UK unemployment: Vacancies at record high as EU workers leave - as it happened

Back in the markets, the pound is surging amid reports that a Brexit withdrawal agreement has finally been agreed.

Sterling has surged almost two cents, to $1.3027 and on track for one of its biggest jumps this year.

It’s also hitting six-month highs against the euro, at €1.154, meaning one euro is worth 86.6p.

According to Westminster sources, cabinet ministers will be shown the text tonight, ahead of a full cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

Irish media group RTE is reporting that the plan includes a backstop agreement in which the whole UK remains in a customs arrangement, but with “deeper” provisions for Northern Ireland on the customs and regulatory side.

Our politics liveblog has all the details:

There was a particularly sharp drop in workers from eight EU countries: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia

This chart shows the full details:

Here’s Alasdair Ross of the Economist Intelligence Unit:

The Federation of Small Businesses fears that UK firms are facing a dearth of talent, now that EU nationals are in short supply.

FSB chairman Mike Cherry says more firms are reporting problems hiring the right staff:

“More than one in three small firms now say lack of access to the right skills is holding back growth – up from roughly a quarter at this time last year.

“One in five small employers rely on staff from the EU. With net migration from Europe falling, it’s increasingly a challenge for firms to recruit from the vital pool of EU talent based here in the UK. If we don’t see a pro-business withdrawal agreement signed before the month is out, this challenge will become even more pronounced and entrenched. The Brexit clock is ticking.

“It’s critical to remember that 95 per cent of small firms have never made use of the UK’s points-based immigration system. If they’re lumbered with complex paperwork to bring in EU staff post-Brexit that will cause a significant drag on the billions they contribute to the economy each year.

Today’s jobs report shows that British firms are creating much fewer new jobs than a year ago. So, with Brexit looming, bosses must fear that the struggle to find qualified workers will only get worse.

Here’s Reuter’s take:

Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.1% in the three months to September from a 43-year low of 4.0% the previous quarter, as slowing job creation failed to keep pace with rising job-seeker numbers. Britain’s economy added 23,000 jobs in the third quarter, a fraction of the 350,000 created over the previous 12 months.

Moreover, in the year to September there was an exodus of workers from the eight eastern European countries which joined the EU in 2004. Their numbers fell by 154,000 to 881,000, a record 15 percent drop that overwhelmed a small rise in workers from elsewhere in the EU. Britain has said EU citizens already in the country will be free to stay after Brexit but many fear bureaucratic hurdles or see improved prospects in their home countries.

Sectors such as hotels and restaurants, social care, food processing and construction rely especially heavily on EU staff, particularly for lower-paid jobs.

“We already have record numbers of vacancies, and the signs are that these skills shortages will further intensify over the next few months as EU workers no longer find the UK an attractive place to work,” said Tom Hadley, policy director at the Recruitment and Employment Confederation trade association.

Some Brexit supporters will probably feel that that the departure of EU workers should be welcomed, as it frees up jobs for other people.

But Professor Guglielmo Meardi of Warwick Business School argues that this is wrong -- it could actually cost jobs.

Here’s his take on the 132,000 fall in EU workers in the UK:

“The record fall in the number of EU workers is not just linked with wage growth, it is also linked with the rise in unemployment.

“In some occupations these EU workers are competitors for British workers and employers now have to pay more to recruit the remaining British or foreign workforce.

“However, in other sectors they are complementary to British workers and are needed to keep business alive. Without them businesses are forced to close, contributing to the rise in unemployment.

“Ending free movement now appears to be a totally pointless aim for the UK. The effect of announcing this policy was more than enough to bring down net immigration from the EU and, given earning and demographic trends, it is very unlikely to be reversed.”

Yesterday, we were reporting that the oil price has jumped, after Saudi Arabia appeared to pave the way for supply cuts in 2019.

The situation has reversed today, though; crude prices are falling sharply. Brent crude has shed 3.35% to $67.77 per barrel, and US crud has hit its lowest level of the year.

So what changed? Well, Donald Trump weighed in last night, arguing that Opec should take steps to get the oil price down, not throttling supply to get it up again.....

Here’s the chancellor, Philip Hammond’s take:

Those budget measures included a £3bn giveaway that mainly benefited higher earners. That’s been criticised by those who think the money could have been better directed, perhaps to fund schools or to cushion the impact of universal credit.

Labour, though, have resisted pressure to oppose the measures - side-stepping a Tory tax trap?...

Here’s our economics editor Larry Elliott on the UK jobs data:

The countdown to Brexit has seen the number of workers in Britain from the former communist countries of eastern Europe fall at its sharpest rate since modern records began more than two decades ago.

Official figures covering the summer and early autumn showed a 154,000 drop over the past year in the number of people employed from eight countries – including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic – that joined the EU in the early 2000s.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the year-on-year fall to 881,000 in the number of these workers in the period of July to September was the largest since 1997.

The annual 132,000 drop in the number of workers from the EU as a whole was also unprecedented. Employment from the rest of the world grew by 34,000.

The decline came as the latest ONS statistics showed tentative signs of easing in demand for labour but a marked increase in earnings growth.

While the number of people employed grew by 23,000 between June and September, the number of jobless people rose by 21,000 to 1.38 million. The unemployment rate edged up from 4% to 4.1%.

More here:

Geraint Johnes, professor of economics at Lancaster University Management School, has analysed today’s UK labour market report, and says it provides “mixed, but broadly favourable, news.”

Unemployment rose by some 21000 in the third quarter, and the rate now stands at 4.1%. But, with an increase in the population of over-16s, employment also rose over this period. Particularly positive is the news of a huge increase (some 104000 over the quarter) in the number of full-time employees, this being accompanied by a decline of 58000 in the number of part-time employees, and also a decline in the number of self-employed workers.

Underemployment, taking the form of people working fewer hours than they would like and working in less secure circumstances than they would like, has been a problem in recent years, but seems now to be in decline.

“The three-month measure of total pay increase rose to 3% in September, and the three-month measure of regular pay increase rose to 3.2%. The less reliable single-month figures indicate some easing off of this rate of increase in the most recent month, so the good news on pay still needs to be treated with a measure of caution. The sectors leading the growth in pay are construction and distribution.”

Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey has flagged up that Britain is making good progress in helping disabled people into the workplace.

She says the government’s “ Disability Confident” programme, which helps firms recruit and retain disabled people and people with health conditions, is paying off.

“As we celebrate the anniversary of Disability Confident, we can see seismic shifts in opportunities for disabled people, with almost a million more in work since 2013.

“That’s empowering almost a million more disabled people with new career opportunities, and creating a brighter future.

“Since 2010, employment has risen and unemployment has fallen in every single region of the UK. And with an average of 1,000 people moving into work each and every day, and three quarters of all new jobs in permanent, full time and high skilled roles, this shows our welfare reforms are working and delivering for people across the country.”