Italy Appears to Be Losing Patience in the Regeni Case

The Italian Government and media appear to be losing patience with Egypt's failure to provide a satisfactory explanation of the bating death, with signs of torture, of Graduate student Giulio Regeni. After Italy rejected the "it was a criminal gang and they're all dead now. Case closed" explanation, Egypt. Now Italy appears to be upping the ante:

The foreign minister of Italy said Tuesday that his government would take “immediate and proportional” measures against Egypt if it failed to help uncover the truth behind the death of an Italian graduate student in Cairo two months ago.

“We will stop only when we will find the truth, the real one,” Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni told Parliament, adding that he would not accept any “fabrication.”

Egypt delayed one delegation to Italy, and even the Editor of state-owned  Al-Ahram dared to suggest that the case could have the kind of effect the death of Khaled Said ha on the Mubarak regime.

There are reports that Egypt would admit to having investigated Regeni.

Meanwhile the Association for Italian Tourism said it was suspending all package tours to Egypt.

The Regeni case, due to its international dimension, is also being increasingly embraced by the Egyptian opposition as a means of mobilizing foreign support in aneriod of increasing repression.

Egyptian Police Say Regeni Killing Was Done by a "Criminal Gang" Disguised as Police, But the Gang is All Dead Now, So, Case Closed?

From the time Italian graduate student Giulio Regeni was found tortured and killed, the police have offered several explanations, but most have been dismissed or denied by prosecutors investigating the case.

The latest explanation goes like this: Regeni was kidnapped by a gang who dressed as policemen to abduct and rob foreigners. (Are other foreigners missing?) The police raided the gang's hideout and found Regeni's passport and other belongings. Conveniently the gang were all killed in the resulting firefight. Therefore, case closed, right?

The fact that the police have produced Regeni's passport could, of course, be just as easily explained if, as many suspect, they were responsible for his death. The Ministry of the Interior, which supervises the police, has given confused accounts of whether the gang was responsible. Blogger Zeinobia raises some of the obvious questions.

Nor is Italy satisfied. The whole thing seems too convenient, and now the Interior Ministry says the investigation is ongoing.

I don't think this case is closed, however much the police may want it to be.

More Mediterranean Migrants Have Probably Drowned This Year to Date than Died on the Titanic, but None of Them were Named Astor or Guggenheim

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Emma Lazarus for the Statue of Liberty

The latest disaster of a sinking ship carrying migrants from Libya and other parts of Africa to southern Europe has drowned somewhere between 700 and 950 human beings; and it's only one of several such sinkings in the last few weeks. The navies and coast guards of Italy, Malta, and Greece try to rescue survivors, but overpacked migrant ships often capsize with most of the passengers below decks. Libyan migrants are not the only ones aboard; sub-Saharan Africans are also fleeing through Libya.

No one knows the exact toll because some ships may disappear wholly undetected. Many think the death toll this year alone may be over 2,000, perhaps 1,500 or so in the last month alone.

A hundred and three years and a week ago, on April 14, 1912, RMS Titanic sank.  Somewhere between 1,500 and 1,600 people died. Some had names like Astor and Guggenheim, and it became one of the great symbols of the end of an era. Now thousands whose names will never be known are dying at sea, and thousands more are crowding into Lampedusa and Malta and other places looking for refuge. James Cameron probably will not make a high-budget film about their last hours.

It's not just Libya. Refugees from sub-Saharan Africa have been pouring into North Africa looking for a route to Europe. There are no easy answers to massive refugee flows. But there may be humanitarian answers to massive drownings. How many Titanics need to sink before the UNHCR and others recognize we are dealing with a first-order crisis? Despite my reproducing the Photoshop above I can't blame the European countries alone. The North African countries are doing their best to funnel refugees through as quickly as possible and out to sea.

I think the world is finally noticing the toll. The North African countries need to recognize their own responsibilities in this escalating disaster.

copyright Wall Street Journal

El Alamein: 70 Years Ago

"At 9:40 p.m., the barrage of over one thousand guns opened ..."

