Welcome to National Security Daily, POLITICO’s newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I’m Alex Ward, your guide to what’s happening inside the Pentagon, the NSC and D.C.’s foreign policy machine. National Security Daily arrives in your inbox Monday through Friday by 4 p.m.; subscribe here.

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As NatSec Daily talks to our contacts, we’re hearing two nuanced critiques of President JOE BIDEN and the quickly spiraling situation in Afghanistan.

First: While the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan was completely defensible after 20 years of war, the way the administration has mishandled the pullout — culminating in 3,000 troops surging to Kabul to evacuate personnel from the American embassy — has been nothing short of disastrous. It’s gotten so bad that ZALMAY KHALILZAD, the under-fire U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan, is pleading with the Taliban not to attack the embassy if and when the militants target the capital city.

The Pentagon is already planning for a full withdrawal of the American mission in Kabul, three sources familiar with the preparation tell NatSec Daily, with two separately saying U.S. Central Command sees a full embassy evacuation as “inevitable.” And the embassy’s facility manager sent out a memo to staff Friday ordering them to start destroying sensitive documents and equipment now.

“Facilities will provide destruction support between 0830 and 1600 daily until further notice. Please take advantage and reduce the amount of sensitive material on the property,” the memo, obtained by NatSec Daily, reads. “Please also include items with embassy or agency logos, American flags, or items which could be misused in propaganda efforts.” The memo directs personnel to rid the materials via burn bins, a disintegrator, an incinerator or a compactor.

A State Department spokesperson said Kabul mission personnel are undertaking a "standard operating procedure designed to minimize our footprint across various categories, including staffing, equipment, and supplies."

It’s safe to say things aren’t going well. “Ending a war takes almost as much creativity, judgment and effort as winning one. Many on the Biden team saw how to bring a war to a close in Iraq in 2011. Reflecting on how this got bungled is probably as important for the future of American foreign policy as why we’re leaving. It's incumbent now to look for ways to fix management and implementation for the next crisis,” said JOHN GANS, a former Pentagon official during the Obama era who’s now at the University of Pennsylvania.

Second: Although U.S. government assessments were clear a Taliban takeover was likely after the military’s departure, many seemed to miss the speed with which the militants would sweep across Afghanistan, to include the recent capture of the second- and third-largest cities in the country.

Though in fairness, the Trump administration missed the mark, too. During the transition, “I briefed someone and told them the government would likely fall within one to two years. Boy, was I off,” said LISA CURTIS, the top Trump NSC official for Afghanistan.

Biden’s team clearly feels on the ropes, with White House chief of staff RON KLAIN retweeting defenses of the withdrawal amid his busy schedule. But NatSec Daily has spoken with many people in and outside the administration who say the general attitude is that Americans off Twitter and enjoying August vacations don’t care about Afghanistan anyway, so it won’t hurt the president in the long run.

A poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs released this week found that 70 percent of Americans — including 77 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of Republicans — support the withdrawal of U.S. troops by Sept. 11. However, the poll was conducted July 7-26, well before the Taliban began capturing provincial capitals at breakneck pace.

And the White House knows it has staunch defenders. “No one seems to have any specifics when it comes to what Biden should have ‘handled’ about the withdrawal that would have plausibly made things better,” tweeted ALEXANDER MCCOY, a leading activist who pushed Biden to withdraw from Afghanistan.

Ultimately, it comes down to how Biden feels. And so far, he stands by his call.

The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — HOUSE DEMS WANT END TO VENEZUELA SANCTIONS: Nearly 20 House Democrats sent a letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN on Thursday demanding the U.S. remove sanctions on Venezuelan President NICOLAS MADURO’s regime ahead of Norway-brokered talks with the opposition.

“U.S. economic sanctions enacted since 2017 have inflicted greater hardship and suffering on ordinary Venezuelans,” wrote the House Democrats, led by Reps. RAUL GRIJALVA of Arizona and JESUS GARCIA of Illinois. Therefore, the Biden administration should “lift all U.S. financial and sectoral sanctions that exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. Most urgently, the U.S. should reverse the Trump ban that prohibits Venezuela from exchanging crude oil for diesel, thereby hindering food production and distribution.”

That’s not all. The 19 lawmakers want the U.S. to help the Norwegian-led diplomatic efforts and “[e]ngage in direct dialogue with the Maduro government” along with other Venezuelan politicians.

But don’t expect Biden to take the Democrats’ advice, as the U.S. has repeatedly rebuffed pleas to remove the sanctions on Venezuela. Still, the lawmakers insist Biden should heed their words.

“Our policy towards Venezuela promotes suffering, not democracy. Venezuelans already face the effects of a political crisis, an economic collapse, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Crippling sanctions imposed by the Trump administration make a difficult situation even worse,” Garcia told NatSec Daily.

