Can Ukraine Really Defeat Russia? – Over the past few days, a flurry of senior leaders in both Ukraine and Washington have issued defiant claims of not merely resisting Russian aggression, but pushing towards outright victory. While such aspirations are entirely understandable, it is unwise to set policy seeking a preferred outcome if there does not exist a rational path by which Ukraine could accomplish that objective. At present, most indicators, fundamentals of war, and current battlefield trendlines support the prospect of a Ukrainian defeat.
At a speech on Monday on Ukraine’s “Victory Day,” commemorating the World War II defeat of Nazi Germany, President Volodymyr Zelensky categorically declared that just as Ukraine defeated its enemy in 1945, “we have no doubt that we will win” the war against Russia. Zelensky’s foreign minister went a step further, adding that Kyiv wasn’t merely seeking to win the Battle of Donbas, but defined “victory for us in this war will be the liberation of” all Ukrainian territories. There has been no shortage of Western voices supporting this idea – and in one case, escalating the war.
And that’s not all. In an address to the Ukrainian parliament last week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that Ukraine’s war with Russia was a straightforward case of “good versus evil,” and that “Ukraine will win; Ukraine will be free.” On Saturday, Rep. Seth Moulton said the United States should not merely help Ukraine defend itself, but openly declared the U.S. was “fundamentally at war” with Russia, via proxy, and “its important that we win.” One would think that all these increasingly optimistic statements were borne out of tangible evidence that Russia is losing. Instead, nearly the opposite is happening.
In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines believes Putin “is preparing for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine” and still has aspirations beyond the Battle of Donbas. Haines said he thought the Russian leader was “likely” to order some level of a national mobilization to support such goals. Evidence on the ground supports such a likelihood and helps explain why Putin is likely to make that move.
After the well-chronicled disaster of Putin’s opening round of attacks in late February and early March, the Russian military has made a number of effective moves to reorient their efforts, correct tactical and operational deficiencies, and press towards attainable military objectives. Over the past month-plus, Russia has translated those changes into methodical, if slow, battlefield success.
In mid-April, Russia captured the critical transportation hub of Izyum near the northern shoulder of the Donbas lines. Just days ago, after nearly a two-month battle, Putin’s troops captured another key city in northern Donbas that controls several essential road junctions in Popasnaya. Kremlin forces have now pushed deeper into Severdonetsk, putting Ukrainian troops at risk at Lysychansk, just to the southwest of Severdonetsk.
Russia appears to be using tactics that mimic what worked for them in Mariupol: surrounding a city with ground troops, cutting off Ukrainian forces’ ability to get reinforcements (or food, water, and fuel), then relentlessly pounding Ukrainian positions with artillery, rocket fire, and airstrikes, progressively shrinking the ring around the city.
Eventually, Russian troops move in with infantry and armor to strike the defenders when they are at their weakest, capturing the city. The pattern has proven effective and is presently being reprised in numerous Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbas. Russia’s strategy in the Donbas is coming into sharper relief with the capture of each major town, and it doesn’t bode well for Kyiv.
There is a pocket-forming around the Ukrainian troops in the northern shoulder of the Donbas. Russia is seeking to surround the UAF troops in this pocket by saturating key Ukrainian strongholds with heavy bombardment, attempting to peel off more cities on the outside of the pocket, progressively forcing UAF defenders either further west – or trapping them in the pocket and then destroying them by fire and later ground troops.
After taking Izyum, Popasnaya, and moving on Severdonetsk, Russia is now heavily investing Lysychansk, Kramatorsk, and Slaviansk, each a city of 100,000 or more. There are tens of thousands of Ukraine’s best, most experienced troops manning the frontlines in the Donbas. If Russia successfully takes enough cities there, cutting the UAF troops off, they can reprise their bloody tactics used to destroy Mariupol.
Russia will seek to surround the defenders on the northern shoulder of the Donbas and slowly starve them of supplies while mercilessly pounding them with heavy weapons. If the northern shoulder is taken by Russia, the remainder of the UAF positions in the central and southern parts of the Donbas –already under relentless Russian fire – could become untenable.
Whether Putin has enough troops, ammunition, and time to complete the destruction of the UAF positions in the Donbas without mobilizing some portion of its reserve forces is an open question. What is clear, however, is that Russia’s current operations are slowly strangling Ukrainian troops in the Donbas and that despite optimistic rhetoric out of Kyiv and Western capitals, the battle is trending towards a Russian tactical success, possibly within two months.
Militarily speaking, there is very little hope that even all the promised support of heavy weapons and ammunition from the West can be delivered to the front, the Ukrainian troops adequately trained, and firepower brought to bear in time to change the course.
There is always the possibility that Russia may run out of steam before completing the encirclement, that Ukraine is able to drag the battle out beyond two months, and that a stalemate could be won by Kyiv. But that falls more in the category of “hope” and is a poor foundation for basing expectations. By ignoring these battlefield realities, the West is setting the stage for potentially compounding its problems.
Ukraine’s and Western leaders continue making statements that lead their publics to believe that things are getting better, that the war is trending in their favor, and that soon the Western-promised heavy weapons will stop the Russian advance. That remains at best a distant prospect. Basing policy on the expectation of that unlikely (but highly preferred) outcome rather than the realistic possibility that Russia could take the Donbas is unwise and dangerous. Consider the ramifications of this unwillingness to face hard truths.
With @CNN‘s @biannagolodryga & @jillrussia examining latest in #RussiaUkraineWar developments, Mariupol & Azovstal situation + US intel help to Kyiv. @defpriorities https://t.co/SOS13z3R90
— Daniel L. Davis (@DanielLDavis1) May 6, 2022
By continuing to seek a military victory in Ukraine, Ukraine’s troops will continue fighting, no negotiated settlement will be realistically sought, and most likely Russian troops continue making progress. As a result, more Ukrainian civilians and troops will continue to be killed and wounded, more cities destroyed, and the economic and food crises – for both Ukraine and the world – will worsen. The most likely outcome will not change (a negotiated settlement, not a Ukrainian military victory), but the cost to Kyiv will be much, much worse.
For the United States and the West, every day this war continues, the risk continues that through someone’s miscalculation, some accident, or just a foolish act by one side or the other results in a direct clash between Russia and NATO, trigging an Article 5 situation that could drag the United States into a war with a nuclear superpower. However altruistic it may be to want to help Ukraine defend itself from this Russian invasion, there is nothing at stake in Eastern Europe that is worth getting drawn into a potential nuclear war with Russia; a war from which we may not survive.
Service members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fire a Javelin anti-tank missile during drills at a training ground in an unknown location in Ukraine, in this handout picture released February 18, 2022. Ukrainian Joint Forces Operation Press Service/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY/File Photo
Gambling that current battlefield trends don’t hold, hoping that Ukraine can hold on in the Donbas, and believing that UAF will eventually drive Russia back to its country, do the people of Ukraine a disservice. Even if it works out that way – an improbable prospect – it would take years to accomplish and result in such a staggering loss of Ukrainian life that it would be a pyrrhic victory. The better course is to engage in negotiations to do whatever it takes to end the fighting, end the killing of Ukrainian people, and hasten the day when rebuilding can start. However, continuing to base policies on pride and hope will almost certainly cause thousands more preventable deaths in Ukraine.
Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis1.
Alex
May 10, 2022 at 3:48 pm
Jim Chambers (Fergie Chambers) – a journalist from NY spoke about how he SAW the attacks of Ukrainian fascists on peaceful Ukrainians. He told how he SAW what horrors the Bandera Nazis were doing to the Ukrainians. He said that food and medicine appeared when the Russian Liberators came.
He told how he SAW Nazi paraphernalia wherever the military of Ukraine abandoned their positions (swastikas, Mein Kampf books, paintings by Hitler, Bandera, etc.).
He SAW how opponents of the regime of the Ukrainian authorities were detained, tortured and killed. He told how the people of Ukraine are waging their struggle for existence and for peace without Bandera Nazis. He spoke about how the Russian liberators help civilians and the Ukrainians ask the Russians not to leave. The Ukrainians are upset that the Russians came late, they should have come earlier.
