Wednesday, September 10, 2008

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For the first time all year, John McCain has topped Barack Obama in a New Mexico poll. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 47%.

Although the two-point lead is not statistically significant in a poll with a four-point margin of sampling error, it’s quite an improvement for McCain from August. At that time, Obama was ahead 48% to 44% (with leaners included). Since then, the Republican has gained ground among Hispanic voters and those not affiliated with either major party.

McCain leads among voters over 40 while Obama has the edge among younger voters. McCain leads among men while Obama leads among women (demographic crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Nationally, among all voters, Obama and McCain are essentially even in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Currently, Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of New Mexico voters, down a point from a month ago. That figure includes 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama.

McCain gets a favorable rating from 52%. That’s down from 56% a month ago, but the number with a Very Favorable opinion of him is up eight percentage points to 30%.

As for the vice presidential candidates, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden is viewed favorably by 52% and Sarah Palin by 51%. As in every other state polled since the conventions ended, Palin earns Very Favorable reviews from more voters than any other candidate. In New Mexico, 41% offer such an upbeat assessment of the Alaska governor. Twenty-six percent (26%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Biden.

Forty-eight percent (48%) say McCain made the right choice for his running mate and 37% say the same about Obama’s selection. Among Republicans, 89% say Palin was the right choice for McCain. Among Democrats, 61% say Biden was the right choice.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of New Mexico voters view Biden as politically liberal while 82% say Palin is politically conservative.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning New Mexico’s Five Electoral College votes this fall. President Bush won the state by 6,000 votes out of nearly 750,000 in Election 2004. With release of this poll, New Mexico moves from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Rasmussen Reports has released six swing state polls on the Presidential race this week for Montana, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Additional state poll results will be released at RasmussenReports.com each Monday at 6:00 p.m. Eastern and Tuesday-Friday at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Premium Members can get an advance look at the results.

Democrat Tom Udall leads Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race.

While President Bush carried New Mexico four years ago, just 36% now say he is doing a good or excellent job. Fifty-three percent (53%) say he is doing a poor job.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.