New survey finds ‘large divide’ between Māori and Pākehā voters over co-governance and treaty

A new study shows the extent to which New Zealanders’ party voting choices are divided on co-governance, Treaty of Waitangi and racial harmony.

It is believed to be the first study to quantify the extent of this and its likely influence on party vote choices.

The Horizon Research study released today exposes a large divide between Māori and European/Pākehā voters on co-governance and honouring the treaty.

28% of Pākehā surveyed say stopping co-governance policies is an important influence on their party vote choice, compared with 17% of Māori.

But the most marked divide is in regard to the treaty.

46% of Māori consider honouring the treaty an important influence, as opposed to 20% of Pākehā.

The study finds that policies to stop co-governance are having an influence on large numbers of those intending to vote for Act and National - and among males (31%) more than females (22%).

Ending co-governance has “huge importance” for 62% of those intending to vote for Act. Just 2% say honouring the treaty is a vote-driver and 3% say continuing with co-governance is.

It is also an important influence for 40% of those planning to vote for National and 45% for New Zealand First.

Stopping co-governance policies is influencing 35% of voters in households earning more than $150,000 a year, compared with 26% overall and 21% in middle income households ($50,000 to $150,000).

At 31% racial harmony has more influence than stopping co-governance (26%) or continuing it (15%).

The study finds that racial harmony is important to 34% of Māori and 30% of Pākehā.

These issues are being factored into party-vote choices by more than a million eligible voters.

The online survey of 1,071 NZ adults aged 18+ was conducted between 19 to 24 July 2023 and has a margin of error of +/- 3%.