2020 elections

'Don't tell me it doesn’t matter': Impeachment trial hurts presidential campaigns

Democratic senators seeking the White House will be stuck in Washington rather than Iowa at a critical moment.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren

There are many ways Elizabeth Warren can continue her presidential campaign from Washington during President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial: Surrogates in Iowa, national TV appearances and on social media.

But while the Massachusetts senator has said for months that “some things are more important than politics” — like impeachment — she now admits that with three weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, there’s simply no substitute for being there.

“Of course it matters,” Warren said in an interview this week. “We just did a 3½-hour selfie line. Don’t tell me it doesn’t matter to do face to face.”

With the impeachment trial set to start next week, the standoff between the House and Senate on Trump’s impeachment trial has created a massive headache for the five senators running for president. Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Michael Bennet and Cory Booker can’t skip a historic impeachment trial for the campaign trail, and so they look set to be stuck in Washington during the climax of the race for Iowa and New Hampshire.

And though there are some upsides to being in the middle of one of the biggest political stories in a generation, Senate Democrats are beginning to concede that they will be at a disadvantage — while supporters of Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden see an opportunity for their candidates to have a stage all to themselves.

“There are lots of ways to reach out and talk to people,” Warren added. “But the best and most important one is the face to face, handshake, a hug and being able to hold up the children so they can take pictures with you, to ask a question to do a pinkie promise. And all of that is lost is if we can’t be there in person.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said “my job is to be here and that’s where I will be,” but the uncertainty of the timing made it difficult to plan. Booker, a clear underdog candidate, told The Associated Press that even a two-week trial would mean “literally dozens of events we won’t be able to do.”

The timing of the trial is the product of an unexpected standoff between the two chambers of Congress. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) initially declined to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate, arguing that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) should lay out the rules to a fair trial with the guarantee of considering witness testimony and new evidence before moving forward. McConnell rejected those entreaties and has secured the votes to pass a rules package endorsed only by Republicans.

But now Pelosi is moving and the Senate and its presidential aspirants will be thrust into an impeachment trial as soon as next week. A presidential debate is scheduled for Tuesday and the first day of the trial is likely to hit soon after, stranding senators in Washington for two weeks or more.

“If this were my campaign, I’d want to be right there with the voters to the last minute. So that part hurts,” said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois, which borders Iowa. The veteran Democrat is neutral in the primary.

During the trial, the Senate is expected to be in for six days a week rather than its usual four; logistics alone will throw the early-state advantage to Biden, Buttigieg, Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer.

However, the trial's focus on Biden could be awkward. Trump was impeached in December over charges he abused his power by pushing Ukraine to investigate the former vice president and his son. Trump and some GOP allies are still demanding to subpoena both Joe and Hunter Biden, who served on the board of a Ukrainian energy company.

But Biden and the rest of the field outside the Senate can at a minimum stay in Iowa and New Hampshire without worrying about an uncertain Senate schedule.

“It depends, in part, on how well Joe performs while all of my colleagues are stuck here for the impeachment trial. If he tears it up and knocks the ball out of the park all over the early primary states, then it’s a plus,” said Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), a Biden supporter. “There’s going to be more attention on him. … And it should be an overall positive.”

“It definitely helps [Buttigieg] because there’s nothing like being there. I mean Joe got a bounce in Iowa because he came and did a six-day tour, his Malarkey tour,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), who backs the former South Bend mayor. Iowans "really take it seriously. So because of that, the fact that three of the important candidates aren’t there really makes a difference.”

Still, the closely bunched top tier of the nomination fight could make the early states less significant. And the trial could conclude before the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses, giving the senators a chance to catch up late ground in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But in those two small states, retail campaigning is key. Iowa’s senators visit all 99 counties each year while New Hampshire has just 1.3 million residents to meet — fewer than the other early states.

“It’s an advantage for candidates like Biden and Buttigieg to continue their campaigning and their retail politics on an uninterrupted basis,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster. “While there is a significant opportunity cost for the Democratic senators, voters understand that they are doing their duty and not blowing them off.”

Given the still-lingering uncertainty about when exactly the Senate will start the trial, candidates don’t yet have firm plans about how to handle the coming days. But all five senators running for president were in Washington this week for critical briefings on Iran and intel on the impeachment trial.

And being in the middle of an impeachment trial of a president loathed by the Democratic base also has its benefits.

“They will be free to be on TV every moment that the trial doesn’t command their presence. And they will be sought after talking heads,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “I don’t really buy the fact that it really affects them. It frankly puts them in the center of the national conversation.”

Despite its consequential nature, impeachment has rarely been the focal point of the 2020 primary. Though Warren has been talking about impeaching Trump since last spring, it’s never been the center of her campaign and has rarely provoked fireworks between the Democratic candidates.

Polls show other issues are more important to voters, at least ahead of the trial. And Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), who recently suspended her campaign, said that while impeachment is not the top subject on voters’ minds, it still matters.

“The biggest issues are health care, the economy, basic issues, kitchen-table issues,” Harris said. “But the underlying issues on the impeachment are issues that people do care deeply about.”

John Bresnahan, Marianne LeVine and Heather Caygle contributed to this report.