Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election is a toss up in a new poll that dropped hours after President Trump announced a trip to help the GOP hold onto the district. 

Monmouth University's new poll finds the race within the margin of error no matter how the pollsters modeled the electorate. 

GOP state Sen. Troy Balderson holds a slim lead with standard midterm turnout and low turnout models, while Democrat Danny O'Connor is up one point if projecting for a surge in Democratic votes. 

That represents a tightening from Monmouth's polling last month, which showed Balderson with the edge, thanks in part to a boost in O'Connor support from independent voters. 

The poll exemplifies the concerns for Republicans, who fear that an embarrassing loss in a district long-held by the GOP could deal a blow to the party going into the November midterms. 

Trump's Saturday rally is part of the GOP's full-court press in the Columbus-area district. 

Vice President Mike Pence campaigned in the district for Balderson this week, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich endorsed the GOP candidate in a show of party unity. 

National Republicans have also boosted Balderson by spending more than $3.3 million on television ads.

In the final days, Republicans have leaned on a familiar playbook, tying Democrat Danny O'Connor to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. While O'Connor has said from the start of his campaign he wants new leadership in both parties, he admitted during an interview with MSNBC's Chris Matthews last week that he'll support whoever the Democratic Party coalesces around for speaker. 

Republicans are accusing O'Connor of going back on his word down the stretch and tying him to Pelosi while Balderson's own closing ad is a positive spot meant to push back against Democratic attacks.

But Democrats are brushing aside the attacks, with O'Connor standing by his call for new leadership in his own closing ad and Democrats hammering Balderson with messaging on health care and retirement.

Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn. – running to fill retiring Sen. Bob Corker's U.S. Senate seat – dislikes being called "congresswoman."

Instead, she prefers "Congressman Blackburn," because "it's the name of the job," she told Yahoo News earlier this year.

Despite Blackburn's disinterest in highlighting her gender, she is on track to make history in Tennessee's primary on Thursday. Running largely unopposed, Blackburn is set to become the first woman in the state to win a Republican nomination for statewide office. (The only two elected statewide positions in Tennessee are governor and U.S. Senate.)

Only one other woman in Tennessee history has won statewide party nomination for Senate. In 1978, Jane Eskind was elected as the Democratic challenger to Republican Sen. Howard Baker. Eskind lost.

Tennessee is one of just seven states that has never elected a female senator or governor. And only six women have been elected to the U.S. House from the state – Blackburn is one of them. Three of the other woman were elected to fill a vacancy caused by the death of a husband and did not run for a second term.

As Blackburn gears up to try and make history again this November, she faces a tough battle against former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen, who's certain to be the Democratic nominee running for Corker's seat.

Although Blackburn is paving the way for women in Tennessee, she is less popular among female voters than Bredesen. According to a Vanderbilt University poll, 46 percent of Tennessee women view Blackburn favorably, compared with 72 percent of women who have a positive view of Bredesen.

Blackburn's aversion to running a campaign focused on gender stands in contrast to many Democrats who are seeking office in this "Year of the Woman." While some Democratic women have produced viral videos highlighting their gender and accomplishments, Blackburn told Washington Post that "I don't campaign on the gender issue."

Two other Republican women also have a chance at Tennessee history this Thursday: Rep. Diane Black (who like Blackburn also goes by "congressman") and State House Speaker Beth Harwell are competing in a crowded primary field for governor.

Although Tennessee Democrats have women running for state and local offices, there are no women vying for the Democratic nomination for senate or governor.

Bernie Sanders has endorsed Florida gubernatorial hopeful Andrew Gillum four weeks before the contested Democratic primary in the state. 

In a tweet, Sanders wrote "As governor, @AndrewGillum will work to provide health care for all through a Medicare-for-All program, raise the minimum wage, invest in sustainable energy, improve education, make sure the wealthiest corporations pay their fair share of taxes, and be welcoming to immigrants."

Gillum has led the charge knocking his opponents — specifically frontrunner Gwen Graham — for not being liberal enough in their policy prescriptions and past political votes.

This primary is on August 28th, so Sanders’ endorsement comes right as candidates begin the sprint to the finish. A Mason-Dixon poll had Gillum in fourth place with 10 percent. Graham (27 percent), Philip Levine (18 percent), and Jeff Greene (12 percent)  rounded out the top three. 

Republicans are unloading cash into Florida, where they are betting that GOP Gov. Rick Scott and his allies can flood the airwaves and frustrate Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson's path to reelection. 

While Democrats are outspending Republicans in key races across the country, Scott and the GOP have so far dwarfed the spending of Nelson and his allies, according to spending numbers provided by Advertising Analytics LLC. 

The combined GOP effort has spent almost $25 million through July, with $15.7 million coming directly from Scott's campaign. 

