Presidential battleground states, 2020
Battleground states are states that have split support for Democratic and Republican candidates in recent presidential election cycles. Sometimes referred to as swing states or purple states, they are critical to a candidate's campaign strategy since the majority of states consistently vote for the same presidential party and are not competitive.
Using the average of race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, Ballotpedia identified 13 battleground states. These are the states on which an electoral victory hinged:
President Donald Trump (R) won five of these battleground states: Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) won the other eight: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Heading into the 2016 presidential election, for example, 40 states—representing 421 electoral votes[1]—had voted for the same political party in the previous four election cycles. While President Donald Trump's (R) victory broke this streak in several midwestern states in 2016, much of the Electoral College in the 2020 presidential election is already set.[2]
This page includes the following information about battleground states:
- Presidential election results
- Lawsuits related to the 2020 presidential election
- Presidential race ratings
- Overview of battleground states
- Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
- PredictIt markets
- Historical performance of third-party candidates
Contents
- 1 Presidential election results
- 2 Lawsuits related to the 2020 presidential election
- 3 2020 presidential race ratings
- 4 Battleground states
- 5 Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
- 6 PredictIt markets
- 7 Performance of third-party candidates, 2000-2016
- 8 Early voting
- 9 See also
- 10 Footnotes
Presidential election results
The following is a list of post-election lawsuits involving the presidential election. Where available, case names and numbers, states of origin, courts of origin, and links to complaints and docket reports are provided.
2020 presidential race ratings
The following map reflects the average presidential race rating for each state as forecast by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Latest updates
Sabato's Crystal Ball also updated its race ratings on November 2, 2020:[3]
- Florida, Iowa, Maine's 2nd Congressional District, and Ohio moved from Toss Up to Leans Republican.
- Georgia and North Carolina moved from Toss Up to Leans Democratic.
Inside Elections updated its race ratings on October 28, 2020:[4]
- Texas moved from Tilt Republican to Toss Up.
- Georgia and North Carolina moved from Toss Up to Tilt Democratic.
The Cook Political Report updated its race ratings on October 28, 2020:[5]
- Texas moved from Leans Republican to Toss Up.
Battleground states
This section contains polls and election results for each of the battleground states. Click on the state's name for more information.
Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.
As of Dec. 11, there were:
- 181 Retained Pivot Counties across 32 states: Trump won these counties with a median margin of victory of 13.2 percentage points.
