Misattributed paternity rates and non-paternity rates

1991

This is "M&S1" in the "Use" column

Sally Macintyre and Anne Sooman, "Non-paternity and prenatal genetic screening"

The Lancet, 1991, v338, Oct. 5, p. 869-871.

Although this is a relatively small meta-analysis, only about 2 pages of dense print in all, it is a useful early pilot for the surveys that follow.

Most of the sources that MG1 (Michael Gilding) cites, more than a third of those that KGA1 (Kermyt G. Anderson) cites, and about half of those cited by BHA1 (Bellis et al), were published after this article.

This article talks of "... urban folk tales ...".

Michael Gilding talks of "Urban Myth".

Steve Jones' book "Y: The Decent of Man" also talks of "urban myth".

5

30

20 - 30

1.4 & 10

2.3

6.9 - 13

"Rates of non-paternity have taken on the character of urban folk tales ... Reliable estimates of the incidence of non-paternity are few and far between, although various rates are quoted in an authoritative manner by several sources. ... if one attempts to trace the source of such estimates they often appear to be based on hearsay, anecdote or unpublished or unevaluable findings. ... non-paternity rates are likely to vary between countries, and to vary within countries by age-group, cultural or ethnic group, region, and age and duration of partnership ... It is equally important that the lack of contemporary, verifiable and relevant data is recognized. ... We would be interested to hear of any reliable data".

They cite the following estimates of non-paternity:

Johnstone examined abortion rates (in couples with compatible and incompatible blood types) in West Middlesex, UK, 1949-50. Edwards then estimated a 5% non-paternity from the sample of 2596 babies, on the basis of ABO and Rhesus markers.

30% from Dr. Elliot Philipp's remark at a 1972 symposium about a study (unfinished and unpublished, probably from the 1950s) on correlations between antibody formation and blood group.

20-30% from the (unpublished) "Liverpool Flats" study (McLaren HC).

1.4% from Schact and Gershowitz in a study of correlation between blood groups and fatal pediatric diseases for caucasians. 10.1% from Schact and Gershowitz in a study of correlation between blood groups and fatal pediatric diseases for negroes.

2.3% from Ashton's study of Hawaiian families and inherited intellect.

Salmon et al excluded 25 children in 171 families, but the number of children was not specified.

6.9-13.8% predicted by a survey of women admitting to "extra-pair copulations", in Baker & Bellis 1990.

MG1

BHA1

This is "KGA1" in the "Use" column

Kermyt G. Anderson, Department of Anthropology, University of Oklahoma
"How well does paternity confidence match actual paternity? Evidence from worldwide nonpaternity rates".

CV: Kermyt G. Anderson, Ph.D.

(An earlier page "The evidence of Kermyt G. Anderson" has now been superseded by this one).

1.9 - 3.9

30

"Men with high paternity confidence (subjects in genetic studies) have very low rates of nonpaternity (median = 1.9%, N = 22).
Men with extremely low paternity confidence (cases of disputed paternity resulting in paternity tests) have much higher levels of nonpaternity (median = 30.2%, N = 30).
When the high and unknown paternity confidence samples are combined, the median nonpaternity is 3.9% (range: 0.4 – 32.0)."

"Furthermore, the difference in nonpaternity between these groups remains when compared by geographical region (U.S., Europe, and elsewhere)".

This is "MG1" in the "Use" column

Professor Michael Gilding, Director of the Australian Centre for Emerging Technologies and Society, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, "Rampant Misattributed Paternity: the Creation of an Urban Myth", People and Place, vol 13, no 2, 2005

This study has a commentary on this web site.

1 - 3

10

20 - 28

"The best available data on paternity testing has come from the United States. That is, 28% of putative fathers were found not to be the biological father.... The largest provider ... also told a government enquiry in 2002 that the exclusion rate was about 20%, although it was less - only about 10% - for those tests that were done without the knowledge or consent of the mother".

"On the whole, the evidence suggests relatively low rates of misattributed paternity, at least in Western countries - perhaps between 1% and 3%". (This statement appears to be based on "inspection" rather than "statistics").

This is "BHA1" in the "Use" column

Mark A Bellis, Karen E Hughes, Sara K Hughes, John R Ashton, "Measuring paternal discrepancy and its public health consequences", Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Sept. 2005; vol 59: pp 749-754.

