Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT5| - It's in RDNA

What do you think could be the memory setup of your preferred console, or one of the new consoles?


  • Total voters
    1,103

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,588
If someone has a One S, Lockheart is a pretty attractive offer. In general, the idea of a 300$ or 350$ console while the other consoles are 499$ is very smart, ask Nintendo. If someone plays AC, COD, FIFA, and Fortnite, why would he spend 499$ on a console in 2020 or 2021? No one here will buy it, but the general public? In 2019 probably over 10m people will buy a 249$ PS4 slim, that's 6 years into the generation. If you launch with a 299$ console, you can get the 3rd or 4th year adopter in the first year; that's could be a very aggressive move.
I don't see why the will buy early .
If they don't care that much improve gfx there is no reason for them to push up there buying habits by years.
Also you forgetting that both of these consoles had sales for $199 and XB even lower for past 2 years .
So $300 and $350 is a fair amount compare to that .
Plus i expect stuff like Fortnite to get cross play so that going to give them even less reason to upgrade .
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,592
I’ve mentioned this before but our arguments on pricing often conflate retail pricing & BOM. I think we need to be clearer which ones we are talking about when we give numbers. For example it’s possible that the PS5/XB2 could be $499 BOM and a loss eaten to make it $399, and next thing you know we’ll have both sets of people arguing about how they were “right” on their pricing guesses.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,588
I’ve mentioned this before but our arguments on pricing often conflate retail pricing & BOM. I think we need to be clearer which ones we are talking about when we give numbers. For example it’s possible that the PS5/XB2 could be $499 BOM and a loss eaten to make it $399, and next thing you know we’ll have both sets of people arguing about how they were “right” on their pricing guesses.
For me Sony BOM would be around $475 to $500 ( i also putting shipping etc etc in that )
What i not certain about is what they going to sell it for .
 

VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,712
Europe
Let's take a look at what the guys building the next PS have to say about this pricing thing. Sony has stated that:

a) PS4 will be the main profit driver for the first few years of the new generation. Profit being the operative word; not revenue, profit.
b) They want and expect to transition players very quickly to the next gen platform.
c) There's also the graph that showed a massive dip in projected division profitability for the FY after the gen launch, and that's noteworthy especially when you take into account their growth in recurring revenues.

A tells me the PS5 won't sell at a profit. It likely won't be very profitable - or at all - after the initial purchases (i.e. game, accessory and PS+ sub).
B tells me they are going for mainstream pricing, cutting as close to no-brainer buy as they can - getting as many people on your new platform as early as you can is important because of the network effect, and they understand that very well.

These things together tell me PS5 will sell at a considerable loss to achieve a mainstream price. $399 and not one cent above that.
This.
 
Feb 10, 2018
11,683
One nice thing about scarlett that's not getting much attention is the fact I can use my xbox one controllers on it.

I wonder if they will sell just the console with cables for people who already have an x1 controller.
 

dgrdsv

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,226
Msk / SPb, Russia
One thing to remember in a discussion about how hardware RT can be is that there's only one RT support tier in DirectX right now - and that's either no support or full support.

One could argue that if there would be some h/w coming relatively soon with less capable support for RT than what current RT h/w has it would already be baked into DX specs since MS usually know these things way in advance and so far we didn't have a "tier 2" in D3D which was less capable than "tier 1".
 

i-Lo

Avenger
Oct 31, 2017
8,510
Not America
User Warned: Inflammatory comment
Saw this yesterday (artist claims this is real time, crafted in UE4) and I would not be surprised to see character fidelity of this quality be in AAA games next gen (given there are very close competitors this gen already) in real time gameplay (not cinematics):







Source - Liam Grice- Senior Character Artist at Supermassive Games

I just hope animation is commensurate with fidelity next generation.

Hey guys. Could we please get everything related to misterxmedia banned from here, like we already have for some other assholes? It might be easy to laugh at him and call him a simple troll, but don't...

