With all the political focus in New York City trained on the 2017 mayoral race, there is another important battle being quietly waged, for perhaps the second-most-powerful job in the city.
Yet the only votes that matter in this contest are not from constituents; this race, for City Council speaker, will be determined by other Council members and the city’s Democratic county leaders, who are normally the deciding factor in efforts to wrangle the necessary votes.
The current speaker, Melissa Mark-Viverito, who is to deliver her State of the City address on Thursday, cannot run for re-election because of the term limits law; several other prominent Council members are also serving their last term.
Though the race will not be decided until January, the looming vacancy is already swathed in all the bare-knuckled, back-room intrigue of old-time New York: Promises are offered; deals are made. And a leading candidate suddenly emerges.
But this year’s contest offers additional intrigue in the form of Mayor Bill de Blasio; what role he will play is an open question.
In the last race, the mayor intervened immediately after his election, helping tip the balance in favor of Ms. Mark-Viverito over Councilman Dan Garodnick of Manhattan. Mr. de Blasio used his influence as the first Democratic mayor in two decades to support a coalition of liberal Council members, many of them also newly elected, that backed Ms. Mark-Viverito.
The vote, in January 2014, was expected to be so close, recalled Julissa Ferreras-Copeland, a Queens councilwoman, that on the morning it was held, the liberal coalition gathered at a downtown restaurant to walk with Ms. Mark-Viverito to City Hall — out of concern for last-minute defections. (In the end, with the outcome clear, Mr. Garodnick dropped out and Ms. Mark-Viverito captured all 51 votes.)
But that outcome represented a break from recent tradition, in which the county leaders of the Bronx and Queens have teamed up to back a speaker candidate from Manhattan. In exchange, Council members from those boroughs expect to get chairmanships on key committees such as finance and land use.
For the borough leaders, it is an alliance of convenience. The Bronx, for instance, would not back a Queens candidate — and vice versa — because that would concentrate too much power in the other borough. But a Manhattan candidate is seen as palatable to both, partly because the Manhattan Democratic machine is relatively weak.
All that bodes well for the hopes of Councilman Corey Johnson, who represents District 3, which stretches from Greenwich Village and Chelsea to part of the Upper West Side, and Councilman Mark D. Levine, whose District 7 extends from the Upper West Side to Washington Heights. They, along with Ms. Ferreras-Copeland, are thought to be the front-runners for speaker.
On a recent night, Mr. Levine and Mr. Johnson glad-handed their way through a banquet hall in Queens, gliding between tables topped with red-and-white balloons, and meeting near the Valentine-themed buffet near the shrimp.
“What’s everybody doing here tonight?” Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley of Queens joked, knowing full well why they and a bevy of other Council members had come to Antun’s, in Queens Village, for a Queens County Democratic fund-raiser.
Ms. Ferreras-Copeland was also making the rounds, as were others who are seen more as long shots: Jimmy Van Bramer and Donovan Richards Jr. of Queens and Ydanis Rodriguez, of Upper Manhattan. Potential hopefuls for the speakership from Brooklyn, like Robert E. Cornegy Jr. and Jumaane D. Williams, face a harder road that most likely does not run through Queens. (Neither was present at the banquet hall.)
“The race remains totally open,” Mr. Levine said. “Every one of us are friends and we work together and we are allies. It’s an unusual contest in that way.”
The speaker, as leader of the Council, derives much of his or her power from the key role the body plays in land and finance, including the ability to halt development projects, give final approval to the city’s budget and pass New York City laws. The speaker can also control whether or not a bill even gets a vote.
Ms. Ferreras-Copeland is thought to be the mayor’s favored candidate. But she would have to overcome a lack of support from the party committee in her own borough.
Democratic strategists and elected leaders described in interviews how lingering animosities may shape the race. Representative Joseph Crowley, the chairman of the Queens committee, and State Assembly Speaker Carl E. Heastie, the power behind the Bronx committee, are still irked over the outcome of the last Council speaker race, when their candidate, Mr. Garodnick, was defeated by the liberal coalition and the mayor’s maneuvering.
Back then, Ms. Ferreras-Copeland bucked the county leaders to back Ms. Mark-Viverito and was later made chairwoman of the Finance Committee. But her decision earned her Mr. Crowley’s displeasure.
Ms. Ferreras-Copeland played down the feud. “It’s like cousins,” she said. “Sometimes you fight and sometimes you want the favorite toy and you can’t have it. But you’re still family.”
Mr. Crowley, too, dismissed the notion of lingering hard feelings. “I think, from a county standpoint, that all boats rise when people stick together,” he said, “and I think that’s the lesson that’s been learned here.”
CreditJeenah Moon for The New York Times
The fallout of the 2014 speaker race also crosses borough lines.
Ms. Mark-Viverito, whose district, District 8, includes East Harlem and part of the Bronx, was elected with the support of the Brooklyn County Committee, headed by Frank Seddio. Mr. Crowley and Mr. Seddio have not spoken since, according to two people close to the men who asked not to be identified so as not to jeopardize relationships with them.
And the liberal coalition, known as the Progressive Caucus, may not be as strong as it was last time, not least because many of its members are competing with each other to be speaker.
All of these machinations have handicappers already contemplating the possibilities.
They note that Mr. de Blasio may have less sway over the outcome this time around. After his strong election victory in 2013, Mr. de Blasio was an incoming first-term mayor who appeared to be riding a wave of progressive energy. But after a rocky first term he is wounded by multiple investigations into his fund-raising and actions in government; and many Council members have grown impatient with what they see as his garbled management style.
What is more, Mr. de Blasio is heavily dependent on Mr. Heastie to push his agenda in Albany — which may induce him to either stay on the sidelines or back a Bronx-Queens candidate.
Only four people have held the speaker position since the Council was expanded to its current size in 1992. The first was Peter F. Vallone, a powerful Queens councilman who held the Council’s top job, then called majority leader, before charter changes in 1989 increased the Council’s powers. Term limits forced Mr. Vallone from office in 2002, and in the jockeying to replace him, the Bronx-Queens alliance emerged as kingmaker, electing a Manhattanite, A. Gifford Miller, as speaker. Four years later, Christine C. Quinn, of Manhattan, took his place, again with support from Bronx and Queens. She outmaneuvered Mr. de Blasio, then a councilman from Brooklyn, who ran against her for the speakership.
The selection of Ms. Mark-Viverito broke the pattern.
But term limits have also affected the job by forcing candidates to come out early. All Council members know they have only two terms to make a mark, so those interested in serving as speaker begin lining up backing midway through their first term. They also have to be re-elected in November, although serious challengers to incumbents rarely emerge.
In the end it is a numbers game. There are 51 Council members, meaning that at least 26 votes are needed to be elected speaker. The candidates are already counting.
“You probably don’t get to where you’re putting together the 26-plus until December,” Mr. Van Bramer said. “I think we’re starting to see it go into overdrive because time is of the essence.”