Loss for Romania’s Social Democrats Is a Win for Europe’s Left

The decline of Romania’s Social Democratic Party is not a tragedy for the European left. It is an opportunity.

Romania’s presidential election last month served as an important litmus test of popular support for the main parties but did not alter the domestic power structures of the country.

Victory for incumbent President Klaus Iohannis of the centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL) over a former prime minister from the once all-mighty Social Democratic Party (PSD) was a symptom — not a cause — of the decay of the PSD.

In contrast, the toppling of the PSD government by a vote of no confidence in October sent reverberations through politics — both at home and across the EU.

In addition to forcing the Romanian political left from executive power, it deprived the European Socialists and Democrats (S&D) — the European Parliament’s second-largest political family, of which PSD is a member — of important positions in European institutions.

Instead of mourning the losses, the S&D should realise that the tough times Romania’s Social Democrats are facing are an opportunity for the European left.

The S&D’s commitment to European values and its criticism of democratic backsliding in Poland and Hungary have been heavily undermined by PSD’s abysmal track record on the rule of law, corruption and democracy.

Leaving this burden behind could allow a new, more coordinated approach among the great European party families on how to treat their enfants terribles. And in the long term, the S&D can be the real winner of such an approach.

Romania’s acting President Klaus Iohannis waves to members of the National Liberal Party during a rally held in the city of Ploiesti, 60 kilometres north of Bucharest in November 2019. Photo: EPA-EFE/ROBERT GHEMENT

Painful losses at home…

Romania’s presidential election in November focused international attention on the country’s domestic politics.

The second round of voting on November 24 brought an end to the uphill struggle of former Prime Minister Viorica Dancila as Iohannis romped to an expected — but nonetheless stunning — victory.

In the end, Iohannis won more than 6.4 million votes, or almost 66 per cent of ballots cast, while Dancila had to settle for 34 per cent.

However, the presidential battle was only the latest — and by no means most important — chapter of a story of PSD decline that has significant implications at the level of EU party politics as well.

The presidential showdown was preceded by a landslide change of mood against PSD triggered by the entanglement of the party’s elite in political corruption and by the PSD government’s repeated legislative efforts to grant immunity to politicians — including former party chairman Liviu Dragnea — from criminal prosecution.

The loss of popular support was demonstrated by repeated mass protests on the streets of Bucharest and resulted in the defection of PSD’s coalition partner, ALDE, leading to a parliamentary vote of non-confidence on October 10 and to the ousting of Dancila’s government from power on November 4.

… and in the EU

PSD’s loss of ground and the fall of Dancila’s government have made waves in EU politics.

PSD is by far the largest member of the European Socialists from the eastern part of the EU, and has been — at least until November — the backbone of one of the two socialist-led coalition governments in the east (the other one is the Smer party in Slovakia).

The European Parliament elections in May were hardly a success story for the Romanian socialists. PSD won nine MEP seats, compared with 16 in 2014.

Nonetheless, the real headaches were caused by the collapse of Dancila’s government, which extended the time it took for European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen to get her team in shape, added a one-month delay to the Commission roadmap for entering office and ultimately deprived the S&D of both a commissioner post and Romania’s vote on the EU Council.

PSD’s original commissioner-candidate, Rovana Plumb, was rejected by the European Parliament’s Committee on Legal Affairs on September 26, practically in the screening phase, as the body found Plumb unsuited to the post of commissioner due to her alleged conflicts of interest and irregularities in her property declaration.

Throughout October, the Dancila cabinet was unable to nominate a commissioner-candidate acceptable to President-elect von der Leyen.

That meant that the new centre-right PNL government of Ludovic Orban, which entered office on November 4, could exploit the opportunity to nominate a Romanian commissioner-candidate, but this time in the colours of the European People’s Party (EPP).

Losing the transportation portfolio originally assigned to Plumb and a prospective commissioner post rang alarm bells among European socialists who feared a shift in the delicate balance of power with the conservative EPP.

