Moshe Ya'alon, Former General, Replaced as Israel Defense Minister by Avigdor Lieberman, Former Bouncer and Non-Veteran. Does Israel Feel More Secure Now?

Please forgive the multi-tiered headline, but I couldn't resist. You probably already know that in order to expand his coalition, Binyamin Netanyahu replaced his Defense Minister, retired General Moshe Ya'alon, of his own Likud Party, with Yisrael Beitenu's Avigdor Lieberman, who indeed was once a bouncer who did not serve in the IDF. Netanyahu had been trying to enlarge his fragile coalition and had been making overtures to Zionist Union (Labor) leader Isaac Herzog. Bringing the Opposition leader into the coalition would have tilted the coalition, now the most right-wing in Israel's history, a bit to the center-right. Bringing in Lieberman instead, moves it even farther right.

But reaction has been harshly critical beginning with Ya'alon himself, who chose not to go gentle into that good night. Instead of attending Lieberman's swearing-in on Sunday, he resigned effective Friday afternoon, and went out with several blasts at Netanyahu for abandoning him and defending hisown behavior. No dove himself, h criticized Israel's rightward drift.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak warned that the government was sowing the "seeds of fascism," while former Defense Minister Moshe Arens, once a Likud stalwart, wrote in a column in Ha'aretz, (paywalled) in which he said:

The coalition representation in the Knesset will increase to 67 from 61. But the price Likud’s leaders paid for these six extra votes is a heavy one for both the country and Likud – far heavier than they seem to realize. Their simple-minded explanation that a stable government is good for Israel and therefore replacing Ya’alon with Lieberman must be good for Israel is not likely to be accepted by most Israelis.

The defense minister is not just another of Israel’s many government ministers. He is by far the most important minister, shouldering direct responsibility for Israel’s security, the personal security of Israel’s citizens, and the lives of their children serving in the Israel Defense Forces.

Defenders of the murky deal to oust an xcellent defense minister offer an explanation: that in addition to the defense minister, many others are involved in taking decisions on defense matters – which presumably means that it’s not so important who the defense minister is. This shows an abject ignorance of the workings of the defense establishment.

All Israelis were lucky to have Ya’alon as defense chief these last few years, and this luck now seems to have run out. Choosing between an excellent defense minister serving in a narrow coalition and firing an excellent defense minister and obtaining a few more coalition votes should have been easy. But Benjamin Netanyahu made the wrong choice.

Tensions between the IDF command and the security services on the one hand and Netanyahu on the other hand have been bad for years due to disagreements over Iran and other issues, but the Ya'alon dismissal seems to have exacerbated the problem.

The Likud-Yisrael Beitenu Merger

The announcement that Benyamin Netanyahu's Likud Party and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu will merge prior to the January elections will, assuming is approved by the parties, create a consolidated rightwing secular bloc to fight the Israeli elections, something the two men (who often have been at odds on specific issues) calculate will strengthen their hold on power.

An early poll, however, suggests the merged party might win fewer seats than the two parties running separately, which might frustrate the intention, though they would still easily win the largest bloc of seats. It's also likely that the merger on the right will increase pressuire among the splintered parties of tf the center and left to form some sort of unified bloc of their own,

The calculus is not necessarily as simple as it sounds. Likud has always been a secular party of the right, but it has not been openly hostile to the religious parties, which are almost always necessary to coalition building. Lieberman's party, on the contrary, has been an outspoken opponent of the power of the religious bloc, and vigorously secularist like much of its ex-Soviet immigrant support base. In a year when military service for Yeshiva students has been a divisive issue in Israel, it will be interesting to see how a Likud-Yisrael Beitenu merger handles such issues.

One thing is clear: Yisrael Beitenu is clearly the junior partner. Netanyahu made clear that he never considered any merger plan that would have required a rotation of the Prime Ministership between the leaders: Netanyahu would serve ss PM the entire term. Lieberman seems content with this, acknowledging that compromises must be made.

The fragmented center-left parties have now had a gauntlet thrown down by the rightist parties, who are hoping to lock in their dominance of the Knesset. Whether the center-left can counter with some kind of bloc of their own, or whether indeed they are increasingly irrelevant, may become clearer as the campaign proceeds.