It may almost be said, "Before Alamein we never had a victory. After Alamein we never had a defeat."

— Winston S. Churchill,  The Hinge of Fate (History of the Second World War, Volume V), US edition,  p. 603

Seventy years ago today two great armies totaling over 300,000 men stood poised, facing each other in Egypt only some 50 miles west of Alexandria, One flank was anchored on the Mediterranean, the other on the northern edge of the Qattara depression some 40 miles to the south. Though about to launch probably the largest battle ever fought on Egyptian soil, neither army was Egyptian. Though Egypt, reoccupied by Britain at the start of the war. was nominally a British ally, the Egyptian Army was suspected of Axis sympathies.

Seventy years ago tonight, the British Eighth Army and its Australian, New Zealand, Indian, South African, Greek and Free French allies launched the artillery barrage shown in the photo above. Their commander, Lt. Gen. Bernard Law Montgomery (who would be ennobled as Viscount Montgomery of Alamein), had gone to sleep.

In the evening [of October 23, 1942] I read a book and went to bed early. At 9:40 p.m. the barrage of  over one thousand guns opened, and the Eighth Army, which included some 1200 tanks went into the attack. At that moment I sas asleep in my caravan; there4 was nothing I could do and I knew I would be needed later. There is always a crisis in every battle when the issue hangs in the balance, and I reckoned I should get what rest I could while I could. As it turned out, I was wise to have done so; my intervention was needed sooner than I expected.

—Montgomery of Alamein, Memoirs of  Field Marshal the Viscount Montgomery of Alamein, K.G., US edition, pp. 116-117

Montgomery at Alamein, later Montgomery of Alamein

As the British commander slept, the overall commander of the Axis Panzerarmee Afrika (popularly called the Afrika Korps, which was only a part of it) which faced him was on sick leave  back in  Germany. Field Marshal Erwin Rommel, the famous "Desert Fox," had left Lt. Gen. Georg Stumme in command of the German and Italian forces at Alamein. The day after the fight began, October 24, Stumme was at the front when he suffered a heart attack and died. Rommel rushed back hurriedly, arriving the night of October 25. Rommel would eventually see El Alamein in the same terms as the British did:

The battle which began at El Alamein on the 23rd October 1942 turned the tide of war in Africa against us and, in fact, probably represented the turning point of the whole vast struggle. The conditions under which my gallant  troops entered the battle were so disheartening that there was practically no hope of our coming out of it victorious.

—The Rommel Papers, ed. by  B.H. Liddell-Hart p. 302

Rommel (at left)

The Russians who would defeat a German Army Group at Stalingrad in just a few weeks might disagree that Alamein was the turning point, but it was clearly a major one.

The turning point battle that began 70 years ago today was actually the Second Battle of El Alamein. The first, in July, had actually been the battle that stopped Rommel and fortified the position anchored on the Qattara Depression, which was too precipitate for tank operations and thus prevented the position being flanked. That battle had been fought by General Claude Auchinleck, who was then replaced by Montgomery. Auchinleck's admirers, who do not overlap at all  with Montgomery's admirers, often argue he deserves more credit than he gets for the ultimate outcome.

Before First Alamein, government offices in both Alexandria and Cairo were  burning documents and Alexandria came under German bombing; British plans were prepared to fall back to the Suez Canal if needed. That never became necessary, and after July it was not really a threat. But when the Second Battle of El Alamein ended in early November, Rommel was in full retreat, and with the American Torch landings in Algeria and Morocco soon after, the war in North Africa was dramatically transformed.

Diana Buja has some thoughts and links on the anniversary here, as well as reprinting earlier descriptions o Mersa Matruh.

And though Egyptian combat troops weren't fighting in the battle, some Egyptians are still dying as bedouin encounter mines and unexploded ordnance in that 40 mile corridor that are still lethal, as this anniversary report from The Independent reminds us. At least 17 people have been injured just this year.

World War II in the Middle East sometimes seems little remembered even in the countries affected, but I plan to look more at it as time permits, especially from local perspectives.

