6TH Writethru, Saturday AM: Over 60% K-12 schools and colleges are back in session, but there’s nothing like a decent horror film to dynamite students away from their books, and this weekend there’s Sony Screen Gems/Stage 6’s Don’t Breathe which is overperforming with a $22.4M opening.
Sony’s genre label has tapped this late August period before, and knows that with a thrifty-budgeted pic that jibes with the 18-35 demo, there’s cash to be made. Don’t Breathe is on its way to become the biggest Screen Gems August opening ever, beating the 3-day of the 2010 urban crime title Takers which debuted to $20.5M and finaled close to $60M.
With Don’t Breathe Sony allocated 55% of the pic’s marketing spend to digital, a share that’s larger than what was set aside for Shallows and Sausage Party (tied in 4th with Kubo and the Two Strings currently for $7.2M, -53%, $79.5M cume). Non-Sony estimates figure that Don’t Breathe‘s P&A is in the $20M range. The movie cost under $10M. While heavy digital marketing isn’t unusual for a horror film, it’s just another example of the Culver City, CA studio getting the biggest bang for its buck when it comes to hooking a specific demo. The proof is in the exit polls: The Under 35 crowd for Don’t Breathe turned up at 73% and gave it an A- CinemaScore — unheard of for a horror title. ComScore’s PostTrak shows the 18-24 demo repping 42% of the pic’s ticket buyers, who awarded Don’t Breathe with an 80% total positive score.
Don’t Breathe‘s overall CinemaScore is a B+, which is huge for a horror film and a boom for Alvarez whose 2013 reboot of Evil Dead received a C+. Horror titles rarely receive overall A scores, and getting a B+ is akin to getting an A on the CinemaScore scale, especially with an R-rated title such as this.
Don’t Breathe started its campaign at SXSW back in March where it premiered in the Midnight slot. Pic’s digital initiatives included targeting millennials with the first ever 360 Snapchat ad for a movie (see below), which lets fans experience the blind antagonist’s basement. Movie content was delivered via mobile ads that would trigger a cell phone’s vibrate during key scares. And there was a slew of animated gifs across Twitter and Facebook.
RelishMix reports this morning that hashtags on Twitter and Instagram for #DontBreathe popped 8X since Thursday previews up to 5.8K, topping #HandsOfStone with 2.6k and #MechanicResurrection with 2.1K.
In addition there was a screening at San Diego Comic-Con with Alvarez and producer Sam Raimi in attendance. Don’t Breathe was the closing night film at Fantasia Film Festival in Montreal, and the opening night title at the Bruce Campbell Horror Film Festival in Chicago. There was also a Chicago Wizard World panel with Alvarez and actor Stephan Lang. Sony showed off Don’t Breathe at colleges and influencer screenings in 30 markets, and partnered with Alamo Drafthouse for a screening that featured a live-streamed Q&A with Alvarez.
Don’t Breathe was produced in-house by Steve Bersh’s Stage 6 Films. Bersh brought in the $3M War Room which launched on this exact weekend last year to $11M+ and ticked up the next weekend for the Labor Day holiday weekend to $13M.
The industry’s August champ Suicide Squad slides to second in its fourth FSS with an estimated $11.5M, -45% for a running total by Sunday of $282.3M. No title in 2016 has held the No. 1 spot for four weekends in a row. Suicide Squad was the fifth title to hold No. 1 for three weekends straight following Finding Dory, The Jungle Book, Zootopia and Deadpool.
Lionsgate’s 11th Jason Statham release Mechanic: Resurrection is approaching the middle of its $6M-$8M projection with an estimated $6.8M. Lionsgate thinks it can get it to $7M by Sunday for 5th place rung. On paper, Statham’s solo action openings don’t wow, especially if you juxtapose them with his recent ensemble work: Spy ($29M opening, $110M final), Furious 7 ($147M opening, $353M final) and heck, even the disastrous Expendables 3 ($15.9M opening, $39.3M final). And yet Resurrection isn’t Statham’s lowest for a solo action title: Those goat horns belong to the 2008 Uwe Boll-directed fantasy film In the Name of the King which opened to $2.98M and died at $4.8M.