- 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties across 16 states: Biden won these counties with a median margin of victory of 3.4 percentage points.
Click "Show More" to view the list of all 206 Pivot Counties, the winner of those counties following the 2020 election, and margins of victory from 2008 to 2020.
Analysis of counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[18] | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | State | Winner, 2020 | Margin of Victory, 2020 | Trump Margin of Victory, 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory, 2008 | |
Woodruff County | Arkansas | Trump | +27.75 | +8.91 | +4.21 | +7.46 | |
Conejos County | Colorado | Trump | +7.55 | +3.56 | +9.22 | +12.93 | |
Huerfano County | Colorado | Trump | +2.88 | +6.61 | +8.27 | +11.23 | |
Las Animas County | Colorado | Trump | +9.89 | +15.6 | +2.65 | +7.04 | |
Pueblo County | Colorado | Biden | +1.72 | +0.5 | +13.99 | +14.97 | |
Windham County | Connecticut | Trump | +4.27 | +7.78 | +13.28 | +14.68 | |
Kent County | Delaware | Biden | +4.07 | +4.87 | +4.94 | +9.81 | |
Jefferson County | Florida | Trump | +6.87 | +5.06 | +1.75 | +3.66 | |
Monroe County | Florida | Trump | +7.92 | +6.82 | +0.44 | +4.9 | |
Pinellas County | Florida | Biden | +0.22 | +1.11 | +5.65 | +8.25 | |
St. Lucie County | Florida | Trump | +1.56 | +2.4 | +7.86 | +12.12 | |
Baker County | Georgia | Trump | +15.76 | +8.68 | +0.57 | +1.07 | |
Dooly County | Georgia | Trump | +6.04 | +2.05 | +6.98 | +3.53 | |
Peach County | Georgia | Trump | +4.65 | +2.91 | +7.48 | +6.75 | |
Quitman County | Georgia | Trump | +9.67 | +10.92 | +9.04 | +7.9 | |
Twiggs County | Georgia | Trump | +7.34 | +1.58 | +8.64 | +6.97 | |
Alexander County | Illinois | Trump | +14.21 | +8.3 | +13.65 | +12.62 | |
Carroll County | Illinois | Trump | +29.37 | +26.69 | +1.49 | +4.81 | |
Fulton County | Illinois | Trump | +20.11 | +14.93 | +11.04 | +21.33 | |
Henderson County | Illinois | Trump | +33.1 | +28.43 | +12.25 | +17.67 | |
Henry County | Illinois | Trump | +21.47 | +20.99 | +3.08 | +7.74 | |
Jo Daviess County | Illinois | Trump | +16.46 | +14.64 | +1.16 | +10.49 | |
Knox County | Illinois | Trump | +5.64 | +2.91 | +17.37 | +19.89 | |
Mercer County | Illinois | Trump | +23.98 | +20.36 | +7.39 | +11.91 | |
Putnam County | Illinois | Trump | +19.32 | +19.92 | +1.82 | +15.64 | |
Warren County | Illinois | Trump | +20.02 | +16.5 | +5.47 | +8.08 | |
Whiteside County | Illinois | Trump | +8.31 | +6.18 | +17.02 | +17.56 | |
Delaware County | Indiana | Trump | +13.18 | +13.43 | +3.12 | +14.98 | |
LaPorte County | Indiana | Trump | +7.23 | +6.33 | +12.57 | +22.04 | |
Perry County | Indiana | Trump | +24.56 | +18.55 | +11.59 | +22.84 | |
Porter County | Indiana | Trump | +6.08 | +6.59 | +3.9 | +7.2 | |
Vigo County | Indiana | Trump | +14.73 | +14.97 | +0.86 | +15.83 | |
Allamakee County | Iowa | Trump | +29.09 | +24.15 | +4.17 | +14.25 | |
Boone County | Iowa | Trump | +15.59 | +13.69 | +6.64 | +7.63 | |
Bremer County | Iowa | Trump | +16.06 | +13.68 | +2.68 | +9.31 | |