He said: “Our American weapons have only exacerbated the useless bloodshed in a battle that the Ukrainian fascists can never win. I am ashamed to carry an American passport with me. The world desperately needs a Russian victory: at the end of Ukrainian Nazism and at the end of the American NATO empire. World needs victory for freedom.”
Nancye
May 10, 2022 at 4:15 pm
Please choose a country you are happy with, &, park yourself there.
benj
May 10, 2022 at 5:45 pm
He a well known paedophile and sex tourist. He has been decorated by the Russians for the services he has provided to them. Wanted for possible war crimes. Labelled as a Lord Haw Haw.
Hoodun
May 11, 2022 at 2:13 am
Well, it’s apparent at this point the Russian army is not solely after the Bandera Nazis. AND that the Russian soldiers and their torture, rape, and killing has not been welcomed by a single Ukrainian civilian. So please do some research and get your head out of your ass.
RC
May 12, 2022 at 2:55 pm
Do you really think all that paraphernalia and bullshit were really being lugged around by any army? Please, paintings of Hitler? And what is really sad is you believe that simple minded bullshit.
Tomas
May 12, 2022 at 2:57 pm
Russian “liberators” murdering civilians to include children is just a tradition that continues. Waving the “Nazi” flag is not working anymore. You are just an insignificant Russian troll who has nothing better to do with his free time. Actions speak louder than words. The Russians continue to rape, pillage and loot and nothing has changed since WWII. Putin’s Russia lacks civility, lacks a moral spine and will start withering away. China will move in. Just remember Putin’s Russia formed a pact with the Nazis in 1939. Stalin himself called his NKVD chief, Beria his very own “Himmler”. The real Nazis are Putin and his trolls. You are one of them and you are pathetic!
Jim
May 12, 2022 at 3:42 pm
Pls tell let Jimmy its Ok if he wants to surrender his US passport… Poor thing he knows life in a Putin/Ping dueling Hitlers on steriods life would be so so much better… Pls Jimmy leave ASAP no one in the USA will miss U, I promise…
Abraham Lincoln
May 12, 2022 at 4:44 pm
Sure, Alex. Sure. And monkeys flew out of their butts, right?
sony
May 12, 2022 at 9:26 pm
Looks like commenters Nancye, benj, Hoodun, RC, Thomas, Jim, & Abraham Lincoln are members of CIA demotion / propaganda crew.
Alex
May 10, 2022 at 3:49 pm
Graham William Phillips is an outstanding British journalist who objectively and unbiasedly covers events in Ukraine.
He is in a war zone and interviews all sides. He confirms the existence of Bandera Nazis who brutally torture and kill Ukrainians just because they do not want to see Bandera Nazis in their country.
He confirms that the Ukrainians are asking the Russian liberators not to leave them anymore and not to leave.
It is interesting to see how Graham interviews Aiden Aislin, a Briton who fought on the side of Ukraine as part of the Nazi Azov Battalion and was taken prisoner in Mariupol.
The truth will always see the world thanks to such professionals, and not propagandists, who sometimes have never been to Ukraine and are thousands of miles away.
No Nazism. We – free people will win.
Abraham Lincoln
May 12, 2022 at 4:45 pm
How much they paying you?
Tom
May 10, 2022 at 4:03 pm
Alex, are you being paid by Vlad to pump out garbage?
julia
May 10, 2022 at 7:08 pm
Putin is still getting millions of $$ for his oil every single day, so hi could hire tons of trolls in different parts of the world. Some of them are quite sophisticated liars, but Alex is not. His propaganda looks like at least 80 years old. He is a bit too dumb 🙂
Brian of Nazareth
June 2, 2022 at 9:18 am
Not for long. Putin’s oil pipeline to the EU is now an eye dropper. Even the gains he gets in the Russian loving Dumbass region makes me wanna fall asleep. Talk about an eye dropper!
Freeborn John
May 10, 2022 at 4:24 pm
The M777 just arrived this week prior to which the Russians had a 20:1 artillery advantage. Ukraine now has longer range and more accurate artillery in place which will eliminate the Russian artillery over the next month. Russia will be going backwards in the Donbas after that.
Alex
May 10, 2022 at 5:59 pm
The US will simply lose its old junk. As it was with all the NATO equipment that Russia is destroying in Ukraine.
exnavynuke
May 12, 2022 at 11:20 am
Alex, the M777 is the exact opposite of “old junk”.
I could explain further, but since it doesn’t have a hammer and sickle stamped to the side the effort would be wasted.
Ebola
May 12, 2022 at 2:01 pm
IF YOU DISAGREE WITH ME AND DON”T BELIEVE MUH NARRATIVE I WILL CALL YOU A COMMUNIST! You are a clown. Typical navy tard blah blah-ing about an 54 year old gun upgraded 20 years ago. If they were so indispensable we wouldn’t be dumping them.
Alex
May 10, 2022 at 4:24 pm
Zelensky is a Kremlin agent.
So in just two months:
1. Actively extorted money from the West.
2. Strengthened the ruble.
3. In addition to the Crimea, he gave Donbass to Russia.
4.. Turned off the gas at the whole of Europe, sending it to the Middle Ages.
5. Ruined the pockets of drivers, farmers, entrepreneurs and manufacturers in the EU and the US.
6. Since the beginning of the special operation, almost all major competitors from Russia have left, making room for Russian entrepreneurs.
7. Begging for so many weapons that even Scholz said that the Bundeswehr was running out of weapons “for himself.”
8. He collected all the crap of the Ukrainian Nazi subculture – tattooed Nazis, outcasts, idiots, maniacs, murderers from Europe and other countries in one place, where the Russians kill them in batches and promptly deliver them to Bandera.
9. United the Russian people around their leader. Russia has never known such powerful support for the actions of the President and his cabinet during all the terms of his reign.
10. He sent into emigration the entire corrupt beau monde of the Russian stage and cinema, with pockets full of “wishes” from the grateful Russian people.
Never before has Russia been as good as under Zelensky.
Joe Comment
May 10, 2022 at 7:12 pm
Alex: If this is all so great for Russia, why not credit Putin for it? Instead we’re always told it’s the Ukrainians who manage to be “Nazis” with a Jewish president, or Biden who somehow is simultaneously an evil mastermind and mentally decrepit, or the “Genghis hordes” of those fearsome Belgian and Danish NATO forces swarming toward the east with plans to offer Ukraine a Membership Action Plan maybe sometime in the next thirty years or so.
Tony
May 11, 2022 at 11:01 pm
There were lots of articles about Nazis in Ukraine before the war. Congress tried to eliminate USA arms going to the Azov brigade in 2015 but the Pentagon talked them out of it. But they ultimately did it in 2018. There hasn’t been a single article since Zelensky took office.aboit him eliminating Nazis from Ukraine. In fact he has joked about them at an awards ceremony and noted that Azov is some of their best fighters and also said “they are what they are”.
Louigi
June 2, 2022 at 4:50 pm
Russian fascist Neo Nazi Barbarian scum filthy in bred atrocity committing Mungrels and pieces of shit on leg are detested all over the world every hates Russian barbarian scum race,especially the tin tyrant head of Communist Terrorist state Russia Puking pu-itler Putrid Putin the Cockerell murdering bustard. NUKE THE SCUM BURY RUSSIAN BASTARDS NOW.
Hoodun
May 11, 2022 at 2:18 am
@Alex, you are a text-book Russian who has been brainwashed by decades of authoritarian state controlled media. I truly feel sorry for you.
Joseph
May 10, 2022 at 4:31 pm
Did you drink the Kool-aide or just pull stuff out of your ass? Every day the Russian becomes weaker and Ukraine gets stronger. This is a dream come true for America and the West. The end of Putin and the belittling of a country with the GOP of Spain (soon to be Greece).
Tom
May 10, 2022 at 4:54 pm
Alex, Your Russian Army is an embarrassment…paper tigers, but they’re good at war crimes, like murder, rape and destruction of hospitals. You must be so proud of the thugs you extoll…
Alex
May 10, 2022 at 5:58 pm
1. I have the Great Polish Army. Remember this.
2. Independent journalists hit you with the truth and win. Your Ministry of Lies of Ukraine cannot even do anything, although they are supported by liars and propagandists from the USA and Britain. The world sees the truth. Bandera Nazis are sent to hell to Bandera. Every day, the flags of Donetsk, Russia and Chechnya fly in new settlements. Every new day.