When adding this survey to this page, all 34 of the articles and papers they use for their figures were already in this table. This suggests that the list of articles and papers on this page is fairly comprehensive.

"Bellis and colleagues checked studies from the 1950s through 2002 that mentioned paternal discrepancy. The studies came from the U.K., U.S., Europe, Russia, Canada, South Africa, South America, New Zealand, and Mexico.... Some studies were large; others included a handful of people. Paternal-discrepancy estimates varied wildly, from less than 1 percent to more than 30 percent.... Some research centered on paternity disputes. Daddy discrepancies were probably overrepresented in those studies.... Setting those studies aside, the remaining research showed an average paternal discrepancy of 3.7 percent, or a little less than one in 25 dads.... Rates were higher for disadvantaged people, for those with more than one sex partner at a time, and for younger women".

"No clear population measures of paternal discrepancy are currently available"

C. Cotterman and L. Snyder, in Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1939, 34, 511-23

Reported in: Anne Anastasi, Differential Psychology, 3rd edition, 1958

Reported in Gene Expression.

".... The full incidence would be higher, because even with cuckoldry not all of the offspring of non-taster women would be tasters.... The value of p in the study population can estimated from the fact that 86 of the 800 families (10.75%) contained two non-taster parents. Since the proportion of non-tasters in the population is q-sq., the proportion of couples in which both partners are non-tasters should be q-to-the-4. This gives a value of about .573 for q and .427 for p. The full incidence of cuckoldry implied by these data is therefore 2.24%/.427 =5.25%."

Sussman, Leon N; and Schatkin, Sidney B, "Blood Grouping Tests in Undisputed Paternity Proceedings". Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 164, No. 3, pages 249-250.

18

U.S: "In the courts where paternity cases are heard, only a minority of the accused men deny paternity. This group, therefore, are the only ones who are privileged to request blood tests to sustain their denial. It has been shown that 30 to 40% of these men who deny paternity are falsely accused. In the majority of cases heard in the courts, however, the accused man admits paternity and accepts the burden of support imposed by the court. Using the A-B-O blood typing system it was found that 18% of the men who had voluntarily admitted paternity, were not the actual fathers of the children. "Blood-grouping tests … in 67 cases of uncontested paternity indicate that in 6 cases, or 9%, the men admitting paternity were not the fathers of the children they accepted. Since only 50% of wrongfully accused men can be excluded by present methods of blood testing, it follows that not 6 but actually 12 men in this small series who admitted paternity were probably not the fathers of the children in question".

KGA1

BHA1

Edwards, J. H, "A critical examination of the reputed primary influence of ABO phenotype on fertility and sex ratio", 1957. British Journal of Preventive and Social Medicine, 1957 Apr;11(2):79-89.

5.9

3.7

This appears to be based on: Johnstone J.H., "Heterospecific pregnancy", British Journal of Preventive and Social Medicine, 1954;8:117-23. Johnstone's patients were in West Middlesex (West London), U.K. (Sample: 2578).
Edwards' number has been quoted as: 5.9% by Leigh W. Simmons et al (2004); and 3.7% by KGA1 and BHA1.

KGA1

BHA1

1.4

10

Michigan, U.S.A: their numbers have been quoted as:
1.4% in a study of correlation between blood groups and fatal pediatric diseases for caucasians (1417 children);
10.1% in a study of correlation between blood groups and fatal pediatric diseases for negroes (523 children).
Higher rates of nonpaternity were found among first born and last born children.

M&S1

KGA1

BHA1

Potthoff RF, Whittinghill M. "Maximum-likelihood estimation of the proportion of nonpaternity". American Journal of Human Genetics. 1965 Nov;17(6):480-94

Detroit, U.S.A: their number has been quoted as: 0.21%.

Refers to "... a 1962-65 study of blood typing in a small Michigan town. That study found discrepancies between biological and stated parentage in 109 of 2507 nuclear familes. Many of these may have been unacknowledged adoptions, including step-parent adoptions".

Is this reference related to Schacht & Gershowitz 1963?

Unpublished, Harpending.
Cited in: Trivers, Robert L. 1972. "Parental investment and sexual selection".
In "Sexual Selection and the Descent of Man 1871-1971", B. Campbell, ed., pp. 136-179. Chicago: Aldine.