The almost $8.6 million in Democratic spending is anchored by the $6.2 million spent by the Senate Majority PAC (SMP), the outside group aligned with Senate Democratic leadership. 

That gives Scott about a 3-1 advantage, a major improvement for Democrats from back in May. At that point, before SMP jumped in, Scott had the airwaves virtually to himself with a 50-1 spending advantage. 

Scott, who has his own deep pockets, is also raking in donations as well. He raised $22.5 million in the last fundraising quarter, $14 million of which came from his own personal wealth. Even if he hadn't donated his own money, he still would have set the record for most raised by a candidate this cycle. 

Over that same period, Nelson raised a respectable $4.4 million, a strong figure for an incumbent but a far cry from Scott. 

Nelson told Tampa's WMNF Radio in May that he doesn't plan to start spending on television until the fall. And Democrats have booked almost $35 million in television time for the general election compared to $16 million in GOP general election bookings (although that spending can always be modified or cancelled at any point until the cash is spent).  

But right now, the GOP has an overwhelming advantage on the air in a race that remains neck-and-neck. 

Nevada Republican Sen. Dean Heller is neck-and-neck with Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen in his bid to hold onto his seat in the fall, according to a new poll that finds the race well within its margin of error.

A new poll from Suffolk University in Boston and the Reno Gazette Journal shows the GOP incumbent up just one point, leading Rosen by a margin of 41 points to 40 points among likely voters.

Heller's favorability rating sits at 39 percent compared to his 41.8 percent unfavorable rating. Rosen fares better with those polled, as her favorability rating is at 34 percent compared to an unfavorable rating of 27 percent.

Rosen still has work to do in familiarizing herself with voters ahead of her first statewide bid, as 16 percent of voters say they've never heard of her.

And President Trump's approval is middling — 47 percent of likely voters approve of his job performance while 48 percent do not.

Heller is likely the most vulnerable Republican incumbent up for reelection in 2018, since he's the only one in a state Democrat Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

The Suffolk/Reno Gazette poll surveyed 500 likely Nevada voters between July 25-29 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

The Club for Growth is out with a tough new television ad that evokes decades-old domestic violence allegations against the husband of Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.

The new spot, which drew a harsh rebuke from McCaskill's campaign, questions whether McCaskill can be an advocate for victims because of allegations made against her husband, Joseph Shepherd, at the end of his first marriage.

The spot includes pictures of a petition for a protective order filed against Shepard claiming he "tripped" and "hit" his first wife.

"As victims cry for help, is Claire McCaskill listening? Even after McCaskill's political benefactor and now husband was accused of abusing his then wife, McCaskill looked the other way," the narrator says.

The ad closes with the narrator talking behind a silhouette of a person being hit to the ground.

The ad is running statewide, according to The Washington Examiner. Data provided by Advertising Analytics shows it had already run about 30 times in St. Louis and Springfield by Monday afternoon.

McCaskill's campaign released a brief statement from Shepard's ex-wife, Suzy Shepard, blasting the attack.

"I support Claire and hope she is re-elected. This attack is terribly unfair and the worst kind of disgusting dirty politics," she said. 

And Meira Bernstein, McCaskill's communications director, criticized the ad in her own statement.

"This is an ugly and shameful personal attack. Claire will not be discussing her husband's divorce, which occurred over 20 years ago. Missourians deserve so much better. Josh Hawley should be ashamed," she said.

McCaskill's husband has been at the center of the political attacks against her, especially as her race against Missouri Republican Attorney Gen. Josh Hawley heats up. But until now, those attacks centered on his business record.

Hawley's campaign had no role in the ad and it cannot coordinate with the Club's messaging.

When asked about the criticism, Club spokeswoman Rachael Slobodien defended the ad. 

"Claire McCaskill pretends to be an advocate for women, but it's abhorrent that she continues to ignore her husband's prior record of domestic violence," she said.

"And now she's gone so far as to cover for him and says it doesn't matter. Well it matters to Missouri voters. She's unfit to be Senator."

Update: Kelli Ford, a Hawley campaign spokeswoman, told The Hill in response to the ad that he "doesn't like personal attacks."

"If he had his way, this race would focus 100% on how he and Claire McCaskill differ in the way they approach the job of being Missouri's Senator. Josh believes our Senator should represent Missouri's views while Claire is willing to do whatever helps herself and the Democratic Party elites," Ford added. 

Florida GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis wants to "Make America Great Again," and if he has his way, his young daughter will too.

Just a month out from his gubernatorial primary, DeSantis's campaign released a new spot that plays up his endorsement from President Trump and jokingly shows him giving his young children a crash-course in everything Trump.

He encourages his daughter to "build the wall" while she plays with blocks; reads his son Trump's book, "The Art of the Deal"; and tries to teach his children to say "Make America Great Again" and "Big League," two of the president's catchphrases.