“We can and must move from a sanctions-driven approach to one of constructive dialogue that brings in opposition actors who want a democratic, political solution, rather than a strategy of overthrow, violence, and collective punishment,” Grijalva told us.

SANCTIONS-PALOOZA: The Treasury Department announced two large tranches of sanctions Friday, one targeting Cuban officials and the second placed on Iran’s elite Quds Force members.

“This is the third round of sanctions since protests started in Cuba on July 11, 2021, as Treasury continues to aggressively target persons in connection with actions to suppress peaceful, pro-democratic protests in Cuba,” the department said in a statement on the Cuba measures.

As for Iran: “The IRGC-QF is using revenues from its Iranian petroleum sales to fund its malign activities at the expense of the Iranian people,” said Director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control ANDREA M. GACKI in a statement. “These sales rely on key foreign intermediaries to obscure the IRGC-QF’s involvement, and Treasury will continue to disrupt and expose anyone supporting these efforts.”

“WE ARE POWERLESS TO PROTECT THEM”: Here’s an eye-popping, since-deleted tweet from MOLLY MONTGOMERY, a top State Department official for European affairs. “Woke up with a heavy heart, thinking about all the Afghan women and girls I worked with during my time in Kabul. They were the beneficiaries of many of the gains we made, and now they stand to lose everything. We empowered them to lead, and now we are powerless to protect them,” she wrote this morning.

That reads to many who pointed it out to NatSec Daily as an explicit, public rebuke of the administration’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, even if Montgomery may have not intended it that way. Still, the sentiment relayed in the tweet is one we can confirm many in the administration feel but don’t usually say out loud.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we’re going to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene likes to unwind with a drink. Today, we have former Director of National Intelligence JAMES CLAPPER. He tells us he doesn’t go to bars much anymore, “but if I did, I’d hang out at Ciao, which is a superb Italian restaurant near where I live in Centreville, Virginia. They make great Hendrick's Gin martinis.”

When asked by NatSec Daily why he doesn’t go back for some more booze, he said he’s recovering from hip surgery, “so it’ll be a while before I go bar-hopping.” Well, here’s to the day when we see the former American intelligence chief back out there.

Want to share your favorite happy hour spot or late night boozer? Drop us a line at [email protected] and [email protected]. (For full transparency, Alex enjoys Moscow mules and can usually be found at Wonderland Ballroom or American Ice Company; Quint will be swilling dirty martinis or Negronis at Beuchert’s Saloon.)

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND. Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO’s newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Please share this subscription link with a colleague or friend. Follow the whole team here: @alexbward, @QuintForgey, @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JonnyCustodio.

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Blowing Up

MERKEL TO MOSCOW: German Chancellor ANGELA MERKEL’s spokesperson says the outgoing leader will travel to Moscow next Friday to meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN — followed by a visit to Ukraine next Sunday, per Reuters.

Among the topics almost certain to be discussed at Merkel’s Putin summit is Nord Stream 2, the 764-mile-long pipeline under the Baltic Sea that’s frustrating Ukraine and still causing headaches for Biden at home in the United States.

The president’s acceptance of the project — which would transport inexpensive natural gas from Russia to Germany — has provoked bipartisan criticism from Congress and is the reason Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) is stalling so many of Biden’s State Department nominees, as NatSec Daily detailed this week.

Keystrokes

MORE RUSSIAN MEDDLING IN 2022: U.S. intelligence community assessments suggest Russia is ramping up its efforts to meddle in American elections ahead of the 2022 midterms, with Biden receiving regular reports on the attempted interference campaign, according to CNN’s KATIE BO WILLIAMS, NATASHA BERTRAND and ALEX MARQUARDT.

“One of the people familiar with the matter confirmed that there have been recent intelligence reports about what the Russians are up to, particularly their efforts to sow disinformation on social media and weaponize US media outlets for propaganda purposes. There are some indications that Moscow is now attempting to capitalize on the debate raging inside the US over vaccines and masking, other sources told CNN.”

These latest Russian efforts “are evolving and are more sophisticated” than the tactics Moscow employed in 2016, CNN also reports. On a trip to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence last month, Biden memorably accused Russia of “already” trying to target the 2022 elections with misinformation, saying such actions were “a pure violation of our sovereignty.”

The Complex

STRATCOM BOSS CONCERNED ABOUT BEIJING’S NUKES: Commander of the U.S. Strategic Command Adm. CHARLES RICHARD is sounding the alarm about China’s investments in its atomic arsenal, warning that Beijing is “building the capability to execute any plausible nuclear employment strategy — the last brick in the wall of a military capable of coercion.”