Southern Africa (!Kung). KGA1 says: "The unpublished !Kung nonpaternity rate reported in Trivers (1972) has subsequently been suggested to be due almost entirely to laboratory error, since the rate of nonmaternity in the sample was approximately the same". He cites:
Howell, Nancy. 2000. "Demography of the Dobe !Kung", Second Edition. Aldine de Gruyter: New York; and Smith, Robert L. 1984.

Peritz, Eric, and Philip F. Rust. "On the estimation of the nonpaternity rate using more than one blood-group system". American Journal of Human Genetics, January, 24(1): 46-53.

0.03

2.1

Oakford, California, U.S.A. (White, sample: 6960). Their number has been quoted as:
0.03% (sic) by Leigh W. Simmons et al (2004); 2.1% by KGA1, and 2.7% by BHA1.

KGA1

BHA1

1972 - 1973

Unpublished, research by Elliot Elias Philipp in a town in south-east England, possibly 1950s.
Mentioned in: Philipp, E.E, "Discussion: moral, social and ethical issues".

Unpublished, research in the West Isleworth area in the 1950s, unspecified researchers, cited by J H Edwards.

Both of the above appear within:

Ciba Foundation Symposium (London December 1st, 1972). (Vol. 17), G.E.W. Wostenholme and D.W. Fitzsimons (Eds.). "Law and Ethics of A.I.D. and Embryo Transfer". Amsterdam: Elsevier, Excerpta Medica, North-Holland, 1973, pp. 63-66. Associated Scientific: London.

Philipp: We blood-tested some patients in a town in south-east England, and found that 30% of the husbands could not have been the fathers of their children....
Killbrandon: Mr Philipp, surely the figure of 30% must be a minimum? What you established was that 30% could not be the children of their mother's husband, not that 70% of them were?
Philipp: Yes, it is a minimum. We were screening some female patients by testing their husbands for their blood groups, because we were interested in antibody formation in correlation with the ABO groups as well as the rhesus groups. From our results we suddenly realised that 30% of the children could not have been fathered by the men whose blood group we analysed.
Stallworthy: What was the extent of that group?
Philipp: Not large - between 200 and 300 women - but large enough to give a great shock.

M&S1

MG1

KGA1

BHA1

1975

Neel, James.V. & Weiss, Kenneth M, "The genetic structure of a tribal population, the Yanomama Indians". XIII. Biodemographic studies. American Journal of Physical Anthropology, 42, 25-51.

9% among the Brazil/Venezuela Yanomanö. (Sample: 132).

KGA1

BHA1

1977

Unpublished, McLaren, "Liverpool Flats study". (Possibly Major Hugh Cameron McLaren, 1913-1986, obstetrician).
Cited in Cohen, John, 1977. "Reproduction". London: Butterworths, ISBN: 0408707984

England (Liverpool): ... Blood group studies indicate levels of paternal discrepancy .... up to 20-30% ....

M&S1

MG1

KGA1

1979

Chagnon, N.A, "Mate Competition, Favoring Close Kin, and Village Fissioning Among the Yanomamo Indians". Excerpts and Female Centered Proto-Culture and Promiscuous Social Structures - Matrilineal Studies: Part 2. In "Evolutionary Biology and Human Social Behavior". N. Chagnon & W. Irons, eds. Pp. 98

"Using several different antigen systems we tested blood samples from parent/offspring triads and , allowing for possible errors due to mislabeling specimens, estimated that the nonpaternity level is about ten percent."

6.9 - 9.4

7.0

France - they excluded 25 children in 171 families, but the number of children may not have been specified. (BHA1 says the sample was 300).

(KGA1 gives 6.9% and 9.4%. BHA1 gives 7.0%).

KGA1

BHA1

Ashton, Geoffrey C. "Mismatches in genetic markers in a large family study". American Journal of Human Genetics 1980 Jul;32(4):601-13

M&S1

KGA1

BHA1

Lathrop, G. M., A. B. Hooper, J. W. Huntsman, and R. H. Ward, "Evaluating pedigree data. The estimation of pedigree error in the presence of marker mistyping". American Journal of Human Genetics Mar; 35:241-262

"This model allows the maximum-likelihood estimation of the rates of various forms of pedigree error and laboratory error from genetic marker data collected on putative families. The method is illustrated by applying it to data obtained from a South Pacific island population, Tokelau (administered by New Zealand). From the observed distribution of genetic marker inconsistencies between the parents and offspring of putative families, derived from the extensive genealogy of this population, we are able to estimate that the error of a paternal link is 4%, the error of a maternal link is zero, and the overall system typing error is 1%". (Sample: 1983).

