Informations Rapides · 29 June 2021 · n° 167

In Q1 2021, the unemployment rate was virtually stable at 8.1 %ILO Unemployment and Labour Market-related indicators (Labour Force Survey results) - first quarter 2021

In Q1 2021, the number of unemployed people in France (excluding Mayotte) reached 2.4 million, up by 18,000 over the quarter. Thus the ILO unemployment rate was virtually stable (+0.1 points), at 8.1% of the active population, after a 1.1 point decrease in the previous quarter. It was 0.3 points above its previous year level earlier and returned to its level at the end of 2019, before the health crisis.

This virtual stability contrasts with the large variations observed in 2020. In Q2 2020, despite an unprecedented fall in employment, the unemployment rate saw a « trompe-l’oeil » decline by 0.7 points. Indeed, a large number of people had temporarily switched to inactivity (halo around unemployment or inactivity outside the halo), notably because they were unable to carry out active job searches under the usual conditions. In Q3 2020, the return to a more usual job search behaviour and a still depressed employment level led to a strong rebound in the unemployment rate: +2.0 points. Finally, in Q4 2020, the unemployment rate fell by 1.1 points, due to the continued rebound in employment on average over the quarter and the slight drop in the activity rate linked to the second containment. At the beginning of 2021, the virtual stability in the unemployment rate was the result of both the stability of the employment rate and a persistent withdrawal behaviour from the labour market, due to the crisis and the ongoing sanitary restrictions.

In Q1 2021, the unemployment rate increased for people aged 15-24 (+1.2 points), was almost stable for those aged 25-49 (+0.1 points) and decreased for those aged 50 or more (-0.3 points).

It was below its pre-crisis level (at the end of 2019) for young people (-0.3 points) and oldest people (-0.4 points) but above it for people of intermediate aged persons (+0.2 points).

Among the inactive people as defined by the ILO, 2.0 million want a job without being considered unemployed: they made up the halo around unemployment. This situation concerns 4.8% of people aged 15 to 64 . This share was almost stable over the quarter (-0.1 points); it remained at a slightly higher level than before the crisis (+0.1 points), but much lower (-2.2 points) from the peak reached in Q2 2020, which was the temporary counterpart of the « tompe-l’oeil » fall in unemployment.

Among the unemployed people, 0.7 million declared that they have been searching a job for at least one year. The long-term unemployment rate stood at 2.5% of the active population in Q1 2021, up by 0.4 points compared to the previous quarter (+126,000 people). This sharp increase, while the unemployment rate was virtually stable, reflects the fact that the economic crisis has been affecting those furthest from employment for a year now.

On average in Q1 2021, the employment rate of people aged 15 to 64 was stable to 66.5%, after a 0.6 points increase at the end of 2020. It was 0.3 points below its level one year earlier, which was also the level at the end of 2019.

The employment rate rose by 0.2 points for young people and older people but fell by 0.2 points for people of intermediate age. Compared to their respective pre-crisis levels, the employment rate for young people was almost the same (-0.1 points), that of older people was 0.6 points higher, while that of people aged 25-49 was 0.7 points lower.

The employment rate increased over the quarter for men (+0.5 points) but decreased for women (-0.4 points). This difference largely offset the opposite changes in previous quarters: in total over a year, the employment rate fell by 0.4 points for men and by 0.2 points for women.

In Q1 2021, the share of underemployment in employment was stable at 8.1%. It reached an exceptional peak in Q2 2020, at 15.7%, including 10.6% of people in technical unemployment or partial activity, and then fell back in Q3. By the end of 2020, it had slightly risen again due to the second containment.

Underemployment exceeded its pre-crisis level (end of 2019) by 2.2 points. This increase entirely came from people who had involuntarily worked less than usual (including temporary layoff and partial working): 2.8% of those in employment at the beginning of 2021 compared to only 0.2% before the crisis.

At the beginning of 2021, more than one out of five participants in the labour market (active or in the halo aroud unemployment) were constrained in their labour supply, either by the absence of a job (unemployed or halo around unemployment), or in a situation of underemployment. This share was stable over the quarter, at 20.9%, 2.1 points above its level at the end of 2019 but 7.9 points below its peak in Q2 2020.

In Q1 2021, the average number of hours worked increased by 1.0% to 31.0 hours per week (seasonally adjusted data). After an unprecedented low in Q2 2020 (-12.9%), the average number of weekly hours worked per job rebounded (+20.3%) in Q3. However, at the beginning of 2021, the average number of hours worked per job was still below its pre-crisis level (by 1.3% compared to the end of 2019).

The full-time employment rate stood at 54.7% in Q1 2021. It fell by 0.3 points over the quarter and over a year. However, the part-time employment rate increased over the quarter (+0.2 points) and was now almost back to its level of early 2020 (-0.1 points). As a result, the proportion of part-time employment rose by 0.3 points over the quarter, to 18.3%.

The permanent employment rate for people aged 15 to 64 reached 50.2% in Q1 2021. It was almost stable (-0.1 point), after a 0.7 points increase in the previous quarter. It stood 0.2 points above its level at the beginning of 2020. The rate of employment on fixed-term contract or temporary work was also virtually stable over the quarter (-0.1 points). After an unprecedented fall in Q2 2020, it had partially recovered in Q3. At 6.1% at the beginning of 2021, it was 1.2 points below its high level at the end of 2017 and 0.7 points below its level at the beginning of 2020.

The activity rate of people aged 15 to 64 was stable over the quarter, at 72.4%. It fell by 2.3 points in Q2 2020, during the first containment, then recovered in the third quarter. At the end of 2020, it fell slightly again (-0.2 points), during the second containment.

In total, the activity rate was 0.4 points below its level before the health crisis at the end of 2019. This decline was the result of people withdrawing from the labour market into inactivity, in particular by ceasing their job search due to sanitary restrictions. Compared to the end of 2019, the participation rate was almost at the same level for men (+0.1 points) but 0.9 points lower for women.

Over the quarter, the activity rate rose sharply for young people (+0.9 points), fell for those aged 25 to 49 (-0.2 points) and was almost stable for those aged 50 to 64 (-0.1 points). Compared to the end of 2019, it was down for young people (-0.3 points) and 25-49 year old people (-0.6 points) but up for those aged 50 to 64 (+0.2 points).

At the beginning of 2021, the share of young people aged 15 to 29 neither in employment nor in education or training (NEET) increased by 0.3 percentage points to 13.1%, after a 0.4 points fall in the previous quarter due to a relative improvement in youth employment. This quarter it stood 0.8 percentage points above its pre-crisis level.

In order to estimate the breaks induced by the overhaul of the French labor force survey, a vast methodological "Pilot survey” was conducted throughout the year 2020 and in the first quarter of 2021. The pilot survey allowed estimating backward-looking "break free" series of the main economic indicators, in order to continue to shed light on the labor market over the long term.

All in all, the level of the main labour market indicators is more or less modified depending on the indicator. In particular, compared to the old version of the survey, the employment rate for people aged 15 to 64 is raised by 0.8 points in 2020, while the unemployment rate is unchanged. The share of the so-called “halo around unemployment” among people aged 15 to 64 is raised by 0.8 points. Finally, the long-term unemployment rate is lowered by 1.0 point due to a change in the definition of the "last job" held. The trends in all the break-adjusted indicators are virtually unchanged over the past, especially during the health and economic crisis of 2020. All these changes and their impact on the main published indicators are presented in an "Insee Analyses" published on 29 June 2021.

The next publication, relative to Q2 2021, is scheduled for 13 August 2021 at 7:30 am.