Buchanan County | Iowa | Trump | +20.89 | +15.02 | +13.87 | +18.48 | |
Cedar County | Iowa | Trump | +17.04 | +17.78 | +4.59 | +9.64 | |
Cerro Gordo County | Iowa | Trump | +6.31 | +7.66 | +13.38 | +20.83 | |
Chickasaw County | Iowa | Trump | +31.29 | +22.94 | +11.07 | +20.74 | |
Clarke County | Iowa | Trump | +35.93 | +28.02 | +1.47 | +2.25 | |
Clayton County | Iowa | Trump | +28.83 | +22.78 | +7.03 | +17.17 | |
Clinton County | Iowa | Trump | +10.33 | +5.12 | +22.84 | +23.03 | |
Des Moines County | Iowa | Trump | +8.51 | +6.89 | +18.41 | +23.04 | |
Dubuque County | Iowa | Trump | +2.89 | +1.23 | +14.71 | +20.77 | |
Fayette County | Iowa | Trump | +22.68 | +19.36 | +11.96 | +16.6 | |
Floyd County | Iowa | Trump | +19.42 | +14.84 | +14.63 | +21.88 | |
Howard County | Iowa | Trump | +27.33 | +20.49 | +20.95 | +25.78 | |
Jackson County | Iowa | Trump | +26.14 | +19.27 | +16.89 | +24.39 | |
Jasper County | Iowa | Trump | +21.54 | +18.13 | +7.07 | +7.5 | |
Jefferson County | Iowa | Trump | +1.38 | +0.47 | +15.97 | +20.23 | |
Jones County | Iowa | Trump | +21.47 | +19.08 | +7.78 | +10.4 | |
Lee County | Iowa | Trump | +19.31 | +16.02 | +15.49 | +16.01 | |
Louisa County | Iowa | Trump | +33.27 | +28.37 | +0.64 | +4.25 | |
Marshall County | Iowa | Trump | +7.69 | +8.31 | +9.36 | +9.35 | |
Mitchell County | Iowa | Trump | +27.89 | +24.04 | +3.37 | +12.31 | |
Muscatine County | Iowa | Trump | +7.02 | +6.26 | +15.88 | +15.64 | |
Poweshiek County | Iowa | Trump | +13.32 | +6.53 | +9.35 | +11.75 | |
Tama County | Iowa | Trump | +19.08 | +20.28 | +7.43 | +12.19 | |
Union County | Iowa | Trump | +31.51 | +27.49 | +3.86 | +3.7 | |
Wapello County | Iowa | Trump | +23.64 | +20.6 | +11.88 | +13.53 | |
Webster County | Iowa | Trump | +24.27 | +21.52 | +5.84 | +8.51 | |
Winneshiek County | Iowa | Trump | +5.12 | +0.79 | +14.74 | +22.65 | |
Worth County | Iowa | Trump | +25.85 | +21.68 | +14.53 | +22.42 | |
Elliott County | Kentucky | Trump | +51.22 | +44.13 | +2.5 | +25.17 | |
Androscoggin County | Maine | Trump | +2.81 | +9.38 | +12.78 | +15.22 | |
Aroostook County | Maine | Trump | +19.93 | +17.19 | +7.62 | +9.58 | |
Franklin County | Maine | Trump | +3.94 | +5.47 | +18.41 | +20.29 | |
Kennebec County | Maine | Biden | +0.25 | +3.58 | +13.46 | +14.78 | |
Oxford County | Maine | Trump | +8.79 | +12.94 | +14.73 | +16.04 | |
Penobscot County | Maine | Trump | +8.34 | +10.91 | +2.93 | +5.12 | |
Somerset County | Maine | Trump | +23.37 | +22.67 | +1.68 | +5.7 | |
Washington County | Maine | Trump | +19.78 | +18.44 | +1.6 | +1.01 | |
Bay County | Michigan | Trump | +11.57 | +12.55 | +5.56 | +15.31 | |
Calhoun County | Michigan | Trump | +11.08 | +12.46 | +1.6 | +9.36 | |
Eaton County | Michigan | Trump | +0.78 | +4.72 | +3.13 | +8.4 | |
Gogebic County | Michigan | Trump | +12.45 | +14.8 | +8.1 | +17.27 | |
Isabella County | Michigan | Trump | +2.52 | +3.66 | +9.28 | +19.26 | |
Lake County | Michigan | Trump | +26.18 | +22.77 | +5.01 | +12.28 | |
Macomb County | Michigan | Trump | +8.07 | +11.53 | +3.99 | +8.62 | |
Manistee County | Michigan | Trump | +15.11 | +15.29 | +5.93 | +13.26 | |
