Bouteflika's 80th Birthday Passed, With No Sign of Bouteflika

On March 3, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika turned 80 years old. He made no public appearances. Recall that a few weeks ago, Bouteflika canceled a visit by Angela Merkel because he had bronchitis (or perhaps "bronchitis").

This time there was no mention of bronchitis to explain Bouteflika's nonappearance; appearances have been rare since his stroke in 2013 (despite election to another term after that), and when he is seen, he is wheelchair-bound.

The ruling FLN Party has announced that Bouteflika is fine. Any questions?

Bouteflika Cancels Merkel Meeting Due to "Bronchitis"

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has postponed a planned meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel due to "acute bronchitis." Bouteflika, who will turn 80 next week, has been confone to a wheelchair since a serious stroke in 2013, despite which he ran for and won a fourth term in 2014. He rarely appears in public, and then often with his much younger brother Said, 21 years his junior, who is seen as a power behind the throne and possible successor.

In recent years, the elder Bouteflika has frequently spent time in France for medical treatment, not always publicized. Since outmaneuvering and ousting his rivals in the security services, Algerians have tolerated his fragile health due to lack of a clear alternative. But there is a nervous uncertainty with every sign of worsening health, including the "acute  bronchitis."

To the Surprise of No One, Bouteflika Wins

Everyone including his enemies expected Abdelaziz Bouteflika to win a fourth term, and he has done so, with 81.5% of the vote. It is perhaps telling that this is down from the 90% margin claimed in he 2009 elections.

Bouteflika Votes from Wheelchair; Algeria Claiming 51.70% Turnout, Much Down from 2009

Algerian television and media made no effort to conceal the fact that 77-year-old President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, still affected by last years's stroke, voted from a wheelchair today, even showing him being wheeled in to the polling place, casting his ballot, and being wheeled out again. Previous press photos usually showed him seated and did not usually show him entering or leaving. (Remember too that in the US during WWII. the media never showed FDR in his wheelchair.) Narrative is in Arabic:


Throughout the day, international media reported generally low turnout, suggesting boycott efforts by many smaller parties were having an effect.The authorities announced after the last polls closed that turnout had reached 51.70%, which is markedly less than the claimed turnout in 2009 (74.54%, but widely suspected to be inflated) and down even from 2004 (58.1%). So the claimed turnout, whether inflated or not, acknowledges a dropoff in participation.

Algeria on the Eve: Some Thoughts

Algerians go to the polls tomorrow. There will be six candidates on the ballot, five men and a woman, of varying ideological orientations and ages. Then they will elect an ailing 77-year-old man who made no public campaign speeches.

But you knew that already.

Some analyses seem to see the Algerian situation as a reminder of the worst features of Arab authoritarian republics: the lack of a mechanism for succession and the unwillingness of autocrats to give up power, despite increasing disabilities. Those are no doubt factors. Others see it as a symptom of the fact that Algeria did not go through the ferment of Arab Spring. That's true, too, no doubt, to some extent.

But I also think that whether or not tomorrow's polls are freely held and fairly counted, Bouteflika would win anyway. One reason is that the Algerian establishment, from the military and security service generals Algerians call le pouvoir to the two big parties, the government bureaucracy, and the business and energy sectors, don't have anywhere else to go. Lately profound fissures have been visible within the establishment, but there is no agreed alternative to Bouteflika.

That is one side of the "stability at all costs" argument. The other side is the risk aversion of Algerians who fear  repetition of the violence of the 1990s. Even the half of all Algerians in their 20s and younger bear some scars of the troubles of the 1990s, when some 200,000 died. Older generations remember the eight year war of independence from 1954 to 1962, when perhaps a million died.I suspect this, and the sobering memory of the civil war in Libya next door, are one reason why there has been  so little turbulence in Algeria.

Bouteflika did not end the troubles single-handedly, but he presided over reconciliation, and the absence of any obvious successor means the alternative to another term might be renewed carnage.

Bouteflika will win, though perhaps not by the 90% he got in 2009 or the 85% in 2004. But we can hope that he, or at least le pouvoir, can find a solution to the succession question before Bouteflika is even less able to govern than now: a Vice President with real power perhaps, and a clear succession mechanism.

