UPDATE FRIDAY, 12:36 PM: Warner Bros. sequel Fantastic Beasts and the Crimes of Grindelwald is eyeing around $27.5M, on its way to a $69M-$70M weekend. Note last night’s previews only grossed $7.3M and rep close to 27% of today’s ticket sales. Let’s hope the momentum builds. Lower range here on the film because Thursday previews of $7.3M came in 17% less than the Thursday of the first chapter two years ago.
On the Atom Tickets side, FB2 is outpacing pre-sales of Incredibles 2, Ant Man & The Wasp, and The Grinch.
The Grinch from Illumination/Universal is showing a $7.5M second Friday estimate and $31M second weekend, -54%, for a 10-day of $119.4M. 20th Century Fox/New Regency/GK Films’ Bohemian Rhapsody looking like it will top the weekend’s newcomers with an estimated third weekend of $16M, -49% after a third Friday of $4M with a running total by Sunday of $128.2M. Fox/New Regency/See-Saw’s Widows is eyeing an estimated $13.3M opening after $5.5M Friday, while Paramount’s Instant Family with an estimated $5M today is not far behind with a three-day of $12.5M
UPDATE FRIDAY 7:35AM: Fantastic Beasts and the Crimes of Grindelwald came in much higher last night with $9.1M. Note that’s not an exact like-for-like with the $8.75M Thursday night previews of Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them‘s from two years ago at this time. The figure includes Tuesday sneaks at 600 locations which minted around $1.8M we hear (hence last night was $7.3M). The David Yates-directed movie is off to a great start. Showtimes began at 5PM and played at roughly 3,300 locations. The J.K. Rowling-penned movie from Warner Bros. is expected to clear $70M in U.S./Canada and not be shackled by its lackluster 45% Rotten Tomatoes score.
20th Century Fox/New Regency/See-Saw’s Widows from Oscar winner Steve McQueen which grossed $600K at 2,200 locations. The pic is looking at a mid-teen to possible $20M opening. One industry comp is Breaking In which posted a Thursday night of $615K before making a $4.5M Friday and $17.6M opening, but overall is a hard one to comp and its a hybrid socio-political heist thriller ensemble. Production cost before P&A was $42M. Widows has already cleared $4M from its UK release last weekend.
Paramount reports that Instant Family starring Mark Wahlberg and Rose Byrne made $550K. The Rotten Tomatoes score for the movie currently is at 70% Fresh. Tracking has the pic clearing a mid-teen to $20M opening. The pic’s Thursday is in the vein of Goosebumps, another family movie, which made $600K and debuted to $23.6M. It’s also not far from the older-skewing The Intern which made $625K on its Thursday night and opened to $17.7M.
EXCLUSIVE: After grossing $10.1M in ten offshore markets off 9K screens, Warner Bros.’ Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is eyeing an estimated Thursday night of $7M-$7.5M at approximately 3,300 locations that started showtimes at 5PM, per Deadline sources. These figures do not come from Warner Bros.
As we always footnote, this estimate could go higher or lower, and west coast shows just started an hour and 15 minutes ago. Two years ago at this time, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, the first chapter in the Harry Potter spinoff from author J.K. Rowling, made $8.75M, which repped close to 30% of its first day’s $29.66M. The pic wound up opening to $74.4M in the U.S./Canada, but it was all about the global play with the movie, which debuted to $219.9M and finaled at $814M. This time around, FB2 is global day and date in 79 out of 80 markets. WB thinks it’s going to debut to $250M WW; others think it’s higher, possibly even $275M.
In Fandango pre-sales, FB2 was pacing in sync with FB1 with the ticket-seller survey showing that 93% of moviegoers are excited to see Jude Law as Dumbledore, 91% saw FB1 on the big screen while 78% are fans of the pic’s leading man Eddie Redmayne.
20th Century Fox/New Regency/See-Saw’s Widows is also holding previews tonight at 7PM, as well as Paramount’s Instant Family at the same time.
Yesterday Illumination/Universal’s The Grinch was the top grossing title among regular films in release with an estimated $2.5M, -3% from Wednesday and a first week gross of $88.4M; that’s more than the first week of Despicable Me ($85.6M). 20th Century Fox/New Regency/GK Films’ Bohemian Rhapsody earned $1.8M, -18% for a second week of $43M and a two week running total of $112.2M. Paramount/Bad Robot’s Overlord ended its first week with an estimated $13.8M while Sony/MGM/New Regency’s The Girl in the Spider’s Web earned $10.7M.
We’ll have more as it comes. Thanksgiving is just getting started.