Last-Minute Netanyahu-Mofaz Deal Scuttles Elections, Upends Israeli Political Scene

In the early hours of Tuesday (tomorrow) morning, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Shaul Mofaz reportedly agreed on a government of national unity, canceling September elections after the Knesset had already passed the first reading of a motion to disperse (dissolve itself). Reports from Haaretz here and The Jerusalem Post here.

The immediate deal appears to give Kadima the right to work on modification of the Tal law, which involves exemption of haredi Yeshiva students from military service, and which has been declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. 

If, as initial reports indicate, Mofaz may become a Minister without Portfolio, which may seem odd since Kadima actually has more seats than Likud; on the other hand, Kadima was expected to lose heavily if elections were held.

How this may affect the threat of military action against Iran, which Mofaz opposes, remains to be seen. It also may lead to a moderation of the government's policies overall. One interesting issue will be the role of Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu Party, which has been the second largest in the government.

There is some political sense, however, in avoiding elections for now, as both Kadima and Likud might have stood to lose seats; in any event Netanyahu avoids having to campaign this year. But the eleventh-hour deal on the brink of Knesset dissolution came as a surprise, and if it holds — uncertain at this point I suspect — and doesn't unravel, it will transform the political scene.

If more details emerge tomorrow, I may have more to say,

Netanyahu-Lieberman-Turkey Dispute Spreads

That controversy over an Israeli back-channel meeting with the Turkish Foreign Minister in Zurich, with the approve of Binyamin Netanyahu but without telling Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is continuing to simmer. Lieberman is furious, though not yet threatening to pull Yisrael Beitenu out of the Cabinet. He's meeting today with Bibi to demand it not be repeated and also that the PM stop acceding to governments that refuse to meet with Lieberman.

And Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is in trouble with critics as well.

And since I so often link to dovish Ha'aretz, here's an op-ed from the hardline Jerusalem Post.

Israel and Turkey: A Strategic Shift of the First Order

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is being quoted all over the place as saying, while on a visit to France, that Israel is "the principal threat to regional peace" in the Middle East. In return, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman says the problem is not Turkey, it's Erdogan; Lieberman is comparing Erdogan to Mu‘ammar Qadhafi and Hugo Chavez. (But Erdogan's AKP won 341 of 550 seats in the 2007 Parliamentary elections, which would seem to suggest he's got the voters behind him.)

Now my views of Avigdor Lieberman's diplomatic skills are easily found in the archive; and Erdogan's AKP party's Islamist credentials are well known; and Lieberman may be deliberately playing to the Turkish military. But the point I want to make is that one of Israel's prime strategic achievements in recent decades has been its ability to forge a strategic alignment with a Muslim country in the Middle East, Turkey, that in effect outflanked its Arab neighbors, put an Israeli ally and traditional Syrian rival at Syria's back door, and created a geopolitical reality that was clearly felt in Damascus (and Beirut). In recent years, as Turkish-Syrian relations have warmed, Turkey has become a key interlocutor between Israel and Syria.

Israel has made what I and many of its friends (and a great many Israelis) think are profound blunders in recent years: the Gaza operation, which helped sour the Turkish friendship; the open battle with the Obama Administration over settlements; and a profound alienation in its ties with the European Union. But the souring of the Turkish link may be the most strategically and geopolitically unwise of them all (unless the quarrel with Obama worsens to the point of souring the US alliance). And some of it was unnecessary. The Danny Ayalon insult to the Turkish Ambassador (earlier reports here and here and here) was a deliberate diplomatic affront that led to a threat by Turkey to withdraw its Ambassador.

Of all the diplomatic and public relations gaffes of the Netanyahu government and the Lieberman/Ayalon Foreign Ministry, the deepening spat with the US is at least over a fundamentysal difference: the settlements issue. The Turkish quarrel is much more peripheral and seems to amount to petulance over Erdogan's criticisms of Operation Cast Lead. The latest remarks by Erdogan and Lieberman raise the probability that Israel is throwing away its one ally in the Muslim Middle East over a spat. It strikes me as a strategic blunder of the first order.