Monroe County | Michigan | Trump | +22.61 | +21.97 | +0.98 | +4.35 | |
Saginaw County | Michigan | Biden | +0.29 | +1.13 | +11.89 | +17.34 | |
Shiawassee County | Michigan | Trump | +19.85 | +19.59 | +3.67 | +8.59 | |
Van Buren County | Michigan | Trump | +12.23 | +13.92 | +0.45 | +8.78 | |
Beltrami County | Minnesota | Trump | +3.15 | +9.72 | +9.89 | +10.15 | |
Blue Earth County | Minnesota | Biden | +4.44 | +3.69 | +9.48 | +12.95 | |
Chippewa County | Minnesota | Trump | +30.62 | +28.7 | +1.87 | +5.87 | |
Clay County | Minnesota | Biden | +4.08 | +1.95 | +7.92 | +16.02 | |
Fillmore County | Minnesota | Trump | +22.65 | +21.7 | +7.34 | +8.26 | |
Freeborn County | Minnesota | Trump | +15.99 | +17.24 | +14.11 | +17.13 | |
Houston County | Minnesota | Trump | +12.95 | +13.87 | +3.16 | +10.69 | |
Itasca County | Minnesota | Trump | +16.76 | +16.35 | +9.83 | +12.92 | |
Kittson County | Minnesota | Trump | +20.46 | +22.05 | +6.03 | +18.54 | |
Koochiching County | Minnesota | Trump | +21.27 | +19.85 | +9.45 | +10.1 | |
Lac qui Parle County | Minnesota | Trump | +26.81 | +25.6 | +0.9 | +5.92 | |
Mahnomen County | Minnesota | Trump | +1.3 | +2.92 | +18.56 | +25.31 | |
Mower County | Minnesota | Trump | +5.82 | +7.82 | +22.61 | +23.61 | |
Nicollet County | Minnesota | Biden | +3.16 | +3.04 | +7.83 | +10.52 | |
Norman County | Minnesota | Trump | +15.98 | +13.34 | +10.79 | +26.94 | |
Rice County | Minnesota | Trump | +0.17 | +3.06 | +8.27 | +11.5 | |
Swift County | Minnesota | Trump | +29.5 | +25.57 | +9.83 | +13.79 | |
Traverse County | Minnesota | Trump | +27.41 | +23.3 | +4.44 | +5.41 | |
Winona County | Minnesota | Biden | +0.39 | +2.9 | +12.85 | +19.09 | |
Chickasaw County | Mississippi | Trump | +4.48 | +6.06 | +4.52 | +2.13 | |
Panola County | Mississippi | Trump | +4.2 | +0.12 | +8.62 | +6.52 | |
Blaine County | Montana | Biden | +3.85 | +2.46 | +15.32 | +19.24 | |
Hill County | Montana | Trump | +13.59 | +17.18 | +3.5 | +12.21 | |
Roosevelt County | Montana | Trump | +2.14 | +6.49 | +15.58 | +26.27 | |
Thurston County | Nebraska | Trump | +2.44 | +5.94 | +13.91 | +6.96 | |
Coos County | New Hampshire | Trump | +5.91 | +8.89 | +17.54 | +18.19 | |
Hillsborough County | New Hampshire | Biden | +7.65 | +0.2 | +1.12 | +3.73 | |
Sullivan County | New Hampshire | Biden | +3.61 | +2.58 | +13.27 | +17.93 | |
Gloucester County | New Jersey | Biden | +1.94 | +0.48 | +10.77 | +12.16 | |
Salem County | New Jersey | Trump | +12.77 | +15 | +1.31 | +3.92 | |
Colfax County | New Mexico | Trump | +10.97 | +8.55 | +2.24 | +10.73 | |
Hidalgo County | New Mexico | Trump | +15.05 | +6.73 | +4.96 | +2.92 | |
Valencia County | New Mexico | Trump | +9.61 | +8.6 | +2.47 | +7.72 | |
Broome County | New York | Biden | +3.45 | +2.01 | +5.31 | +8.02 | |
Cayuga County | New York | Trump | +9.22 | +11.64 | +11.4 | +8.48 | |
Cortland County | New York | Trump | +1.93 | +5.58 | +9.11 | +9.96 | |
Essex County | New York | Biden | +5.03 | +1.14 | +18.77 | +13.32 | |
Franklin County | New York | Trump | +2.15 | +5.45 | +26.07 | +22.23 | |