Bouteflika Appears Again; Meets Kerry

It's certainly unusual when a candidate for the Presidency of a major country is rarely seen during the campaign, even on television, but today we did get another glimpse of Algerian President Bouteflika, this time receiving John Kerry on his North African tour. The opposition in Algeria had been warning that a visit so close to the Presidential election on April 17. Algerian TV showed Bouteflika speaking to Kerry through an interpreter about intelligence cooperation in counter-terrorism, and even showed him standing to greet Kerry; most photos of him sense his stroke have shown him seated.

Speaking of Bouteflika, you should check out this look at his career by kal at The Moor Next Door: "A Pillar of the Regime and among the Younger Ministers of His Generation." The quote in the title is not a recent one, but refers to the Boumedienne era in the 1960s.

The tendency of Arab leaders to cling to power even when they are physically impaired (and Bouteflika is far from the exception here). Bouteflika is much younger than some incumbent Arab leaders, but his stroke has clearly impaired him.

Charles de Gaulle once famously remarked that "La vieillesse est un naufrage": "Old age is a shipwreck." He was referring to Marshal Pétain, and blaming the fall of France on the onetime hero's age (84 in 1940) for the surrender. Ironically, by the 1960s some of de Gaulle's critics, though he was only in his 70s, would quote the same lines about de Gaulle.

Ironically, though, there is probably no other candidate that the Algerian establishment could agree to unite behind.

Be Careful Where You Put That Campaign Poster

I can see two possible explanations for the positioning of this Bouteflika poster in Algeria. Obviously, an opposition supporter may have got hold of a Bouteflika poster and posted it here as a comment. Or perhaps an oblivious and/or illiterate supporter posted it without noticing what he was posting it on.

Algeria's Benflis Says He'll Stay in the Race

After Abdelaziz Bouteflika registered himself for a fourth term yesterday,  it's being reported that "dozens" of Presidential candidates have dropped out of the race, charging that Bouteflika's election is foreordained and criticizing his decision to run despite his age and health.

One who hasn't dropped out is former Prime Minister Ali Benflis, who announced his own candidacy in January and who says he's staying in the race.

For as good an explanation as I've seen on why the ailing Bouteflika will win anyway, see this article by Thomas Serres at Jadaliyya, translated from the French: "Bouteflika's Fourth Mandate: The Cartel's Gamble." The cartel he speaks of is essentially the military, political, and party establishments which, despite highly visible disagreements at times, manage to come together to preserve their own control of  the state apparatus.

Bouteflika Makes it Official

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika made his run for a fourth term official by signing electoral documents; he was shown arriving in a limo and also photographed seated at a table.

Bouteflika has not been shown standing or walking since his stroke last year.

Bouteflika Keeps Going, and Going, nd Going, and Will Run Again Says PM

Algeria's Prime Minister Sallal has announced that President Bouteflika will run again,for a fourth term in April despite his stroke last year.

Bouteflika in 1964

So it looks like he's really going to do it, one of the last figures from the independence era still clinging to power, along with some senior generals. (But they haven't had debilitating strokes.)

Not everyone in Algeria seems to agree (Hat Tip to Bill Lawrence for the link):

Retired General Urges Bouteflika to Retire

The ongoing tug of war between President Bouteflika and the DRS Military Intelligence establishment continues. Hocine Benhadid, a senior retired general, has now publicly called on Bouteflika not to run for a fourth term, saying he should retire "with dignity and let Algeria catch its breath." 

Benhadid also denounced FLN Secretary General Amar Saidani's recent call for the resignation of the DRS head as "treason." From the AFP report:

But for Benhadid, the country's stability cannot be guaranteed by someone who was "sick" and the "hostage of his entourage."

He singled out for criticism Bouteflika's brother Said, the "main actor" in the presidential clan, as well as army chief Ahmed Gaid Salah, one of the ailing leader's key allies.
"The chief of staff has no credibility, and no one is fond of him," Benhadid said.
He accused Bouteflika's entourage of "playing with Algeria's destiny" in order to "save its skin, because corruption has reached dangerous levels."

Benhadid, who retired in 1996 during Algeria's decade-long civil war, said Bouteflika's clan was guilty of "treason" for calling on Mohamed "Tewfik" Mediene, the veteran chief of the DRS military intelligence agency, to quit over alleged security failings.
Saidani, the leader of Bouteflika's National Liberation Front and a key supporter of the president standing for re-election, made the call last week in unprecedented public criticism of the secretive general who many consider the hidden force in Algerian politics.

