First Vanunu, Now This: Revisiting the 1979 Vela "Double Flash"

Perhaps because of the Iranian nuclear agreement, there seems to be increased discussion of Israel's nuclear arsenal. Eyebrows were certainly raised when Mordechai Vanunu, long imprisoned and then forbidden to speak publicly for revealing details of Israel's deterrent, was interviewed on Israeli television on Septmber 4 and allowed to speak freely. That raised the question of whether the Israeli security establishment is prepared to be more open about its capabilities.

Now, Leonard Weiss revisits another old debate in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: "Flash from the past: Why an Apparent Israeli Nuclear Test in 1979 Matters Today."

For those who came in late, on September 22, 1979, a US intelligence satellite tasked to look for evidence of atmospheric nuclear testing, Vela 6911, detected a double flash where the Indian Ocean and Atlantic come together off South Africa. The double flash was characteristic of a nuclear explosion. It was speculated that it was either a South African test with Israeli assistance, or an Israeli test from a South African ship. (They were known to be cooperating at the time.) The US National Laboratories and the US Intelligence Community were convinced that it was indeed a nuclear test, but a scientific panel appointed by the government eventually declared the results inconclusive. Those familiar with the intelligence largely remained convinced it was real but the public perception was that it had been inconclusive.

Weiss's article revives the debate and reviews the evidence, allegations, and rumors. It's worth reading whether you're new to the debate or already familiar with it.

One Small Step for a Rat, Two Turtles and Some Worms . . .

Iran has launched a white rat, two turtles, and some worms into space. Although some wire services are reporting this as a satellite launch, and it came on the anniversary of Iran's first satellite launch, other accounts suggest that while Iran was testing a potential satellite carrier rocket, it was not an orbital mission, though there seems to be a suggestion the animal package was recovered. Here's a YouTube video:



The West is already expressing concern about Iran's space capabilities because obviously satellite launchers are also long-range missiles. But Iran's peaceful exploration of space ought not to be in itself a cause for alarm. They aren't going to shoot turtles at us.

My Take on those Hacked Predators

You probably already know this (it's yesterday's news) but it's been learned that Iraqi Shi‘ite insurgents (I'm guessing Mahdi Army but the linked report doesn't say that) had hacked the unencrypted video downfeeds of US Predator drones.

With a $25.95 piece of software readily available.

Note that word: Un. En. Crypted.

The earliest drones appeared decades ago. We used them in Vietnam. In the region, Israel was using them as early as Lebanon War I in 1982. According to the WSJ article linked above, we discovered the vulnerability in Bosnia in the '90s, "But the Pentagon assumed local adversaries wouldn't know how to exploit it, the officials said." Oh. The "wogs" aren't smart enough, huh? We're blaming Iran, apparently, and indeed Iranians seem pretty good with computers, both the opposition and the government seeking to block them. But we knew about the vulnerability since Bosnia?

Now, I understand they aren't able to control or redirect the Predators, but if they can see the visual feed, especially if they can do so in real time, they can know what we know, and that's a penetrated intelligence asset no matter how you cut it. They can know where the Predators are and tell their people to seek cover or get the hell out of there.

Now Lt. Gen. David Deptula, the head of the Air Force's unmanned programs and a rising star, quoted prominently in the WSJ article is someone I've even met at an Air Force Association reception (my wife works for AFA), and he's one of the smartest people out there, may head the Air Force some day, and had the guts to admit to all this. Good for him.

But if we knew about this in Bosnia, why are we addressing it now? Because the "ragheads" couldn't possibly master the technology? Never underestimate your adversary. On the eve of the Japanese onslaught in Southeast Asia in December 1941 — and, to quote Dave Barry, I am not making this up — an Australian officer posted in Singapore decided not to have blackouts because "the Japanese are myopic and cannot fly at night." Singapore was bombed that night. Also the Japanese were superstitious and could not fight in jungles so they could not land in Malaya and attack Singapore from the land. Wrong again. Oh, yes, and British and American intelligence were convinced that Japanese aircraft were inferior even though the Brits were given an intact Zero by the Chinese Nationalists and the Zero was superior to any British or American aircraft. The worst mistake in intelligence is assuming your enemy isn't as capable as you are.

Supposedly they used the $26 program SkyGrabber. At least last night when I was putting this piece together skygrabber.com was either offline or overloaded. Probably due to a surge of downloads in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and other places.

India Takes Possession of its First Israeli Phalcon

Some may recall a major spat between Israel and the United States back in 1997-2000 over the Israeli agreement to sell its Phalcon airborne warning and control system — essentially the functional equivalent of the US AWACS — to China. It became a major issue and ultimately Israel cancelled the deal. The US strongly objected to Israel transferring this capability to China.

Well, virtually the same defense package — Israel's Phalcon system mounted in a Russian Il-76 — has just been delivered to India.

Indian purchases of Israeli defense exports are increasing, and the Indian and Israeli space programs are increasingly cooperating: in 2008 Israel launched a satellite using an Indian launch vehicle capable of polar orbit from India's launch site, and last month India launched its own spy satellite using Israeli technology, reportedly as a means of improving its space-based surveillance following the Mumbai terrorist attacks.

One doesn't need an advanced degree in geopolitics to see the growing Israeli-Indian cooperation as a response to Pakistan's missile programs, nuclear programs, and the growing concerns about Pakistan's stability. The fact that the Phalcon sale to India, while delivered a bit later than anticipated, did not encounter the strong American opposition that the proposed sale to China had, is also of interest.