But there’s a reason why Lionsgate, here under their Lionsgate Premiere/Summit label, continues to be in the Statham business. On home entertainment, this guy can do anywhere from 150% to 200% of domestic B.O. On the 2011 Mechanic (which was a remake of the 1972 Charles Bronson movie), CBS Film acquired the Simon West movie for $5M, made $29M and sold per ComScore 1.5M copies on DVD/Blu-Ray at an average retail price of $32 a pop and another 2.1M rentals. I hear that if Resurrection ultimately does a 2 to 2.5 multiple at the domestic B.O., it will lead to certain revenue points in home entertainment and that Liongate should be fine on this. And if they weren’t making money, they wouldn’t get behind Statham. Millennium financed the sequel for $40M. Lionsgate snapped up domestic rights for a bit higher than CBS paid for The Mechanic (but lower than $9M). Lionsgate also has the UK on Resurrection, and it’s a similar revenue-generator situation over there with Statham making close to double in home entertainment versus his B.O. receipts.
What’s also interesting when you look under the hood of the exit polls, is that the moviegoers who shelled out for Resurrection love Statham. His fans turned up at 60% last night per CinemaScore, and the overall crowd gave the sequel a B+ to Mechanic‘s B-. Safe also received a B+ and turned around a 2x multiple off its $7.9M opening with a final domestic of $17M. Breaking down Resurrection‘s demos, it has a number of As: 49% female (A-), Under 18 at 12% (A), and Under 25 at 22% (A-). The 25 and above crowd (78%) and males (51%) gave it a B+.
Among those films that decided to open at the lower side of wide in 800 theaters, Roadside Attractions/Miramax/IM Global’s Barack and Michelle Obama first-date movie Southside With You is besting Weinstein Co.’s Roberto Duran biopic Hands of Stone, $3M to $1.8M. Southside was projected to have the upper hand given its appeal to African American moviegoers, plus Blue States’ fervor for the outgoing Obama presidential administration. The Richard Tanne-directed movie also boasts the best reviews out of the wider entries this weekend with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score, with Don’t Breathe following at 87% fresh.
While Hands of Stone doesn’t even come close to ranking on the list of worst wide openers, many B.O. analysts feel it’s not a good start for a movie with so many national ads. But keep in mind, the film’s real opening day is this Wednesday when it breaks into 2,000 theaters and TWC has certainly shown to leg out an adult title at the B.O. There was a lot of heart put into this movie directed by Jonathan Jakubowicz with Duran and his family heavily involved in production. Critics pained Hands of Stone with a 46% Rotten Tomatoes score, but audiences are pummeling back with positive reactions. Per CinemaScore, Hands of Stone earned an A with audiences 18-34 giving it an A+. Males turned up at 54% with 46% females. 64% of the audience attended because of the subject matter and 42% bought tickets to watch Edgar Ramirez, Usher and Robert De Niro.
ERM Research shows an 84 top two box score with a definite recommend of 70, with males over 35 rating the film with a top two of 90 and a definite recommend of 77 and females over 35 rating the film with a top two of 97 and a definite recommend of 88. Audience was 60/40 male-female split. Unlike other boxing films, which are a shoo-in with guys, women also love Hands of Stone.
Among second weekends for last week’s crop, it’s hard for adult-skewing titles to keep up this late in the summer, especially when there isn’t a groundswell of awesome reviews for them: Warner Bros.’s War Dogs is down an estimated -56% with $6.5M in seventh place while MGM/Paramount’s $100M bomb Ben-Hur is bottoming out in tenth place with an estimated $4.4M, -61% with a 10-day total by Sunday of $19.4M. Kubo looks OK at -42% for a potential third place slot despite the fact that previous Laika titles have seen better second weekend holds.
