Weekly death statistics
Data extracted on 15 October 2020.
Planned article update: December 2020.
Preliminary data from 31 European countries show that there were almost 230 000 more deaths from March to June 2020 than the average number of deaths during the same period in 2016 to 2019.
This article provides information regarding the evolution of the number of deaths by week in the countries of the European Union (whenever available), as well as EFTA. This is particularly useful for assessing the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the European population (see Data sources section on country coverage).The number of deaths rose rapidly in some Member States at the beginning of March 2020. In some parts of Europe, the difference compared with previous years was exceptionally high. On the other hand, some areas were less severely affected. In total, among the European countries for which data are available, there were almost 230 000 more deaths during weeks 10 to 26 (March - June) in 2020 than the average number of deaths during the same period over the four years 2016 to 2019. The peak of additional deaths compared with the weekly average in 2016-2019 was recorded in week 14 (30 March – 5 April) 2020. Countries and regions were hit differently, as were age groups, with those aged 70 and over being particularly affected by deaths due to COVID-19.
Dramatic rise in deaths in early spring
The comparison of the number of deaths in 2020 with mortality data from previous years (average over 2016 to 2019) shows, at aggregate level, the exceptionality of the first months of 2020 across the 31 European countries for which data are available. While important disparities existed between countries and regions, overall the first weeks of the year have lower values than those observed in the previous years. However, while in other years mortality started decreasing around this time of the year, in 2020 the number of deaths starts to rise abruptly at the beginning of March, corresponding to week 10 in Figure 1. By week 11 (9-15 March 2020), the values of 2020 surpass those recorded on average in the previous years. This gap is at its height in week 14 (30 March to 5 April).
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
In fact, each year displays its specific mortality pattern, which is also different from country to country and region to region. Aggregated 2018 data show, for example, the toll taken by the flu epidemics in late February and early March of that year. At the same time, previous years showed a striking similarity in the decreasing trend of weekly deaths starting with March and up to the end of May (week 22), as shown in Figure 2.
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Number of deaths higher than in previous years
The cumulated values in the 31 European countries included in the analysis offer another way of comparing 2020 with the previous years. The cumulated deaths recorded after week 9 are, by week 14, higher than those recorded in any of the previous four years, as presented in Figure 3.
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
When comparing 2020 with the average of the past four years, by week 24 the difference overpasses 227 000 deaths. Between weeks 11 and 24 (the weeks with positive difference between 2020 and the 2016-2019 average - as shown in Figure 4), there are 237 000 additional deaths for the 31 countries analysed.
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Wide disparities between countries
The 31 European countries analysed were not affected in the same manner by the rise in the number of deaths. Table 1 compares the deaths in 2020 with the average of the previous four years, by week.
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Already at the beginning of March (week 10), Italy has significantly more deaths than in the previous years. It is also the first country to reach a peak, in week 13. The steepest increase in the number of deaths is in Spain, which by week 14 sees the number of weekly deaths in 2020 represent more than double the deaths recorded in the same week of the previous years. With week 14, France and Switzerland also mark the moment from where deaths began to drop. For other countries, like Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden and Portugal, the peak of the deaths increase in 2020 is reached in week 15 (6-12 April). For Belgium, the highest point represented more than double the deaths in 2016-2019. There are countries where the rise and fall in mortality do not follow a bell shape: Sweden has an average increase of 35 % in the number of deaths over the period end of March - end of May (weeks 14 to week 21) which is relatively close to the highest value (almost 50 % increase in week 15). For Portugal, week 22 displays values close to those of the peaks in weeks 14-15 (all weeks being 21 % higher in 2020 than in the past four years). In the remaining EU countries the pattern is less regular and the differences with the previous years are less pronounced. In some countries, such as Bulgaria or Slovakia, the contribution to the European rise is negative (fewer deaths than in the previous years over the weeks covered). Regarding the United Kingdom, there was also a pronounced increase in the number of deaths compared with the average of the previous years, recording more than double its usual number of deaths in weeks 16 and 17, with a peak of a 114 % increase in week 16, and a more gradual return to the average number of deaths than other countries, only by weeks 24-25. In the EFTA countries, Switzerland registered a significant number of addition deaths, peaking in week 14 with a 44 % increase .
In the graph below you may select the country you would like to analyse.