Cited by: James C Barton, Luigi F Bertoli and Ronald T Acton, "HFE C282Y and H63D in adults with malignancies in a community medical oncology practice":
"In family-based studies in which HFE mutation or other DNA-based testing is not used, non-paternity is an additional source of error (1.0 – 1.4% non-paternity in American Caucasians)". Refers to this paper and Schact and Gershowitz.

1984

Smith, Robert L. 1984. "Human sperm competition".
In "Sperm Competition and the Evolution of Animal Mating Systems", Robert L. Smith (ed.), pp. 601-659. Academic Press: New York.

9

10

9% among the Venezuelan Yanomanö.

10% in U.S. (rural Michigan) - probably this.

Peñaloza, Rosenda, Carlota Núñez, Silvia Alatorre, Roberto Lagunes, Blanca García Escobar, Fabio Salamanca, and Carlos Zavala. 1986. "Frequency of illegitimacy in a sample of the Mexican population". La Revista de Investigación Clínica (Méx), 38: 287-291

KGA1

BHA1

5

8

"With all of the genetic systems used in this study, the combined probability of exclusion (CPE) of men falsely accused of paternity, in cases where the mother is absent, is approximately 95 percent for whites and 92 percent for blacks".
(This may be a theoretical study, not a real population).

Stewart, Alistair D, "Screening for cystic fibrosis". Nature Oct 26;341(6244):696.

M&S1

MG1

KGA1

BHA1

Significant number of children turn out to have be fathered by someone other than their putative father: "extramarital sex is an integral, albeit unofficial, part of the human mating system." Also, refers to "... a study of blood typing and genetics which had unexected results and was quashed. It was done in the 1940s at a "highly respectable" US hospital. The study found that fully 10 percent of babies were not the biological offspring of their legal fathers".

1.35 - 1.4

England, U.K: "We believe that cited rates of non-paternity are somewhat exaggerated, and that the truth lies closer to one per cent". They identify 7 incompatible results from 521 families, during cystic fibrosis screening, 1.35%. Their number has been quoted as:
1.4% by Anneke Lucassen et al (2001); and BHA1.
1.35% quoted by MG1 and KGA1.

MG1

KGA1

BHA1

Le Roux, Marie-Gaelle; Pascal, Oliver; David, Albert; Moisan, Jean-Paul;, Andre, Marie-Therese; Herbert, Odile. "Non-paternity and genetic counselling". Lancet. 1992 Sep 5; 340(8819):607.

France. These two articles appear to be reporting the same research.

They tested DNA markers in 89 nuclear families in France in 1992 in the course of genetic testing. Of the 362 children tested, there were 10 who could not have been the offspring of their declared fathers. (This is 2.8%).

MG1

KGA1

BHA1

KGA1

BHA1

1994

Sasse, Georg; Muller, Hansjakob; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Ott, Jurg. Department of Research, Kantonsspital, University of Basel, Switzerland, "Estimating the frequency of nonpaternity in Switzerland". Human Heredity 1994 Nov-Dec; 44(6): 337-43

Switzerland: "The methods were applied to a sample of 1,607 children and their parents. Genetic marker data were investigated to test for exclusions due to nonpaternity. Among the 1,607 children, 11 or 0.68% exclusions were found. When a constant nonpaternity rate was assumed for each child, its maximum likelihood estimate turned out to be 0.78% with asymptotic 95% confidence limits of 0.41% and 1.35%. When varying nonpaternity rates were assumed, its mean was estimated as 0.83% with asymptotic 95% confidence limits of 0.32% and 1.33%."

MG1

KGA1

BHA1

1995

Baker, R. Robin, and Mark A. Bellis, "Human Sperm Competition: Copulation, Masturbation and Infidelity". London: Chapman and Hall. (Robin Baker and Mark Bellis were at Manchester University)

1.4 - 30

9

... estimated a cross-cultural median EPC figure of 9%, with a range from 1.4 - 30%. (EPC = Extra-pair copulation).

Published estimates of 'paternal discrepancy' range from 1.4 per cent for Caucasians in post-war Michigan and 2 per cent for the !Kung bushmen to 30 per cent in deprived urban areas of Britain. pp199-200.

... a worldwide median nonpaternity rate of 9% from a sample of 10 studies.

