Euro just went significantly west...UKMET was the main reason I was still worried, but they have now significantly shifted east as well.
This is also true. The larger and stronger the storm is the more powerful steering currents need to be in order to dramatically cause a turn like the one predicted.Alright I’ll throw my two cents in. This storm is much stronger than forecasted. Historically, when a storm is stronger than forecasted, its “heavier” latitude-wise and therefore it will take longer to lift north as the models indicate. This is critical to its interaction with Florida.
in this case these "alt" gov accounts popped up after trump took office to be criticize him as the fed was censoring the official ones. They're not associated to the altright and came about before the alt right movement came into the mainstream after trumps election. They just have very unfortunate twitter handles nowCould we... maybe NOT post things from Twitter with "alt-" anything in the username? Could we just not?
I'm sure Trump will show up somewhere in the next weekfor a photo opto throw some paper towels at people.
Isn't already looking a bit more southerly than that starting point?Seems like that is the only model showing that W/SW dip, everyone else is showing a swift turn up and out to the NE
I hope they make it out ok, that looks really bad though.
If that track stays true, looks like the eastern seaboard dodged a bullet comparatively
Broward peeps, you shuttering? I have mostly impact glass, but a few still use a few panels. I'm not worried about shuttering everything for 50-60mph sustained.
I can never make out with these maps. Is that Broward that's now in the cone?
When it's that close you need to watch anyway. If the track is even off by 30 miles it could be the difference between a landfall or not.If that track stays true, looks like the eastern seaboard dodged a bullet comparatively
The tip of it almost, they keep saying it's West Palm area but a tiny shift and Broward is in itI can never make out with these maps. Is that Broward that's now in the cone?
Barely, but it's the windspeed for us right now. Based on current models, we won't get a direct hit, but Broward will most likely get hurricane force winds, either sustained or gusts. Maybe enough to knock out power and toss debris. We don't know yet.I can never make out with these maps. Is that Broward that's now in the cone?
Uh that sounds bad...Some weather folks are saying the models are starting to show a small ridge appearing from GA to NC, depending on its strength, this may push Dorian more to the SW. Possible reason Euro began a large shift west for the short term modeling.
It hasn’t dodged anything yet, the westmost fourth is still a possible track, remember that’s not the effected area with the track in the center, but rather the range of all possible tracks with it being possible it brushes a huge chunk of the east coast of floridaIf that track stays true, looks like the eastern seaboard dodged a bullet comparatively
Barely, Lighthouse point area is in itI can never make out with these maps. Is that Broward that's now in the cone?
I'm prepared mentally for tropical storm winds. Hurricane force winds worry me because it's not specific, especially with the wind speeds of this hurricane... like saying hurricane force winds while on the periphery of the storm when the winds of this hurricane are 185mph are terrifying because I don't know what to expect.Barely, but it's the windspeed for us right now. Based on current models, we won't get a direct hit, but Broward will most likely get hurricane force winds, either sustained or gusts. Maybe enough to knock out power and toss debris. We don't know yet.
I think "hurricane force" is between 75-110, and anything over that they'll refer to as "major hurricane force."Tropical storm is 39-75mph with hurricane force winds that can be anything from 75-185 at the moment...
But they don't seem to specify expectation of winds for watches. They only specify when labeling the actual system.I think "hurricane force" is between 75-110, and anything over that they'll refer to as "major hurricane force."
And guess who's in that small tip. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯The tip of it almost, they keep saying it's West Palm area but a tiny shift and Broward is in it
I get that, I’m just saying if it stays on the track.It hasn’t dodged anything yet, the westmost fourth is still a possible track, remember that’s not the effected area with the track in the center, but rather the range of all possible tracks with it being possible it brushes a huge chunk of the east coast of florida
So this is a poor understanding of what the map is showing. Don’t focus on the dots or the center of the cone, the center isn’t a higher likelihood than the rest of the cone.If that track stays true, looks like the eastern seaboard dodged a bullet comparatively