The rich irony of a poor argument

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

Liberals are asking America: Are you going to believe us or your lying eyes? So ideologically convinced that recently enacted tax reform is wrong, they have politically blundered. By unnecessarily pitting themselves against hard evidence, they risk losing the argument, and their audience of working Americans as well.

Daily, tax reform becomes more popular. Starting as anecdotes — raises and bonuses from employers — its benefits are becoming a sizable trend. Its poll numbers are following suit.

Goaded by what they loathed, the left have made an unforced error. Abruptly changing course, they now argue directly against the growing evidence and indirectly against their target audience.

Previously, liberals were reinterpreting economic results. Under President Obama, the economy was neither bad nor good; it was “the new normal.” When 2017’s economy grew at 3 percent or better for two consecutive quarters, it was due not to President Trump, but his predecessor’s policies.

Still stinging in tax reform’s enactment, the left did what the left does: It allowed emotions to drive their actions. The liberal counterattack changed from accepting offending evidence to refuting the perception of those viewing it. This big strategic miscalculation could have serious repercussions.

The left’s most obvious mistake was taking on unnecessary risk. If tax reform turned out to not have tangible benefits, Americans would know and liberals’ opposition would be vindicated; the people would see and not need to hear “we told you so.” The reverse would be equally true. Yet, here is where liberals have mistakenly decided to contend; however, their argument has not been so much with conservatives as with the workers receiving the benefits.

From the beginning, some companies gave bonuses and raises attributed to tax reform. Liberals however decried these as paltry and insufficient. The left insisted on everyone seeing wealth as they see it — an absolute — rather than as the relative condition Americans see.

For most Americans, their goal was a relative improvement in their condition — especially following the preceding “new normal.” To have improvement derided as insufficient does not alienate them from tax reform. Rather it alienates them from tax reform’s liberal accusers who implicitly are denigrating average Americans’ perception and values.

Early bonuses are now being joined by reduced tax takes in current paychecks. Soon increased wages, as the economy continues strengthening, will join these. Finally, a “wealth effect” can be expected as well: As people feel increasingly secure in higher returns, this will prompt behavioral changes, further increasing their positive impression of tax reform and acting as a further economic accelerant.

In the early part of this four-stage onslaught the left have staked a losing position of denying this increasingly discernible evidence.

There is rich irony in their poor argument. Liberals presuming to speak for workers find themselves arguing against what they ostensibly sought. Now they even count it as an economic danger: Higher wages and consumer spending are cited as evidence of inflation. In short, what liberals once lauded as solutions, they have now transformed into problems.

Arguing against hard evidence is bad enough. Yet, liberals’ danger runs deeper still. At its core, their argument is also against what their audience values. After long-stagnated living standards, workers want bonuses. They want more after-tax income. They want higher wages. And they want a feeling of security in these.

The left’s arguments against all these are not simply refutable in their audience’s eyes; these are a denial of what they value. Their audience can rightfully, and doubly, come to the conclusion: Why should we listen to you? You disagree with what we see, and you do not value what we want.

Tax reform and its connection to President Trump have pushed liberals into far more dangerous territory than they realize. They have forced a clear ideological dividing line and are seeking to make it political too. Like someone seeking to dig themselves out of a hole, they appear to be intent on compounding their dilemma.

If as appears increasingly likely, tax reform is proven right in the short-term, liberals will have set the stage for tax cuts to be validated like never before — and for themselves to be proven wrong like never before.

This contrast will appear against stark economic and political backgrounds of the left’s own willful creation. Any increased prosperity will seem all the greater against the preceding period’s poor performance — a performance liberals justified by labeling the new normal. And it will appear against the left’s insistence that “up” was somehow “down” — or more accurately, that left was right, when it is clearly wrong.

• J.T. Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget.