ABPW10 PGTW 010600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND

/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZAPR2020//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 9.7S 143.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 85

NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED

FLARING CONVECTION AT THE PERIPHERY. A 010436Z GMI 89GHZ PARTIAL

MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND

SOUTH OF THE LLC. A 302357Z METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLC

WITH SMALL SWATHS 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

98P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD

OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30

CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 8.7S 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 153.8E, APPROXIMATELY 400

NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED, FLARING CONVECTION. A

010318Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS GENERALLY

DISORGANIZED SCATTERED FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL

FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. A 312333Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS

PREDOMINANTLY SHOWS TROUGHING WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE

WESTERN SIDE. 90P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD

DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM

(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH

CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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