1996

Robin Baker, book, "Sperm Wars: The Science of Sex"

1

5 - 6

10 - 30

"Some men ... have a higher chance of being deceived than others -- and it is those of low wealth and status who fare worst."

"Actual figures range from 1 percent in high-status areas of the United States and Switzerland, to 5 to 6 percent for moderate-status males in the United States and Great Britain, to 10 to 30 percent for lower-status males in the United States, Great Britain and France. Moreover, the men most likely to sexually hoodwink the lower-status males are men of higher status."

1996

Cyril Ruwende, "Host genetic factors in susceptibility to malaria and tuberculosis." PhD diss, Oxford University, Oxford.
Cited in: Cervino, A.C.L., and A.V.S. Hill (2000).

In Africa, Ruwende found 30% nonpaternity in some families.

1997

Steven J. C. Gaulin , Donald H. McBurney, Stephanie L. Brakeman-Wartell. (University of Pittsburgh), "Matrilateral Biases in the Investment of Aunts and Uncles: A Consequence and Measure of Paternity Uncertainty". Human Nature Volume 8, Number 2 (1997) pp. 139-151

13 - 20

9 - 17

".... In addition, we propose a simple method for estimating the level of paternity uncertainty from kin investment data; application of this method to our data on aunts and uncles suggests that between 13% and 20% of children are not the offspring of their putative father. Our parallel analyses of Euler and Weitzel's (1996) data on grandparental investment suggest a similar estimate, that paternity uncertainty lies between 9% and 17%". (285 college undergraduates).

Cited by "Fatherhood as a Deterrent against Female Promiscuity: A Time to Refurbish the Electra Complex", Nancy S. Coney & Wade C. Mackey:

"While the incidence of cuckoldry cum issue, which is unknown to husbands, is not zero, it appears to be close to error variance (1 % - 3% of births). (Ellis and Walsh 1997, Brock and Schrimpton 1991)."

Ricardo M. Cerda-Flores, Sara A. Barton, Luisa F. Marty-Gonzalez, Fernando Rivas, Ranajit Chakraborty, "Estimation of nonpaternity in the Mexican population of Nuevo Leon: A validation study with blood group markers". American Journal of Physical Anthropology, Volume 109, Issue 3 , Pages 281 - 293, Published Online: 1 Jul 1999

"A method for estimating the general rate of nonpaternity in a population was validated using phenotype data on seven blood groups ... on 396 mother, child, and legal father trios from Nuevo León, Mexico. In all, 32 legal fathers were excluded as the possible father based on genetic exclusions at one or more loci.... The maximum likelihood estimate of the general nonpaternity rate in the population was 0.118 ± 0.020".

"The nonpaternity rates in Nuevo León were also seen to be inversely related with the socioeconomic status of the families, i.e., the highest in the low and the lowest in the high socioeconomic class".

MG1

KGA1

BHA1

U.K. (Sample: 744).

(KGA1 says 1.59%. BHA1 says 1.6%).

KGA1

BHA1

1999

Meisner S, "The genetics of susceptibility to leprosy". PhD thesis, The Open University, Oxford.
Cited in: Cervino, A.C.L., and A.V.S. Hill (2000) .

15

32

... an estimated overall nonpaternity rate of 15.3% in the southern Indian population, and also mentions observed rates of 32% in families from Vishakapatnam.

Robin Baker "Sex in the Future: The Reproductive Revolution and How It Will Change Us". ISBN: 1559705213

2000-06-06

A. C. L. Cervino and A. V. S. Hill, The Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, "Comparison of Tests for Association and Linkage in Incomplete Families". American Journal of Human Genetics 67: 120-132.

This appears to be a theoretical study. They varied the nonpaternity rates in their models from 10% to 40%. They used other research, quoted elsewhere on this page, to arrive at those figures:
Meisner (1999). Ruwende (1996).

Sykes, Bryan and Catherine Irven. "Surnames and the Y chromosome", University of Oxford, Institute of Molecular Medicine, Oxford, electronically published March 17, 2000

MG1

KGA1

Iceland: "The Icelandic genealogical database .... By examining the genotypes of more than 20 000 Icelanders it has been estimated that the sum of laboratory error rate and the non-paternity rate is less than 1.5 percent".

2001

Anneke Lucassen, Michael Parker, "Revealing false paternity: some ethical considerations", Lancet 357 (2001), 1033-5.