Tom
May 10, 2022 at 6:06 pm
Putin has made Russia a third world country!
Tony
May 12, 2022 at 9:13 pm
It is too early to say if Putin made Russia a third world country. But not too early to say that Biden, Johnson and the other “you must fight to the last Ukrainian” warmongers have turned Ukraine into a third world country.
Commentar
May 10, 2022 at 5:16 pm
Ukraine is finished. Kaput. Just like germany in 1944 and early 1945. Shaking and kicking in its death throes.
There are many parallels between 1940s nazi germany and today’s neo-nazist ukraine.
In the forties, germany decided to throw its lot with imperialist japan, signing the tripartite pact leading to the war with US 8th Air Force.
Today, ukraine has decided to sleep in the same bed as US the rampaging global conquistador.
In 1944/45 Germany was awash with new weapons called wunderwaffe even as its cities and population were being rapidly smashed to oblivion.
Today, ukraine is being promised huge or even galactic-sized arms supply of weapons even as cities and infrastructure are being turned into so much rubble.
When US & NATO weapons pile up sky-high at ukrainian airports and/or train stops, and can’t be dstributed quickly enough, they become magnets for tactical nuclear strikes.
Will berlin or oslo or warsaw or london or brussels offer themselves as alternative magnets for nuke missiles ?
NAH ! YOUR FATE AIN’T MINE.
What we are seeing or witnessing is a neo-fascist entity thrashing and screaming in its death throes, because like hitler, zelenskiyy picked the wrong side to fight.
Fighting imperialism living on the other end of the atlantic is much safer than fighting a nuclear power whose red line has been openly trespassed by biden, the old oldened dementia-crippled 80-year-old stiff from the US beltway a.k.a. babylon-on-the-potomac.
Don T
May 10, 2022 at 5:40 pm
Putin has an untrained army using antique weapons and led by fools. He has transported Russia back into the Stone Age relative to modern economies that will last for generations of isolation from western technology, investment and stature. Russia is now officially a third world country.
If Putin decided to use nukes would his military be as anxious to die? Putin has been saber rattling nukes for years and it turns out most of their equipment is poorly maintained WW2 junk, but with his own army refusing orders, sabotaging equipment and deserting who will be left to carry on? Don’t forget all those body bags containing al the Russian soldiers that Putin leaves on the battlefield.
Putin won’t confront NATO for fear of having his army destroyed in Ukraine by a far superior force.
A brain drain of young, well educated people points to a dismal future for those who are forced to remain. Do you miss Micky D yet?
exnavynuke
May 12, 2022 at 3:43 pm
… and yet Germany stil exists…
Moskva
May 10, 2022 at 5:17 pm
The author is suggesting that Ukraine should pursue negotiations instead of resisting.
From the start of this war i believe the negotiations were not being very useful. The reason for that is the ridiculous goals the RF was pursuing : denazification, demilitarization etc. When one negotiating party states goals like those, i think its reasonable to believe the negotiations are a scam, intended to draw time.
I don’t see any indications that RF is a reliable negotiating partner and they will take as much as they can if they get the chance.
I agree with the author that the forecast looks grim if Ukraine continues fighting, but rolling over and practically surrendering to the RF is making sure one thing, ironically, will happen: a fascist RF regime calling the shots in Ukraine. At this point im not sure whats worse, the RF as a overlord or an incredibly costly war and try to preserve independence. I don’t envie the decision Ukraine has to make. Slava Ukraina
Lars
May 12, 2022 at 7:30 pm
Thank you Moskva for putting my exactly same thoughts to the paper. So the author writes that Ukraine cant win and the only alternative is negotiations. Really? With a dictator sitting since 1999, without true elections, no opposition and no free press. There is no basis for negotiations at all unless they want to become a Putin puppet state and let Russia deport 100.000 inteligencia to Sibiria.
Tony
May 12, 2022 at 9:23 pm
Russia also had Ukraine as a neutral state not joining NATO. NATO (USA) does not need Ukraine as a member. And Zelensky said in a CNN interview he was told they would not be joining NATO but keep pretending it was a possibility. So yes, the Russia/USA negotiations were not very useful when the USA wouldn’t even concede on the one issue they were in agreement with.
de-Nazification would not be considered an unreasonable demand at most times, but in the cartoon good/bad world of war, even Nazis get a pass now in the west.
Edward
May 10, 2022 at 5:50 pm
I do agree that the only resolution is as you say “Negotiation”. Unfortunately for Ukraine it will be negotiation with a gun to the head. My concern about your comments that the only way to curb the loss of life and distruction of Ukraine is to negotiate, will that stop Putin there… If he gets the east will that satisfy him. He took Crimea which was not his to take and nothing happened, there was no repocussion for that invasion.Now if he takes the Donbas and eastern Ukraine, WHAT WILL HAPPEN… Nothing, again there will be no repocussion as in Crimea. So now Putin knows that he can do whatever he wants with no repocussion. What is to stop him from taking the whole of Ukraine and any other country he chooses? NOTHING is the answer…. So no, negotiation won’t work as all it does is lead us to the next Putin invasion which he can get away with….
Tony
May 11, 2022 at 11:18 pm
All the sanctions are not “no repercussion”.
Joe Tierney
May 10, 2022 at 6:47 pm
Daniel Davis is a most refreshing, albeit depressing, voice amongst the vast echo chamber of Western propaganda and baseless wishful thinking.
Realism is so much better than the idealistic pap that permeates the Western media – I want the truth, because lies and plastic hope is for the mindless, not for those who have the intelligence and courage to handle the truth and to make of it what they can in this awful situation – a situation largely of our making. Yes – we ‘created’ Putin in all our mindless, shortsighted triumphalism engaged in since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. By our rabid insistence on having our own way around the world, and very significantly in Russia’s near abroad, we positively strengthened the hands of those is Russia who say the US is the evil global hegemon that must be dethroned at any cost. We thereby, in effect, lifted Putin to power in Russia, sowing the seeds of this global crisis in which two world views, that of the West and that of the East, are vying for dominance. Ukraine is the focal point in this global conflict, and a win by Russia will bring to birth that world order which is aimed at ending the reign of America and Europe.
It is a world order I loathe and fear – but historians will correctly say that we did it to ourselves in all our arrogance and shortsighted stupidity.
So I hope that somehow, some way, Daniel turns out to be wrong. But I don’t think there’s much chance of that. Western leaders are rushing headlong into their own, self-made quagmire, without the strategic intelligence to avoid the trap. I suppose that Mr. Putin and his Chinese counterpart fully understand this, and as opportunists, will make full use of the situation to bring their world order to birth.
JMIII
May 12, 2022 at 12:03 pm
First issue, would people in the US opt to negotiate if some nation decided to just grab a chunk of American Territory or would we mobilize to fight a bloody war to get it back? The Ukrainians are in a similar spot. We saw what letting a Dictator get his “reasonable little bit” resulted in in 1938. The dictator is not sated by this “little bit” and goes to bite ever larger chunks until nations realize he must be stopped.
I agree with you that we basically blew a golden opportunity with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Instead of truly welcoming them as friends and honestly trying to help build their country into a functioning member of the “West”, we rubbed their noses in their defeat and basically helped the current regime of Oligarchs “rape” the nation. Much as the harsh Versailles Treaty pathed the way for Hitler’s rise, the post Cold War neglect of relations with Russia laid the path for the rise of Putin and his never-ending quest to make Russia respectable again.
El Retiro
May 12, 2022 at 3:20 pm
Davis is wrong. His policy would have given Europe to Hitler without opposition. Wrong then, wrong now.
speedster
May 10, 2022 at 7:02 pm
In 1944/45 Germany was awash with wunderwaffe, and then the usa saved the world through being the arsenal of democracy. Not only did the usa rescue France from the nazis, but the usa rescued the russians from defeat by the nazis.
