UMR Research was engaged by the Electoral Commission in 2006 to prepare an analysis of UMR omnibus data covering the periods August 2002 - December 2004 and October 2005 - October 2006 with a focus on Māori non-voters.  Some NZES 2002 data was also considered. 

The reports were commissioned as part of a research suite examining different aspects of Māori electoral participation.  Key findings are presented below, with the UMR reports available for download to the right.   When referencing these reports please note UMR as the author (responsible for their contents), the Electoral Commission as publisher, and the reports' availability on this website.

Key findings

Main report (2002-04 data)

• Our [UMR] analysis indicates clear differences between Māori non-voters and Māori voters. For the most part, these are similar to the differences between non-Māori non-voters and non-Māori voters.
• The evidence suggests that lower participation rates amongst Māori mostly reflect the demographic characteristics of the Māori population, rather than factors intrinsic to Māori. Māori are known to be younger and less well-off on average than non-Māori, and these are factors strongly associated with non-voting. 51% of Māori non-voters were aged 20-30 years. Multivariate analysis did not identify being Māori as a statistically significant predictor of propensity to vote once age, household income and gender were taken into account. This finding does however need to be treated with caution, as this analysis was conducted retrospectively on a survey that was not specifically dedicated to political questions. At the same time, the number of respondents included was very large (n=20,868). The clearest demographic difference between Māori non-voters and non-Māori non-voters when compared with voters is that Māori non-voters are comparatively likely (compared with Māori voters) to live in provincial areas, whereas non-Māori non-voters are relatively likely (compared with non-Māori voters) to live in Auckland.
• Māori non-voters are less likely to be enrolled on the Māori roll, a finding that may imply that they are less likely to be involved in Māori society and politics. It may be that they are disengaged from Maori politics just as much as they are disengaged from national and regional politics. The data also suggests that Māori non-voters do not regard the opportunity to vote for Māori candidates as sufficiently motivating to get them to vote.
• Māori non-voters do not appear to be especially dissatisfied with national and regional politics, but are simply disengaged from it. They are less likely, for example, to have strong opinions of the party leaders, but no more likely to have negative opinions of them.
• While they are disengaged from national politics, the evidence suggests that Māori non-voters are not disengaged from New Zealand society as a whole. They are as likely as Māori voters to have opinions on prospects for the economy, their personal standard of living, and for unemployment, amongst other factors.

Supplementary report (2005-06 data)

• Turnout at the 2005 election was comfortably higher than it had been in 2002, and this is reflected in our data. 91% of respondents claimed to have voted in 2005, compared with 88% for the 2002 data.  Declared voting amongst the Māori in our sample rose from 85% to 88%.
• Despite this increase, there was generally little change in the overall trends noted in the previous report. Individual figures moved, but the relative differences between Māori nonvoters, Māori voters, non-Māori non-voters and non-Māori voters remained fairly constant.  An example of this can be seen in Don Brash’s favourability rating. The proportion of Māori non-voters who had an opinion of the (now former) National party leader rose from 70% to 82% (total favourable plus total unfavourable), but this was mirrored by shifts amongst Māori voters (89% to 95% having an opinion) and non-Māori non-voters (78% to 81% having an opinion).
• One change that did occur was that, while non-voting amongst Maori on the Maori roll remained basically steady (moving from 12% to 11%), non-voting amongst Māori on the general roll fell from 16% not voting in 2002 to 10% not voting in 2005.
• The importance of age has softened.  The proportion of Māori non-voters who were aged under 30 years has fallen from 51% to 35%, while the proportion aged 45 or over has increased from 12% to 23%.  Similar shift also occurred amongst non-Māori non-voters.
• The last [main] report did not include favourability ratings for Tariana Turia, as the Māori party was formed only towards the end of the period for which data was collected (registered in July 2004). The Māori party co-leader’s favourability rating follows the general pattern for other leaders of smaller parties, with Māori non-voters and non-Māori non-voters being less likely to have an opinion of Tariana Turia (72% and 52% with an opinion respectively) than either Māori voters or non-Māori voters (87% and 79% with an opinion respectively).