Perhaps this should be classed as a meta-analysis.

"The true frequency of non-paternity is not known, but published reports suggest an incidence from as low as 1% per generation up to about 30% in the population. References [14]-[18]":
[14] Sykes B. "Surnames and the Y chromosome". American Journal of Human Genetics 2000; 66: 1417. (Suggests 1.4%).
[15] Brock DJ, Shrimpton AE. "Non-paternity and prenatal genetic screening". Lancet 1991; 338: 1151.
[16] Le Roux MG, Pascal O, David A, Moisan JP. "Non-paternity rate and screening in genetic disease analysis". Lancet 1993; 341: 57.
[17] Lincoln PJ, Syndercombe CD. "Rates of non-paternity". Lancet 1992; 340: 1108.
[18] Cerda-Flores RM, Barton SA, Marty-Gonzales LF, et al. "Estimation of non-paternity in the Mexican population of Nueva leon". American Journal of Physical Anthropology 1999; 109: 281-93.

Michael C. Neale, Benjamin M. Neale, and Patrick F. Sullivan, "Nonpaternity in Linkage Studies of Extremely Discordant Sib Pairs", American Journal of Human Genetics

Alfred, Jane, "Flagging non-paternity", Nature Reviews Genetics 3: 161.

PDF

Perhaps this should be classed as a meta-analysis.

1 - 3

30

No new material. Cites other papers, with comments:

"Estimates of incidence are wide-ranging": Lucassen & Parker (2001). MacIntyre and Sooman (1991).

"... criticised for focussing on families attending genetic counselling clinics for estimation of recurrence risks, which might have contributed to self-exclusion": Brock & Shrimpton (1991). Le Roux et al. (1992).

"These low estimates of around one to three per cent from UK laboratories carrying out pre-natal diagnosis for cystic fibrosis are probably the most accurate estimates": Mennie et al. (1993). Livingstone et al. (1994).

Iceland. "The current rate of false paternities in Iceland is relatively small, estimated at 1.49% per generation on the basis of genotype data analyzed by deCODE Genetics (this estimate includes laboratory handling error)."

This appears to come from the same source as Thorvaldur Ingvarsson 2000. The figure is much-quoted in articles about the Iceland Database.

"A review of the literature suggests that rates of extrapair paternity are in the region of 2%".

In fact, they cite papers giving values from 0.03% to 11.8%. They are the source for the figures quoted here in: Edwards 1957; Schacht & Gershowitz 1963; Potthoff & Whittinghill 1965; Peritz & Rust 1972; Ashton 1980; Brock & Shrimpton 1991; and Le Roux et al. 1992.

2004 November

Wiener, Alexander S. 1950. "Heredity of the Rh blood types. Observations in a series of 526 cases of disputed parentage". American Journal of Human Genetics Jun;2(2):177-97.

23 - 32

29

U.S. (Cleveland, OH)

(KGA1 separates these values. BHA1 merges them into 29%).

KGA1

BHA1

38

26

Sweden, blood or other markers. "The Swedish State Institute for Blood Group Serology is a central government laboratory handling all blood typing in paternity cases in Sweden, each year testing 1,500-2,000 cases using about 13 polymorphisms. Of the accused men, 35%-40% are nonfathers, but in one-man cases (about 78% of all cases), approximately 75% are the true fathers".

(KGA1 derives 38%. BHA1 derives 26%).

KGA1

BHA1

KGA1

BHA1

24

25

U.S. (Los Angeles), white. Blood or other markers. (Sample: 1393).

(KGA1 derives 24%. BHA1 derives 25%).

KGA1

BHA1

KGA1

BHA1

22 - 41

38

South Africa, 2,124 cases of doubtful paternity: White (22%). Cape Malay (30%). Cape Coloured (40%). Black (41%).

(KGA1 separates these values. BHA1 merges them into 38%).

KGA1

BHA1

KGA1

BHA1

KGA1

BHA1

37

53

KGA1

BHA1

KGA1

BHA1

1996-97

(UK) Child Support Agency, Annual Report & Accounts 1997/98, UK Child Support Agency paternity testing statistics.

"Discounted DNA Paternity Testing was introduced during 1995/96, giving alleged non-resident parents the opportunity to resolve a paternity dispute without the need to go to court. There has been a steep increase in the use of this method and , in 1996/97, nearly 90 per cent of tests proved positive". (In fact, 89%, see below).