How did the magnificent usa rescue the russians from being beaten by the nazis, you may ask, well the usa supplied virtually all the transport trucks and locomotives to Stalin. I should also give credit to the magnificent UK who sent weapons and aid to russia via the Bering sea convoys. to
Now Russia the inherited of the failed socialist regime of Stalin had decided to copy the invasion tactics of the national socialists (nazis) of Germany.
speedster
May 10, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Original invasion force 140,000
Dead and wounded 80,000
Survivors 60,000
Fresh troops. 40,000
Total 100,000
Dead and wounded 20,000 20% 20/80 ratio
Current Russian military efficiency reduced from 100% to 20%.
Current Russian weapon efficiency reduced from 100% to 4%.
They Call Me Mister T
May 11, 2022 at 3:34 am
That’s incredible, speedster. Ukraine claimed 25650 Russian combat losses on May 9th- and now we’re up to 80000? Surely we must check for WMD use. Interestingly, BBC News Russia claims to have documented the deaths of 2210 members of the Russian forces.
Yet for all the body counts and (snerk) military efficiency gradings, the Russians have taken and held Kherson, Mariupol, and Melitopol. Meanwhile, Ukraine has had to end gas shipments through Sokhranivka. But how is that possible when the Russians are doing so badly?!
speedster
May 10, 2022 at 7:29 pm
The author is pessimistic, it is clear from previous encounters with ukraine military that the West is shocked by how abysmal and antiquated Russian military equipment is. Russia is number 136 in the global corruption perception index. It is clear that the corruption has affected the lack of quality of Russian equipment.A corrupt government will always take its cut out of the defence budget.
While Ukrainian momentum is on an upward curve, emboldened by superior western wespon, the Russian curve is down, as their forces discover the degraded equipment given to them. The Italian economist 20/80 ratio confirms military efficiency only 20%.
David Chang
May 10, 2022 at 10:07 pm
“victory for us in this war will be the liberation of all Ukrainian territories.”
So Zelensky is the president of Ukraine communist, he is same as Putin.
Why should we help Ukraine, another socialism country, just like Russia?
God bless people in the world,
people in Russia and Ukraine should obey Ten Commandments.
Eric
May 10, 2022 at 11:17 pm
What a bunch of morons asking god for help. God has abandoned everyone in a war zone. There is a reason people say war is hell.
Jan
May 10, 2022 at 10:31 pm
Ukrainians have just pushed them back almost to the border around Kharkiv. Yes, they have retreated from Popasna, but that town is completely destroyed and is actually not that important. Also, can Ivan break through their lines? No he can’t! Such intensive offensive cannot last much longer than 10 or 15 days. You can only accrue that much of forces and supplies. And they don’t have enough strength for multiple large offensives. Russian army is going nowhere, because it’s all just one big C.R.A.P., one big mobile exhibition for parades, but hardly anything more. It’s roten, embezzled, corrupted, demoralised and coward. People in the West can’t even imagine the extent of all of this, but believe me: EVERYTHING in that cursed country is fake, including their silly army, including their weapons, including their soldiers and generals. Nukes are terrifying, yes, but also very much useless (unless you really want to commit suicide). Russians have poor morale, their best units are already crushed or they simply refuse to fight. They are also running out of time and ideas. Now they are actually running out of precision munitions too, so they’re just pummelling blocks of flats with ballistic and cruise missiles, hoping that Ukraininans will somehow miraculously crack up. But they won’t. They know they are facing fake army of fake country. Russian tactical success in two months? No way! This “big offensive” in the east is already exhausted and stalemated. If they want to encircle someone, they need a blitzkrieg, not a crawlkrieg. If they want to ever reach Dnipro, they need to mobilise hundreds of thousands, they need to swith to war economy, and this would almost surely mean a quick collapse of “dear mother Russia”. They can’t supply their current forces. How would they supply an army which is twice as large? They would literally starve them to death. Moreover, even full mobilisation might not be enough, because Ukraine is also not fully mobilised at this point. Don’t forget that this country can easily mobilize over 1 milion men (if things get really bad, then up to 6 or 7 millions), and most of those would be very motivated guys. Russia has nothing like that.
Commentar
May 10, 2022 at 10:56 pm
Ukraine is a faux pas case for Biden and NATO. Kyiv is no civilized nation accrued for peaceful co-existence with neighbors or the principles of God himself.
This is no longer a case of whether zelenskiiy can win and survive or otherwise, but how will Biden deal with the fallout of his foolish gamble in Europe.
Massive sums of money are now available for weapons to Kyiv but little or none for providing free covid vaccine shots for the poor, the disadvantaged, the elderly and the down and out in America.
This coming winter, 100 million Americans are expected to become infected with covid due to biden administration’s failure to plan ahead. New more dangerous variants are expected to appear by fall of 2022.Biden is going to have his skin ripped off his frame assuming he’d still be living and kicking after 8 Nov 2022.
Meanwhile, Russia would be in a position to hold future US presidents to ransom by threatening to sell SS-30 ICBM technology to other countries.
US currently has no reliable defense against the SS-30. Imagine several adversaries that Washington has treated very badly in the past suddenly in possession of SS-30 analogues.Biden needs to pawn his balls and the balls of his son and grandsons to get them to annihilate those doomsday items.
Vladolph Putler
May 10, 2022 at 11:48 pm
Well that nonsense sure riles up the trolls. Give them something to work with.
But it’s not very realistic. Izyum was a Russian victory, no doubt. And hard won. But other battlefield gains were similarly hard won, then lost. When lost, Russian forces have managed to hold onto small gains overall, but substantial losses in equipment and personnel. Russians have been losing territory elsewhere to Ukrainian offensives that take territory and lose none- such as Kharkiv, of course, but also Kryvyi Rih and Mykoliev. And though Ukrainians haven’t “taken” Snake Island, they have BRUTALLY kicked the Russians out. Highly strategic for safe shipping passage to friendly territorial waters. And VERY costly for the Russians.
Russian gains have been small, incremental, and with the exception of Izyum, not strategic. Ukrainian gains have generally been strategic, and held.
Russian forces get weaker day by day. More combat losses, more equipment destroyed, more obsolete junk taken out of mothballs, and more high end hardware deployed and destroyed. Russian aviation doesn’t venture into Ukrainian airspace any more, but Ukrainian fighter/bombers are now showing up on the front lines, and of course laying waste to Russians on Snake Island. Shortages of ammunition and weaponry (especially artillery shells) are being remedied, and Ukraine now fields more and better of everything in theater short of capital ships. Soldiers, tanks, artillery, aircraft.
Russia cannot win without serious escalations. But those escalations also face serious consequences, as Russia is NOT the only one who can escalate. They can play the full mobilization card, or nuclear card. Or perhaps bully Lukashenka into playing the Belarus card. But Russia has worked pretty hard to deal themselves a bad hand. Much worse than the bad hand they so foolishly started with.
Andrew P
May 12, 2022 at 3:36 pm
Russia can use tactical nukes, but has a problem – the prevailing winds blow from Ukraine into Russia, making any such victory very Pyrrhic. Still, I could see Russia using a few nukes when it is at its endgame. Once Russia is holding the Ukrainian territory it is capable of defending, it could use a few nukes to send a message to Zelensky that now is time for a cease-fire at current lines. But under current conditions, Ukraine might just keep on fighting anyway. That is the problem – to have a settlement, both sides need to want it, and right now neither does. Both sides believe that a military victory is still possible.
Eric
May 10, 2022 at 11:50 pm
I disagree. Every Ukrainian citizen under Russian occupation is subject to genocide at the hands of the fascist Russians. For Russia, this is a fight for a security buffer zone; I understand Putin thinks that’s important for Russia. For Ukraine, this is a fight for their very existence, an existential war. Negotiating a new border doesn’t change that Russia wants to exterminate the existence of the Ukrainian nation to obtain their friendly buffer zone. If new borders are negotiated, Russia will re-arm and start again in 5-10 years.
Ukraine has more people in the fight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEpk_yGjn0E
Ukraine and it’s allies have more industrial production capabilities. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08
Over time, the scales will likely tip against Russia. All we have to do is keep sending the ammo to Ukraine. Even a full Russian mobilization will not change that, because they don’t have advanced weaponry in reserves, nor the ability to produce it in quantity quickly.
“During Friday’s live broadcast of 60 Minutes, retired Colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok made the stunning confession that even mass mobilization in Russia wouldn’t help alter the course of Putin’s stalled invasion of Ukraine. He admitted that Russia would be hard-pressed to replenish its mounting losses in Ukraine, and that sending masses to fight with outdated weapons would be counterproductive because Russia’s arsenal does not measure up to NATO’s top-notch weaponry.
“Let’s imagine the drumroll, the sound of fanfare, and the mobilization is declared. How soon under this mobilization will we get the first fighter aviation regiment? We would get it by New Year’s. We don’t have the reserves, the pilots, or the planes so the mobilization would be of little help,” Khodaryonok said. “If tonight, we order new ships to be built, how soon will we get the first one? In two years! That’s the deal with mobilization. If we set a goal of forming a new tank division, when would it be ready? I would say in at least 90 days. And it wouldn’t be equipped with modern weaponry because we don’t have modern weapons and equipment in our reserves.”
“The retired colonel continued: “Sending people armed with weapons of yesteryear into a war of the 21st century to fight against global standard NATO weapons would not be the right thing to do. We need to replenish our losses, of course, but this should be done through industrial enterprises. Mobilization would not solve these issues.”” (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-television-admits-vladimir-putins-army-has-been-totally-embarrassing-in-ukraine-war)
They let him say it on Russian TV. You can watch the video here: https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1523036461595242498?s=20&t=GnQFSTDnqwHEB-9x4z4obg
The longer Ukraine stays in the fight, the better their chances become over time. I say let the Ukrainians decide when enough is enough.
Him
May 11, 2022 at 12:47 am
Alex and the Russian trolls refuse to comment on Soviet Russia being allies with Nazi Germany at the start of WW2.
Alex cites Bandera being allies with the Germans in WW2 — but, Alex, the total number of Bandera’s forces are so small compared to the entire Soviet Russia ALSO being allies with the SAME Nazi’s.
Alex keeps copying and pasting the same junk, but refuses to comment on anything that shows the Russians are the ones allied with the Nazis. That’s why the Russians are doing exactly what the Nazis did.
from Russia with love
May 11, 2022 at 4:32 am
“Alex and the Russian trolls refuse to comment on Soviet Russia being allies with Nazi Germany at the start of WW2.”
why do we refuse to comment? I always take pleasure in scoffing at the low level of education in the USA 🙂
1) a non-aggression pact was concluded between the USSR and Germany, also known as the Molotov-Rebentrop Pact. this document is in the public domain and only a completely stupid one can call it an allied treaty 🙂 there is not a word about military cooperation.
2) this is the last non-aggression pact concluded with Germany. prior to this, most of Europe and Britain had already concluded similar pacts with Germany.
3) the most reliable sources, bank checks, indicate that the alliance with Hitler, in addition to Italy and Japan, was in the USA and Britain;)
Apparently, some Americans have such a low level of development that they do not know how to use Google search 🙂 everything that I wrote about is in the public domain on the Internet. Do you want to know about alliances with Hitler? read about the Munich agreement and the capture of Czechoslovakia by Germany, Poland with the support of France and Britain. 😉
Tony
May 11, 2022 at 11:04 pm
Ukraine declared a day to commemorate Stepan Bandera in 2018. There are Stepan Bandera statues in western Ukraine such as in Lviv. Can you tell us which Nazis are commemorated in Russia with their own day and which Nazis have statues in Russian cities?
Eric
May 11, 2022 at 1:59 am
the formal definition — as established by the Rome Statute, the treaty which instituted the International Criminal Court
“For the purpose of this Statute, “genocide” means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.”
Proof of intent: Putin’s speech broadcast on February 21, 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20220223140546/http://en.kremlin.ru/en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
Then look at the websites for Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International. It looks like a lot of genocide. Are we doing enough to stop Putin?
Imagine we had let Hitler win… let Britain fall to the Nazis and keep it.
The “Realists” are refusing to stand for Freedom and Democracy that enable our wellness and prosperity.
David Chang
May 11, 2022 at 2:06 am
Hitler, Lenin, Zelensky, Putin, and Biden,
all of them believe socialism, and not obey Ten Commandments.
Why should we help them?
Why do people in Russia, Ukraine, and E.U. help them?
People in Russia and Ukraine should vote for the people who obey Ten Commandments.
Air battle over Nis
May 11, 2022 at 2:36 am
Biden and zelenskiiy and stoltenberg broke the ten commandments – you shall not covet your neighbor’s oxen. For that, they will have to pay.
Biden wanted to effect regime change in russia, get hold of moscow’s treasures and squat in the capital without payment. Which US has done in 130 to 150 nations around the world.
But biden is a fool, he’s no brilliant strategist. He cornered russia with help from stoltenberg and zelenskiiy using ukraine as bait and russia did the right thing. Came out of the door with guns blazing to de-nazify kyiv.
Why the right thing to do. Cuz right now US military has zero hypersonic weaponry in europe.
If all this were to happen just a few years from now, the story would be very different.
A few years from now, USA would have placed hypersonic weapons systems at russia’s door which of course is something very provocative and unscrupulous (but when has USA being known to be scrupulous) and russia would find itself completely unable to save itself or the donbass peoples.
But biden jumped the proverbial gun (he being already 80-years-old) and right now it is russia, not USA, who has the tactical hypersonic weapons that are operational and has already used them.
IF ONLY, IF ONLY, IF ONLY IF ONLY…biden is 40-years-young he would have been able to give himself the chance to seize russia’s oxen at an appropriate time.
But time is RUNNING OUT for biden, for stoltenberg and for zelenskiiy. Especially for biden. 2024? Yeah! Hell yeah!
from Russia with love
May 11, 2022 at 5:33 am
ha ha ha 🙂 what is this?!? what does this guy write in his article??? all the experts on this resource competed for distillation who will describe the defeat of Russia in Ukraine more colorfully! what’s happened? are they glimmers of reason? No!!! stop! I liked that theater of the absurd that reigned here for the last month 🙂
hmm… probably I’ll still throw a fly in the ointment into that barrel of honey that was filled here for the last month. I will tell you about the heroic assault on Serpent’s Island, which was carried out by Ukraine from May 6 to May 9.
at the request of the British advisers, Zelensky gave the order to return Snake Island (8 hectares of rock in the sea) under the control of Ukraine.
solid resources and the best divisions were involved for this PR action. Ukrainian planes attacked the island and troops began to land, but the cunning of the Russians is boundless! it turned out that there are no Russians on the island, but at the same time, the island is perfectly shot through with missiles from Russian ships. the first helicopter to land on the island was destroyed by a rocket on the ground, along with a paratrooper unloading ammunition. 2 more Mi-8s with landing troops and Mi-24s of fire support were shot down near the island. the Ukrainian small landing ship “Centaur” with a landing force was also sunk. the irony is that it was filmed by the Ukrainians from the Bayraktar drone, which was also shot down 🙂 the next day the Ukrainians tried again with the same result. as a result of three days of PR action to seize an empty island, the Ukrainian side lost 4 helicopters, of which 3 with troops (some sources add to them another 6 destroyed on the ground as a result of a strike on the airfield from which this operation was carried out), 3 Su-25, 1 Su -24, 4 landing ships, 1 missile boat, 30 UAVs of which 9 Bayraktar, more than 100 people of elite units. On May 10, Russian troops landed on the island to pick up 24 corpses of Ukrainian soldiers. I don’t know who could inflict such heavy damage on the stolen army except British advisers 🙂
CK
May 11, 2022 at 6:39 am
I have to give kudos to the mental contortion and somersault abilities of Russians to start passing own their own losses as Ukrainians.
Have you considered being in the Olympics? Honestly, with mental faculties as flexible as yours, it will be a clear run for gold.
Everything you mentioned happened exactly as described with one small caveat, Wagner have already publicly acknowledged the losses were Russian.
When even your paid dogs go against your “narrative”, you know it’s over.
from Russia with love
May 11, 2022 at 8:36 am
“Everything you mentioned happened exactly as described with one small caveat, Wagner have already publicly acknowledged the losses were Russian.”
where recognized? in the “most truthful” Ukrainian publics 🙂 in those very ones in which the Ukrainian helicopter destroyed on Zmein Island is called Russian? in those publics in which today, according to tradition, they published photos of Ukrainian tanks destroyed in 2014 and wrote that these were Russian tanks knocked out in 2022? 🙂
Are you tired of eating pork shit yet?
oh yes, I almost forgot! where is the mobilization? you yelled about mobilization two weeks ago. your media immediately promised a field of holidays… where?!?
CK
May 11, 2022 at 10:56 am
Actually, it’s a Wagner telegram channel, hardly Ukrainian propaganda.
As for mobilisation… good things come to those who wait 😉
from Russia with love
May 11, 2022 at 2:48 pm
“Actually, it’s a Wagner telegram channel, hardly Ukrainian propaganda.”
Didn’t your mom tell you that lying is bad? 🙂
checked all 4 channels associated with this group. I did not find any mythical confessions of fictitious losses. even early data on the suppression of the Tor-M1 complex were not confirmed. can you give a link to this telegram post? oh yes, I must apologize, I wrote that they shot down the Su-24. this is not true. shot down a Su-27. 🙂
By the way, how is “Admiral Makarov”? Is it still burning or has everyone already understood that the Ukrainians have lied once again? 🙂
aldol11
May 11, 2022 at 6:30 am
disagree, Ukrainians may face some setbacks but the long game is on their side.
Russian soldiers do not believe in the mission
Russian logistics are Mussolini-like
weapons from the west will continue to flow to Ukraine at an increasing pace
Russian economy will collapse and Ukraine will thrive thanks to the West support
there is NO WAY that Russia will prevail
even an idiot can see that
Tony
May 12, 2022 at 9:17 pm
The weapons better get their fast or come with foreign fighters to use them because Ukraine is at a disadvantage now and taking unsustainable losses.
Tom
May 11, 2022 at 7:58 am
Putin would have to stand on a box to look most people in the eye. The world has isolated Russia to the point of economic collapse and everyone is cheering. David’s slingshot has humiliated Putin and his Potemkin Army.
BTW comrade Alex, was the Moskva designed as a submarine?
At least Ukraine has a future while Russia stares into the abyss of irrelevance.
Tony
May 11, 2022 at 11:10 pm
Ukraine’s infrastructure is getting destroyed and it’s citizens killed. And the western warmongers don’t care, pushing Ukraine to continue on rather than negotiate a peace agreement. Similar to how the west told Ukraine not to implement Minsk or Minsk 2 peace agreements and to continue to shell civilians in the Donbas breakaway areas.
Pagar
May 11, 2022 at 8:00 am
New york times, NYT, says russian forces and donbass militias now hold 80% of eastern ukraine, with only two areas centered around Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk still in ukrainian hands.
NYT isn’t exactly a russian outlet, so how is it that zelenskiyy is claiming his forces are winning and the russians are losing, while joe biden is saying russia doesn’t know how to get out of the situation it is in.
Seems goebellian propaganda is alive and well these days. When you decide to ride the tiger it’s impossible to get off. But biden knows nothing at all. Heeyah! Heeyah! Biden !!! Heeyah !!! Heeyah !!
from Russia with love
May 11, 2022 at 9:20 am
“NYT isn’t exactly a russian outlet, so how is it that zelenskiyy is claiming his forces are winning and the russians are losing, while joe biden is saying russia doesn’t know how to get out of the situation it is in.”
campaign cut 40 billion dollars is worth it to lie to the media and drive thousands of Ukrainians under the shells and missiles of the Russian army.
Have you already paid attention to Biden’s creative idea to take 20 million tons of grain out of Ukraine? apparently, in the opinion of some American politicians, war is not enough for the triumph of democracy and famine is necessary.
CK
May 11, 2022 at 11:01 am
lol, it’s just one clown after another.
It’s my belief the reason there seems to be zero interest by this website to address the trolls and blatantly paid Kremlin propagandists here is that it drives traffic and generates engagement.
Look at how much time we waste back and forth with these idiots. So be it, if this website allows excrement to be dumped at its doorstep, it is not my job to clean it.
Less so to argue with it – what sane man debates with a mound of crap in the street, regardless of how much it stinks?
Alex
May 11, 2022 at 12:07 pm
A bit of truth.
The head of the UN monitoring mission, Matilda Bogner, said that the organization has reliable information about the torture of Russian soldiers in Ukrainian captivity:
“Ukraine and Russia must promptly and effectively investigate all allegations of torture and ill-treatment of prisoners of war,” she said.
The military-civilian administration of the Kherson region announced their intention to appeal to Putin with a request to include the region into Russia:
“We intend to live as part of the Russian Federation. We fully cooperate and feel as one with the regions of Russia.”
Pfizer, Moderna, Merck, Gilead are testing medicines in Ukraine, bypassing international safety standards, reducing the costs of research programs and gaining significant competitive advantages. Coronavirus vaccine manufacturers have been involved in US military biological activities.
Along with American pharmaceutical companies and Pentagon contractors, Ukrainian state structures are involved in military biological activities, the main tasks of which are to conceal illegal activities, conduct field and clinical trials, and provide the necessary biomaterial.
The American side expanded its research potential both in the field of creating biological weapons and in the field of obtaining information about antibiotic resistance and the presence of antibodies to various diseases in the population of specific regions.
Ukraine has long become a training ground for Western countries to create biological weapons components and test new samples of pharmaceuticals.
The United States, as part of its military biological program in Ukraine, used Mariupol as a regional center for work with the cholera pathogen.
Evidence was obtained of the emergency destruction of documents confirming work with the US military department. A preliminary analysis of the surviving documentation indicates the use of Mariupol as a regional center for the collection and certification of the cholera pathogen.
The selected strains were sent to the public health center in Kyiv, which is entrusted with the functions of further sending biomaterials to the United States.
This activity has been carried out since 2014, which is confirmed by the acts of transfer of strains.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby on Fox News recalled that the United States supplied weapons to Ukraine long before the start of the Russian special operation.
“The Biden administration was supplying weapons long before the invasion. The first billion dollars that the president allocated for Ukraine did indeed include assistance with lethal weapons … The United States, Canada, Britain, other allies actually helped prepare the Ukrainians, ”Kirby quoted the TV channel as saying.
As military experts and analysts had previously assumed, Ukraine would have brought down all its military power on the Donbass in any case, but Russia was the first to come to the aid of Donyuass.
The world is watching. The world sees. Lies are dying.
Tom
May 11, 2022 at 12:34 pm
Actually, thousands of Russian are dying in Ukraine and Putin’s lies have cemented his place in history as a war criminal who singled handedly ruined Russian economy for his crazed manifest destiny mindset. Never to be a superpower, rather a nuclear armed rogue nation like North Korea…thugs.
Alex
May 11, 2022 at 1:05 pm
And who are you to argue who is false and who is not? On the one hand – evidence and facts, on the other hand (like yours) – lies, fantasies, hysteria.
The world believes the truth, not your Slavophobia.
Tom
May 11, 2022 at 2:25 pm
You crack me up, comrade. You’re a joke and everyone laughs at you.
Have you run out of targets for Javelins/NLAWs yet? I understand Ukraine has a good supply they’re looking to use.
from Russia with love
May 11, 2022 at 3:10 pm
you’re funny 🙂 apparently this “Have you run out of targets for Javelins/NLAWs yet?” should in your opinion annoy the Russians? 🙂
I’ll probably upset you, but the ATGMs of the USA and Britain turned out to be bullshit. Ukrainian prisoners of war and the militia of the LPR and DPR complain about them and are not happy with these anti-tank systems. they may be good at weapon exhibitions, but in the field they often run out of batteries and they don’t work at the right time.
unlike ATGMs, the Stinger MANPADS liked the DPR militia. with the help of these MANPADS, they shot down several helicopters trying to take the Nazis out of Azovstal 🙂
I advise you to re-read the article 😉 your Nazi proxies are really doing very badly.
Tom
May 11, 2022 at 3:41 pm
Keep sending those pop top tanks and soldiers to die in Ukraine…they have plenty of body bags.
