Byline: Paul Johnson
WATCHING videos of recent Third Division play-off finals has proved an admirable cure for insomnia but perhaps Blackpool will buck the trend of boredom by beating Leyton Orient at Cardiff's Millennium Stadium.
Backing both finalists to win 1-0 has been a simple way to make a mint over the last five years but Blackpool's strength is not their defending and and that scoreline is best swerved this time.
The Seasiders won their last three Division Three matches and sneaked the last play-off place ahead of Rochdale.
Steve McMahon's men then turned league form upside down by beating Hartlepool 5-1 on aggregate in the semi-finals and, although that victory margin flattered them, they were the better team over the two legs.
The fact they were able to complete the job against the Monkey Hangers despite the absence of Paul Simpson, their most creative player, was reassuring, as was their swift response to the setback of their opponents' equaliser.
Veteran Simpson is the major injury doubt with a calf strain. Centre-back Brian Reid is expected to recover from a knee knock, although the first name Blackpool fans look for on the teamsheet these days must be industrious Brett Ormerod, whose hot streak in the closing stages of the campaign has brought him nine goals in the last seven games.
Former Manchester United youngster Richard Wellens has plenty to offer in midfield, while the presence of seasoned campaigners like Simpson, Reid, Gary Parkinson, Phil Clarkson and Mike Milligan should help steady any nerves among the juniors.
One of the few negatives for Blackpool is the rejection of their appeal to be allowed to play on-loan Danny Shittu.
Leyton Orient, who lost by the traditional margin to Scunthorpe in a dire final two seasons ago, became difficult to beat in the last few weeks of this term, losing to only Mansfield in their last 11 starts before overcoming Hull 2-1 on aggregate in the semis.
They are no pushovers and their much-scouted full-back Matt Lockwood is always capable of conjuring up a goal from long range but the suspension of strikers Steve Watts and Carl Griffiths leaves a heavy burden on the teenage shoulders of Jabo Ibehre.
Orient took four points from the league encounters but the elimination of Hartlepool and Birmingham in this year's semis reminds us that previous form between the teams should not be overrated in post-season situations.
Blackpool, who suffered the ignominy of a 7-0 thrashing by relegated Barnet last November, put six past Scunthorpe without reply three months later.
They are essentially a death-or-glory outfit - no side in England drew fewer matches this season. With Ormerod in his current mood, however many Orient score, Blackpool should score more.
Recommendations
Blackpool to win in 90 mins
6pts 11-8 (general)
Blackpool to win 2-1
1pt 17-2 (Surrey)
Brett Ormerod to score first goal
1pt 6-1 (Tote)