The ad is meant to highlight Trump's endorsement, which has been a central piece of DeSantis's push against Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. DeSantis is one of the president's chief defenders on Capitol Hill, a frequent guest on Fox News, and has also traveled on Air Force One with the president.

Trump backed DeSantis last December, a move that gave the congressman a jolt of energy in the bid against DeSantis, a longtime fixture in Florida Republican politics who had been seen as the frontrunner. The president will visit Tampa on Tuesday for a rally in part to boost DeSantis as well as Republican Gov. Rick Scott's gubernatorial bid and GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz's reelection. 

Recent public polls all put DeSantis up over Putnam — Mason Dixon Polling found the congressman ahead by 12 points in its most recent poll last week.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main Republican super PAC focused on House races, announced Friday it will spread thousands of volunteers across 31 competitive legislative districts this weekend.

In what the group calls “Super Saturday,” the super PAC aims to contact over 400,000 voters through door knocking and phone banking. It’s the third such event for the group that is pledging to raise and spend $100 million to help Republicans maintain their hold on the House of Representatives.

“This election cycle, CLF is committed to doing things differently which is why we launched a data-driven, hyper-targeted field program to help Republican members win in the fall,” CLF Executive Director Corry Bliss said in a statement first reported on by NBC News. The group says its team has made over 15 million “voter contacts” since February 2017.

CLF raised $51 million in the second quarter of this year, announcing a $71 million war chest. In addition, CLF and its rival democratic-backed House Majority PAC have already reserved a combined $100 million in fall television and digital advertising.

 

 

California Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein is still in the driver's seat in her reelection bid, with a new poll showing her with a strong lead over Democratic challenger Kevin de León.

The Public Policy Institute of California pegs Feinstein's support at 46 percent of the state's likely voters, almost doubling up on de León's 24 percent. Nine percent of the voters remain undecided. 

The Democrat-on-Democrat matchup in November's general election was set during last month's "jungle primary," where the top-two vote-getters advanced to the general election regardless of party. Feinstein overwhelmingly clinched the first spot with 44 percent of the vote, while de León edged out Republican James Bradley to punch the second ticket. 

The new poll is the latest proof that despite some dissent among party insiders—the state Democratic Party chose to endorse de León earlier this month—Feinstein still has a commanding grip on the voters. 

Two-thirds of Democratic likely voters support Feinstein, and the incumbent has a 14-point lead with independent voters. A near majority of Republicans, 47 percent, volunteered to the pollster they aren't planning to vote for Senate in a race where their party has no one on the ballot. 

The Public Policy Institute polled 1,020 likely California voters between July 8-17 in both English and Spanish. The sample has a margin of error of 4.3 percent. 

Senate Democrats are ramping up a new ad campaign pegged for the one-year anniversary of the Senate's failed vote to repeal Obamacare, a campaign meant to tar the GOP on health care issues. 

The new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee plan combines digital ads with messaging from state parties and campaigns meant to criticize the GOP-controlled Senate's health care plan and argue that more Democrats are needed to protect health care. NBC News received an exclusive early look at the plan ahead of its rollout later this week. 

"One year ago Republicans made health care the defining issue of the election by pushing an agenda that spikes premiums, slashes coverage for pre-existing conditions and imposes an age tax on older Americans," David Bergstein, a DSCC spokesman, told NBC News in a statement.

"In roughly 100 days, voters will hold every GOP Senate candidate accountable for their toxic proposals, and we won't stop until every voter knows that Republicans want them to pay more for less care."

One of those efforts will be a new digital ad that rounds up negative media coverage of last year's GOP health care plan that ties into the group's new social push, "#VoteForCare." That ad will run as part of an already announced six-figure buy. And the committee will be promoting a variety of graphics, news stories and personal testimonials on that "#VoteForCare" push as well.

And candidates in Ohio, Florida and other key battleground states have already begun to push messaging on health care to correspond with the campaign.

Friday will be the anniversary of the failed Senate vote to repeal portions of Obamacare, a push that was derailed when Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain stepped onto the Senate floor to give the bill a dramatic thumbs-down. 

Since then, other legislation has been proposed in the hopes of repealing and replacing Obamacare but no major overhaul has made it into law. 

Health care remains an important issue to voters in recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls, but the issue fell from the most important issue to voters in the June poll to the second most important issue in July's poll behind the economy and jobs.

And a recent Pew Foundation poll gave Democrats the edge on health care by a 16 point margin.

The DSCC released a memo this week rounding up polling from this cycle to argue the GOP is vulnerable on the issue. 

Still, Republicans have sought to find a footing on the issue by highlighting the push for single-payer health care among progressive Democrats. They argue that plan would have a negative impact on both the economy and freedom to choose the right plan.