Danny Ayalon's Selective and Eclectic Diplomacy

Some Foreign Ministries actually practice diplomacy and let other parts of their governments insult friends and allies. I suppose it's no surprise that Avigdor Lieberman's Foreign Ministry in Israel isn't one of them, but Danny Ayalon, the Deputy Foreign Minister, actually has a diplomatic background (I won't use the stereotyped cliche of referring to Lieberman as an "ex-bouncer" because it' s stereotyping but oh, I guess I just did.)

Ayalon was Ambassador to the United States from 2002 to 2006, yet he has just snubbed a US Congressional delegation, creating puzzlement since they were there at the invitation of a Jewish organization that the Netanyahu government is not fond of, J Street, which few other than the Israeli Foreign Ministry confuse with Hamas. This has led to an apology by a senior official, and has led to memories of the earlier snub of the Turkish Ambassador which also produced an apology. Or two.

On the other hand, Ayalon, while snubbing friendly Turks and Americans, was hale-fellow-well-met with a senior Saudi Prince, though that also had the advantage of embarrassing a longtime back-channel interlocutor with a public YouTube video.

And Ayalon's the professional diplomat on Lieberman's senior staff.

Turkey-Israel Feud Update

UPDATED AGAIN: Somebody got back on their meds. Ayalon has apologized to Turkey. Somebody above his pay grade (I'd guess Netanyahu since it's hard to picture Avigdor Lieberman doing it) has stepped in here.

The plot thickens. Israel moved the meeting up by several days. This sounds more and more like a deliberate embarrassment.

Yes, there are issues between Turkey and Israel, including the controversial "Valley of the Wolves," but to publicly, in the media, insult the diplomatic representative of the earliest Muslim country to recognize Israel seems downright petty and pretty undiplomatic.

Unlike Avigdor Lieberman, Deputy FM Danny Ayalon actually has considerable diplomatic experience (including Ambassador to the US), though he's also Yisrael Beitenu.

Ironies: Lieberman Compliments ‘Erekat's Hebrew

This would actually be funny if it weren't also so much a crystallization of a major problem. Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's Foreign Minister, reportedly said that he was surprised to be greeted by Palestinian negotiator Sa‘eb ‘Erekat in excellent Hebrew. So Lieberman tells reporters: "Erekat — I didn't know he had such good Hebrew."

Here's the irony: ‘Erekat was born in East Jerusalem (then Jordanian) in 1955. From the age of 12, when Israel occupied East Jerusalem, he has been surrounded by Hebrew speakers. As a professor at Najah University in Nablus and in his many other positions related to the peace process he has had to interact regularly and constantly with Israelis. He studied in the US and has a PhD from Bradford in Britain. He has been a senior negotiator with the Israelis since Madrid in 1991.

Avigdor Lieberman was born as Evet Lieberman (hence his popular nickname "Yvette" in Israel) in Kishinev in the then-Soviet Union, now Chisinau, Moldova. His education was mostly in things like agriculture, though he also famously worked as a bouncer. He came to Israel in 1978, eleven years after Sa‘eb ‘Erekat found himself under Israeli occupation. Lieberman now lives on a settlement in the West Bank. So Hebrew is a second language for both men, but ‘Erekat got a head start. I wouldn't be shocked if ‘Erekat's was actually better than Lieberman's, but that would be far too ironic.

Sa‘eb ‘Erekat speaks good Hebrew, as a great many Palestinians do. I'm glad Lieberman is impressed. How's your Arabic, Mr. Lieberman? You are the Foreign Minister.

Yossi Melman on Lieberman in Africa

Ha'aretz' Yossi Melman has an interesting piece today on Avigdor Lieberman's tour of five African nations, suggesting that despite a lot of publicity about development and health and water issues, defense sales may be a major theme. He notes:

On a level that is even more secretive, there is the hope of developing intelligence ties and cooperation in the effort against international jihadist elements, and especially countering the activities of Iran in some of these African countries. This only becomes obvious when the composition of the delegation is analyzed carefully: in addition to the Foreign Ministry officials accompanying Lieberman, there is a delegation from the Defense Ministry's foreign assistance department, Sibat, and also a group of representatives of the intelligence community, including a Mossad official from the Tevel wing, which is responsible for the organization's foreign ties. Similarly, along with representatives from civilian industrial and development firms, there are agents from the country's defense firms.