*MisterXRacistpost.jpg*
Off topic:

I think this would be a good time to ban this cunt from further discussions, even in jest. Also, what it is with degenerates and their love for Xbox? It was only recently that I saw that guy, jezz or someshit, trying to delegitimize prevalence of homophobia by conflating it with console fanboyism. These companies need to do a better job of dissociating themselves from toxic influencers because the community deserve better reps.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,166
For me Sony BOM would be around $475 to $500 ( i also putting shipping etc etc in that )
What i not certain about is what they going to sell it for .
Personally I think they're going to take a $100 loss either way given the stats they have on his much first-year buyers spend. As for the price, I'm not sure - there's some light evidence of $499, like the Cerny quote and Reiner's word about the devs, but all I'm (90%) sure of right now is that the BOM will be at least $500.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,166
Saw this yesterday (artist claims this is real time, crafted in UE4) and I would not be surprised to see character fidelity of this quality be in AAA games next gen (given there are very close competitors this gen already) in real time gameplay (not cinematics):







Source - Liam Grice- Senior Character Artist at Supermassive Games

I just hope animation is commensurate with fidelity next generation.
This looks glorious and I want it.

Off topic:

I think this would be a good time to ban this cunt from further discussions, even in jest. Also, what it is with degenerates and their love for Xbox? It was only recently that I saw that guy, jezz or someshit, trying to delegitimize prevalence of homophobia by conflating it with console fanboyism. These companies need to do a better job of dissociating themselves from toxic influencers because the community deserve better reps.
Ehhh, I think it can happen on both sides. Someone was saying earlier that Colin Moriarty is a PS fanboy, so there's one.
 

i-Lo

Avenger
Oct 31, 2017
8,510
Not America
Ehhh, I think it can happen on both sides. Someone was saying earlier that Colin Moriarty is a PS fanboy, so there's one.
Off topic:

Yea, and it would be wise for corporations to hire progressive folks to re-examine these companies' portfolios comprising of influencers they officially recognize by way of free gifts and invites to special occasions. It is morally vacuous to claim that they are "woke" by featuring PoC and women in their ads only to turn around and signal boost these regressive bigoted fucks.
 
Jul 26, 2018
67
On the latest episode of his podcast, former IGN editor Colin Moriarty revealed that the PlayStation 5 is more powerful than the Xbox Scarlett, judging from reports of developers who have received the developer kits for both systems. While it’s true that the final specs of consoles are different from the ones seen in the dev kits, there’s a good chance that this report is right, as this isn’t the first time we heard that the Sony next-gen console is going to be the more powerful than Microsoft’s system.
PlayStation 5 Is More Powerful Than Xbox Scarlett, According To Devs

How close are the dev kits to the final specs typically? Do they change wildly or, assuming this statement is accurate, is this a precedent for the final specs of PS5 being more powerful than Xbox? Also, what kind of GPU do devkits come with if they're still researching on it? Are these just prototyped gpus (a small batch AMD manufactured for Sony/MS)?
 

DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
472
Israel
I don't see why the will buy early .
If they don't care that much improve gfx there is no reason for them to push up there buying habits by years.
Also you forgetting that both of these consoles had sales for $199 and XB even lower for past 2 years .
So $300 and $350 is a fair amount compare to that .
Plus i expect stuff like Fortnite to get cross play so that going to give them even less reason to upgrade .
After a year or two these games don’t come out to the previous gen anymore. AC 2014 for instance came only the next gen. Most games in 2021-2022 will come to next gen only and the Anaconda and PS5 will still be 499$.

You can’t deny the attractiveness of a 299$ console. Most people still consume 1080p content and if that’s the only difference between Lockheart and Anaconda/PS5? That’s one hell of a deal for most of the general public.
 

RevengeTaken

Member
Aug 12, 2018
1,277
Saw this yesterday (artist claims this is real time, crafted in UE4) and I would not be surprised to see character fidelity of this quality be in AAA games next gen (given there are very close competitors this gen already) in real time gameplay (not cinematics):







Source - Liam Grice- Senior Character Artist at Supermassive Games

I just hope animation is commensurate with fidelity next generation.



Off topic:

I think this would be a good time to ban this cunt from further discussions, even in jest. Also, what it is with degenerates and their love for Xbox? It was only recently that I saw that guy, jezz or someshit, trying to delegitimize prevalence of homophobia by conflating it with console fanboyism. These companies need to do a better job of dissociating themselves from toxic influencers because the community deserve better reps.
Doesn't look very impressive for AAA next gen to me when we already had something like this in-game not cinematics!



i expect a lot more!
 

Deadlast

Member
Oct 27, 2017
407
Saw this yesterday (artist claims this is real time, crafted in UE4) and I would not be surprised to see character fidelity of this quality be in AAA games next gen (given there are very close competitors this gen already) in real time gameplay (not cinematics):







Source - Liam Grice- Senior Character Artist at Supermassive Games

I just hope animation is commensurate with fidelity next generation.