Below are the results for the weekend of Aug. 26-28 as of Friday night:
1). Don’t Breathe (SONY), 3,051 theaters / $10M Fri (includes $1.9M previews)/ 3-day cume: $22.4M / Wk 1
2). Suicide Squad (WB), 3,582 theaters (-342) / $3.3M Fri.(-47%)/ 3-day cume: $11.5M (-45%) /Total cume: $282.3M/ Wk 4
3). Kubo and the Two Strings (FOC), 3,279 theaters (+19)/ $1.94M Fri (-52%)/ 3-day cume: $7.2M (-42%)/Total cume: $24.1M/ Wk 2
Sausage Party (SONY/APP), 3,135 theaters (+32) / $2.3M Fri (-54%) / 3-day cume: $7.2M (-53%)/Total cume: $79.5M/Wk 3
5). Pete’s Dragon (DIS), 3,244 theaters (-458)/ $1.8M Fri. (-42%)/ 3-day cume: $6.8M (-40%)/Total cume:$54.2M/Wk 3
Mechanic: Resurrection (LG), 2,258 theaters / $2.57M Fri (includes $390K previews) / 3-day cume: $6.8M / Wk 1
7). War Dogs (WB), 3,258 theaters (0) / $1.98M Fri (-64%) / 3-day cume: $6.5M (-56%) /Total cume: $27M/Wk 2
8). Bad Moms (STX), 2,565 theaters (-246)/ $1.7M Fri. (-33%)/ 3-day cume: $5.4M (-32%)/Total cume: $95M/ Wk 5
9). Jason Bourne (UNI), 2,445 theaters (-442) / $1.4M Fri. (-38%) /3-day cume: $5M (-38%)/Total cume: $149.1M/ Wk 5
10). Ben-Hur (PAR/MGM), 3,084 theaters / $1.3M Fri. (-68%)/ 3-day cume: $4.4M (-61%) /Total: $19.4M/ Wk 2
NOTABLES:
Hell or High Water (CBS/Lionsgate), 909 theaters (+437) / $988K Fri. (+33%) /3-day cume: $3.4M (+26%)/Total Cume: $8.2M/ Wk 3
Southside With You (RSA/MAX/IMG), 813 theaters / $1M Fri (includes $75K previews) / 3-day cume: $3M / Wk 1
Hands of Stone (TWC), 810 theaters / $626k Fri (includes $100K previews)/ 3-day cume: $1.8M / Wk 1
The Hollars (SPC), 4 theaters / $12,5k Fri /PTA: $10,4K/ 3-day cume: $42K/ Wk 1
Mia Madre (MUSIC), 2 theaters / $6k Fri /PTA: $10k/ 3-day cume: $35k / Wk 1
4th UPDATE, Friday midday: Whatever bit of summer is left at the box office, Sony Pictures is going to squeeze it out this weekend. Its Screen Gems/Stage 6 film Don’t Breathe is putting its $11M-$14M projections to sleep with a revised industry weekend projection of $21.5M-$24M — a stellar result for a horror film at this point in August. Today alone, the second feature from Fede Alvarez looks to grab $9M inclusive of that $1.875M preview cash from last night. Prior to this weekend, only five horror thrillers have opened to more than $20M in August, and Don’t Breathe raises that count to six. How high this goes hinges on late-night traffic.
Warner Bros’ Suicide Squad looks to settle with $10M-$12M in its fourth weekend, down 47% for a running cume by Sunday on the high end of $283M.
Lionsgate Premiere’s Mechanic: Resurrection at this point looks to file an estimated $2.5M today for a $6.75M weekend, just under Jason Statham’s previous solo action project Safe ($7.9M). Film largely was financed by Millennium. Roadside Attractions/Miramax/IM Global’s Southside With You is looking at a $1M Friday inclusive of a $75K Thursday night for a $3M weekend at 813 theaters. The Weinstein Company’s boxing biopic Hands Of Stone is looking at $650K today, per industry estimates, including an estimated $100K from last night, for a three-day opening of $1.8M at 810 sites.
3rd Friday AM UPDATE: Sony’s Screen Gems/Stage 6’s R-rated horror film Don’t Breathe drew $1.875 million from previews last night starting at 7 PM, which is fantastic this late in the summer given that a majority of kids are back in school. We’re hearing this morning from B.O. trackers and non-Sony sources that Don’t Breathe has a very good shot to clear $20M this weekend, given these powerful numbers, and easily will kick Warner Bros.’ Suicide Squad out of No. 1 after three weeks.