- Tool 1: Number of deaths per week
Source: Eurostat
- Tool 1: Number of deaths per week
Figure 5 shows how several countries contributed to the difference in the number of deaths compared with the same week in previous years. To a large extent, the impact of these countries in the total additional number of deaths observed depends on the size of the country's population. While in week 11 this difference is mainly explained by deaths occurring in Italy, over weeks 12-13, 85 % of these deaths occurred either in Spain, Italy or France. With Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany as well as other countries gradually recording more deaths, by week 18 (when the 2020 values came much closer to the 2016-2019 average), half of the deaths of this difference are reported by Spain, Italy or France. From week 16 onwards the increases in the United Kingdom explain most of the additional deaths in Europe. In Figure 5, the legend shows countries by order of their contribution to the increase in mortality in week 14 of 2020.
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Deaths can also be analysed in a standardised way, in relation to the population of each country on 1 January. The average of these values for a longer time period (here, 2016-2019) also gives an indication on the combination among the population structure and mortality rates in each country. Against this benchmark, the period of three months corresponding to weeks 10 to 22 in 2020 displays notable shifts upwards in several countries: Spain, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden and France. Portugal, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Austria and Finland show less marked increases, but nevertheless higher than 5 % change compared with 2016-2019.
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts) and (demo_gind)
Worst hit regions
Moreover, considerable differences could be noticed not only across countries but also between the regions of a country. In Map 1, the deaths in 2020 over weeks 10 to 19 are expressed in comparison with the same weeks in 2016-2019. Regional data (available at up to NUTS 3 level depending on the countries) show how in some areas in Europe, the increases in the number of deaths were especially significant: such as the north of Italy, the central zone of Spain including Madrid, the east of France and the region of Paris, several of the Belgian and Dutch regions.
The NUTS 3 regions worst hit by mortality over the period are mainly in Italy and Spain. From 2 March to 10 May (weeks 10-19), Bergamo, Cremona, Segovia, Lodi and Brescia had more than three times more deaths than they recorded in the same period over the previous four years. As many as 21 of the 25 most affected regions in the EU are in Italy or Spain, the other regions being Haut-Rhin, Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine in France, and Noordoost-Noord-Brabant in the Netherlands.
Different timings in mortality increase
In order to introduce the time perspective, the increase in the number of deaths in terms of differences compared with the previous years is presented in the GIF below, for weeks 9 to 26 of 2020. This shows, week by week, which NUTS 3 regions have suffered most from the increase in mortality.
In the last week of February (week 9), the NUTS 3 region Lodi, in Italy, had more than twice the number of deaths than in the same week of the previous four years. Week 10 saw the Italian regions Bergamo and Cremona joining Lodi (all in Lombardy) in recording extremely high deaths. Week 11 shows the group of heavily affected Italian northern regions growing, to include Piacenza, Parma, Brescia. The Italian regions mentioned (and also Lecco and Pesaro e Urbino) remain affected by a high number of deaths in week 12, while Spanish Soria, Segovia, Madrid, as well as Haut-Rhin in France, have more than three times the deaths than in the same week in 2016-2019. In weeks 13-14, the worst hit areas also include the Spanish regions Guadalajara, Ciudad Real, Albacete, followed by Salamanca, Cuenca and Barcelona.
Week 15 brings a decrease in the overall death values in the affected regions of Italy and Spain. In France, in Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine, Val-d'Oise, and Val-de-Marne the deaths in this week are more than three times higher than the past values. Weeks 16-17 (second half of April), while marking the overall decrease of deaths at NUTS 3 level, see several regions in Belgium, the Netherlands and also Switzerland, with more than twice the deaths recorded in the past years. Over weeks 18 to 22, the regions which are most affected are spread among several countries: Mayotte in France, several regions in Sweden and Belgium. After week 23 a gradual return to the average numbers of deaths recorded in previous years can be observed.
Deaths of men increased more rapidly
Increases in mortality after week 10 of 2020 affect men and women differently, as shown in Figure 7. From very close values in week 10, deaths of men rise faster than those of women every week until week 14. Week 14 marks the peak of mortality for both men and women over the period. Up to week 19, there are then more deaths of women than of men. From week 24 onwards an equal amount of deaths for both sexes can be observed in the EU.