Off topic:

I think this would be a good time to ban this cunt from further discussions, even in jest. Also, what it is with degenerates and their love for Xbox? It was only recently that I saw that guy, jezz or someshit, trying to delegitimize prevalence of homophobia by conflating it with console fanboyism. These companies need to do a better job of dissociating themselves from toxic influencers because the community deserve better reps.
You shouldn't get your hopes up here. This is part of the Unreal push into movie special effects (ie that starwars demo with raytracing). We won't have rigs powerful enough to push this. But we should have kick ass special effects. Exciting stuff.
 

RoninStrife

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,262
Hey guys. Could we please get everything related to misterxmedia banned from here, like we already have for some other assholes? It might be easy to laugh at him and call him a simple troll, but don't...

Now, Ive seen MrX spew the usual bs/lies and absurd half truths, twist facts etc But this... this is crazy psychotic drivel I never knew he was capable of. He doesn't sound harmless at all. He sounds like a crazy, racist conspiracy theorist. I didn't know how Far right that guys agenda is. wow.
 

PlayerOne

Member
Apr 16, 2018
250
Doesn't look very impressive for AAA next gen to me when we already had something like this in-game not cinematics!



i expect a lot more!
While i think nate looks incredible during cinematics his in game model and shading leaves a lot to be desired. He can look really bad in some lightning conditions and never really approaches these renders during gameplay.
 

i-Lo

Avenger
Oct 31, 2017
8,510
Not America
Doesn't look very impressive for AAA next gen to me when we already had something like this in-game not cinematics!


i expect a lot more!
And that is why I explicitly mentioned, "real time gameplay (not cinematics)".

Outside of cinematics, we have seen one game that comes awfully close those images from another project made in UE4, Days Gone:




Images courtesy of Dumbmugi





Honestly, I really thought that I was looking at a next gen baseline when it saw these, insofar as character model fidelity is concerned.

You shouldn't get your hopes up here. This is part of the Unreal push into movie special effects (ie that starwars demo with raytracing). We won't have rigs powerful enough to push this. But we should have kick ass special effects. Exciting stuff.
Off topic:

Funnily enough, if Deepfakes are proving anything, it is that, that is a cheaper way of doing photo realistic character models right for movies.
 

pagrab

Member
Oct 27, 2017
366
Every time a new generation is on the corner we start to see demos similar to the above UE4 demo which are effectively a taste of one generation ahead of the upcoming one. This deflates my hype a lot...
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,822
Somewhere South
As for the price, I'm not sure - there's some light evidence of $499, like the Cerny quote and Reiner's word about the devs, but all I'm (90%) sure of right now is that the BOM will be at least $500.
I don't think Cerny's quote points at $499 at all, actually. They've said similar things about the PS4 back then. It's all about expectations management, setting a narrative, making people think they're getting a lot of bang for the buck - if they'd get surprised by a sticker price that's lower than expected, that's perfect, consumers love this shit.

Good marketing is all about positive surprises and delight.

A quick question: why does a devkit need more RAM than a retail unit of a console?
You usually need some overhead to run benchmarking and debugging software in parallel. This overhead is, nowadays, much smaller than it's been in the past, in relation to the kind of room you need for game data itself.
 

SoleSurvivor

Member
Oct 27, 2017
420
Sorry if this has been asked before, but..

With PS5 being "fully backward compatible", do we know yet if digital PS3 games (like Scott Pilgrim for example) we have purchased on our PSN accounts be available and playable to owners again on the new system?
 

Chamber

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,925
It'll be $499. This thread is going to continue circling back around to try and justify a lower cost only to end up disappointed.

Saw this yesterday (artist claims this is real time, crafted in UE4) and I would not be surprised to see character fidelity of this quality be in AAA games next gen (given there are very close competitors this gen already) in real time gameplay (not cinematics):







Source - Liam Grice- Senior Character Artist at Supermassive Games

I just hope animation is commensurate with fidelity next generation.
Looks like the next generation of linear adventure games. This is what I expect as a next gen leap from games like Until Dawn and Detroit Become Human.
 

RevengeTaken

Member
Aug 12, 2018
1,277
And that is why I explicitly mentioned, "real time gameplay (not cinematics)".

Outside of cinematics, we have seen one game that comes awfully close those images from another project made in UE4, Days Gone:




Images courtesy of Dumbmugi





Honestly, I really thought that I was looking at a next gen baseline when it saw these, insofar as character model fidelity is concerned.