Positions at Start of Battle

Welcome, Bienvenue, and Benvenuto to Mission Creep

Now that Great Britain, France and Italy are all going to provide boots on the ground military advisers to the rebels in Libya, the BBC reminds us:

In 1975, a handful of Soviet military advisers were sent to Afghanistan; by 1978, there were more than 3,000; within a decade, well over half a million Soviet troops ha[d] passed through.
US involvement in Vietnam also began with a small advisory mission in 1950. It expanded to 750 in 1955, and 16,300 by 1963.

This reflects the inherent difficulties of long-distance regime change, and the excessive and usually disappointed hopes placed in modern air power.

I know, history doesn't repeat itself; there isn't going to be a Gulf of Sidra Resolution . . . is there?

More on Intervention: The Military Issues

Further to my initial reactions of last night, a few thoughts before anything starts to happen in the Libyan intervention:

• A robust European participation. It's good that the US will not be taking the lead, though of course US forces, AWACS and other surveillance assets will be present. The absence of a US carrier contributes to this, but it's best not to let Qadhafi paint this as an American operation.

• Air strikes are essential, but may also be enough. Bosnia and Kossovo may be suitable parallels. The main advantage the Qadhafi forces have is their air power and armor. This is classic tank country, made famous by Rommel and Montgomery. If the armor can be blunted by air strikes, it can have real effect.

• There probably already are special operators on the ground. Everyone has made clear that there sill be no invasion, no "boots on the ground." In terms of infantry that will surely be the case, but special operations forces are probably already present. Recall that an SAS team already got caught blundering around in eastern Libya. I suspect their American and French equivalents are there too.

• The question of Egyptian involvement. Egypt has the most immediate interests in play here, and the largest Army in the region. There are already reports that Egypt is providing small arms to the rebels and may be providing elite special forces to train the rebels as well. I suspect that, short of Qadhafi forces crossing the international border, the Egyptians will keep their involvement fairly low-key and deniable; they are still in the middle of revolutionary ferment and the military, which is running the country now, is understandably preoccupied. But if push came to shove, the only nearby state that could field a large enough Army to crush the Qadhafi forces is Egypt's.

This is NOT Mubarak's Granddaughter: Berlusconi Drags Mubarak into His Latest Scandal

Let's get this clear to begin with: the young woman at left, a 17-year old Moroccan belly dancer who calls herself Ruby Rubacuori, or Ruby the Heart Robber, and whose real name may be Karima, is not the granddaughter of Husni Mubarak. Mubarak has one granddaughter, Gamal's daughter Farida, who is less than a year old. Though no photos of Farida have been published, I'm pretty sure we can say that this isn't she. This young (underage in fact) lady is, however, the cause of a flap between Italy and Egypt, since Mubarak's sometime good friend Silvio Berlusconi dropped Mubarak's name in trying to get his young friend (if that's the right euphemism) out of jail.

I pay only peripheral attention to European politics, but sometimes the Middle East gets dragged in. Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi seems to have a penchant for scandal, usually involving women (singular or plural) or money or frequently both, but his latest one, through a particularly impolitic ploy, has embarrassed his good friend Mubarak. You can read the basics here. It's too funny to ignore, frankly. And it makes me feel sorry for Mubarak, which takes some doing.

Berlusconi has been linked to the 17-year old Moroccan belly dancer pictured above (her Facebook profile pic), which is not as shocking, apparently, to his Italian support base as it might be if he were an American politician (though the Moroccan connection alone would be enough to qualify as fodder for this blog), and it's hardly his first trespass, though the fact that the girl is under age adds a bit of flavor. (There are now several Facebook pages devoted to her, some of which, despite my lack of Italian, are clearly bogus or satirical. And many now list her as a "Public Figure" which, given the photos, may be an intentional pun.)