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
The curves for deaths by sex are very similar, as if there was a week's difference in the timing of death increases. As a result, the men:women ratio of weekly deaths displays an atypical pattern (see Figure 8), with a peak in week 12 already. The value of 1.06 (repeated in week 13) is far above the maximum value observed for the aggregate of 23 countries in the same weeks of the years 2016 to 2019 (which reached 1.01 in week 11). When analysing the sex ratio over the period January to May 2020, week 20 marks the return to death ratios observed in the recent years.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
At country level, the variations of the men:women ratio are important, given the weekly frequency of analysis. However, the pattern observed for the 30 countries is to a large extent explained by the evolution of the ratio in Spain and Italy, as well as in the Netherlands and Belgium.
Cumulated deaths by sex over weeks 10 to 26 show that already in week 18 values are equal with almost 430 000 deaths for each sex, in the EU Member States covered by the analysis. By week 22, women have slightly more cumulated deaths, even if during weeks 21-22 the men:women ratio was above 1 (corresponding to more deaths of men).
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Increase in mortality for people aged 70 years and over
The analysis by 10-year age groups further highlights the differences in deaths among the population over the period analysed. If the period from beginning of March towards June is further split into three-week periods, different patterns emerge for different age groups as the number of deaths increases.
Weeks 10-12 are marked by increased values in 2020 in particular for the age groups 70-79 and 80-89. As weeks 13-15 are witnessing the highest number of deaths, all 10-year age groups are affected, with intensities increasing with age, to reach the highest values for the group aged 90+. Finally, weeks 19-21 and 22-24 see a gradual return to previous numbers of deaths.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_05)
When combining the weeks 12-16 as they represent almost 85 % of the total number of additional deaths in 2020, a more stable age pattern emerges. For both men and women, the age group above 90 is hardest hit, with more than 165 deaths for 100 deaths over the same weeks in 2016-2019 for men, and more than 150 for women. For both men and women, the group 70-74 stands out, with deaths comparable to those of the age group 75-89.
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_05)
_October_2020.png)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_05)
For women, all ages combined reaches nearly 140 deaths in 2020 (for 100 deaths in 2016-2019 in the same weeks), close to the value corresponding to the deaths of men. However, for men the increase is driven by the mortality from 70 years old and over, while for women it is mostly by the 90+ age group. In this period representing the peak of the outbreak, there were 56 % more deaths for men aged 70+ and 44 % more for women aged 70+ in Europe (data for 23 countries) compared with the same period in average in 2016 to 2019.
Source data for tables and graphs
Data sources
In April 2020, Eurostat launched a new weekly European data collection on weekly death counts. All EU and EFTA countries, as well as the United Kingdom and other candidate or neighbour countries were invited to provide data. Data recently published by Eurostat show the number of deaths in different European countries by week, age, sex and NUTS 3 regions. Not all breakdowns are available. Data is continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. Data were extracted from Eurostat’s online database on 15 October. Online data is preliminary and is continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. Link to metadata online
How the aggregate was constructed
This data collection may be used to get an indirect measure of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Currently 31 countries submit mortality data week by week and provided data for all weeks of the years 2016-2019 as a basis for comparison: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, UK. A data aggregation for all these countries was made for the present article in order to facilitate analysis. It is not included in the datasets on the online database of Eurostat. Ireland is not included in this aggregate due to missing data. Data received from candidate and neighbour countries are also not presented in this article. All data available are, however, presented in the Eurostat’s online database.
Context
Besides its major impact on people’s lives and populations’ economies and health care systems, the Covid-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in related statistics. Whilst the international comparability of data associated with Covid-19 may still be arguable due to possible different rules of disease/causes of death classification and coverage issues, high-frequency data on overall mortality offer a viable alternative for internationally comparable monitoring and analyses of direct and indirect effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a new special European data collection on weekly death counts, in order to support the policy and research efforts related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Data on weekly deaths up to the latest available week are transmitted and frequently updated by the National Statistical Institutes to Eurostat on a voluntary basis. These data are cross-classified by sex, 5-year age-group and NUTS 3 region. Back series up to 2000 are transmitted for temporal comparisons. When such detailed cross-classification or long back series are not possible, less granular data or shorter time series may be provided to Eurostat by participating countries. Taking in due consideration the urgent need for statistical information for mortality monitoring, this data collection has been designed with timeliness as primary target.
See also
Dedicated section
Methodology
- Weekly deaths (demomwk_esms)