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344 days
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Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track how the 18 Democratic presidential candidates are doing and who is breaking out of the pack in the historic race for the 2020 nomination.

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Current State of the Race

Qualified for the December debate*
National polling averagePolling Average
Individual contributions†Individual contrib.†
Weekly news coverageWeekly media
27% $37.6m #1
22% $49.8m #2
18% $61.5m #5
8% $51.5m #4
4% $35.5m #6
3% $15.1m #12
3% $13.9m #7
2% $15.5m #10
2% $6.5m #11
< 1% $2.0m #8
< 1% $7.6m #9
Michael BennetBennet
< 1% $4.9m #13
John DelaneyDelaney
< 1% $2.4m #14
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
< 1% $6.1m #16
Steve BullockBullock
0% $4.4m #14
Joe SestakSestak
0% $0.4m #16
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Deval PatrickPatrick
#3
+ View all candidates
* Meets polling and donor thresholds set by the Democratic National Committee.
† Campaign finance data through Sept. 30.
Arrows show recent changes in value or rank.

Here’s the latest.

Nov. 22, 2019

The race for the Democratic nomination has never been more stable, at the national level, than it has been over the past few weeks. There are now candidates clearly slotted into first through fourth place, and none of them have shifted meaningfully in our polling average since mid-to-late October. The last significant change came when Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders both picked up a few points, apparently at the cost of Elizabeth Warren. That has left Joseph R. Biden Jr. in his longstanding role as a vulnerable, resilient and more or less unmoving front-runner.

Part of the reason for the relatively static nature of the Democratic race right now may be the news media’s overwhelming focus on the House’s impeachment inquiry into President Trump, which has consumed political oxygen that candidates might have otherwise used to challenge one another and shake up the race.

There has been more movement recently in the early primary and caucus states, with Mr. Buttigieg surging in Iowa and overtaking Ms. Warren in the most authoritative poll there. So far, he has risen only by more incremental margins outside Iowa, and his path to the nomination appears to rely on a standout performance there that transforms the national dynamics of the race. But even Mr. Buttigieg’s relatively localized strength is already complicating the race.

There are reasons to believe the race could undergo more pronounced changes soon. Two underdog candidates, Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker, had strong debate performances on Nov. 20 in Atlanta, and they will be looking to translate that into momentum in Iowa. And Michael R. Bloomberg and Deval Patrick could both shake up the campaign.

At the moment, however, the primary continues to look like a three-way race at the national level, with Mr. Biden ahead, Ms. Warren not far behind him and Mr. Sanders close behind her, and with Mr. Buttigieg as a wild card in the early states.

One thing to note: Our polling chart does not include up and down arrows this week because of an adjustment in the data set. We are no longer including the Reuters/Ipsos poll, because the Democratic National Committee removed it from the list of polls that can qualify candidates to participate in debates. The removal of that poll has had a limited effect on the line graph, mostly smoothing the lines and emphasizing the stability of the race but not yielding an improvement for any one candidate.

— Alexander Burns

Data through Nov. 21

Who Is Leading the Polls?

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. That’s even truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest National Polls

Pollster Date Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Harris
MonmouthMonmouth Oct. 30 - Nov. 3 23 23 20 9 5
ABC News/Washington PostABC News/
Washington Post
Oct. 27-30 28 23 17 9 2
Fox NewsFox News Oct. 27-30 31 21 19 7 3
NBC News/Wall Street JournalNBC News/
Wall Street Journal
Oct. 27-30 27 23 19 6 4
USA Today/SuffolkUSA Today/
Suffolk
Oct. 23-26 26 17 13 10 3
The New York Times polling averages use pollsters approved by the D.N.C. for debate inclusion requirements. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages. Data is for registered voters or likely voters, depending on the poll. See the full list of D.N.C.-approved pollsters here.

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On Nov. 22 in previous election cycles ...

Primary Polling leader Eventual nominee?
2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2016 Republicans Donald J. Trump
2012 Republicans Newt Gingrich
2008 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2008 Republicans Rudy Giuliani
Source: RealClearPolitics

We are keeping an eye on state-level polling, too, especially in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Latest Polls in Early Voting States

S.C. Nov. 13-17 Iowa Nov. 8-13 N.H. Nov. 6-13 Nev. Nov. 6-13
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
33 15 22 33
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
13 16 31 21
Bernie SandersSanders
11 15 20 23
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
6 25 16 9
Kamala HarrisHarris
3 3 3 4
Andrew YangYang
4 3 1 1
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
1 6 3 2
Cory BookerBooker
2 3 1 2
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
1 3 0 0
Tom SteyerSteyer
5 3 1 2
Julián CastroCastro
0 0 0 1
Michael BennetBennet
0 1 0 0
John DelaneyDelaney
0 0 0 0
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
1 0 0 0
Steve BullockBullock
0 0 0 0
Joe SestakSestak
0 0 0 0
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
2
Deval PatrickPatrick
0
+ View all candidates
Sources: Quinnipiac (South Carolina poll), Des Moines Register/CNN (Iowa poll), CBS News/YouGov (New Hampshire, Nevada polls)
Data through Sept. 30

Who Is Leading the Money Race?

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates’ ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. We only get an occasional glimpse at these numbers, however, since candidates file fund-raising reports on a quarterly basis. See full fundraising numbers here »

Contributions,
July-Sept.
Contributions,
July-Sept.
Contributions,
April-June
Contributions,
April-June
Bernie SandersSanders
$25.2m
$18.0m
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
$24.6m
$19.2m
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
$19.1m
$24.9m
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
$15.7m
$22.0m
Kamala HarrisHarris
$11.7m
$11.8m
Andrew YangYang
$9.9m
$2.8m
Cory BookerBooker
$6.0m
$4.5m
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
$4.8m
$3.9m
Julián CastroCastro
$3.5m
$2.8m
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
$3.1m
$1.5m
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
$3.0m
$1.6m
Steve BullockBullock
$2.3m
$2.1m
Michael BennetBennet
$2.1m
$2.8m
Tom SteyerSteyer
$2.0m
John DelaneyDelaney
$0.5m
$0.3m
Joe SestakSestak
$0.4m
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Deval PatrickPatrick
+ View all candidates
Source: Federal Election Commission ·Candidates in the chart without donation numbers joined the race after the financial disclosure reporting deadline. Current numbers are as of Sept. 30. The next filing deadline is Jan. 31.
Data through Nov. 20

Who Is Getting News Coverage?

A candidate’s ability to make news and draw the attention of voters — and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.

Being talked about isn’t always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.

Total Mentions in 2019

CNN
Fox News
MSNBC
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
62,829
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
24,198
Bernie SandersSanders
23,286
Kamala HarrisHarris
15,899
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
7,876
Cory BookerBooker
7,129
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
3,473
Julián CastroCastro
2,595
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
1,932
Tom SteyerSteyer
1,848
Andrew YangYang
1,435
Steve BullockBullock
857
John DelaneyDelaney
847
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
610
Michael BennetBennet
552
Deval PatrickPatrick
391
Joe SestakSestak
7
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
+ View all candidates
Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT Project. ·Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidate’s full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found here.

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Key Dates

2019
Dec. 19 Sixth primary debate
2020
Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses
July 13-16 Democratic National Convention
Nov. 3 Election Day