1997-98

Hansard: letter from Mrs. Faith Boardman to Mr. Archy Kirkwood, 1998-02-18, UK Child Support Agency paternity testing statistics.

13

"In 1996/97, paternity was established in 89% of cases referred for DNA testing. In the current year, to the end of January, the figure is 87%".
(Figures for 1998-2005 are available).

37

34

Taipei: "Paternity was excluded by STR analysis in 59 (35.3 %) of the 167 cases, including 40 of the 112 trios and 19 of the 55 dues".

"Trios": mother, father, child. (40/112 = 37%).
"Dues": father, child. (19/55 = 34%).

34

37

Taipei: "... 137 disputed parentage studies. Failure to exclude an alleged paternity was noted for 60 out of 92 matching trios.... 28 out of 45 matching duos, ... were also considered as non-exclusions".

"Trios": mother, father, child. (32/92 = 34%).
"Duos": father, child. (17/45 = 37%).

Italy. "We tested 40 paternity trios, analyzed previously in our laboratory by System-1 STR, by the System-2 STR to establish the diagnostic efficiency of the latter loci for both the attribution and exclusion of paternity.... Twenty of the 40 paternity trios were attributions.... The other 20 cases were paternity exclusions". (Were they random?)

1999

American Association of Blood Banks. Annual Report Summary 1999
(PDF)

28

22

20

"The overall exclusion rate for 1999 was 28.2% for accredited labs. Exclusion rates for non-accredited US and foreign labs were slightly less at 22.7% and 20.6% respectively".

27

29

KGA1

BHA1

American Association of Blood Banks. ANNUAL REPORT SUMMARY FOR 2000 - Prepared by the Parentage Testing Standards Committee
(PDF)

27

30

The overall exclusion rate for 2000 was 27.9% for domestic accredited labs.

Rates for foreign labs were slightly higher for 2000 at 30.5%.

American Association of Blood Banks. ANNUAL REPORT SUMMARY FOR TESTING IN 2001 - Prepared by the Parentage Testing Program Unit, October 2002
(PDF)

28 - 29

Of the cases reported 90,227 were reported as exclusions or a rate of 29.06% exclusions. The average exclusion rate for the laboratories is 28.10% with a standard deviation of 7.17. The median exclusion rate is 29.25% and the mode is 27.87% with a range of 11.03 – 40.86%.

BHA1 derives 29%.

10 - 11

22 - 31

American Association of Blood Banks. ANNUAL REPORT SUMMARY FOR TESTING IN 2002 - Prepared by the Parentage Testing Program Unit - November 2003
(PDF)

Of 340,798 cases reported, 97,681 (28.70%) were reported as exclusions. The average exclusion rate for the laboratories is 27.12% with a standard deviation of 7.80. The median exclusion rate is 28.12% with a range of 3.70% to 48.10%.

18

40

"Alleged fathers who strongly suspect that they are not the biological father tend to apply for in-person testing with the suitability of the test report for use in a legal setting, whilst alleged fathers who are merely satisfying a nagging doubt over paternity, opt first for the anonymous test. That some 40% of these men are subsequently excluded from paternity may indicate the presence of a large population of children in Hong Kong whose parentage is in doubt".

Anonymous testing: 40%. In-person testing: 18.4%.

American Association of Blood Banks. ANNUAL REPORT SUMMARY FOR TESTING IN 2003 - Prepared by the Parentage Testing Standards Program Unit October 2004
(PDF)

New Zealand Law Commission, Report 88, April 2005, "New Issues in Legal Parenthood"
(PDF)

"Letter from Her Majesty's Courts Service - paternity testing"
Civil and Family Directorate
Her Majesty's Courts Service

16

14 - 19

16

6 - 23

1989

Barbara Katz Rothman, "Recreating Motherhood: Ideology and Technology in a Patriarchal Society"

5

20

"A fair percentage of us, it turns out, are not genetically related to the men we grew up with as fathers anyway. Some physicians doing tissue typing for organ donations estimate that maybe 20 percent of people are not genetically related to the men who claim fatherhood; others say it is less, perhaps as low as 5 percent".

1998-10-11

MICHAEL SCHMIDT, "DIY paternity tests raise questions - Quick genetic check makes life easy - or does it?".
The Durban Sunday Times

30

10

"A quarter of a century ago, a scientist conducting unrelated blood type research in a southern English town found about 30 percent of the children were not related to their fathers.

