Summer Olympics in 2021? ‘Exceedingly Difficult’ Without a Coronavirus Vaccine

A Japanese medical authority has raised doubt about staging the Games, even a year later than originally planned, unless an effective vaccine has been developed.

Credit...Issei Kato/Reuters

TOKYO — Postponing the 2020 Summer Olympics until next year has not erased doubts about safely hosting the world’s largest sporting event amid a global pandemic, but has merely delayed the timeline on answering them.

Japan and the International Olympic Committee announced the one-year postponement last month after enduring weeks of criticism and heavy resistance from athletes, sports federations, health experts and others.

But as the organizers of the Tokyo Games begin to confront the enormous economic, political and logistical challenges created by the unprecedented delay, it has become increasingly clear that the anxieties that forced the postponement in the first place could very well remain unsettled for many months to come.

In a hint of the hand-wringing ahead, the head of a prominent Japanese physicians’ group on Tuesday expressed doubt about whether Tokyo could hold the Olympics next year without a coronavirus vaccine.

“My personal opinion is that if an effective vaccine has not been developed, it will be difficult to hold the Olympic Games,” said Dr. Yoshitake Yokokura, the president of the Japan Medical Association. “I would not say they should not be held, but I would say that it would be exceedingly difficult.”

Research teams around the world are rushing to develop a vaccine, but most experts have said it could take 12 to 18 months to develop one, let alone distribute it globally.

Lingering uncertainty about the virus and the general safety of a huge, multinational gathering in Tokyo could mean that Olympic officials, even a year from now, would be forced to make modifications to the established elaborate model for the Games.

The officials could, among other things, decide to hold the 16-day event without a live audience and turn the Games into a strictly made-for-television spectacle. That option was already discussed in depth, and ultimately scrapped, as a possible way to avoid postponement this year.

Though such a move might appease global broadcasters, the organizers could miss out on hundreds of millions of dollars in ticket sales and have to offer refunds for those already purchased.

The cost of the Games is expected to balloon by billions of dollars because of the delay.

Indeed, any continuing safety issues will compound the logistical headache already developing for officials in Japan. Questions about securing competition venues, hotels for visitors and housing for 15,000 Olympic and Paralympic athletes from more than 200 countries, for example, remain mostly unanswered.

An I.O.C. spokesman said on Tuesday that Olympic organizers would adhere to the World Health Organization’s ongoing guidance about mass gatherings during the pandemic and move forward with the aim of holding the Games “only in a safe environment for all people involved.”

The I.O.C. and Japan have given themselves one shot to get it right. On Tuesday, Yoshiro Mori, the president of the Tokyo organizing committee, was quoted in a Japanese newspaper as saying the Games would be “scrapped” if they could not take place in the summer of 2021.

“The Olympics would be much more valuable than any Olympics in the past if we could go ahead with it after winning this battle,” Mr. Mori told the Nikkan Sports daily. “We have to believe this. Otherwise, our hard work and efforts will not be rewarded.”

As of Monday, Japan’s coronavirus death toll stood at 376, and its national caseload was over 13,000. Dr. Yokokura told reporters on Tuesday that he thought it was still too early to consider lifting the country’s state of emergency.

While the world waits for the pandemic to run its course, small moments of friction have hinted at possible complications between the I.O.C. and Japan in the year to come.

Earlier this month, some Japanese officials were irked about a Q. and A. published on the I.O.C. website that included a passage about the financial impact of postponing the Games.

The passage said Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan, had agreed that his country would “continue to cover the costs it would have done under the terms of the existing agreement for 2020, and the I.O.C. will continue to be responsible for its share of the costs.”

The line, however innocuous, touched a nerve in Japan, and last week a spokesman for the Tokyo organizing committee publicly objected to the fact that Mr. Abe had been singled out by name on the website.

“Tokyo 2020 signaled us that they felt it would not be appropriate to mention the prime minister in such I.O.C. communication,” an I.O.C. spokesman said, “and we, of course, respected this wish.”

Within hours, Mr. Abe’s name was removed from the I.O.C.’s article.

Tariq Panja contributed reporting from London.

  • Frequently Asked Questions and Advice

    Updated April 11, 2020

    • What should I do if I feel sick?

      If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.

    • When will this end?

      This is a difficult question, because a lot depends on how well the virus is contained. A better question might be: “How will we know when to reopen the country?” In an American Enterprise Institute report, Scott Gottlieb, Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson staked out four goal posts for recovery: Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care; the state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms; the state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts; and there must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

    • Should I wear a mask?

      The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.

    • How does coronavirus spread?

      It seems to spread very easily from person to person, especially in homes, hospitals and other confined spaces. The pathogen can be carried on tiny respiratory droplets that fall as they are coughed or sneezed out. It may also be transmitted when we touch a contaminated surface and then touch our face.

    • Is there a vaccine yet?

      No. Clinical trials are underway in the United States, China and Europe. But American officials and pharmaceutical executives have said that a vaccine remains at least 12 to 18 months away.

    • What makes this outbreak so different?

      Unlike the flu, there is no known treatment or vaccine, and little is known about this particular virus so far. It seems to be more lethal than the flu, but the numbers are still uncertain. And it hits the elderly and those with underlying conditions — not just those with respiratory diseases — particularly hard.

    • What if somebody in my family gets sick?

      If the family member doesn’t need hospitalization and can be cared for at home, you should help him or her with basic needs and monitor the symptoms, while also keeping as much distance as possible, according to guidelines issued by the C.D.C. If there’s space, the sick family member should stay in a separate room and use a separate bathroom. If masks are available, both the sick person and the caregiver should wear them when the caregiver enters the room. Make sure not to share any dishes or other household items and to regularly clean surfaces like counters, doorknobs, toilets and tables. Don’t forget to wash your hands frequently.

    • Should I stock up on groceries?

      Plan two weeks of meals if possible. But people should not hoard food or supplies. Despite the empty shelves, the supply chain remains strong. And remember to wipe the handle of the grocery cart with a disinfecting wipe and wash your hands as soon as you get home.

    • Should I pull my money from the markets?

      That’s not a good idea. Even if you’re retired, having a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds so that your money keeps up with inflation, or even grows, makes sense. But retirees may want to think about having enough cash set aside for a year’s worth of living expenses and big payments needed over the next five years.