Bouteflika himself, in the wake of the recent fatal military aircraft crash, denounced any who criticize the Army, perhaps seeking to distance himself from Saidani's remarks.

Algerian Power Struggle: "Toufik" said to Prefer Firing to Retirement

The confrontation between Algeria's President and its most powerful intelligence official (see yesterday's post) continues: this report claims sources close to General Mohamrd Mediene (known by his revolutionary nom de guerre as "Toufik"), would prefer to be fired to being retired or resigning. Even the picture with the story is debatable since, as I noted yesterday, there are no verified photos of the man, so if you don't even know what he looks like, how can you verify the source? What's clear is the escalation continues apace.

Bouteflika-"Toufik" Dispute Intensifies in Algeria

The increasingly open feud between Algerian President Bouteflika and the longtime head of the DRS Military Intelligence Service Gen. Mohamed Mediene (known as "Toufik") seems to be heating up and perhaps heading for  showdown. After FLN Party Secretary-General Amar Saadani recently said that Mediene had failed in multiple crises and should step down, the General's defenders  have been hitting back. One wing of the FLN Party now says it will no longer recognize Saadani, and parts of the press have been widely critical of Saadani's comments.

But nobody believes that Saadani was speaking for himself only; sine late last year, Bouteflika has sought to reduce he influence of the DRS, which is a key component of what Algerians refer to as le Pouvoir and Westerners often call "the Generals." "Toufik" is widely believed to oppose Boiuteflika's running for a fourth term, and the DRS has gone after some Bouteflika allies for alleged corruption; since last year there have been reports that Bouteflika has reshuffled the intelligence community to reduce the power of the DRS, which Mediene has headed since its founding in 1990 (and headed its predecessor before that)..

Appropriately for a figure who works in the shadows, even the exact looks of the General are disputed (link is in French) and many published photos are disputable at best.

Now there is growing speculation in the French media that Bouteflika may intend to retire not only "Toufik" but many other senior DRS officials (link in French); like the President the General is in his 70s and a law permits the President to retire officers over age 66 with 42 years of service; Mediene has been in the military since independence. Whether Bouteflika can succeed if he tries is not so clear; the fact that Mediene, or those he controls and influences, are fighting back does seem clear, though. Presumably the move would come soon, as Bouteflika must declare by early March if he is in fact running in the April Presidential elections. At least one report says the decision has already been made (link in French).

As More Endorse Bouteflika, New Attacks on "Toufik"

I'm over my virus and back to normal blogging, I hope. Algerian President Bouteflika still hasn't officially said if he's running agin in April, but he keeps piling up the endorsements; in additiion to the two major ruling parties, the FLN and the RND, he's also being endorsed by a raft of smaller allied parties.

Another sign that the Bouteflika forces are flexing their muscles: an apparent new round in the ongoing power struggle between the President's allies and the powerful military intelligence chief. You may recall that last year in a reshuffle of the security forces, Bouteflika reportedly reduced the power base of the powerful DRS military intelligence service and its chief, Lt. Gen. Mohamed Mediene, usually known by his nom de guerre Toufik, Now, FLN Secretary-General Amar Saadani is quoted as saying that Mediene should have resigned after a string of what he characterized as "intelligence failures." He also criticized the continuing influence of the DRS. Whether Bouteflika does run himself or is merely preparing the ground for a successor,t appears that the power struggle with Mediene may be coming to the fore again.

Algeria: Ali Benflis is Running, but is Bouteflika?

Former Algerian President Ali Benflis has announced his candidacy for the April 17 Presidential elections; the official electoral period started Friday. But the looming question remains whether President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is going to run for a fourth term despite his stroke last year, and so far that remains unclear. Benflis, who was Prime Minister in 2000-2003 and ran against Bouteflika in 2004,  may be hoping to present himself as an Establishment candidate if Bouteflika doesn't run, but Bouteflika likely has a preferred candidate of his own if he decides to step aside. It's less than three months until the elections and it's still unclear.

Bouteflika Returns, Signs Election Decree

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has returned from his Paris hospital checkup so it was just a checkup, I guess and has signed the electoral decree for the April Presidential elections, in which many expect him to seek a fourth term. The latest Paris hospital visit fueled speculation about his health.

