If you spend any time on Facebook or Twitter, you may have seen one of the Lincoln Project’s viral ads. Or the president’s responses to them.
The day after President Donald Trump returned to the campaign trail in Oklahoma last month after a coronavirus-induced hiatus, the group founded by anti-Trump Republican operatives released a video about the Tulsa rally called “Shrinking.”
“You’ve probably heard this before but it was smaller than we expected,” a female narrator says as the president holds up his hands. “It sure wasn’t as big as you promised.”
In an earlier ad about Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale, the group suggests he has gotten rich at the president’s expense. A female narrator details Parscale’s yacht, Ferrari, and Florida estates while illustrating his alleged high-flying life with images of women partying on a boat in skimpy bikinis and smacking their own buttocks.
The Lincoln Project’s ads have gotten Trump’s attention. He has blasted the group in late-night Twitter tirades as a “disgrace” and its founders as “losers.” The media can’t get enough of the group, describing it as a potentially disruptive force that can expertly troll the president with “potent ads” that a New York Times op-ed writer recently described as “miniature operas of contempt.” Donors have also taken notice, helping the group raise $16.8 million in the last quarter.
Lincoln Project cofounder Rick Wilson reiterated during the group’s first virtual town hall last week that their ads are not just about trolling the president. The group wants to “litigate the case against Donald Trump.” They intend to spend 85 cents of every dollar on voter contact, he said. The group’s latest fundraising filing due Wednesday is being closely watched after earlier questions about how the project is using its money.
As the group expands and its leaders make the rounds on cable news programs, no one is talking about how The Lincoln Project plans to target the group of voters most open to changing their mind about the president: women.
Polls show that women, specifically suburban and white women without college degrees, are souring on the president at higher rates than their male counterparts, making them a must-reach demographic. As many as half of white women backed Trump in 2016.
The Lincoln Project declined repeated requests to discuss whether and how they planned to reach out to women voters, though winning them over would be essential to its stated goal of making Trump a one-term president.
A potential pitfall in that project is the group’s style, which emphasizes masculine leadership attributes while strategically deploying female narration to mock Trump’s stamina, sexual prowess, and mental acuity. These tactics are unlikely to appeal to these women and could even turn some off, according to a dozen political strategists and messaging experts familiar with their ads and the female electorate.
“These are not ads that are targeted at the lower-hanging fruit,” says Anat Shenker-Osorio, a language researcher and progressive communications consultant, referring to winnable women voters.
“If you want women on board, you’re going to have to produce content that speaks to women,” she said.