In fact, a political miscalculation by Italian far-right leader Matteo Salvini plus a coalition contract between Italy’s ruling 5-Star Movement and the country’s centre-left Democratic Party, an S&D member, unexpectedly handed an extra commissioner position to the European Socialists in September.

However, allegations that von der Leyen put socialist commissioners at a disadvantage when distributing Commission competencies have made the S&D suspicious of the true intentions of the president-elect.

For example, she put Dutch Social Democrat Frans Timmermans in charge of the Green New Deal but first granted the economic and financial competencies necessary to make it work to commissioners from other political families.

Such suspicions were compounded by the rejection of PSD commissioner-nominee Dan Nica by von der Leyen after the Plumb fiasco.

USR (Save Romania Union) party leader Dan Barna delivers a speech during a rally held in Bucharest on November 7, 2019. Barna ran unsuccessfully for president on behalf of the USR-PLUS alliance. The screen behind Barna read: ‘DO YOU WANT A SECOND ROUND WITHOUT PSD?’, referring to the leftist Social Democratic Party. PhotoL EPA-EFE/ROBERT GHEMENT

Leaving the burden behind…

PSD’s ousting from government not only threw the party into opposition but abruptly deprived Romanian social democrats and their European counterparts in the S&D from holding a commissioner post. That is a loss that will endure for five years.

However, beyond the short-term perspective of power politics in EU institutions, the European left should realise that PSD’s decline is as much of an opportunity as a tragedy.

Over the years, PSD had become synonymous with organised political corruption and attacks on judicial independence and the rule of law — and for good reason.

Over the years, PSD had become synonymous with organised political corruption and attacks on judicial independence and the rule of law — and for good reason.

Aside from emblematic cases such as the conviction of former PSD leader Dragnea, Romania’s 2012 constitutional crisis and emergency ordinances in 2017 decriminalising political corruption serve as perfect symbols of the PSD leadership’s attitude towards the rule of law.

In recent years, the credibility of S&D criticism of mounting authoritarianism in Hungary and Poland has suffered under the burden of PSD’s rule-of-law record.

Now that PSD has joined the ranks of the opposition and will probably face further losses in 2020 municipal and parliamentary elections, the European Socialists can leave this burden behind and pursue a more credible approach in confronting autocratisation and rule-of-law violations in EU member states.

The S&D would be well advised to pursue a counter-cyclical, values-based approach with regard to its own enfants terribles: PSD in Romania and Smer in Slovakia.

Until now, the S&D has tolerated the questionable democratic credentials of member parties when they are in power while openly benefiting from their positions of power at the level of EU institutions.

Instead, it should draw clear red lines and demonstrate zero tolerance when it comes to autocratic moves, while paying more attention to parties once they are in opposition and investing heavily in their commitments to European values by means of party diplomacy.

Good international networks and connections within the European party family can be valuable assets for politicians competing for party leadership — and granting or denying these assets is within the S&D’s power.

Given that PSD is already in opposition and that Slovakia’s Smer party is likely to fare badly in a general election set for February 29, the S&D has nothing to lose by making a values-oriented policy change. In doing so, it can make the best of its current situation.

The suspension of Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party from the EPP; the election of former European Council President Donald Tusk as the EPP’s new president; and mass protests in Prague against the allegedly illiberal policies of the nominally liberal government of Prime Minister Andrej Babis — the moment appears uniquely favourable to reassess the role that European party politics can play in the protection of European values.

The moment appears uniquely favourable to reassess the role that European party politics can play in the protection of European values.

The S&D is in the lucky position that its enfants terribles appear to be losing power without any serious conflict within the European party family.

Meanwhile, the S&D can push the EPP and Renew Europe to abandon their own bad boys, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, while they are at the zenith of their power.

Daniel Hegedus is Fellow for Central Europe of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.