Per Breaking Defense’s AARON MEHTA, Richard told attendees at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium on Thursday that the “explosive growth and modernization of [China’s] nuclear and conventional forces can only be what I describe as breathtaking. Frankly, that word, breathtaking, may not be enough.”

In his remarks on nuclear threats, Richard also expressed worries about the warming ties between Beijing and Moscow, a diplomatic relationship that has caught the attention of Biden administration officials in recent months. “I think it’s a mistake to think about them in isolation of each other,” he said.

NEW CIA CHINA CENTER: The CIA is considering establishing an independent “Mission Center for China,” elevating the agency’s Beijing portfolio beyond its existing “Mission Center for East Asia and Pacific,” per Bloomberg News’ PETER MARTIN and NICK WADHAMS.

“In the intelligence bureaucracy, a separate China center would make it easier to secure headcount, funding and high-level attention for China-related activities, according to three current and former officials who spoke about the internal deliberations on condition of anonymity.”

A new China-focused mission center would come after the CIA, under former President DONALD TRUMP in 2017, set up a “Korea Mission Center” to better counter the threat posed by Pyongyang.

On the Hill

HOUSE DEMS WANT EGYPT MILITARY AID HELD: It’s a busy mail day for Blinken, who’s received yet another letter from House Democrats — this time urging him to cut off some funding for Egypt’s armed forces.

“Given worsening conditions and trendlines, we ask that, in line with U.S. law and Congressional intent, you withhold a significant portion of the assistance,” wrote the eight lawmakers, led by Reps. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.) and ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.), the House Intelligence chair. In the letter obtained by NatSec Daily, they said they “see no evidence” of ABDEL FATTAH AL-SISI’s regime improving human rights conditions any time soon.

The Biden administration has a big decision coming up: whether or not to cut off $300 million in military aid over Cairo’s abuses. Withholding the money would damage relations between two longtime partners, but also show Biden’s commitment to a more human rights-focused foreign policy. NatSec Daily’s contacts say Blinken’s decision is imminent.

Broadsides

U.K. DEFENSE CHIEF CHIDES U.S. OVER AFGHANISTAN: British Defense Secretary BEN WALLACE is taking an unusually sharp shot across the pond, lambasting Biden’s withdrawal decision in a new interview and arguing it could result in an al-Qaida resurgence, per Sky News’ ALAN MCGUINNESS.

“I’m absolutely worried that failed states are breeding grounds for those types of people,” Wallace told Sky News. “Of course I am worried[;] it is why I said I felt this was not the right time or decision to make because, of course, [al-Qaida] will probably come back, certainly would like that type of breeding ground.”

He added: “That is what we see, failed states around the world lead to instability, lead to a security threat to us and our interests.”

Wallace’s remarks come as the United Kingdom plans a deployment of military personnel to Afghanistan to help evacuate British nationals and Afghan interpreters from the country, per Reuters. Also, the British Embassy in Kabul will be relocated to a safer environment with a trimmed down staff.

FORMER U.S. COMMANDER IN AFGHANISTAN WANTS PULLOUT REVERSED: Retired Marine Gen. JOHN ALLEN, who led U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013, begs Biden to quit the withdrawal and change course.

There may “still be time for Biden to rescue both Afghan lives and American interests from this unfolding humanitarian catastrophe. We are fast approaching the true tipping point of this conflict, a moment that will change the entire paradigm of the U.S. departure from if we’ll need to re-intervene, to when and how,” he wrote for Defense One today. “[S]hould the Taliban topple the existing government, nothing will stop Afghanistan from becoming the very terrorist platform and source of instability for which we fought 20 years to prevent.”

Transitions

MEDIA MOVES: ZACH BASU, a breaking news editor at Axios, is joining the Axios politics team full-time as a national security reporter.

SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS SHIFTS TO 2022: The ninth Summit of the Americas — initially scheduled for this year — is now set to take place in early summer 2022, per a White House news release. The upcoming installment of the summit — held roughly once every three years — “will be the first time the United States has hosted … since the inaugural meeting in Miami, in 1994.”

The summit is usually attended by leaders from North, South and Central American countries, as well as from the Caribbean. But Trump skipped the 2018 meeting in Peru “to oversee the American response” to a suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria, sending former Vice President MIKE PENCE in his place.

What to Read

The Economist: “Hiding books, buying burqas: Kandahar prepares for Taliban rule”

The Financial Times: “Joe Biden’s credibility has been shredded in Afghanistan”

Foreign Affairs: “Bin Laden’s Catastrophic Success”

Monday Today

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2:30 p.m.: “A New Agenda for the Hemisphere: Perspectives from Ambassadors”

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at [email protected] or [email protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

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