Sabato's Crystal Ball

2014 Governor

To read recent stories regarding 2014 gubernatorial races, click here.

Updated July 16, 2014

Current outlook: Democrats net 1-2 governorships


Note: Bolded candidate names indicate likely frontrunner for a nomination if there is one.

Chart 2: Crystal Ball 2014 gubernatorial ratings

State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AK Sean Parnell
(Running)		 - Ex-state GOP chair Russ Millette? - Ex-Exec. Director of Alaska Permanent Fund Byron Mallott - 2010 candidate Bill Walker (Ind) Safe R
AL Robert Bentley
(Running)		 - Ex-Rep. Parker Griffith Safe R
AR Mike Beebe
(Term-Limited)		 - Ex-Rep. Mike Ross - Ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson Toss-up
AZ Jan Brewer
(Term-Limited)		 - Sec. of State Ken Bennett
- Treasurer Doug Ducey
- Mesa Mayor Scott Smith
- 2010 AG candidate Andrew Thomas
- Ex-GoDaddy executive Christine Jones
- Ex-CA Rep. Frank Riggs
- Former medical center CEO John Molina		 - Ex-State Board of Regents Pres. Fred DuVal - Radio station owner Rick Murphy (Ind) Leans R
CA Jerry Brown
(Running)		 - Former Treasury Dept. official Neel Kashkari Safe D
CO John Hickenlooper
(Running)		 - Ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez Leans D
CT Dan Malloy
(Running)		 - 2010 nominee Tom Foley
- State Sen. Min. Leader John McKinney		 - Ex-state Rep. Jonathan Pelto (Ind)
- Ex-West Hartford councilman Joe Visconti (Ind)		 Toss-up
FL Rick Scott
(Running)		 - Conservative activist Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder
- Physician Joe Smith		 - Ex-Gov. Charlie Crist?
- Ex-state Sen. Min. Leader Nan Rich		 - Radio host Adrian Wyllie (Lib) Toss-up
GA Nathan Deal
(Running)		 - State Sen. Jason Carter - Former tech CEO Andrew Hunt (Lib) Leans R
HI Neil Abercrombie
(Running)		 - State Sen. David Ige - 2010 nominee Duke Aiona - Ex-Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (Ind) Leans D
IA Terry Branstad
(Running)		 - State Sen. Jack Hatch Likely R
ID Butch Otter
(Running)		 - Boise School Board chair A.J. Balukoff Safe R
IL Pat Quinn
(Running)		 - Venture capitalist Bruce Rauner Toss-up
KS Sam Brownback
(Running)		 - Businesswoman Jennifer Winn - House Minority Leader Paul Davis Leans R
MA Deval Patrick
(Retiring)		 - AG Martha Coakley
- Treasurer Steve Grossman
- Ex-federal health care official Donald Berwick		 - 2010 nominee Charlie Baker - Venture capital investor Jeff McCormick (Ind)
- Former business executive Evan Falchuk (Ind)		 Leans D
MD Martin O’Malley
(Term-Limited)		 - LG Anthony Brown - Ex-Ehrlich Cabinet secretary Larry Hogan Likely D
ME Paul LePage
(Running)		 - Rep. Mike Michaud - 2010 candidate Eliot Cutler (Ind) Leans D
MI Rick Snyder
(Running)		 - Ex-Rep. Mark Schauer Leans R
MN Mark Dayton
(Running)		 - Hennepin Co. Commissioner Jeff Johnson
- State Rep. Kurt Zellers
- Businessman Scott Honour
- Ex-state Rep. Marty Seifert		 Likely D
NE Dave Heineman
(Term-Limited)		 - 2006 Sen nominee Pete Ricketts - Ex-Center for Rural Affairs Executive Director Chuck Hassebrook - Marijuana-legalization activist Mark Elworth (Lib) Likely R
NH Maggie Hassan
(Running)		 - Businessman Walter Havenstein
- Consultant Andrew Hemingway		 Likely D
NM Susana Martinez
(Running)		 - AG Gary King Likely R
NV Brian Sandoval
(Running)		 - Former state economic development commissioner Robert Goodman Safe R
NY Andrew Cuomo
(Running)		 - Westchester County Exec. Rob Astorino - 2010 gubernatorial nominee Howie Hawkins (Gre) Safe D
OH John Kasich
(Running)		 - Cuyahoga Co. Executive Ed FitzGerald - Activist Anita Rios (Green) Likely R
OK Mary Fallin
(Running)		 - State Rep. Joe Dorman Safe R
OR John Kitzhaber
(Running)		 - State Rep. Dennis Richardson Safe D
PA Tom Corbett
(Running)		 - Ex-Revenue Sec. Tom Wolf Leans D
RI Lincoln Chafee
(Retiring)		 - Treasurer Gina Raimondo
- Providence Mayor Angel Taveras
- Former Obama administration official Clay Pell		 - Cranston Mayor Allan Fung
- 2012 Moderate Party nominee Ken Block		 Likely D
SC Nikki Haley
(Running)		 - 2010 nominee Vincent Sheheen - Ex-state Rep. Tom Ervin (Ind)
- Businessman Steve French (Lib)
- Pastor Morgan Bruce Reeves (Ind)		 Leans R
SD Dennis Daugaard
(Running)		 - Ex-state Rep. Lora Hubbel - State Rep. Susan Wismer
- Businessman Joe Lowe		 Safe R
TN Bill Haslam
(Running)		 - 2010 candidate Donald Ray McFolin
- 2010 candidate Basil Marceaux
- Internet celebrity Mark Brown		 - 2012 Senate nominee Mark Clayton
- Ex-Sullivan County Commissioner John McKamey
- Businessman Ron Noonan		 Safe R
TX Rick Perry
(Retiring)		 - AG Greg Abbott - State Sen. Wendy Davis Safe R
VT Peter Shumlin
(Running)		 Safe D
WI Scott Walker
(Running)		 - Financial planner Scott Paterick? - Madison School Board member Mary Burke
- State Rep. Brett Hulsey		 Likely R
WY Matt Mead
(Running)		 - Sup’dent of Public Instruction Cindy Hill
- Retired surgeon Taylor Haynes		 - Ex-state Democratic Party Chairman Pete Gosar Safe R