Couple this with the intel that Fandango advance ticket sales for Don’t Breathe are out-clicking such previous horror thrillers as Lights Out ($21.7M opening) and The Visit ($25.4M), and it makes sense that the Screen Gems/Stage 6 film (which cost under $10M) is heading for a solid weekend. The DC holdover is looking at $10M-$11M this weekend. Essentially, East Coast matinees for the Fede Alvarez horror movie are 10% behind The Purge: Election Year, but that title had a powerful Thursday with $3.64M. Don’t Breathe‘s previews inch out the $1.8M earned by both last month’s Lights Out and Alvarez’s previous movie, the 2013 reboot of Evil Dead.
Evil Dead would go on to post a $25.8M opening, largely fueled by the franchise’s fervent fan base. Sony as of now sees Don’t Breathe‘s business at a more modest level, in the spirit of other late-August horror openers that have posted in the midteens, but too many people are telling us that the horror film will hit $20M. Again, it’s still early. The other advantage with Don’t Breathe is that its core audience comes out at night (of course).
Among other newcomers this weekend, Lionsgate, under its Lionsgate Premiere, has the distributor’s 11th Jason Statham movie this weekend, the sequel Mechanic: Resurrection. It made $390K on 1,800 screens Thursday and is poised to bank $7M-$9M for the weekend. Statham’s previous non-ensemble feature for Lionsgate, 2012’s Safe, loaded a $7.9M opening and a final cume of $17.1M.
Roadside Attractions’ Obamas first-date movie Southside With You and The Weinstein Company’s Roberto Duran biopic Hands of Stone, both platform releases, will not release Thursday numbers and will fold those takes into their Friday data.
Meanwhile, Don’t Breathe marks the second collaboration between Alvarez and producer Sam Raimi following Evil Dead three years ago.
Typically with an R-rated horror film, the hard-core, older-male-skewing genre fans turn up on Thursday night. Sony premiered Don’t Breathe at SXSW and kept the buzz going with screenings at Comic-Con. From 78 reviews, it counts a Rotten Tomatoes score of 90%. Don’t Breathe carries an estimated production cost that’s under $10M.
Suicide Squad, which made $1.67M yesterday, saw its three-week cume climb to $270.8M. This weekend, the David Ayer supervillain film is expected to bring in an estimated $10M-$11M, and if it does wind up slashing Don’t Breathe, it will be the first title this year to hold the No. 1 spot four weekends in a row. Currently, Suicide Squad is outpacing August’s previous comic book hit Guardians of the Galaxy (final B.O. $333M) by 16%.
Roadside has been ticking up the theater count for Southside With You to 813. Many expect this movie, which was financed and produced by IM Global for under $5M, to pop at the B.O. this weekend with a three-day take between $3M-$5M. Miramax, with Roadside as a partner, bought the movie at Sundance for about $2M with a mid-seven-figure P&A commitment.
Given the fierce competition this weekend for Hispanic and African-American moviegoers, the Weinsteins are opting to go wide with Hands of Stone on Wednesday, August 31. Today the Roberto Duran biopic starring Edgar Rodriguez and Robert De Niro is playing at about 800 venues and is looking at an opening of $2.5M-$3.5M per industry tracking.
Don’t Breathe is awesome.
Saw it last night, crowd loved it.
Trailer/TV commercials were amazing.
Finally a first rate R horror.
I saw Don’t Breathe last night too. Slept through most of it, so I left halfway and got a refund. Gotta love florida.
Cute story Jamie. Too bad not a word of it was true.
How do you know? Or are you admitting that you were watching Jamie in the movie theater and then followed him/her outside? Do you do that often?
Hey! It’s that time of year again when Hollywood studios remember that well-produced, modestly budgeted horror movies can make back their budgets by 6pm on Friday night! Oh, how nice…
One wonders why studios don’t make more horror films and fewer big budget movies like The BFG and Tarzan where they have to wait a while to make a profit. Stick to horror films budgeted at 10M or less and you basically can’t lose money.
There were years when few horror films made much money. Happily, this year has seen a high number of quality originals and decent sequels that have made money. That should lead to an increase in horror films in wide release in the next few years.
