1. April was a dead month for everything, but the PS4 with God of War. In September Switch saw Dragonball FighterZ, Super Mario Party, NES Online (if the NES Classic is anything to go by) and the Xenoblade 2 DLC. Not to mention the Fortnite bundle and the XBO saw PUBG's official release. Not saying those are necessarily system sellers (PUBG and SMP could be), but they're popular to have helped those 2 have a fairly decent/good month too
     
  2. slavesnyder

    slavesnyder
    Member

    okay, Welfare 's wall of text might seem completely dry and awfully long, but even if it feels like school you punks should read it.
    you won't get much better background analysis stuff anywhere else.
     
  3. gundamkyoukai

    gundamkyoukai
    Member

    Yep i wonder how much spidey bundles they did .
     
  4. P-Switch

    P-Switch
    Member

    That’s a really vague statement lol (I’m assuming he was more specific than that?)

    Of course Spider-Man is moving hardware...I don’t think anyone can argue otherwise. You can’t sell that many software units at launch without it affecting hardware sales in some way...

    The question is...affecting it by how much and compared to what.

    I’m just trying to figure out what kind of new consumer we are talking about then.

    If it isn’t more broad like in my argument...then we are talking about a consumer who hasn’t really been interested in ps4 games for the last 5 years, but who is specifically and mainly interested in Spider-Man IP stuff...who can now justify spending $300-$400 on a dedicated video game system who thought that was too expensive last month, last year, 3 years ago....and who can’t wait another 2-3 months for a possibly cheaper investment....

    Seems like a relatively small subset of consumers?

    While I certainly think there are such consumers and they will provide a noticeable effect on ps4 sales in the US this September...I’m only arguing it probably won’t be as much as people are theorizing.
     
  5. slavesnyder

    slavesnyder
    Member

    this is the question we are facing with ps4 and xbox one every single month now.
    who are these people who suddenly buy this console and why? what are their motivations? are they on drugs? it's mysterious, it's unexplainable, it's a miracle.
     
  6. kowalski

    kowalski
    Member

    [PS4] 440K
    [NSW] 300K
    [XB1] 210K
     
  7. P-Switch

    P-Switch
    Member

    I copy-pasted it into my text-to-speech app and applied an extremely sexy voice to it. I agree, it’s worth the effort.
     
  8. useyourloaf

    useyourloaf
    Member

    [PS4] 360K
    [NSW] 270K
    [XB1] 210K
     
  9. I don't think it is someone who was interested in the PS4 before as you describe. It is someone who never had PS4 on their radar or had minimal interest in it. Spider-Man aligns very well with that more casual market and I think it was the push for them.

    I suppose that is fair. I'm just going more off how God of War overperformed as a system seller. It did so well that it was part of the reason why Sony had to adjust their PS4 estimates for the year. It wouldn't really make sense for Spidey to only provide a minor bump in comparison.
     
  10. P-Switch

    P-Switch
    Member

    lol :P

    Yes, I can accept the usual ~300k or so crazies to suddenly spend $300-$400 on a 4-5 year old console in September....but 450k?? that’s a bridge too far.
     
  11. Fdkn

    Fdkn
    Member

    [PS4] 456K
    [NSW] 321K
    [XB1] 210K
     
  12. Saint-14

    Saint-14
    Member

    I think it was something like it’s having a strong effect, I just don’t agree with your argument of people bought a PS4 for GoW are also interested in Spider-Man so it will have a weaker effect, if you release such a big game and it is received greatly then it will move units regardless if you had another one a few months ago.
     
  13. P-Switch

    P-Switch
    Member

    I’m saying that Spider-Man won’t increase hardware sales by the same degree (or greater degree) as GoW increased April sales, despite Spider-Man sales being greater than GoW sales.

    And I think there are variable reasons for that. (Which I tried to extrapolate)

    And I do believe that a large portion of Spider-Man buyers also bought GoW, yes.
     
  14. MasterChumly

    MasterChumly
    Member

    [PS4] 375K
    [NSW] 280K
    [XB1] 215K
     
  15. Saint-14

    Saint-14
    Member

    How much did GoW affect hardware though? Do you look at last year’s result and count anything over that because of GoW?

    Also, what about people who bought a PS4 for Horizon, or UC4 or TLoU? Wouldn’t those also have been interested in GoW?

    Hell, what do you think the Switch will do this holiday with Smash and Pokémon releasing? Should we expect a big hardware bump or people who bought the Switch for Zelda and Mario are also interested in those two titles?
     
  16. Elandyll

    Elandyll
    Member

    It's worse than that.

    According to Welfare's numbers, the smallest increase ever between Aug and Sept for the PS4 has been 33%.
    Seeing a 50k / week average in August, x5 weeks, with a 33% increase, get us 333k.
    And that looks to be a pessimist prediction...
     
  17. MatPiscatella

    MatPiscatella
    The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst Verafied

    I'm personally expecting whatever forecast I have to end up conservative, as has basically been the case all year.

    VG hardware is the best performing category in all of NPD tracking this year (including everything from toys to prestige beauty to auto parts... we cover a ton of industries worth trillions).
     
  18. Welfare

    Welfare
    Member

    For the past couple of years, I've predicted PS4 to sell under 5M YTD. Maybe next year!
     
  19. P-Switch

    P-Switch
    Member

    Ah...so you expect the Switch to outsell all other console for the year by an even greater amount than you previously predicted! :D

    Last year, NPD totaled US sales revenue for videogaming (pc+console) at $14.59 billion. And it totaled toys sales at $20.7 billion (and npd only tracks 80% of the toy market, iirc)

    I’m assuming you expect NPD tracked toy sales to again perform better than videogames by the end of the holidays though?
     
  20. I see Mario party beating expectations. I think it’s impact has been underestimated and Pokémon’s may have been overestimated. I think people have been waiting for a good party game and the switch is perfect for that type of game.

    The switch from day 1 has been far stronger in the US than it has in the UK so I don’t think the 2 markets can be compared like that. 200K would be pretty awful IMO for the switch this month.

    I agree that the PS4 will be huge this month. Still hoping we see 500K but I think 400-450 is more realistic.