The Foreign Ministry and the Israel Export Institute believe that there is at least another $1 billion worth of business potential in Africa, in addition to the $3 billion that Israeli firms already export in goods and services to the continent. Lieberman began his trip in Ethiopia, where he met with the country's prime minister and its foreign minister, putting the emphasis on the civilian assistance that Israel provides. The assistance comes in the form of biotechnology and agriculture, advanced water-purification technologies, and medical assistance in combating AIDS. The Foreign Ministry funding these projects out of its own budget, at the cost of several hundred thousand dollars a year.

But Ethiopia is also a key strategic state for Israel, with a long tradition of friendship and cooperation between the countries in military and intelligence matters. Ethiopia's importance lies in its being situated on the Horn of Africa,near a number of Arab states, and overlooking the sea routes to Eilat and the Suez Canal. Moreover, in recent years Iran has been increasingly active in the area, as have been Al-Qaida agents, particularly in nearby Somalia. Naturally these are issues that were discussed during Lieberman's meetings, even though they were not mentioned in the media briefings.

Besides Ethiopia, Lieberman visited Kenya, Nigeria, and is headed to Ghana and Uganda. No Israeli Foreign Minister has been to any country south of the Sahara except Ethiopia since 1991.

Israel is believed to have had longstanding covert links with Ethiopia (and, it is said, Ethiopia's rival Eritrea), but Lieberman attempts to be exploring new relationships with the sub-Saharan region. The defense link is particularly important: Israel is a major arms exporter, though this is not generally publicized; it has sold arms to a number of African coutnries in the past, and appears to be seeking to revive that market.

Ya'alon Taken to the Woodshed

Israel's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Ya'alon, a former Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, has been called on the carpet by Binyamin Netanyahu after some highly controversial remarks in a highly controversial setting. It's the latest of several incidents that suggest that Netanyahu is having more trouble keeping the right wing of his own Likud in line than he is dealing with his curious coalition partners in Labor.

Ya'alon, who's been pretty outspoken since taking off his uniform, managed to say, among other things, that 1) he wasn't afraid of the Americans (perhaps implicitly suggesting Netanyahu was?); that 2) the "elites" and the Peace Now Movement were "a virus," that 3) when he had been in the Army he had said that "the politicians brought the dove of peace and the Army had to clean up after it," and, to round it all out, he said this 4) to a rightwing Likud faction led by Moshe Feiglin, a far right Likudnik and head of the Jewish Leadership Movement faction of Likud. Netanyahu is no fan of Feiglin's (supposedly having called him a "cancer" in the Likud), and finding his Deputy Premier talking to Feiglin's people and insulting "elites," Peace Now, the Americans, and arguably Netanyahu himself was a bit much. Oh, and 5) he apparently said something negative about the Supreme Court as well.

Oh, and to add insult to injury,

In the brutal heat of August, when most of his colleagues, including the prime minister, were on vacation or keeping a low profile, Ya'alon this week gamboled across the hills of Judea and Samaria between illegal settler outposts, and declared when standing among the ruins of the evacuated settlement of Homesh that it should be rebuilt.

That's from this article in Ha'aretz, admittedly no fan of Netanyahu or Ya'alon.

Some additional background from the left-leaning Ha'aretz on Ya'alon's "subpar unerstanding of the media," on Ya'alon and Feiglin, and on Netanyahu's reaction to all this.

Obviously Ha'aretz has its own biases, but it's interesting to see that the more right-leaning Jerusalem Post writes the lede to the called-on-the carpet story thus:

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu did not fire Vice Premier Moshe Ya'alon on Thursday for controversial comments he made on Sunday in a speech to the Likud's Manhigut Yehudit forum of Netanyahu's nemesis, Moshe Feiglin.

Ya'alon participated in a high-level consultation with Netanyahu and other top officials after the meeting, indicating that Ya'alon had not been fired from the full cabinet, the security cabinet or the prestigious six-member inner cabinet.