Madison County | New York | Trump | +10.55 | +14.2 | +0.89 | +0.87 | |
Niagara County | New York | Trump | +9.64 | +17.75 | +0.84 | +1 | |
Orange County | New York | Trump | +0.18 | +5.5 | +5.65 | +4.13 | |
Oswego County | New York | Trump | +20.13 | +21.99 | +7.93 | +2.44 | |
Otsego County | New York | Trump | +5.01 | +11.13 | +2.72 | +5.91 | |
Rensselaer County | New York | Biden | +5.63 | +1.41 | +12.19 | +9.34 | |
St. Lawrence County | New York | Trump | +11.68 | +8.82 | +16.71 | +16.33 | |
Saratoga County | New York | Biden | +5.39 | +3.21 | +2.44 | +3.4 | |
Seneca County | New York | Trump | +9.05 | +11.01 | +9.08 | +2.6 | |
Suffolk County | New York | Trump | +0.03 | +6.84 | +3.69 | +5.99 | |
Sullivan County | New York | Trump | +9.15 | +11.23 | +9.02 | +9.46 | |
Warren County | New York | Trump | +0.16 | +8.47 | +2.32 | +2.64 | |
Washington County | New York | Trump | +15.55 | +18.4 | +1.9 | +0.81 | |
Bladen County | North Carolina | Trump | +13.72 | +9.39 | +1.97 | +2.07 | |
Gates County | North Carolina | Trump | +13.75 | +9.07 | +4.11 | +5.22 | |
Granville County | North Carolina | Trump | +6.59 | +2.49 | +4.54 | +6.58 | |
Martin County | North Carolina | Trump | +4.95 | +0.43 | +4.65 | +4.64 | |
Richmond County | North Carolina | Trump | +14.81 | +9.74 | +2.95 | +1.5 | |
Robeson County | North Carolina | Trump | +18.62 | +4.27 | +17.41 | +13.78 | |
Benson County | North Dakota | Trump | +13.87 | +4.33 | +17.01 | +33.53 | |
Ransom County | North Dakota | Trump | +19.27 | +15.77 | +13.77 | +15.33 | |
Sargent County | North Dakota | Trump | +25.51 | +19.73 | +9.77 | +17.49 | |
Steele County | North Dakota | Trump | +23.9 | +17.72 | +1.92 | +20.35 | |
Ashtabula County | Ohio | Trump | +23.49 | +18.8 | +12.78 | +13.54 | |
Erie County | Ohio | Trump | +11.55 | +9.48 | +12.29 | +13.86 | |
Montgomery County | Ohio | Biden | +2.24 | +0.73 | +4.62 | +6.22 | |
Ottawa County | Ohio | Trump | +23.37 | +19.51 | +4.3 | +6.24 | |
Portage County | Ohio | Trump | +12.44 | +9.87 | +5.52 | +8.99 | |
Sandusky County | Ohio | Trump | +27.55 | +22.58 | +2.71 | +4.64 | |
Stark County | Ohio | Trump | +18.51 | +17.17 | +0.47 | +5.46 | |
Trumbull County | Ohio | Trump | +10.55 | +6.22 | +23 | +22.43 | |
Wood County | Ohio | Trump | +7.6 | +7.99 | +4.84 | +7.13 | |
Columbia County | Oregon | Trump | +10.29 | +11.46 | +5.16 | +12.02 | |
Tillamook County | Oregon | Trump | +1.71 | +5.58 | +4.86 | +9.89 | |
Erie County | Pennsylvania | Biden | +1.03 | +1.56 | +16.03 | +19.88 | |
Luzerne County | Pennsylvania | Trump | +14.36 | +19.31 | +4.81 | +8.41 | |
Northampton County | Pennsylvania | Biden | +0.72 | +3.78 | +4.71 | +12.3 | |
Kent County | Rhode Island | Biden | +7.64 | +0.67 | +17.74 | +17.4 | |
Barnwell County | South Carolina | Trump | +7.48 | +5.16 | +5.33 | +1.65 | |
Calhoun County | South Carolina | Trump | +4.82 | +2.83 | +4.31 | +3.55 | |
Chester County | South Carolina | Trump | +10.91 | +4.83 | +10.58 | +8.3 | |
Colleton County | South Carolina | Trump | +9.53 | +8.49 | +0.19 | +0.53 | |
McCormick County | South Carolina | Trump | +4.76 | +3.32 | +3.6 | +6.08 | |
