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We rated every race in play in 2022.
This is who we think will win.
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Hi there. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues at POLITICO, I predict elections.
Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Biden’s agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. Democrats’ extremely narrow majorities in Congress are highly vulnerable, and the traditional midterm penalty suffered by the party in power has Republicans well positioned to wrest back control of the House, and quite possibly the Senate, in the fall.
In the House, Democrats’ five-seat majority is highly endangered. In the Senate, their control of the 50-50 chamber hinges on Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote. But a Senate map that favors Democrats gives them a better chance of overcoming the expected national headwinds.
I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eye on.
Republicans face a crowded primary for the right to face Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, who narrowly won a special election in 2020.
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election.
Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race in her fight for a second term.
The open-seat race in Pennsylvania is Democrats' best pickup chance in their fight to retain their narrow Senate majority.
GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term — making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020.
Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state.
The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points.
Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. But 2022 will be a steeper climb.
House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment.
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind.
Former President Donald Trump was trawling for challengers to GOP Rep. Don Bacon earlier this year. But Bacon is probably the only Republican who could hold this blue-trending, Omaha-based seat.
GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb.
Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats — except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her.
Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election.
Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall.
The race to replace term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey is among the most competitive on the map.
Gov. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year.
The race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf should be one of the closest in the country.
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states.
GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024.
Despite a difficult environment, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's poll numbers have been more durable than other Democrats'.
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A lot of outlets do election ratings. Here’s how POLITICO’s will be different:
We’re going to demystify the midterms — taking you inside the races to explore the macro- and micro-trends driving the campaign. Does the incumbent in the race consistently overperform their party’s baseline in the district? Is the challenger struggling to raise money? Is the nation’s political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one party’s column to the other? Does one of the candidates have a fully-booked 747 worth of baggage?
The road to November will have many twists and turns, but POLITICO’s Election Forecast will be there to chart the course — and tell you why.
Why trust us?
We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible.
Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles that guide every prediction he makes.
We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings.
We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality.
Redistricting will change everything. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers.
We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. You deserve to hear our thinking.
Questions or Comments
Contact Steve at [email protected]. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too.
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Credits
Head forecaster: Steven Shepard
Editing: Scott Bland
Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal
Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak
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