WTXS31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 40.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 40.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 12.5S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 12.8S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 13.0S 38.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 39.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRASTIC WEAKENING, WARMING, AND SHRINKING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF TC 24S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON TURNING IN THE EIR LOOP, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A 251557Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A SMALL BALL OF REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OVER LAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPID DISSOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE OVER LAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH MODERATE BUT WEAKENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL DOMINATE AND QUICKLY WEAKEN TC 24S. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DRIFT WHILE STILL OVER LAND. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME, AND MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN WALKING TOWARDS THE WEST, FAVORING THE REMNANTS OF TC 24S STAYING OVER LAND FOR LONGER. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24 AS REFLECTED IN THE LARGE SPREAD OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 24. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN