Timur Valiev vs. Martin Day

Thanks Stephen and Hidef. 
Unfortunately however I have very little to offer in the way of intuition or opinion. I can't give logical arguments about a predicted result, but I can talk numbers. With some colleagues we tried betting on UFC events for a time without much success, but then chose to rely on stats and maths only (we've a few skills between us in that department). I go into it on our site, but in sum our system is designed to remove human intuition completely, which is usually flawed in this game.
MMA is unpredictable, but the information is there to make it more predictable than chance. Every prop bet we've made on the betmma.tips site was calculated by an algorithm we created. Hopefully it'll work into the future, but it certainly works with historical data going back 2 years. It remains to be seen if it has a long term predictive value, but so far so good.
Of course, you can be there to watch if it all comes crashing down.
I hope to change your mind Stephen, that numbers and stats/odds analysis is ultimately where successful betting lives, at least in this sport.

And no more shameless promoting, I promise, haha

I do agree some numbers can be used when predicting MMA like the previous example you used with Kape and Pantoja going to decision. I personally myself bet that line because I thought it was off. But for other reasons than probably yours. The place it differs from the other sports that you can use algorithms to predict outcomes is that there are no come backs. The fight is timed sure but it can be stopped at any point unlike any other sport. So ML will be off all the time in this sport just for that reason. For example say NFL, If the Chiefs as a favorite say -200 go down 14-21 points by halftime. No matter what they still have a chance to come back and justify that ML. In MMA a KO or Submission from a crazy punch or a lazy takedown attempt and that -200 is done. Theres no next quarter and potential for comeback. So in that sense some numbers won't apply when it comes to the crazy variance of MMA. For that you do need a little Intuition and tape study. The best example of this was Michael Johnson on this card. Throw his numbers out the damn window the second they are released and just bet on his opponent. All his metrics are great but if you WATCH Michael Johnson than you would know his best MMA skill is ripping defeat from the jaws of victory lol. and he's a dead fish once he hits his back. Guida ML was free money if you watched Michael Johnson tape. No numbers applied there. 

* Edited at 02.09.2021, 10:40 PM ET *

@Killbot2000

I agree with @HiDefff again here. Stats are useful but they are no substitute for knowledge and experience. If for instance you have two fighters who both go the distance in most of their fights then of course the stats and logical interpretation align to say that it will go the distance but if it's one stronger fighter who often goes the distance against a fighter who is weaker on paper but can end it all with one shot then that's where you have to study the fighters and make up your own mind as to how likely it is for that shot to land or whether or not the "favourite" fighter can nullify that threat, especially if the "favourite" has never fought against someone like their opponent before. If you're making money with your approach, then good for you and I wish you the best but I just feel that it's unwise to rely on stats alone. 

* Edited at 02.10.2021, 10:56 AM ET *