Canada Letter: Back at the Nafta Table and Tundra Meltdowns

There will be no holiday for negotiators from Canada, the United States and Mexico over the Labor Day weekend when they gather in Mexico City for Round 2 of the North American Free Trade Agreement talks. I asked my colleague Binyamin Appelbaum, The Times’s economic policy correspondent in Washington, about the American political influences shaping those negotiations and some issues that directly relate to Canada:

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The Fiat Chrysler Minivan assembly line in Windsor, Ontario, is a major exporter to the United States.CreditFabrizio Costantini/Getty Images

Powerful industry groups and members of Congress support Nafta. Will that political reality limit Mr. Trump’s ability to substantially change or even walk away from the agreement?

The White House is convinced that Mr. Trump has the authority to pull out of Nafta. Legal scholars generally agree, though there are enough skeptics to ensure the decision would end up in court.

But Mr. Trump already has backed away from one threat to abandon Nafta after strong opposition from business interests and members of his own party. Corporations and farmers that have benefited from Nafta want to preserve a quarter-century of investment in the development of a continental economy.

Changing Nafta would be even more difficult, because it would require congressional approval. Many Democrats share at least some of the president’s concerns about the current deal, but Mr. Trump’s political problems are likely to complicate any White House effort to build a bipartisan coalition.

Since Mr. Trump’s election, the government of Canada has said it welcomes Nafta negotiations and will use them to improve the agreement. Can Canada realistically get improvements or are the talks more about preserving the agreement?

The three nations successfully negotiated improvements to Nafta as part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Some of those improvements, like bringing electronic commerce under the deal’s framework, are relatively noncontroversial. Also, Canada and the United States have a shared interest in pushing Mexico to adopt stronger labor and environmental standards. And there are areas, like indigenous rights, where the United States may simply be willing to defer to Canada.

Bottom line: It’s easy to imagine upsides. The question is really about the downsides.

If, as Mr. Trump suggested in Phoenix this week, the talks fail and he takes the United States out of Nafta, what will the practical consequences of that be and how is it likely to affect Canada?

Nafta basically added Mexico to the 1989 free-trade deal between Canada and the United States. If the United States pulled out of Nafta, it would be subject to the earlier, substantially similar deal.

If Mr. Trump also ends the earlier deal, the two countries would still be subject to the rules of the World Trade Organization. The eventual result could be average import tariffs of about 3.5 percent.

Canada and Mexico could choose to maintain Nafta as a bilateral deal or negotiate a new one.

But the absence of an agreement between the United States and Mexico would cause problems for Canada. The work of making a given car, for example, is often spread across multiple factories in all three countries — so the Canadian jobs depend on trade between the United States and Mexico.

The rise of a continental economy has been painful for many workers in all three countries. There is no particular reason to think that going backward, in whole or in part, would be a less painful process.

For Canada, autos and car parts are a huge chunk of its exports to the United States. And one of the largest automotive employers in the country is Fiat Chrysler, the carmaker that, in recent years, has gone through different owners, a bankruptcy and a bailout that included money from Canada and Ontario.

The turmoil, and the fate of those jobs, continues. Bill Vlasic and Neal Boudette reported this week from Detroit that the company has been actively courting investors and potential partners in China for months. The bad news for Canada: Would-be partners are interested only in Fiat Chrysler’s line of Jeeps and its Ram pickup trucks, neither of which are Canadian-made.

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Carbon from Alaska’s fast melting permafrost is adding to global warming.CreditThe New York Times

Henry Fountain, a science writer at The Times, was recently in Alaska, at a place that is warming faster than many other places on the planet. That is creating a vicious cycle. As the permafrost that underlies large parts of the state melts, it releases carbon dioxide, further increasing global warming.

Alaska is not alone. “Some experts I’ve talked to say the thawing is even worse in some parts of Canada, especially the northwest,” Mr. Fountain told me.

Read: Alaska’s Permafrost Is Thawing

Watch: When Alaska’s Permafrost Isn’t Permanent

Max Fisher and Amanda Taub were in Canada earlier this year reporting for their column, The Interpreter. They also write a newsletter and in this week’s issue turned their attention to Canada. Rebel Media, the creation of the right-wing commentator Ezra Levant and a site often cast as Canada’s Breitbart News, seems to be in a state of collapse. Backlash against its coverage of the march by radical white nationalists in Charlottesville has caused an exodus of contributors and staff members. Mainstream politicians, notably Andrew Scheer, the Conservative Party leader, denounced it.

In their analysis, Mr. Fisher and Ms. Taub conclude that Rebel Media’s distress is related to Canada’s electoral and legislative systems, which “make it very difficult for a party to win power without heavy support from racial minorities.” It is a provocative and interesting read.

Read: Ethnic Outbidding for White People: A Story About Populism in Canada Versus the United States

Subscribe: The Interpreter newsletter

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Jerry Lewis wrote, produced and directed many of his own films, but critical acclaim eluded him at home.CreditJohn Springer Collection/Corbis, via Getty Images

In France, Jerry Lewis, who died this week at 91, was regarded as an intellectual and artist giant. In the United States, he found less critical approval for his films, particularly his work after splitting up with Dean Martin. Canada probably leans more toward the American perspective, although one notable exception is the Canadian comedian Jim Carrey, who wrote on Twitter: “That fool was no dummy. Jerry Lewis was an undeniable genius an unfathomable blessing, comedy’s absolute!”

The Times’s superb obituary of Mr. Lewis, by Dave Kehr, notes that Mr. Lewis and Mr. Martin were the first big mass media stars to come along after World War II, something that had largely been forgotten.

Like many obituaries, the one for Mr. Lewis’s was prepared well in advance. Mr. Kehr, in fact, left The Times four years ago. But, as this story from the Poynter Institute points out, Mr. Kehr did not leave film, which he covered for The Times, or Mr. Lewis behind. He is now a curator in the film section of the Museum of Modern Art in New York, a job that allowed him to finally meet the comedian.

Read: Jerry Lewis, a Jester Both Silly and Stormy, Dies at 91

Read: Why France Understood Jerry Lewis as America Never Did

Read: For Jerry Lewis, Few Statuettes but Lots of Influence

■ A judge from Hamilton, Ontario, now says that wearing a Donald J. Trump presidential campaign cap in court was meant as a joke. His position on the bench is being reviewed, Catherine Porter reported.

■ In Opinion, some illegal marijuana growers told Martin Patriquin they plan to go legitimate and prosper when Canada legalizes their product next year.

■ The editorial board of The Times urged Canada not to abandon its National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls, despite its rocky start.

A native of Windsor, Ontario, Ian Austen was educated in Toronto, lives in Ottawa and has reported about Canada for The New York Times for over a decade. Follow him on Twitter at @ianrausten.

Tell us what you think at nytcanada@nytimes.com. And, using the link above, please subscribe to the email newsletter version. Are you among those who believe that Labor Day is the true start of the new year in Canada? If so, please let me know.

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