SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart As the Hollywood labor stoppage continues, the 2023 box office rally rages on as domestic box office soars past $6 billion, +22% over the same January-August period a year ago. This weekend for all movies stands at an estimated $178M.
We always knew this weekend would best the first frame of August a year ago ($92M), and that’s happening at +94%, but also the current Friday-Sunday is kicking the first weekend of August 2019’s $148.99M by +20%, and that’s when Hobbs & Shaw ruled the chart.
Industry estimates have Barbie as box office queen bee with $54M+ in weekend 3 after a $17M Friday, but there’s a fierce battle for second place –how great is that?– between Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Oppenheimer and The Meg 2: The Trench with an industry average of $29M apiece. Paramount is calling dibs on second with $30M for Turtles and a great 5-day of $45M for this $70M production.
Warner Bros.’ The Meg 2: The Trench, which got a B- to the first installment’s B+, is eyeing $28M after a $12M Friday. Interesting to note here that this result is largely fueled by TV spots and in-theater trailers, not the cast’s promotion due to the strike. Jason Statham, who counts 111M fans on social media, got this modest plug in for the film on Instagram before the SAG-AFTRA strikes began:
Universal’s is calling Oppenheimer‘s third weekend at $28.7M, -39%, for a running total by Sunday of $228.5M.
Meanwhile, by tomorrow, Barbie is around $40M shy from passing the half billion mark at the domestic box office, her gross being $460.4M.
The second animated take of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles has a Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak audience score of 88% positive and a 70% reccomend with kids under 12 giving it 94%, and a 69% must-see; enough ooze to keep chugging into the fall. That’s on top of its already A CinemaScore. Men showing up at 60% to women’s 40% with 56% of the crowd between 18-34. The biggest demo is 18-24 at 34%. Diversity demos are 33% Caucasian, a great 33% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black, and 16% Asian/other. The South Central and the West are the most robust here for the Nickelodeon/Point Grey production. Oppenheimer still has the Imax, but the Turtles have PLFs which are driving 20% of ticket sales and another 11% from 3D. Adam Aron’s AMC Burbank is the top grossing movie theater in the nation at $75K-plus so far. Cowabunga.
PostTrak audiences gave Meg 2 72% in the top two boxes with a 55% recommend. South Central and South are the biggest grossing regions. Note, there’s a lot of walk-up business here like there was on the first movie from the Latino and Hispanic moviegoers who are showing up at 25% to Caucasian 41%, Black 15% and Asian American at 13%. Warners does have some PLFs for the shark being shared with the turtles accounting for 22.5% of the overall gross with another 18% coming from 3D screens. AMC Burbank is top for Meg 2 with $23K so far including previews.
Social media analytics corp RelishMix counts a social media universe for the sequel of 350.8M, 14% above genre averages next to action-adventure sci-fi titles with Jurassic World:Fallen Kingdom on the high end at 611.3M SMU. “Chatter flows positive on The Meg 2 which makes new waves as the audacious, over-the-top shark sequel, being hailed as a high-octane escape into ‘stupid-crazy-fun entertainment’ with endless positive snarky threads. The return of Jason Statham draws a splash as fans gush, ‘Looks amazing, especially with Jason Statham in this epic shark movie.'” reports RelishMix.
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FRIDAY MIDDAY: The third weekend of Warner Bros’ Barbie at $51M (-45%) is higher than the opening of the Brad Pitt action movie, Bullet Train, which did $30M during the first weekend of August. It just goes to show how far we’ve come along at the box office. The Greta Gerwig directed take on the Mattel doll is eyeing a third Friday of $16M at 4,178 theaters, -45% from a week ago. Running total by Sunday will be $457.4M.
Universal’s Oppenheimer will hold on to third place at 3,612 theaters with a $7.8M third Friday (-42%), and third weekend of $27M, -42%, sending its running total by Sunday to $226.8M. Pic is director Christopher Nolan’s fourth highest domestic besting Batman Begins and Dunkirk. It’s also the highest grossing R-rated film of 2023 domestically ahead of John Wick Chapter 4 ($187.1M). Oppenheimer also reps the fastest Universal R-rated release to cross $200M in U.S./Canada, taking 15 days. Previous R-rated $200M Uni champ was 2012’s Ted, which took 37 days to that benchmark.
Third at 3,858 theaters is Paramount/Nickelodeon/Point Grey’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem with a first Friday of $8.5M, 3-day of $27M, and 5-day of $42M, well ahead of its $30M-$40M expectations. Rotten Tomatoes audience score is 94% to go along with that A CinemaScore.
Warner Bros‘ The Meg 2: The Trench at 3,503 theaters is a seeing an $11M Friday, including previews, and a $25M opening — robust for the marketplace. Audiences are so-so on it so far at 66% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s better than the 43% the first movie notched with RT crowds.
Disney’s second weekend of The Haunted Mansion at 3,740 is seeing a second estimated Friday of $2.8M,-72%, second weekend of $9.5M, -60%, for a running total of $42.5M.
FRIDAY AM: Barbie Crosses $400M, Oppenheimer Nears $200M, Turtles 2-day $15M, Meg 2 Previews $3M+ The spoils of July are spilling over into August as Warner Bros.’ Barbie, after a $11.8M Thursday, jetted across the four-century mark at the domestic box office in her 14th day –faster than Top Gun: Maverick and Super Mario Bros Movie– with a running total of $406.4M at 4,337 locations.
She’s poised to make around $55M in her third weekend, with Oppenheimer ringing in at least another $23M+; all of this spelling for a 3-day box office marketplace that will be exceedingly well north of last year’s $92M for the first weekend of August. The Christopher Nolan-directed movie earned $5.58M yesterday at 3,647 theaters taking its two-week total to $199.86M.
Warner Bros. also has some lagniappe at the weekend box office with The Meg 2: The Trench which is expected to do between $20M-$30M. Last night from previews that began at 3PM, the shark sequel did $3.2M at 3,400 locations. That’s a pretty good result for a sequel that stars a shark: The first Jason Statham movie brought in $4M in previews before churning out a $16.6M Friday, and $45.4M opening off what was a very campy, satirical marketing campaign. The $129M costing Meg 2 has a 50% stake from China’s CMC. Critics on Rotten Tomatoes loathe the sequel at 28% worse than the first movie back in 2018 at 45%. It’s a popcorn film for the masses, not for the tweeds.
Meanwhile, Paramount/Nickelodeon/Point Grey’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem saw its 2-day box office rise to $15M. Thursday was $4.87M at 3,513, -52% from Wednesday, with the Jeff Rowe-directed animated movie ranking third for the day.
Disney’s Haunted Mansion ranked fourth on Thursday with an estimated $1.6M at 3,740, -10% from Wednesday for a first week take of $33M. The previous Eddie Murphy 2003 movie opened on a Wednesday over Thanksgiving and its first seven days grossed $35.4M (unadjusted for inflation).
Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom booked at 3,411, did $1.47M yesterday, -6%, for a running four week total of $156.4M.
A24’s horror movie Talk to Me at 2,340 theaters did an estimated $1.2M yesterday for a first week of $15.8M. Granted, this title went wide versus A24’s Bodies Bodies Bodies last summer, which platformed, but it’s great to note that this Sundance acquisition has outstripped that Pete Davidson horror comedy’s total stateside cume of $11.4M. Talk to Me‘s first seven days are also 22% ahead of Midsommar‘s which stood at $13M and finaled at $27.4M.
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