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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$2,118,054 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧37.0-41.7%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧38.5-44.3%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸35.0-37.0%$1,086,134$0

39.8%

0.7%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧37.9-39.1%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧37.9-39.1%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸39.0-40.0%$1,086,134$0

38.5%

1.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.7-4.5%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.7-4.5%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$1,086,134$0

4.1%

-0.6%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-4.3%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.2%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$1,086,134$0

3.8%

0.1%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-3.1%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.1%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,086,134$0

2.0%

+0.0%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,086,134$0

1.6%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.9%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,086,134$0

1.2%

0.3%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.5%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$305,481$52,693

1.1%

0.1%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-2.0%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-1.0%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,086,134$0

1.0%

0.4%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,086,134$0

0.8%

0.3%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,086,134$0

0.7%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,086,134$0

0.6%

-0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-1.1%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$305,481$52,693

0.6%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.9%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,086,134$0

0.6%

+0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-50.0%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,086,134$0

0.2%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.3%$726,440$166,910
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$305,481$52,693
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,086,134$0

0.1%

-1.1%

3.3%



Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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