Off topic:

Funnily enough, if Deepfakes are proving anything, it is that, that is a cheaper way of doing photo realistic character models right for movies.
While i think nate looks incredible during cinematics his in game model and shading leaves a lot to be desired. He can look really bad in some lightning conditions and never really approaches these renders during gameplay.
it looks exact the same during gameplay and cut-scenes. this is in-game model of nate during gameplay

















Cut-scenes model:


but i agree, in some lightning conditions SSR doesn't work nicely!
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,966
Let's take a look at what the guys building the next PS have to say about this pricing thing. Sony has stated that:

a) PS4 will be the main profit driver for the first few years of the new generation. Profit being the operative word; not revenue, profit.
b) They want and expect to transition players very quickly to the next gen platform.
c) There's also the graph that showed a massive dip in projected division profitability for the FY after the gen launch, and that's noteworthy especially when you take into account their growth in recurring revenues.

A tells me the PS5 won't sell at a profit. It likely won't be very profitable - or at all - after the initial purchases (i.e. game, accessory and PS+ sub).
B tells me they are going for mainstream pricing, cutting as close to no-brainer buy as they can - getting as many people on your new platform as early as you can is important because of the network effect, and they understand that very well.

These things together tell me PS5 will sell at a considerable loss to achieve a mainstream price. $399 and not one cent above that.
Good post.

I should mention that a Samsung manufactured die funnily enough kills the Samsung HBM rumor. This would necessitate a Samsung going to TSMC for packaging, which seems very unlikely.

But I absolutely believe a Zen 2 Navi 10 console with SSD can be sold for $399 at retail.

The die size should be in the neighborhood of 320mm^2 as noted and rumored. 16GB of RAM will be comparatively cheaper than PS4 because they don’t need to do clamshell. Prepare for a 9TF system in that case.
 

disco_potato

Member
Nov 16, 2017
435
More important than the way the bandwidth is managed with the hbm plus ddr4 rumor,
It should also use significantly less power than gddr6.
Which means you can push the gpu harder.
How big of a difference are we looking at?
We know gddr6 pulls 2w per chip, not sure what controller pulls. Hbm2 pulls ~20w per 8gb config. Ddr4 would be ~3w per 8gb.
If we look at 5700 vs 5700xt tbp numbers, a 180mhz jump in clocks warrants a 35w increase in tdp, 122w vs 157w.
 

Pheonix

Member
Dec 14, 2018
952
St Kitts
Is it that everyone went to sleep and woke up forgetting how good current gen games look? Running on 1.8TF consoles?

Only the heretic demo and Book of the dead and a few other landscape stuff look "next-gen" to me. And that is more due to the consistently high level of detail across the board that could probably just be attributed to more texture and more RAM. With exception to the heretic demo though. And if anyone thinks next-gen games won't blow that heretic demo out of the water.... then you are in for some pleasant surprises.

Again, pls all just remember all the great stuff we have seen this gen so far runs on a Jaguar CPU, 1.8TF GPU and 5GB of RAM.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,588
it looks exact the same during gameplay and cut-scenes. this is in-game model of nate during gameplay
PICS
but i agree, in some lightning conditions SSR doesn't work nicely!
Thing is UC4 years old by now and i think Ellie looks just as good maybe better in some ways .
Think people underestimating next gen .
Still characters wise i don't think we have for more to go aside from animation and few small things.
 

Colbert

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,580
Germany
I make another break until around the 7th of July as I expect nothing important to happen between now and then. However I will check the progress in pages from time to time.

 
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RevengeTaken

Member
Aug 12, 2018
1,277
~9tflops in 2020 and 12-14tflops in 2023 for mid-gen refresh both fo $399. sounds dissapointing for me!

Thing is UC4 years old by now and i think Ellie looks just as good maybe better in some ways .
Think people underestimating next gen .
Still characters wise i don't think we have for more to go aside from animation and few small things.
The Last of Us part 2's character models looks a gen ahead in my opinion!
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,588
Good post.

I should mention that a Samsung manufactured die funnily enough kills the Samsung HBM rumor. This would necessitate a Samsung going to TSMC for packaging, which seems very unlikely.

But I absolutely believe a Zen 2 Navi 10 console with SSD can be sold for $399 at retail.

The die size should be in the neighborhood of 320mm^2 as noted and rumored. 16GB of RAM will be comparatively cheaper than PS4 because they don’t need to do clamshell. Prepare for a 9TF system in that case.