Why would Putin snivel about western arms if they weren’t so lethal? Verified loss of tanks/armored vehicles etc. is not only stunning, but unsustainable. Are farmers still stealing your tanks, too?
from Russia with love
May 12, 2022 at 7:25 am
“Verified loss of tanks/armored vehicles etc. is not only stunning, but unsustainable.”
confirmed by whom? Ukrainian storytellers? funny 🙂
look at the facts, Ukraine is begging for weapons from everyone, Russia is not asking for military assistance. in Ukraine, forced mobilization and territorial defense from the western regions have already been thrown into battle, in Russia there is no mobilization. Ukraine is losing settlements and defense lines every day, Russia is moving forward every day. This is a Ukrainian politician Turchynov filming a video “Buy me a plane”.
I can’t forbid you to eat Ukrainian slop and believe in the myths about the “Ghost of Kyiv” and 40 downed planes, but after the encirclement and destruction of the Ukrainian group in the Donbass, you will need to come up with some kind of explanation for this event and I would advise you to start thinking about it right now 😉
phil stacy
May 11, 2022 at 1:25 pm
The United States should give Ukraine a nuclear missile sub so that Russia cannot be an existential threat to Ukraine. The answer is outside the box.
Alex
May 11, 2022 at 1:33 pm
You’re a dreamer. But let’s imagine this option. Consequences – British island at the bottom of the ocean and the Canadian-Mexico Strait.
Tom
May 11, 2022 at 2:38 pm
You talk really stupid. If Russia was lucky enough to get a nuke to work and hit UK or US there would be every US sub firing nukes at Russia. Nobody survives your insane scenario. Grow up.
Imagine how Russia could have been accepted and prospered without Putin. Or think about how much different your life might have been in the west without a fascist overlord who has stolen billions from his own country.
I. Martin
May 11, 2022 at 3:39 pm
In the desperation to return to the status quo, the U.S. is going to lose this war. It is not merely the Ukraine that loses, but the U.S. that will lose a proxy war–yet another one–and against an extremely weak enemy. The threat of nuclear war has been put forth ad nauseum. It is exhausting! I don’t know why we are looking to build an escape ramp for Putin when we have him where we want him. There is no need to threat Russia proper. We need only to grow a pair and determine what our goals and limits are.
It is clear that a Ukraine without Odessa is useless, so at the very least, we need to send in ships to the Black Sea and insist on lifting the blockade on Odessa, as well as making it clear that the Russians simply cannot have it–end of story! There is a humanitarian case to be made, as food shipments need to start going out. At the same time, we bring this war closer to a rapid end on our terms.
from Russia with love
May 11, 2022 at 3:46 pm
“You talk really stupid. If Russia was lucky enough to get a nuke to work and hit UK or US there would be every US sub firing nukes at Russia. Nobody survives your insane scenario. Grow up.”
it’s good that you understand that. can you still say that the US military has forgotten at the other end of the globe near the borders of Russia? we think it’s time for the US to stop.
“Imagine how Russia could have been accepted and prospered without Putin.”
Alex has been living without Putin for a long time. it’s even more correct to say that he never lived in a country led by Ways 🙂 he is a Pole. 🙂
but I lived in the USSR without Putin, I lived in Russia without Putin (under Yeltsin), and that is why we support Putin and Putin is regularly re-elected President. didn’t you think about it? unlike you, we know what Russia is without Putin;)
want a fresh anecdote from Russia? Biden is the same as drunk Yeltsin, but sober. 🙂
“Or think about how much different your life might have been in the west without a fascist overlord who has stolen billions from his own country.”
oh my god, you’ve been brainwashed 🙂 dude, wake up! the iron curtain fell 30 years ago! those who live in Russia have already been abroad many times and seen your rotten civilization 🙂 do you seriously think that for everyone the top of dreams is to settle in a country where you need to lick someone’s feet because of his skin color? ha ha ha 🙂
Tom
May 11, 2022 at 4:24 pm
Rigged elections and poisoning political enemies seems to be acceptable to you…yet I’m brainwashed? ROTFL.
Alex
May 11, 2022 at 4:39 pm
I visit Russia almost every year. In Russia, people in large and medium-sized cities live better than people in many European cities. Shut your lying mouth, Bandera Nazi or Russophobe.
Tom
May 11, 2022 at 7:13 pm
Must have struck a nerve? Sorry Boris, even Bullwinkle makes you look very stupid. Vlad made the world hate Russia…get used to it.
“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.”
from Russia with love
May 12, 2022 at 6:54 am
of course you were brainwashed 🙂 on the basis of what did you decide that the elections in Russia were rigged? so your media wrote? ha ha ha 🙂 look at yourself in the mirror. your media decide for you what to think and think for yourself, you have already forgotten how to think 🙂
poisoning political rivals? are you talking about Navalny? the guy who once participated in the elections and in a coalition with 2 more of the same gained 2%. is this a political competitor of Putin? funny 🙂
By the way, tell me, what are the chances of a politician directly financed from Russia to become a congressman or president in the USA? Or is it not possible in the US? 🙂 why did you decide that in Russia a foreign agent can participate in politics?
Tom
May 12, 2022 at 7:14 am
ROTFL. Keep sniveling, Boris. Russia is isolated and hated by the world…and you are still an idiot that everyone laughs at.
from Russia with love
May 12, 2022 at 10:45 am
what world??? 🙂 look at the map! Russia has 2/3 of the world for trade and 1/3 of the idiots who bury their economy but continue to trade with Russia 🙂
for 8 years now you have been telling a fairy tale about the “torn to shreds” economy of Russia 🙂 probably even a stupid person could understand in 8 years that he was being deceived, but you still could not 🙂
Illurion
May 11, 2022 at 9:40 pm
The author is wrong.
Ukraine will win.
Russia will lose.
Putin and his bots will be executed.
Eric
May 11, 2022 at 9:50 pm
The more I think about it the more I realize this article is just completely wrong, not just the moral argument, but the basic facts. The heavy weapons sent by western countries are ALREADY at the front, and the Ukrainians have ALREADY made gains, before this article was published. You don’t have to take my word for it: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Stefan Stackhouse
May 11, 2022 at 9:59 pm
As long as Ukraine can get resupplied by the US and its NATO allies (while Russia can’t get resupplied by anyone), they can stay in the fight and keep Russia from an outright win.
At the same time, Russia has nukes, and they will use them rather than suffering an outright loss.
The lines and colors on the map might continue shifting a little for a while, but they seem destined to settle down into a protracted stalemate. As with Korea, we might eventually see neither side “win”, nor peace be agreed, but rather just a cease fire. This may not be what anyone wants, nor what anyone is planning. I suspect that it is what they are going to get.
Mike Schwarz
May 11, 2022 at 9:59 pm
I am born and raised in Moscow. It is tragic that Russia became a fascist country. I do not think fascism will prevail in the battle for Ukraine. It did not prevail during the second world war when Hitler had a much stronger hand than Putin has today. Russia is running out of soldiers. Occupiers tend to loose because nobody wants to die for nothing. USSR basically lost against tiny Finland in 1939 (although it declared victory), USSR lost in Afghanistan too. US did not prevail in Vietnam, and Afghanistan and Iraq. Russia will loose the war in Ukraine. Every year on May 9th Russia has a huge military parade with military pilots showing their acrobatics over red square. Each year other than this year? This year there was a parade of military vehicle but no planes. Why not? Perhaps it is because Putin who always attends the military parade was afraid that one of his pilots will do him in from the air. Many of the most famous Russian singers, writers and journalists fled from Russia and are standing with Ukraine. I do not think it gets lost on an average Russian. True, an average Russian is not a peace activist by any stretch but very very few are willing to die in order to occupy Ukraine. I know many idiots in Russia who think that the “special operations” is needed but non of them wants to fight for it or to have their relatives fighting for it. Fun fact, In contrast, I know many Ukrainians who want to fight for their country.
Alex
May 12, 2022 at 10:09 am
At best, you were born in a village near Lvov, Bandera Nazi 🙂
JMF
May 11, 2022 at 10:36 pm
Colonel: Thank you for an excellent, balanced assessment of the military situation in Ukraine and the hopelessly fact-free wishful thinking in the West.
