully in his column at Al Arabiya: "Sisi wins, the turnout is low, and critics reign supreme."

While he's more optimistic about Sisi than I am, he rightly notes the fragility of the Brotherhood's 2012 victory, which it then treated as a solid mandate, overplaying a weak hand. While he recognizes the Brotherhood and leftist boycott was a factor in the turnout, he also notes:

But among the abstainers, far, far greater in number were two other constituencies that actually overlapped into one. A large number of prospective voters who remained pro-Sisi but were convinced that Sisi would win so overwhelmingly, that there was no need for them to spend hours standing in lines to vote. And secondly there were a large number of voters who remained pro-Sisi and anti-MB, but now lacked the passion, after the passage of more than ten months, that had inspired the earlier super enthusiasm. Add to that mix of overconfidence and complacency the unbearable heat wave that swept over Egypt for all three days of voting, but particularly on Tuesday with temperature around 40 C or higher. The voting centers remained open till 9pm but these past few nights the heat wave did not ease up until several hours later in the night. And when the government declared Tuesday a holiday for public sector employees and for the banks, it became a national holiday and few of the many who were over-confident and complacent felt compelled to leave their homes, however modest, to stand in line in the far hotter streets.

His piece is a useful corrective to the conventional wisdom.

Egypt Claims Turnout Matched 2012. Oh, and Sisi Won

The unofficial results in Egypt show Sisi winning with 96.93% of the vote. For all those nostalgic and hoping he's a new Nasser, it's a Nasser style election result.

On the turnout issue, unofficially total votes were 25,597,380.

In the 2012 Morsi runoff, the total was 25,577,511.

The desire to beat the 2012 turnout was achieved with under 20,000 votes to spare, (If you accept the turnout numbers, which are sure to engender much skepticism. On Tuesday there was panic at the low turnout, so presumably everyone came out on day 3?)

Supposedly, Sisi had to match the 2012 turnout to claim credibility. But many will question whether the results themselves are credible. And even though the gross number of (claimed) votes is higher, the turnout percentage, around 46% isower than the 52% in 2012 due to more eligible voters.

Did Egypt's Added Day Increase Turnout?

After the added third day of voting, election officials are claiming close to 40% turnout or 21 million people, still sharply down from the 26 million in 2012. On the other hand, The Egyptian Center for Media Studies and Public Opinion (Takamol Masr)  is claiming that only 7.5% of the electorate actually turned out.

Whichever is accurate, clearly, Sisi's hopes for a turnout at least as big as 2012 were not fulfilled.

Disappointing as the turnout my have been, there are no surprises in the vote count; as the results are gradually announced, Ahram Online is posting the totals live. This was the count just a few minutes ago:

 Cliffhanger.

Egypt's Election Mess: Which is More Damaging, the Low Turnout or the Desperate, Panicked Response?

A polling place

The decision to extend voting another day in order to increase turnout in Egypt, fearing that low turnout will undercut the credibility of Field Marshal al-Sisi's election, has been accompanied by such seemingly desperate efforts to get out the vote as to give the impression of panic on the part of the government. Business owners have given workers time off and demanded to see their inked fingers to prove that they voted; fines are threatened against boycotters. Coptic Pope Tawadros II appeared on TV to urge all Copts to vote, and a group of sheikhs said the Prophet himself opposed electoral boycotts. (I want to check the hadith on that one.) TV commentators were frantically trying to get people to vote, denouncing boycotters as traitors and such. But if turnout is below 50%, does that mean most of the country are traitors?  One urged women to deny their husbands their favors if the husbands didn't vote.

Few are likely to assume that they are being urged to vote for Hamdeen Sabbahi. Sisi is going to win, but if the turnout is below that Morsi received in 2012 (26 million, 52% of eligible voters), his claims to enormous support will seem hollow. After the second day of voting today, officials said turnout had reached 37%, but that is still disappointing, and the Sabbahi campaign had been citing much lower numbers. (Nor did it help that Sisi publicly expressed hope in one of his last pre-vote inrerviews for a turnout of 40 million, which would be 80% of the electorate, setting the bar impossibly high.)

Muslim Brotherhood supporters are the most obvious group boycotting, but reports also suggest young people are not voting, perhaps disillusioned by the foreordained result.

In the Nasser, Sadat, and most of the Mubarak years, turnout numbers were routinely inflated or just invented. But that was before everyone had a video camera in their pocket and the ability to tweet photos worldwide in an instant. Photos and videos of empty polling places, like the one at the top of this post, are all over the Internet. And social media is full of direct testimony:

The return of Bassem Youssef's satirical TV show, which was put on hiatus so as not to unduly "influence" the vote, has now been postponed again. Obviously, the auhorities are sensitive about what is looking like an electoral debacle.

I suspect the panicky, desperate responses today are going to make the authorities look worse than the poor turnout will.

Here's a subtitled selection of talk show hosts and commentators, most of whom blame the public for shirking their civic duties:

Today is the Memorial Day Holiday in the US

Accordingly, I have family-related plans and won't be blogging. It is also the first day of the Egyptian elections. If by chance Hamdeen Sabbahi surges to an early lead I will immediately jump on the first passing flying pig or rainbow-colored unicorn and post something. Barring that or an alien invasion, see you Tuesday.