Exactly a week after George Floyd's death I wrote up my take on the situation. (This was back when nobody had any idea wtf was going on). I'd give myself 7/10. Mistakes: - Overestimated BLM centralization & overall volatility - Underestimated the democratic party Not bad!pic.twitter.com/J0SVRpWkfC
I definitely completely lost my cool and thought there is a 25-30% chance civil war is imminent. In hindsight that was high, but I don't think I was off by an order of magnitude. Posting these predictions/evaluations publicly is a great way to keep oneself honest.