The Sunday Telegraph recently reported that Professor John Burns, a geneticist at Newcastle University, argued that the figure was closer to 10 percent".

1999-10-31

Brooks Egerton, " DNA tests alter legal landscape for dads - Man supports sons not biologically his".
The Dallas Morning News

30

25

33

"DNA Diagnostics Center … an industry leader, says 30 percent of the men it tests prove to be misidentified. Similar numbers come from the Texas attorney general's office, which enforces child support: About a quarter of the men who disputed paternity in the last year turned out to be right. In Florida, the proportion was one-third".

2000-01-23

Lois Rogers, Medical Correspondent, "One in seven fathers 'not the real parent'".
The Sunday Times

"David Hartshorne, spokesman for Cellmark, said that in about one case in seven, the presumed father turns out to be the wrong man".

2000-02-27

NICHOLAS WADE (THE NEW YORK TIMES), "If Anatomy Is Destiny, Then Men Can Expect Unfaithful Mates".
The Santa Barbara News-Press

10

15 - 25

"For the population as a whole, "The generic number used by us is 10 percent," said Dr. Bradley Popovich, vice president of the American College of Medical Genetics.

[15 to 25 % has been determined from blood tests of parents and offspring in Canada and the US.]"

2000-04-24

Walter H. Schneider and Candis McLean, " Pregnant on the sly - The practice of falsely attributing fatherhood is rising among women".
The REPORT Newsmagazine

10

25

"The rate of wrongful paternity in "stable monogamous marriages," according to the Max Planck Institute in Munich, Germany, ranges from one in 10 with the first child to one in four with the fourth".

2000-05-20

ALEXANDRA GILL, "Say cheese!".
The Globe and Mail

"Anecdotal evidence suggests these numbers bear out in Canada as well…. Maxxam Analytics in Guelph, Ont., performs approximately two paternity tests a day. and according to Dr. Wayne Murray, head of the human DNA department, one out of four men who come in pointing a finger at their spouse is not the biological father of the child in question".

2000-09-03

Anthony Browne, health editor, "Women are promiscuous, naturally".
The Observer

"One study followed couples waiting for NHS fertility treatment, where the men were 'azoospermic', meaning they produced no sperm and were totally infertile. The researchers found that 25 per cent of the women became pregnant before fertility treatment started".

2001-06-21

Letter to Allison Giles, Chief of Staff, U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Ways and Means.
DADS of Michigan

28

22

20

10

"However, recent data demonstrates that nearly a third of all paternity tests EXCLUDE the alleged father [4]. Additional research indicates that at least 10% of marital births EXCLUDE the husband [4]".

(In fact, the "nearly a third" are given above as "The overall exclusion rate for 1999 was 28.2% for accredited labs. Exclusion rates for non-accredited US and foreign labs were slightly less at 22.7% and 20.6% respectively". The source of "at least 10%" is not given).

[4]: Annual Report Summary 1999: American Association of Blood Banks

2002-08-30

"Getting Human Nature Right", A Talk With Helena Cronin.
Edge 73

"And it turns out that misattributed paternity is as minimal as 1% among very high-status American males but up to 30% among unemployed, deprived, inner-city males."

1-

"In Utah, or at least in the families at the heart of the various genetics studies over the years, the rate of "nonpaternity," as it is called, is less than 1 percent, private industry researchers and University of Utah scientists say. "They stick to their knitting," said Mark Skolnick, the chief scientist at Myriad Genetic Inc."

Greg Callaghan, "Whose Baby? - Who's your Daddy?".
The Australian Magazine, quoted on Men's Rights Agency web site.

10

25

30

TIM HUME. "DNA tests show 1 in 3 dads duped".
Sunday Star Times. (New Zealand).

30

3 - 20

10 - 20

"DNA Solutions ... says it tests about 15 kiwi men a month. In 30 per cent of cases, the samples did not match - meaning the man was not the child's father.

"The 30 per cent mark is higher than New Zealand's estimates of "misattributed paternity".... That estimate ranges from 3 per cent to 20 per cent.

"Stuart Birks, director of Massey University's Centre for Public Policy Evaluation, said low-income men were more likely to be raising someone else's child without knowing it. Nationally, a rate of 10 per cent is highly likely, it could be as high as 20 per cent".