The young lady (to use the polite term) in question is supposedly the mistress, or perhaps I should say a mistress, of Signor Berlusconi, who is known to enjoy female company, sometimes in excess, and in plural. She found herself arrested in Milan on suspicion of theft. According to the authorities, someone not yet identified in the Prime Minister's Office called the police and urged her release, telling them she was a granddaughter of Husni Mubarak. As already noted, Farida Gamal Mubarak is not yet a year old, and he has no other granddaughters. As the Guardian story linked above notes, "According to Italian media reports, a showgirl turned politician close to Berlusconi collected Ruby following her release." You really can't make this stuff up. The "showgirl turned politician" springs the underage belly dancer from the slammer.

This is causing some scandal in Italy because, despite Berlusconi's frequent flaunting of his sexual escapades, this one involved a potential abuse of Prime Ministerial office. And it also has a diplomatic angle, since he, or someone acting in his name, dragged Husni Mubarak into the mix. (He's also of course a good pal of Qadhafi: that would possibly have been even funnier.)

The Egyptian press has been pretty quiet but the Egyptian Embassy in Rome and the MENA news agency went out of their way to emphasize that she is not a granddaughter, niece, great-uncle or any other relative of Mubarak's. So Egypt is clearly annoyed. Berlusconi has brazened his way through a lot of scandals, mostly through sheer gall, but this one with its underage belly dancer and international embarrassment and apparent abuse of office, might prove different.

[NOTE: If one of those Facebook pages is correct, she was born November 1, 1992, and so may have just turned 18. Perhaps Berlusconi has been saved by the calendar.]

Qadhafi in Rome Again

Brother Leader, making his usual fashion statement, has been in Rome for the fourth visit since signing a friendship agreement in 2008.

So far, he's assembled 200 young Italian actresses and models and urged them to convert to Islam; urgd the Islamization of Europe; offered millions to a small town that showed him hospitality; and let it be known thas a photo of him with Silvio Berlusconi will appear on Libyan passports.

He would be so entertaining if it weren't for the fact that the Libyan people have to live under him.

Relic of an Earlier Age: Amedeo Guillet, 1909-2010

An Italian military hero with connections to both the Middle East and the horn of Africa died last month (though it's taken some time to come to my attention) has died at the venerable age of 101. Amedeo Guillet, the "Devil Commander," served in Libya, commanded Moroccan troops during the Spanish Civil War as part of Mussolini's support for Franco, then campaigned in Ethiopia against the Ethiopians and the British (and is said to have led the last cavalry charge faced by the British Army). He fled to Yemen, where he befriended the Imam and lived for some years. After World War II he served Italy as a diplomat, with postings in Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Morocco, and India. He's said to be one of the most decorated figures in Italian history. A Daily Telegraph appreciation is here; and his Wikipedia entry is here.

‘Umar al-Mukthar's Revenge? Brother Colonel Goes to Italy

I have occasionally commented on the always interesting antics of the Leader of the Libyan Revolution (who of course holds no political office whatsoever), Brother Colonel Qadhafi. Now that he's welcome in the West again, some links on Brother Colonel's much-hyped visit to the former Colonial Power: Qadhafi and Berlusconi together really deserves some kind of attention, and he has never visited Italy at least since taking power in 1969: posts from Maghreb Politics Review again, and from The Arabist, and from BBC with a shot of Qadhafi wearing a photo on his tunic of the arrest of ‘Umar al-Mukhtar.

He showed up with his female bodyguards (I hope he's been following Berlusconi's recent, um, bad publicity on that front) and wearing yet another creatively designed military uniform with big epaulets; but the photo on the tunic is a particularly interesting touch, especially since this is supposed to be his tour of reconciliation with Italy. Kind of like the US President meeting the Queen with a big picture of, say, Nathan Hale or the Boston Tea Party pinned to his jacket.

During his memorable performance at the Doha Arab Summit, it was clear that Qadhafi had recently grown a mustache. Now, it appears, he has a small chin goatee growing as well. Given his recent sparring with King ‘Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, the new look is, well, remarkably Saudi. I can't immediately find an open source photo (and as a publisher I make a fetish of honoring copyright), so please go to the BBC link to see what I mean.