Bouteflika Hospitalized Again in France: Will He Run?

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika isonce again at the Val-de-Grâce military hospital in France, reportedly for a routine checkup; but this year's Presidential election campaign process was supposed to be set in motion beginning January 17; if Bouteflika really is planning to announce his candidacy for a fourth term, he will presumably either have to return or consider announcing his candidacy from abroad.

Some have wondered all along if the clearly infirm Bouteflika's flirtation with a fourth term was in fact aimed at assuring he could maneuver his own designated successor into place, rather than hang on to power himself. Perhaps this will be clarified shortly..

The Answer to Monday's JFK Trivia Question: Bouteflika the Inevitable

On Monday, I posted a trivia question relating to the JFK funeral 50 years ago. Though a commenter got the solution within a couple of hours of the posting (first credit to the commenter known as Michal), I've waited till today to let others ponder if they choose to. Now I'll offer the answer, though it's been in the earlier comments thread since Monday night.

This was the original question, referring to the delegations from 90 countries that attended the funeral. First of all, I said I thought that only two were still in public office, and said:

One of these is HRH Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh and husband of Queen Elizabeth II, now 92. He is still in the same job and has held it continuously.

The other is an Arab, senior then and now but in a higher-ranking job today. He is not a member of a royal family. Who is he?

Well, first of all, I am obviously not well-informed about some of the smaller European countries' royalty. I then posted an update on two of these: King Harald V of Norway, who was Crown Prince at the time, and ex-Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands, who was then Princess Beatrix and reigned as Queen from 1980 until her abdication earlier this year. Whether an abdicated monarch is actually still "in public office" is arguable, but she's still a public figure at least. And if you count Beatrix, my own Managing Editor found me another comparable case: Grand Duke Jean of Luxembourg, who was the heir at the time, ruled 1964-2000, and abdicated in favor of his son, but is still alive. I obviously am not up on European royals. (I wondered if someone might try to argue that Caroline Kennedy, the new US Ambassador to Japan, attended the funeral and is "still in public office," though she wasn't at the time, but I clearly limited this to the foreign delegations.)

Bouteflika in 1964

Now to the actual answer: it is, of course, the Arab leader who keeps going and going and going: Algeria's Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who was Algeria's first Foreign Minister and attended the funeral when Algeria had only been independent for a year.

Still Going, and Going, and Going ...

And he's not merely still in public office, he's indicated that despite his stroke earlier this year, which led to a long recovery, he's planning to run for a fourth term.

Bouteflika and the Fourth Term: Does He Really Mean It?

The National Liberation Front (FLN) in Algeria has endorsed Abdelaziz Bouteflika for a fourth Presidential term in the elections next April  which is being reported as Bouteflika's deciding to run for the term, though he has not directly said so himself. While it's at least possible that this is a feint to allow him to complete his current round of power reshuffles aimed at breaking the entrenched power of the military and security services (known as "le pouvoir" in Algeria), he may well believe he can do it, despite his stroke earlier this year.

Regular readers (or if you search the Bouteflika tag) will recall that since Bouteflika's return from his French convalescence after the stroke, there has been much debate about a fourth term, but since September he as been actively reshuffling the Cabinet and the powerful DRS security service. Recently he proposed constitutional changes to entrench this. It was unclear if all this was aimed at securing a third term or clearing the obstacles for a chosen successor.

There is plenty of precedent for Arab leaders clinging to power long after age and failing health have weakened their abilities, but last April, a year before the elections, that the time had passed for his generation, the generation of the War of Independence. Has he changed his mind?

The elections are several months away and Bouteflika's rivals in the security services have been outflanked but not destroyed. I suspect this is not the end of the story. But the FLN move may precipitate new developments.

Former Algerian PM Ouyahia Coming to Washington?

Ouyahia

This and other reports indicate that in the wake of Algeria's recent Cabinet and other reshuffles, the next Algerian Ambassador to will be several-times Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia. He most recently had been PM 2008-2012.

What catches the attention here is that Ouyahia has been planning to run for President in next April's elections, especially if the ailing Abdelaziz Bouteflika does not run for a fourth term. So is his appointment  reward for a career of public service or an exile to get him out of Algiers? Perhaps a bit of both, but in keeping with other recent developments, it increasingly seems likely that Bouteflika plans to run (or at least control the choice of a successor).