So the best anyone seems able to say is, he wasn't fired.

I'm no great fan of Bibi Netanyahu's but I find myself almost feeling empathy for him: his Foreign Minister, who is by no stretch of the imagination diplomatic, is being investigated and may have to step down; his Deputy Premier has just been taken to the woodshed for seeming to side with an enemy of Netanyahu's within the Likud. All his troubles are coming from the right.

An odd aside I noted in one of the stories: the meeting with Ya'alon, the calling on the carpet, took place at the Defense compound at Hakirya in Tel Aviv. Now the Minister of Strategic Affairs may keep his office there (it's a recently invented portfolio — invented, oddly enough, for Avigdor Lieberman in Ehud Olmert's day — and I don't know where it's based), but that's normally the Defense Minister's turf, and the Defense Minister is Ehud Barak, of Labor.

Anyway, the Israeli right seems to be in disarray at the moment.

Lieberman on the Way Out?

The Israeli Police National Fraud Squad has determined that Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman should be indicted for crimes including money laundering, bribery, obstruction of justice and harassing a witness. Also read the backgrounder that asks how this happened and adds:

How did this happen to Avigdor Lieberman, perhaps the most careful man in the history of Israeli politics - to reach the point where the police are recommending that serious charges be brought against him? Human error is to blame. A group of documents that Lieberman forgot at a certain office reached the attorney general and eventually led to the unequivocal police recommendation.

Lieberman's future is clearly in doubt, and it's not the only problem Netanyahu faces.

The Attorney General doesn't have to move for an indictment even though the police investigation recommended one, but if he did, apparently Netanyahu will let Lieberman choose his successor as Foreign Minister.

Now, all you have to do is read the Avigdor Lieberman topic label in my archives to note that I have never confused the man with Thomas Jefferson or even, say, Abba Eban. As head of a nation's diplomacy — any nation's diplomacy — he would be an anomaly, to say the least. But if the man is an embarassment as Foreign Minister and may lose his job for gross corruption, why should he be the person to choose his successor?

Just asking.

Lieberman Goes to South America to "Curb Iranian Influence." No, Seriously.

Avigdor Lieberman is embarking on a ten-day trip to South America. Quote from AP on the Haaretz website: "The Foreign Ministry said Monday that FM Avigdor Lieberman is heading to South America to curb Iranian influence on the continent." Day Two: Take Down Hugo Chavez? Day Three: Cure the Lame?

Seriously though:

Lieberman's 10-day visit to South America, the first in several years by an Israeli foreign minister, is set to begin today with Brazil, before moving on to Argentina, Peru and Colombia.

. "Lieberman is a racist and a fascist," Valter Pomar, secretary of international relations for the Workers Party (PT), told Haaretz. "The Brazilian left is organizing protests against him and against the policy he represents."

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, also a PT member, will meet Lieberman today in Brasilia. "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion," a spokesman for the Brazilian foreign minister said. "Pomar's view certainly does not represent the government's position."

The president of Brazil's Jewish community, Dr. Claudio Luiz Lottenberg, said he had not heard about planned demonstrations. "We haven't had state visits for a long time and a bad environment has been created. Now we need to restart relations with a fresh attitude," he said.

Lottenberg, who will host Lieberman in Sao Paulo, said he will tell the foreign minister to try to refocus relations on "more than just trade."

Lieberman's trip to South America is aimed at helping curb Iranian influence there, the foreign ministry said.

Good luck, Yvette. (That really is his nickname, or more correctly the popular spelling of his real Belarussian name, which is Evet, now transformed into Avigdor.)

Now Lieberman in Feud with His Own Ministry

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, no stranger to controversy, now seems to be in a feud with his own Foreign Ministry, which, of course, he heads. According to this report in this morning's Haaretz, a number of highly critical reports about Foreign Ministry officials and serving diplomats have appeared on a Russian-language website known as IzRus. Lieberman is himself Belarussian and his party, Yisrael Beitenu, draws much of its support from Russian immigrants, so the Foreign Ministry staff apparently believe Lieberman is behind the leaks.

