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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
At first we were overjoyed. "The Switch won december!" "The Switch has outsold the PS4! "The Switch took China! Every single family owns a Switch!" But it didn't stop there.
They would pile up in large quantities in stores, warehouses, factories. Brand new switches would start to drift out into the oceans, create their own islands. Ecosystems couldn't cope with the rapidly increasing mass of Switches. Fish were choking from joycons stuck in their gills. Giant landmasses would collide with the tectonic plates, ripping apart continents in violent switchquakes.
We thought it would end there.
With smaller revisions, they were now even more lethal. The very air was filled with toxic switch particles. They entered your bloodstream, they clogged up your arteries and ruptured the mitocondria of cells.
A few chosen people were allowed to board spaceships to get away from the barren wastelands that remained. But even the cold vacuum of space could not save them.
Every single cell, every grain of sand, every single flower or blade of grass was now gone, turned into a rectangular piece of gaming hardware with it's own screen, attachable controllers and middling battery life.
The planet's increased density meant that even the moon could do nothing but get drawn closer and finally collide with the former planet. The growth continued. Venus, Mars, Saturn, Jupiter and everything else was absorbed.
At the center of our solar system,
What used to be the source of all life,
had been twisted and turned into a grotesque yellow pentagram by gravitational forces, with two bulging black orbs, as if it was the face of the devil, gleefully looking on the destruction of the galaxy.
The Universe did not go out with a bang, or a whimper.
The last thing anyone would ever see or hear, was
They would pile up in large quantities in stores, warehouses, factories. Brand new switches would start to drift out into the oceans, create their own islands. Ecosystems couldn't cope with the rapidly increasing mass of Switches. Fish were choking from joycons stuck in their gills. Giant landmasses would collide with the tectonic plates, ripping apart continents in violent switchquakes.
We thought it would end there.
With smaller revisions, they were now even more lethal. The very air was filled with toxic switch particles. They entered your bloodstream, they clogged up your arteries and ruptured the mitocondria of cells.
A few chosen people were allowed to board spaceships to get away from the barren wastelands that remained. But even the cold vacuum of space could not save them.
Every single cell, every grain of sand, every single flower or blade of grass was now gone, turned into a rectangular piece of gaming hardware with it's own screen, attachable controllers and middling battery life.
The planet's increased density meant that even the moon could do nothing but get drawn closer and finally collide with the former planet. The growth continued. Venus, Mars, Saturn, Jupiter and everything else was absorbed.
At the center of our solar system,
What used to be the source of all life,
had been twisted and turned into a grotesque yellow pentagram by gravitational forces, with two bulging black orbs, as if it was the face of the devil, gleefully looking on the destruction of the galaxy.
The Universe did not go out with a bang, or a whimper.
The last thing anyone would ever see or hear, was
"Click!"
3 million Switch CONFIRMED
I'm not sure if I'm bothering you too much with this, but do you know what the stock turnover rates of all consoles are, in general terms? I have a feeling that for Switch it is pretty high since I bought one for my sister lately and it was already updated with the latest firmware that had recently come out. The games she bought were also all patched up to new versions. Take the Wii U for example and I think I've seen the same box sitting there for over six months at my local electronics shop.
1,999,999 Switches will stop it.
NPD is for the US, yes.
If you are looking for sales thread for Japan, search the Media Create threads. For Europe (UK is the one mostly discussed, but there is also France, Germany, Spain, Australia, ...), you should check out the PAL threads.
If you are looking for sales thread for Japan, search the Media Create threads. For Europe (UK is the one mostly discussed, but there is also France, Germany, Spain, Australia, ...), you should check out the PAL threads.
since we have nothing else to do (video games? Pfft don’t be ridiculous).
Software predictions time!
10. GTA V (650k units)
9. Just Cause 4 (650k units)
8. Super Mario Party (700k units)
7. Battlefield V (1 million units)
6. Mario Kart 8 (1.2 million units)
5. COD: BO4 (1.4 million units)
4. RDR2 (1.5 million units)
3. Smash bros (4.8 million units)
2. Celeste (10 million units)
1. Sayonara Wild Hearts preorders (19 million units)
Software predictions time!