As I see you’re inundated here with armchair generals (and a few outright trolls), I won’t dawdle at this point. But your assessment certainly looks spot-on to me and to those who pointed me here.
Best regards!
Alex
May 12, 2022 at 10:08 am
OK. In Ukraine, 10,000 Russian and 1,000 Russian tanks are destroyed every day. It’s not even funny to read, but it’s not interesting anymore. Let’s talk about the collapsed Russian economy:
The Russian ruble has become the best world currency in 2022. On Thursday, May 12, Bloomberg reported.
According to the latest data, the ruble has grown by 11 percent against the dollar since the beginning of 2022. Thus, it has become the leader among the 31 major currencies monitored by the agency’s experts.
The strengthening of the currency came after the measures taken by the Russian government against the backdrop of Western sanctions, writes Bloomberg. It is clarified that the authorities introduced capital controls, and also obliged exporters to sell foreign exchange earnings. In particular, in March, the President of Russia announced a new procedure for paying for gas by European consumers.
As similar examples, the authors of the article cite the Turkish lira and the Argentine peso, which failed to achieve maximum growth rates after the decisions of the governments of these countries. The Russian currency, on the contrary, responded well to the measures taken, Bloomberg experts conclude.
Only facts, not squeals and fantasies of Bandera Nazis and Slavophobes.
Illurion
May 12, 2022 at 10:13 am
Dear Mike Schwarz:
Excellent post.
Thank you.
Jacksonian Libertarian
May 12, 2022 at 11:39 am
Fact: Ukraine continues to gain back territory.
Fact: Russia is losing territory it gained in the initial invasion.
Fact: The momentum has changed, and Russia is being forced to react to Ukraine’s increasing attacks on its supply lines.
Fact: This is not a stalemate, Russian attacks are being repulsed with heavy losses. When Russia is forced to stop attacking due to losses and poor resupply, Ukraine regains territory.
Davis’s conclusion of a long war is incorrect, and he is probably one of those that thought Russia would win in 72 hours. And is now ignoring Russia’s accelerating losses, and Ukraine’s accelerating gains.
Alex
May 12, 2022 at 11:44 am
Russia’s oil revenues have grown by 50% since the beginning of the year, despite trade restrictions imposed after the start of a special operation in Ukraine, writes Bloomberg citing a report by the International Energy Agency.
“Russia has earned approximately $20 billion monthly since the beginning of 2022 from cumulative sales of oil and petroleum products at an export level of 8 million barrels per day,” the document says. As the IEA noted, supplies from Russia continue to flow despite the fact that the EU is currently discussing a ban on energy imports, and major international oil companies Shell and Total Energy promise to stop purchases.
Russian energy resources are in high demand in Asia, especially in India and China. Experts emphasize that the reduction in the supply of refined products from Russia, such as diesel fuel, fuel oil and naphtha, has exacerbated tensions on world markets. At the same time, stocks of so-called middle distillates (some types of petroleum products that are obtained as a result of the distillation of hydrocarbons, including heating and marine fuels) are at their lowest level since 2008.
Another collapse of the Russian economy. I am sure that in Russia they clap and thank you.
Tom
May 12, 2022 at 12:12 pm
Boris, I must commend you on your ability to cut and paste the same BS over and over. It must take fortitude for you to get up everyday pushing the same Kremlin lies knowing everyone hates you and your failed country. The world knows they don’t need to heed Vlad’s saber rattling ever again…after witnessing humiliating performance by Russian troops and equipment. LOL
The largest economies in the world will have nothing to do with Russia. Read today that you are so desperate for chips that you’re taking them from washing machines!
Carroll Heyward
May 12, 2022 at 12:08 pm
Mike, I am not sure that I agree with you at this moment.
I read the ISW May 11 assessment and if appears that the Ukrainian Forces have moved the Russians out of Karkiev and are pushing West to cut the Russian army resupply highway. If that happens, I bet the UF will be successful and “unhinge Reussian offensive operations around Izyum.”
Stay tuned if this happens, Russia will have lost the East.
Currently I understand that the Wagner mercenaries are trying to push from Popasnanad are trying to conquer the Severodneska area. This will be lost and they may find them selves traped behind Ukrainian lines.
Bill Gardner
May 12, 2022 at 12:22 pm
I agree with the LT. COL. His assessment of the ground situation matches what the satellite maps show is really happening. As an 8 year Calvary Scout (19d) trained and deployed to stop the Soviets in Fulda, Wildflecken and Bad Hershfeld with the 11th Acr back in the day, we heard a lot about the Soviets blitz across the border, but we didn’t plan for that we gamed out a series of encirclements. This is how they ground the Nazi’s to dust from the battle of Kursk until the fall of Berlin. It’s like a giant anaconda with artillery. One quick movement to contact, a slow encirclement and then pressure until resistance collapses. God only knows why we keep feeding the snake, the solution here is diplomatic Ukraine has almost no frontline soldiers left. Most are old dudes like me, led by kids. The 181st is supposed to be there best unit, it’s led by a Lt. Instead of a COL. And when they broke contact last Friday they had no equipment. The Lt was interviewed and said most of his troops are twice his age. Wtf are we doing to these people, adding $40 billion ain’t going to bring back the dead. Milley is the guy who fucked up Mogadishu with 10th Mountain, Iraq and then Afghanistan and he is advising he should be relieved of command.
Alex
May 12, 2022 at 2:20 pm
What is the war between the US and Russia? The answer is simple:
This is a scorched Europe, Britain at the bottom of the ocean, the Canadian-Mexico Strait and the destruction of the European and not only part of Russia. Who won? None. But due to its geographical position, Russia has a better chance of recovery.
Will it be because of the currently Nazi Ukraine? Very little chance. The taxpayers of Europe, Britain and the US will not want to die because of the imperialist desires of their some Nazi rulers. This is not 1939. This means a war of extermination. Anyone understands this and will not jeopardize their family, their people, their country for the Bandera Nazis and some idiot politicians of the West.
Tom
May 12, 2022 at 7:59 pm
Today is full of good news: Finland joining NATO (Sweden next), Russia’s loss of a BTG and a new ship burning in the Black Sea, plus Brimstone missiles on their way to Ukraine. It’s good to have friends. Do you have any friends, Boris?
David R
May 12, 2022 at 2:40 pm
Avril Haines is a woman. How do you not know this?
Jim
May 12, 2022 at 4:00 pm
Daniel Davis US Lt Col….
OMG I didnt know the US army promoted a cowards battalion… What was your job in the army? Did you always carry a white flag ? When they said lead follow or get out of the way did you decide to run and hide?
Chamberlain had the same idea for England in WWII that you have for Ukraine… Just negotiate with Hitler… Hitler laughed at him when he left the meeting. Hitler went on with his plans happy for the time Chamberlain’s cowardly act bought him… Chamberlain is remembered as a giant coward forever… Your plan makes you look weaker than Chamberlain and Putin loves to beat up on cowards..
Tony
May 12, 2022 at 9:26 pm
Apparently Putin likes to beat up on non-cowards too because a lot of Ukraine is being destroyed and a lot of Ukrainians are dying after their brave decision to choose war over peace.
David Chang
May 13, 2022 at 2:04 am
God bless people in the world.
You and Eric are wrong.
If you on behalf of Democratic Party, assures people in the world that we can win the nuclear war waged by socialism parties like Russia, and prevent from inflation, people in the world will agree with your war.
God bless you.
John
May 13, 2022 at 10:39 am
“Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said he believes Putin “is preparing for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine””
Avril Haines is a “she” not a “he” although in the current sexual identity climate that is not necessarily a given.
Nit-picking point.
SkippingDog
May 17, 2022 at 4:40 pm
The important thing is the Russian military capacity is being continually degraded with each day of their illegal invasion. NATO will provide all the weapons needed to take Russia’s military back to the 1950’s, and the world will be a far safer place.
Bob
May 27, 2022 at 5:39 am
Finally. Someone being honest and not spreading fake news. Very refreshing. Great article. 99% or journalists are delusional these days.