It would appear these charges are not just of ordinary misconduct or corruption, according to the report in Haaretz quoting the website:

Several very negative reports about the ministry appeared on IzRus, considered one of Israel's five leading Russian-language Web sites, in the past few days. But the diplomats' anger reached its peak Wednesday morning, after the publication of an uncredited article, with the headline: "Orgies, bribery and fights in the Foreign Ministry: The Liebermans would not be accepted there."

The story claimed the ministry and its overseas missions are fertile ground for "orgies, sex with minors, sexual harassment and bribery." The author even claimed that most of the cases are still being hidden from the public. In addition, the writer accused the ministry of discriminating against immigrants, and Russian-speakers in particular, in appointments and admittance to the diplomat training course. The article also states, however, that Lieberman's appointment as foreign minister has changed the situation, increasing optimism among Israeli diplomats with a Russian background. "Native-born Israelis, especially at the highest levels, were scared their property had passed into foreign hands," the unknown author wrote.

After senior officials demanded that Gal reply to the vilification, the director-general's office told Haaretz Wednesday: "We are disgusted by the claims in the report on the IzRus Internet site and deny them completely. Foreign Ministry employees are a dedicated and professional group that operates around the world day and night to advance the affairs of Israel."

Lieberman's tour as Foreign Minister continues to be, well, interesting. I have no idea if he is in any way involved personally in these charges, and since I don't read Russian I won't link to the site lest I link to something inappropriate.

Sarkozy Wants Lieberman Out

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has reportedly told Binyamin Netanyahu in a private message that he should get rid of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, leading to sharp reactions by the Israeli Foreign Ministry about interference in its internal affairs. But the message was a private one, not a public denunciation, and a Haaretz editorial agrees:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy's request of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he replace Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman exposes a sad truth: At present Israel does not have a functioning foreign minister. The international community refuses to speak to a politician who is considered racist in the wake of the campaign conducted by his party, Yisrael Beiteinu, against Arab citizens during the recent Knesset election campaign. There is not and cannot be any other way to interpret Sarkozy's comparison between Lieberman and far-right French politician Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Lieberman has his own troubles at home, including a police investigation, and given the current tensions between Washington and Israel, a more effective Foreign Minister might start to make sense to Netanyahu.

Today is a deadline day so posting will be light until sometime this afternoon.

Stealth Diplomacy? Lieberman Goes to London; British Barely Notice

Avigdor Lieberman visited London yesterday for his first official visit, meeting with Foreign Secretary David Miliband and leaders of the British Jewish community. If you didn't hear about it, you aren't alone. For whatever reason, the visit received little coverage, and there was no press availability for the British media. The Jerusalem Post headline that the visit was "shrouded in secrecy" may be a bit much, since the Israeli media covered it, but the British media seems to have been unusually (and uncharacteristically) silent.

Certainly Lieberman is a controversial figure, and presumably neither the British nor the Israelis wanted to attract demonstrations and protests, though apparently there were some of those anyway, at least as covered by Iran's Press TV. I haven't done a comprehensive search but it doesn't appear in the headlines of the BBC's Middle East website, despite their reporting on Netanyahu visiting King ‘Abdullah II in Aqaba, and other diplomatic journeys.

A search of Google news also doesn't show much from the British media: something called The Palestine Telegraph covered it; otherwise it's mostly Israeli media and some Arab media that are paying attention to it. Right now the only British coverage I can find is on the Foreign Office's website, and even then the meeting between Lieberman and Foreign Secretary Miliband was, at this writing, fourth on the FO's list of news of the day, though admittedly I accessed it today and the visit occurred yesterday. (In the Foreign Office photo Lieberman is smiling broadly; Miliband is not. I'd post the photo but unlike US Government photos, which are public domain, the Brits claim Crown Copyright, so I'll refer you to the FO site instead.)

The first meeting of a new Foreign Minister with the British Foreign Secretary is not, usually, "shrouded in secrecy." It does suggest that Lieberman is indeed going to be something of an issue with many Western governments, who may seek to keep him at arm's length even while doing the diplomatic necessities.