10. GTA V (650k units)
9. Just Cause 4 (650k units)
8. Super Mario Party (700k units)
7. Battlefield V (1 million units)
6. Mario Kart 8 (1.2 million units)
5. COD: BO4 (1.4 million units)
4. RDR2 (1.5 million units)
3. Smash bros (4.8 million units)
2. Celeste (10 million units)
1. Sayonara Wild Hearts preorders (19 million units)
Oh this thread is just random now? I guess I'll just ask if anyone with numbers has any thoughts about DQXI's performance for the year, namely was it good/bad for the franchise, did it meet your expectation or not, etc. We've got some vague ideas from worldwide numbers and the last numbers we've seen in Japan but there's a lot of unknown in that.
It doesn't seem very high for low capacity cards. Apparently the packaged manufacturing and licensing and shipping costs for an 8GB card are the same as for a standard BR disc, even if the actual card manufacturing step itself is more expensive. Essentially when bundling that all together Nintendo subsidised the actual cost of the cards themselves.
People don't realise that NAND storage prices have been crashing lately. Just look at consumer prices for SD cards and SSDs. Of course the Switch uses a proprietary method for which the market is smaller than general products. I feel the fear was mainly not being able to sell enough games en masse to have top efficiency in production (sharing development and machine cost). But with Switch catching on, I feel prices are lowering steadily. Maybe only the largest cards will cut into profits a bit.
Yea, I've read somewhere 8GB = BR equivalent pricing as well, possible from the same place. But good of Mat to confirm that the card pricing is a bit overblown.
I suspect 16GB cards are only marginally more expensive, but if your a pub in 2018 looking at a much smaller installed base with a marginally more expensive physical goods cost, even if its 10 or 15% more, you'd eschew away from physical. It just made sense, you're expecting to sell fewer units of a SKU and it costs more to manufacture. And you likely have to release the game as 16GB card + 8-10GB additional downloads, so it probably didn't make sense.
I think that issue will be much less in 2019 even at current pricing, but I expect with 64GB cards, 16GB could take the place of 8GB in terms of pricing.
I suspect 16GB cards are only marginally more expensive, but if your a pub in 2018 looking at a much smaller installed base with a marginally more expensive physical goods cost, even if its 10 or 15% more, you'd eschew away from physical. It just made sense, you're expecting to sell fewer units of a SKU and it costs more to manufacture. And you likely have to release the game as 16GB card + 8-10GB additional downloads, so it probably didn't make sense.
I think that issue will be much less in 2019 even at current pricing, but I expect with 64GB cards, 16GB could take the place of 8GB in terms of pricing.
At first we were overjoyed. "The Switch won december!" "The Switch has outsold the PS4! "The Switch took China! Every single family owns a Switch!" But it didn't stop there.
They would pile up in large quantities in stores, warehouses, factories. Brand new switches would start to drift out into the oceans, create their own islands. Ecosystems couldn't cope with the rapidly increasing mass of Switches. Fish were choking from joycons stuck in their gills. Giant landmasses would collide with the tectonic plates, ripping apart continents in violent switchquakes.
We thought it would end there.
With smaller revisions, they were now even more lethal. The very air was filled with toxic switch particles. They entered your bloodstream, they clogged up your arteries and ruptured the mitocondria of cells.
A few chosen people were allowed to board spaceships to get away from the barren wastelands that remained. But even the cold vacuum of space could not save them.
Every single cell, every grain of sand, every single flower or blade of grass was now gone, turned into a rectangular piece of gaming hardware with it's own screen, attachable controllers and middling battery life.
The planet's increased density meant that even the moon could do nothing but get drawn closer and finally collide with the former planet. The growth continued. Venus, Mars, Saturn, Jupiter and everything else was absorbed.