Corson County | South Dakota | Trump | +1.95 | +4.51 | +11.08 | +21.48 | |
Day County | South Dakota | Trump | +27.56 | +23.77 | +6.16 | +12.89 | |
Marshall County | South Dakota | Trump | +19.7 | +15.51 | +8.66 | +16.48 | |
Roberts County | South Dakota | Trump | +13.37 | +15.53 | +9.84 | +19.64 | |
Ziebach County | South Dakota | Biden | +8.5 | +1.96 | +16.43 | +27.16 | |
Hardeman County | Tennessee | Trump | +15.7 | +7.92 | +5.91 | +6.18 | |
Jefferson County | Texas | Trump | +1.58 | +0.48 | +1.61 | +2.25 | |
Essex County | Vermont | Trump | +11.19 | +16.65 | +13.4 | +14.48 | |
Buckingham County | Virginia | Trump | +13.2 | +11.28 | +2.43 | +0.87 | |
Caroline County | Virginia | Trump | +4.17 | +5.02 | +8.24 | +11.97 | |
Essex County | Virginia | Trump | +0.6 | +2.14 | +7.3 | +10.35 | |
Nelson County | Virginia | Trump | +5.21 | +5.59 | +2.72 | +9.15 | |
Westmoreland County | Virginia | Trump | +8.23 | +7.14 | +6.95 | +10.24 | |
Clallam County | Washington | Biden | +3.37 | +2.76 | +0.38 | +3.3 | |
Cowlitz County | Washington | Trump | +17.4 | +13.32 | +4.44 | +11.15 | |
Grays Harbor County | Washington | Trump | +6.56 | +6.99 | +14.11 | +14.56 | |
Mason County | Washington | Trump | +3.86 | +5.81 | +7.09 | +8.66 | |
Pacific County | Washington | Trump | +1.13 | +6.74 | +11.52 | +14.07 | |
Adams County | Wisconsin | Trump | +25.66 | +21.92 | +8.73 | +18.35 | |
Buffalo County | Wisconsin | Trump | +25.26 | +21.82 | +2.93 | +14.66 | |
Columbia County | Wisconsin | Trump | +1.53 | +2.14 | +13.58 | +15.26 | |
Crawford County | Wisconsin | Trump | +7.67 | +5.4 | +19.98 | +27.03 | |
Door County | Wisconsin | Biden | +1.45 | +3.22 | +6.99 | +17.33 | |
Dunn County | Wisconsin | Trump | +13.93 | +11.09 | +4.97 | +14.95 | |
Forest County | Wisconsin | Trump | +30.95 | +26.58 | +5.44 | +15.16 | |
Grant County | Wisconsin | Trump | +12.28 | +9.43 | +13.77 | +23.88 | |
Jackson County | Wisconsin | Trump | +15.07 | +11.74 | +15.01 | +21.84 | |
Juneau County | Wisconsin | Trump | +29.2 | +26.05 | +7.03 | +9 | |
Kenosha County | Wisconsin | Trump | +3.13 | +0.31 | +12.23 | +18.06 | |
Lafayette County | Wisconsin | Trump | +13.72 | +8.99 | +15.37 | +22.32 | |
Lincoln County | Wisconsin | Trump | +22.77 | +20.6 | +0.71 | +12.48 | |
Marquette County | Wisconsin | Trump | +27.36 | +24.09 | +0.27 | +5.28 | |
Pepin County | Wisconsin | Trump | +26.42 | +23.08 | +2.22 | +12.89 | |
Price County | Wisconsin | Trump | +27.64 | +25 | +0.04 | +13.4 | |
Racine County | Wisconsin | Trump | +4.06 | +4.28 | +3.54 | +7.41 | |
Richland County | Wisconsin | Trump | +9.72 | +5.5 | +16.13 | +20.63 | |
Sauk County | Wisconsin | Biden | +1.7 | +0.35 | +18.47 | +23.04 | |
Sawyer County | Wisconsin | Trump | +13.43 | +18.41 | +0.49 | +6.23 | |
Trempealeau County | Wisconsin | Trump | +16.57 | +12.64 | +14.08 | +26.39 | |
Vernon County | Wisconsin | Trump | +4.78 | +4.43 | +14.73 | +22 | |
Winnebago County | Wisconsin | Trump | +3.97 | +7.34 | +3.73 | +11.66 | |
Average | +11.45 | +8.22 | +12.29 | ||||
Median | +9.41 | +7.32 | +11.94 |
Last updated Dec. 11, 9:30 a.m. ET
PredictIt markets
What is a PredictIt market?