Weekend Reading

As I've done on other Fridays, a collection of recent articles to tide you over for the weekend:

• Jihadists Studying Western Scholars Studying Jihad: It gives Thomas Hegghammer at Jihadica a chance to use the word "omphaloskeptic," which is almost worth the time reading it in itself (contemplating your navel, for the Greek-challenged), but it's an intriguing subject in its own right. As we study them, are they studying us studying them? Another take on the same subject from Arab Media Shack.

• Israel's 61st independence day had only one survivor who had been present at the signing of the declaration of independence in 1948, a 94-year old.

• Resisting the mass hamicide: Egypt's pig farmers setting up roadblocks as Egypt tries to kill 300,000 pigs.

• And, now that the UN has criticized Egypt for the pig kill despite the lack of any cases of swine flu or any proof pigs wre involved, Egypt now says it was a general health measure to end "disorderly pig rearing," especially those raised in garbage dumps by the zabbalin, mostly Christian garbage collectors.

• Ehud Barak on Avigdor Lieberman: "I think that the positions [Foreign Minister Avigdor] Lieberman is articulating behind closed doors are far more balanced and, I would say, more responsible than what some of his [public] declarations suggest." A rather diplomatic way of saying, "he's not as crazy as he sounds."? But this is your country's chief diplomat we're talking about, here, and its Defense Minister is saying it.
  

Lots of Suggested Weekend Reading

As I've done on other Fridays, before I take the weekend off I'll leave you with some interesting and important links for your edification and diversion (though if stuff happens I'll post again later):

• I've already mentioned the recent coming apart of the Syrian exiled opposition. Josh Landis at Syria Comment — the blog for Syrian issues — posts a couple of articles (one of them in Arabic) that go into the nitty-gritty details. Highly recommended.

• Natan Sharansky will be the new head of the Jewish Agency. Heroic as he was when he was being held by the Soviets, since coming to Israel he has been pretty hardline at times. Putting him in charge of a major fundraising agency would seem ill-advised, almost like making somebody like Avigdor Lieberman your chief diplomat. Oh, wait . . .

• Speaking of Lieberman, this interview isn't very cheering. He tells the Jerusalem Post that he's been meeting with all these foreign representatives (he's Foreign Minister, isn't that his job?) and (he seems shocked, shocked) they keep using all these slogans about "land for peace" and a "two-state solution." Umm, yes, those "slogans" do seem pretty widespread among just about everybody, including a lot of Israelis, and there is that "roadmap" we keep talking about that speaks of both. The real issue, he seems to suggest, is Iran. So why is everybody talking about land for peace? (But if Israel had peace with Syria and the Palestinians, how would Iran be able to retain a foothold in the Levant? Wouldn't a Syrian peace undermine Hizbullah and Hamas? Oh, sorry, I guess that's a slogan. Must avoid those.) The whole interview will appear Tuesday, apparently. Pardon me if I keep thinking that somewhere out there, the late Abba Eban is picking up RPM speed as he rolls over in his grave.

• The Moor Next Door gives us a brief update on events in Mauritania, where the current military strongman recently "stepped down" (not really) so he can run for President. Since very few of us have any experience of Mauritania, and with the exception of Brother Leader Qadhafi (who is on a Mauritania kick lately as a "mediator" between factions) and, occasionally, the Moroccans and Algerians, nobody in the Arab world pays much attention to this Arab country either, it's useful to have these updates. I recall a good many years ago being at a reception for Arab military attachés and chatting up the Mauritanian military attaché because the poor fellow, a colonel I think, was standing all alone. None of his Arab brethren were talking to him. Or seemed to know who he was.
  

• I mentioned earlier (in last Friday's roundup, in fact) that Lebanon was dealing with a sensational Israeli spy case involving a General of the security services who had been identified only as "General Adib" by his first name: now he's been indicted and fully identified, and his wife and nephew are also charged.