At the center of our solar system,
What used to be the source of all life,
had been twisted and turned into a grotesque yellow pentagram by gravitational forces, with two bulging black orbs, as if it was the face of the devil, gleefully looking on the destruction of the galaxy.
The Universe did not go out with a bang, or a whimper.
The last thing anyone would ever see or hear, was
They would pile up in large quantities in stores, warehouses, factories. Brand new switches would start to drift out into the oceans, create their own islands. Ecosystems couldn't cope with the rapidly increasing mass of Switches. Fish were choking from joycons stuck in their gills. Giant landmasses would collide with the tectonic plates, ripping apart continents in violent switchquakes.
We thought it would end there.
With smaller revisions, they were now even more lethal. The very air was filled with toxic switch particles. They entered your bloodstream, they clogged up your arteries and ruptured the mitocondria of cells.
A few chosen people were allowed to board spaceships to get away from the barren wastelands that remained. But even the cold vacuum of space could not save them.
Every single cell, every grain of sand, every single flower or blade of grass was now gone, turned into a rectangular piece of gaming hardware with it's own screen, attachable controllers and middling battery life.
The planet's increased density meant that even the moon could do nothing but get drawn closer and finally collide with the former planet. The growth continued. Venus, Mars, Saturn, Jupiter and everything else was absorbed.
At the center of our solar system,
What used to be the source of all life,
had been twisted and turned into a grotesque yellow pentagram by gravitational forces, with two bulging black orbs, as if it was the face of the devil, gleefully looking on the destruction of the galaxy.
The Universe did not go out with a bang, or a whimper.
The last thing anyone would ever see or hear, was
"Click!"
I forgot about that. Makes sense shipping would help too since you should be able to ship more units per crate.
As others have corrected me, I think that has resulted in some particularly large games not getting Switch versions altogether rather than some limited runs or digital only releases...unless you know something. ;p
Going by Nintendo’s financials, it seems they have a larger physical to digital ratio when compared to their competitors. Whether this applies to 3rd parties on Switch I think has just been assumed at this point. But is this data you actually provide in your reports? Or do you just give total numbers? Is any of that public or just what a developer chooses to share?
Lastly, thank you for always humoring us. I don’t say it enough.
As others have corrected me, I think that has resulted in some particularly large games not getting Switch versions altogether rather than some limited runs or digital only releases...unless you know something. ;p
Going by Nintendo’s financials, it seems they have a larger physical to digital ratio when compared to their competitors. Whether this applies to 3rd parties on Switch I think has just been assumed at this point. But is this data you actually provide in your reports? Or do you just give total numbers? Is any of that public or just what a developer chooses to share?
Lastly, thank you for always humoring us. I don’t say it enough.
Nintendo really did a great job with their APIs and developer support this go around. It'll be interesting to see this graph updated as the years go on, but it's a hell of a feat doing this even at this stage. Developers must be very happy with how easy they've made the process.
It's a far cry from the horror stories we heard from devs during the Wii U days.
It's a far cry from the horror stories we heard from devs during the Wii U days.
Physical vs digital per title per platform. I assumed it was included, but you mentioned earlier that you don’t release a breakdown by retailer (unless I misunderstood) so I started questioning just how detailed it gets. Seems silly not to include but what do I know.
Basically, given game X sells the same amount of units on PS4/XB1 vs Switch. Is there any trend showing that Switch pushes more physical units? I’ve assumed this to be true, but I don’t recall if that’s ever been confirmed.
I feel like my question gets dumber the more I write.
Edit:
Lol. No wonder I feel dumb. Of course you provide this split since there’s a separate physical and digital report.
Basically, given game X sells the same amount of units on PS4/XB1 vs Switch. Is there any trend showing that Switch pushes more physical units? I’ve assumed this to be true, but I don’t recall if that’s ever been confirmed.
I feel like my question gets dumber the more I write.
Edit:
Lol. No wonder I feel dumb. Of course you provide this split since there’s a separate physical and digital report.
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