Dont Breathe is a fantastic little movie and one of the best of the summer. Horror and animation have reigned supreme this year.
I LOVED this movie! It should be making 10 times more money than that crap-fest movie they call Suicide Squad. Don’t Breathe is one of this year’s best movies!
justice league dark… Yeah,,,!!
Don’t Breathe doesn’t exactly live up to all its hype, but it was decent enough. And yes. that one scene was nasty, but deserved.
Original story, ( sort of) no stars, low budget, what a change to all those bloated flics this summer. I will go and see it.
It’s so hard these days to sell an original.
Nitetime,Robbery, haunted house, stalker slasher,
don’t go in the basement, tied up female captive, stolen baby, lights go out, arise after being knocked out, what’s in the refrigerator, …..
Got it covered all in one movie.
Deadpool and Suicide Squad were the only two non-family films to be #1 three weekends in a row this year. It shows that you can release a movie people want to see in any month and it will make big money. And it shows that studios let these months be very uncompetitive this year. The focus solely on releasing big movies in May, June and July has proven counter-productive this year, with movies cannibalizing each other during those overcrowded months, leading to lots of underperformers like Trek, TMNT, X-Men, Tarzan, Ghostbusters, ID4, Alice, Ice Age, Now You See Me, Neighbors, Huntsman and BFG.
I’m very surprised some of these titles weren’t moved to August (where the first TMNT performed much better). It looks like we had 67 releases in August in 2013 but as of last week only 41 this year. In the last 10 years we had at least two $100 million+ grossers in August every year except for three, and two of those three years were 2016 and 2015. The studios missed a big opportunity to take down the highly vulnerable Suicide Squad with its weak reviews and audience scores. Instead they did not even try with anything that had a reasonable chance of topping $100 million.
Big take by Don’t Breathe. Pretty much always going to be a guaranteed money maker with such a small budget and with hirror fans always looking for product. The problem with most horror films though is that they have a big opening weekend, or sometimes just a huge Friday, then fizzle fast. One could argue that a 9-10 million Friday for this with just it’s equal the next 2 days could be the same. It’s a rare breed like The Conjuring which really goes super big. Now, will Blair Witch be similar or is there still too much bad taste from the original gimmick to draw folks in, especially after so much time has passed?
Saw Don’t Breathe last night – YIKES! it steamrolled me into my seat, I bit down several nails during those 88 grueling minutes. Very well directed.
Sausage Party like it 2016’s agemate, Zootopia and SLOP will be a big universe of films-sequels, spin-offs, what’s-not going forward.I am happy for Seth Rogen (unfortunately he will sell his film studio-Point Grey to the Chinese when the time comes).
Geez Sony not only owns Columbia Pictures one of the “Big 6” bought owns more speciality labels than any of the conglomerate with;Screen Gem, Tri-Star Pictures, Affirm, SPA, Sony Pictures Classics.Damn that 6 Speciality labels.
Who exactly would pay $10-15 to watch a fictional account of a supposed 1st date for a film that looks like and after school special? Is the ‘When Bill met Hill’ movie in production too?
Obama movie? Flop.
Come on, there’s no way Nu Image spent $40 million on Mechanic 2. Actually despite the stunning locations and being better than expected (the australia scene is perhaps the most memorable moment in all of this summers movies) the film seems lower budget than his usual flicks.
Also maybe the people in charge of Stage 6 films should be head of Sony’s productions and acquisitions. Yes they mostly make trashy direct to vid sequels but they Stage 6 has also been attached to all of the most interesting flicks that have come out of Sony in the last several years.
I don’t know. In my opinion these type movies from a studio don’t gain an Executive points. Lowest hanging fruit type product. Sure make the film for $4-$6 Million dollars, put $7 million in P&A, blast it on 3000 screens and every nerd and bored person looking for something to see on a slow weekend will pay to check it out. That said, congrats to the filmmakers on a well directed horror pic. As for the executives over at Stage 6/Screen Gems, black films and horror films don’t get you a seat at the big boys table in town. So start putting out edgier and sexier product. Ijs.