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.
The price of a share in each individual contract rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a $1 payout for each share they held.
For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.
Why do PredictIt markets matter?
Services such as PredictIt are being used to gain insight into the likely outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argues that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."[19][20][21]
Battleground states
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin
Performance of third-party candidates, 2000-2016
The following two charts show the vote share of candidates running as Libertarian or Green Party candidates in presidential battlegrounds between 2000 and 2016.[22]
Vote share for Libertarian Party presidential candidate by battleground state, 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 | 2004 | 2000 |
Arizona | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
Florida | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Georgia | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% |
Iowa | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Michigan | 3.6% | N/A | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
Minnesota | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Nevada | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
New Hampshire | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | N/A | 0.5% |
North Carolina | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
Ohio | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | N/A | 0.3% |
Pennsylvania | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Texas | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
Wisconsin | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Vote share for Green Party presidential candidate by battleground state, 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 | 2004 | 2000 |
Arizona | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | N/A | 3.0% |
Florida | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.6% |
Georgia | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Iowa | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.2% |
Michigan | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.0% |
Minnesota | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 5.2% |
Nevada | N/A | N/A | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.5% |
New Hampshire | 0.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.9% |
North Carolina | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Ohio | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | N/A | N/A |
Pennsylvania | 0.8% | 0.4% | N/A | 0.1% | 2.1% |
Texas | 0.8% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | 2.2% |
Wisconsin | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.6% |
Early voting
- See also: Early voting dates, 2020
The following table comprises three columns with information about early voting in each state.
Each of the table's three columns can be sorted alphabetically or chronologically. To sort a column, click the column heading. To search for a state, enter the state name in the search bar above the upper right-hand corner of the table.
By default, the table displays 10 states at a time. To see additional states on subsequent pages, use the navigation prompts under the bottom right-hand corner of the table. To change the number of states displayed on a single page, use the drop-down menu above the upper left-hand corner of the table.
See also
- Presidential election, 2020
- Democratic presidential nomination, 2020
- Republican presidential nomination, 2020
- Pivot Counties
- Pivot Counties: How Obama-Obama-Trump counties voted in presidential elections since 1992
Footnotes
- ↑ This tally includes one congressional district in Nebraska with the same consistent record
- ↑ 270 to Win, "Electoral Map: Blue or Red States Since 2000," accessed July 15, 2020
- ↑ Sabato's Crystall Ball, "2020 Rating Changes," accessed November 2, 2020
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Presidential Ratings," October 28, 2020
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up," October 28, 2020
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2012 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Election Atlas, "2008 Presidential Election Results," accessed December 29, 2014
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
- ↑ Nature, "The power of prediction markets," October 18, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018
- ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections, "Election Results," accessed October 2, 2020
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