• Walid Jumblatt, the Druze za‘im of Mount Lebanon (and I've always contended the best translation of za‘im is "Godfather" in the Corleone sense, but that's another issue: officially it means "leader" or maybe "boss") has alienated his Maronite allies of the moment by saying something bad about the Maronites in a discussion with Druze elders. He has apologized. I had to read about five different sites trying to find out what he was apologizing for, since it's generally been reported as one of those "I misspoke, I apologize" stories that never say what he actually said. This is the only thing I've found yet, in the Daily Star, that (while burying the lede) suggests he called the Maronites a "bad race." I need to find the Arabic for this since I'm still unclear what he actually said. I thought they were a religion.
  

"Believe Me, America Accepts All Our Decisions"

Avigdor Lieberman, in his first full-scale interview since becoming Israel's Foreign Minister, has said that the US will not put forth peace initiatives unless Israel agrees, and said, "Believe me, America accepts all our decisions."

Professors Mearsheimer and Walt must be feeling vindicated right about now. Lieberman seems to be saying Israel is directing US policy on the Middle East. Whatever one may think of the power of the "Israel lobby," it is a rather undiplomatic boast to be coming from Israel's Foreign Minister. I suspect this quote will soon be all over the Arab press. It's too blatant to let pass without comment.

The Haaretz story on this says that while ‘Omar Suleiman is coming to Israel, there were "no plans" for him to meet Lieberman, seeming to contradict the reports yesterday that he would do so. [UPDATED: They met.]

The signals coming from Netanyahu and Lieberman on the one hand and from Obama, George Mitchell and Rahm Emanuel in recent days on the other suggest that the US and Israel are really talking past each other at the moment. None of this augurs well for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian track, or the more potentially explosive issue of a possible Israeli strike on Iran. And Lieberman's remark suggests a tendency to assume that the US will take its lead from Israel on Middle East policies. That may have been true at times, but the Obama Administration seems to be signalling that it's not true now.

Some Links to Check Out

No real work on my part here, but some things you should be reading:

• Marc Lynch on Obama in Turkey and Iraq. Good assessment, I think. Marc Lynch deserves your daily readership. I'm a neophyte; Abu Aardvark has been around since the early blogosphere. Of course that doesn't mean you shouldn't read me, too.

• This story is intriguing. Aluf Benn is not a sensationalist reporter, but he is clearly stating that the Obama Administration may be willing to take on Netanyahu over the two state solution and other issues. For an Israeli newspaper on the left of center (Haaretz) to suggest a major US-Israeli confrontation is possible is intriguing indeed.

• If you read my earlier link to the Egyptian short story The Earthquake of 2012, The Arabist has it all in one place now. It's not quite as satisfying as I thought it might be based on the first part, but it's still an interesting opposition satire.
  

• Well, Egypt is the country best known for Denial/Da Nile. Somebody had to say 6 April was a success, so why not write that it succeeded before it ever began? (Except, um, that it didn't?)

• Folks in Vegas and Atlantic City: Will Avigdor Lieberman leave the Foreign Ministry because of his outrageous statements that make a farce of normal diplomatic commentary, or will they get him on corruption charges first? What if the US Secretary of State was being interrogated for five hours by the police on corruption charges? What would that do to diplomatic credibility? Bonus odds: anyone willing to bet he'll still be Foreign Minister at the end of the year? Even Michael Totten, generally a very conservative and pro-Israeli blogger on the Middle East, is ready to see him go.

• There's an uproar in Saudi Arabia over the fact that a film managed to get shown in the Kingdom despite the ban on cinemas. While, the last I heard, YouTube was blocked in the Kingdom, I suspect that there will be a lot of electronic leakage of video that makes the whole cinema ban rather moot.
  

There's more I'm working on for tomorrow. Meanwhile enjoy these links.

A Few Quick Takes

A few quick links in case you've missed them:

• Well, this certainly looks good. Avigdor Lieberman's party just took over the Ministry investigating him for improprieties. Good luck with that.
• The Arabist starts running a satirical imagining of a new Cairo earthquake in 2012, 20 years after the quake of '92. Part One is interesting, and it may be worth following for those of you with an Egyptian interest.
• A couple of new movies have Egypt's Copts complaining.
• Only in Lebanon can Hizbullah and its political allies be trying to decide on who their candidate for the Catholic Parliamentary seat in Jezzin might be