Measuring Dissent in Electoral Authoritarian Societies: Lessons From Azerbaijan’s 2008 Presidential Election and 2009 Referendum
Abstract
Although authoritarian regimes assert control over electoral processes, election returns can yield valuable information about dissent. Using election data from two votes in Azerbaijan, this article assesses hypotheses about the sources of antiregime results. The analysis indicates that dissenting votes may be produced by a combination of elite interference at the national and local levels, and through the expression of citizen preferences under the conditions of a limited choice set. Although results must be interpreted with care, authoritarian elections may provide useful insights into hidden elite conflict and/or citizen grievances. The approach to assessing dissenting votes described in the article not only yields information about Azerbaijan’s internal politics but also could be applied to elections in other electoral authoritarian states.
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Article first published online: June 3, 2011
Issue published: November 2011
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