Well his post did say he expect Sony to sell at a lost .
Anex how much you think sony would be willing to lose.
They lost money on every consoles so far in the early stages .
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,386
The only issue is the lighting in bright daylight and in day shade makes drakes model looks terrible.
While i think nate looks incredible during cinematics his in game model and shading leaves a lot to be desired. He can look really bad in some lightning conditions and never really approaches these renders during gameplay.
it looks exact the same during gameplay and cut-scenes. this is in-game model of nate during gameplay

















Cut-scenes model:


but i agree, in some lightning conditions SSR doesn't work nicely!
IIn uncharted ingame models are the same as cutscenes the problem is that the SSS is broken during day-times.
I can explain to you why it is happening during daylight and not by nights where SSS is fine.
The SSS in Uncharted 4 is not a one equation SSS where it looks the sme regardless of the lighting condition but mostly is dependable according to light sources. You know skin irl look diffrent according to different lighting conditions. By night it is applied through different spotlights which are abundant, you get a local light just on top of Nathan and characters and it applies SSS on them from local spots an then you go past the previous spotlight to fall under anotehr one by night so you won't have a problem for SSS at all.

During daylight, you only have the sun as global light source which is different from abundant night local spotlights. sometimes the sunlight is occluded by some obstacles and since Uncharted has a static GI, there is no dynamic bounce of dimmer bounced lights from sunrays occluded by obstacles so the skin is not reacting to such non existent dynamic bounced rays. That is why SSS gets broken and not applied during some scenes in daylight.

This is happening also in RE2 Remake and even during night scenes after you go past some local spotlights and you don't fall under a close local spotlight but no one is screaming that for RE2 Reamke.

I don't thin this can be solved in TLOU2 if they are using the same techs especially that they didn't fix or use another tech for motion blur (still the same broken motion blur with ghosting from Uncharted 4).

They can fix this on PS5 by using dynamic GI with ray-tracing coupled with a non fixed SSS equations which will give even more subtle effects where skin looks different accroding to different lighting conditions
 

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,097
If you're targeting a certain resolution at the high end, it doesn't matter much if a lower end SKU can run it at a lower (dynamic) resolution.
Certainly not an expert here but I assume it'd need the very same CPU and the very same memory solution to avoid any draw-backs besides a lower resolution. I don't think that would have been the case here (as in: only difference would have been a much more potent GPU of the high end SKU).
 

Mack

Member
May 30, 2019
152
~9tflops in 2020 and 12-14tflops in 2023 for mid-gen refresh both fo $399. sounds dissapointing for me!


The Last of Us part 2's character models looks a gen ahead in my opinion!
No mid-gen refreshes, please. I think even Sony stated some time ago that they will not go with another Pro version. I'm all in for the form factor refresh, slim versions, but don't want any of that mid-gen upgrade bullshit. And this comes from the mouth, erm, keyboard of a guy who owns Xbox One X and PS4 Pro.
 

Oluasc

Be more dog!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,759
...
PlayStation 5 Is More Powerful Than Xbox Scarlett, According To Devs

How close are the dev kits to the final specs typically? Do they change wildly or, assuming this statement is accurate, is this a precedent for the final specs of PS5 being more powerful than Xbox? Also, what kind of GPU do devkits come with if they're still researching on it? Are these just prototyped gpus (a small batch AMD manufactured for Sony/MS)?
All those site replying the same site based in nothing.
"According to devs" and no one of those devs said the specs of the PS5 or Scarlett? lmao.

But yeah, not much different from the consumer product, probably only more ram.
 
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Travaughn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,906
Do we anticipate that Sony will have an official limited time trade-in campaign where owners of current gen consoles can trade their consoles for a sizeable credit towards a PS5? Likely a tiered system where XB1X = PS4 PRO > PS4 > XB1 in terms of trade in value It's gives customers the impression that they are saving a great deal of money and assists in getting them to adopt the new gen.

I'm not sure how this would impact this them financially but I thought that any damages could be mitigated by users being prompted to use their saved dollars to purchase games and a number of subscription services. I saw this as a way of them subsidizing costs if their console really is $450-$500.

So good idea, bad idea?
 

Red Tapir

Member
May 10, 2019
63
My hot take on next-gen graphics is that we've reached a point where the main drawback is funding, not tech.
As such, I wouldn't expect games to look massively more detailed than they are now.

It's not even a matter of Nathan Drake looking "ok", he looks absolutely phenomenal.
Anything beyond that and you're wasting money imo, especially when art direction, design and estethics can do so much more.