TEHRAN - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can expect considerable opposition
in the newly elected parliament set to be installed on May 27
that has a considerable number of representatives from rival hard-liners, conservatives,
and a stronger reformist minority.
Hard-liners and conservatives critical of Ahmadinejad's economic and foreign
policies are likely to unite with the reformists to exercise more control on
the government, analysts in Tehran say.
The hard-liners' and conservatives' camp, referred to as "principlists,"
broke into two main coalitions in the March 14 parliamentary elections. The
schism occurred just days before the vote when the pro-government group refused
to include some of the candidates proposed by other hard-liner and conservative
groups in the coalition's joint list for the 30 seats of Tehran.
The pro-Ahmadinejad coalition, known as the United Front of Principlists,
which includes a nucleus of hard-core Ahmadinejad men, claims to have won the
highest number of 220 seats, decided in the first round of elections nationwide.
Sixty-eight more seats where none of the candidates have been able to acquire
a minimum of 25 percent of the total votes will be decided later in run-off
elections.
Fewer seats have gone to the rival Comprehensive Coalition of Principlists,
which consists of supporters of a triad of politicians critical of Ahmadinejad's
economic and foreign policy.
The three politicians are former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, Tehran mayor
Mohammad Qalibaf, and Mohsen Rezaie, who is now secretary of the country's
influential Expediency Council.
For the speakership of the next parliament, the Comprehensive Coalition of
Principlists is expected to support Ali Larijani against incumbent speaker
Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel, who is favored by the pro-Ahmadinejad coalition, a
spokesman for the coalition told reporters.
Larijani had originally been on the joint list of principlist candidates from
Tehran but changed his constituency to Qom, Iran's religious capital, where
he won a landslide victory against his pro-government rival.
"Reformists will most likely support Larijani's speakership. This will
make him a mighty rival for Haddad Adel, who is criticized for having made
the current parliament a tool in the hands of the government, helping grant
it whatever it wishes with least resistance even when everybody knows he is
going wrong," a reformist politician, who did not want to be quoted by
name, told IPS.
"They are also likely to help the hard-liner and conservative rivals
of the government group to prevent Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the vice speaker,
from holding the same position again. Bahonar and Haddad Adel jointly blocked
every effort in the current parliament to control the government," he
said.
In the parliamentary polls reformists managed to
nearly double their votes, compared to the elections
for the seventh parliament four years ago, in spite
of losing the majority of their high-profile and even
second and third class candidates to pre-election
vetting by the country's election watchdog, the
Council of Guardians.
Several high-profile reformist candidates, including former vice president
Mohammad Reza Aref, withdrew from elections in protest against mass disqualification
of reformist candidates.
In Tehran where reformists seemed to enjoy popularity, they hoped to take
the largest share of the seats. But when the results were announced their hopes
were shattered 19 seats went to pro-government hard-liners and conservatives
in the first round.
The remaining 11 will be decided in late April or early May in run-off elections,
because candidates for these seats have not been able to secure the required
minimum of 25 percent of the total votes.
The 11 candidates, all from the pro-government coalition, will have to compete
with the next 11 candidates 10 reformists and one from the rival principlist
camp according to Iran's election laws.
Reformist leaders former president Mohammad Khatami
and former parliament speaker and leader of the Etemad
Melli Party Mahdi Karrubi have officially asked
the Council of Guardians for a recount of the votes
in Tehran.
"Reformists suffered the loss of the majority of their candidates nationwide
to the pre-election vetting. In many constituencies they had no candidates
at all to compete with hard-liners and conservatives, but they still managed
to win a respectable number of seats in places where they still had candidates,"
a reformist journalist in Tehran requesting anonymity told IPS.
"In Tehran reformists managed to gather all their forces and had candidates
to compete with hard-liners and conservatives for all the 30 seats of the capital.
That voters in Tehran give the first 30 ranks to hard-liners and conservatives
and choose reformists over hard-liners and conservatives in provinces where
voters are more conservatively minded can be considered as very suspicious,"
the journalist said.
The Comprehensive Coalition of Principlists has also officially protested
election violations by the pro-government coalition such as illegal campaigning
on election day and infractions in polling stations.
One of the candidates of the Comprehensive Coalition of Principlists, Amir
Reza Khadem, has also asked the Council of Guardians for a recount of his votes.
According to polls taken before the elections in various parts of Tehran he
must have been among the top 10 vote-getters, he said in his letter of protest
to the Council of Guardians.
"One of the characteristics of the recent elections is the low turnout
in Tehran. Only 27 percent of the eligible voters in the capital went to the
polls, as opposed to around 55 percent for the country," the analyst said.
"Another important factor shown by the makeup of the votes is that the
pro-government winners are far less popular than thought, at least in Tehran,
which usually sets the trend for the whole country," he said.
(Inter Press Service)